Opinion Poll by Norstat, 9–15 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Høyre 25.0% 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.8–24.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.5% 17.0–20.1% 16.6–20.6% 16.2–21.0% 15.5–21.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.2–13.6% 9.9–14.0% 9.4–14.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Venstre 4.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 43–49 42–50 41–51 40–54
Høyre 45 37 33–40 33–41 32–42 31–44
Senterpartiet 19 35 31–37 30–39 30–39 28–41
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–24 18–25 17–25 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–15 10–16 9–17
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 2–11 1–11 1–12
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 0–8
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.2% 99.8%  
41 2% 98.5%  
42 5% 96%  
43 5% 91%  
44 13% 86%  
45 18% 73%  
46 18% 54% Median
47 10% 37%  
48 10% 26%  
49 7% 16% Last Result
50 5% 10%  
51 3% 5%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.4% 1.4%  
54 0.9% 1.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.1% 99.9%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 7% 97%  
34 6% 90%  
35 11% 84%  
36 19% 72%  
37 13% 53% Median
38 14% 40%  
39 9% 26%  
40 9% 17%  
41 4% 8%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.9%  
45 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 1.1% 99.2%  
30 3% 98%  
31 5% 95%  
32 6% 90%  
33 8% 84%  
34 20% 76%  
35 30% 56% Median
36 13% 26%  
37 4% 13%  
38 3% 9%  
39 4% 6%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.8%  
17 3% 99.3%  
18 7% 96%  
19 15% 89%  
20 19% 74%  
21 15% 55% Median
22 13% 40%  
23 13% 27%  
24 9% 14%  
25 3% 5%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 5% 99.2%  
11 15% 94% Last Result
12 23% 78%  
13 27% 56% Median
14 16% 29%  
15 8% 12%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.5% 0.7%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 15% 99.8%  
3 0% 84%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0% 84%  
6 0% 84%  
7 12% 84%  
8 33% 72% Median
9 21% 40%  
10 13% 19%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.5% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 9% 96%  
3 13% 87%  
4 0% 74%  
5 0% 74%  
6 0% 74%  
7 10% 74%  
8 27% 64% Median
9 17% 37%  
10 12% 20%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 28% 98.9%  
2 66% 71% Median
3 0.1% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 61% 83% Median
2 10% 22%  
3 10% 11%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 1.2% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 108 100% 103–112 102–113 101–114 99–116
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 102 100% 97–106 96–107 95–108 93–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 101 100% 96–104 95–105 94–107 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 101 100% 95–105 94–106 93–107 91–109
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 96 100% 91–100 90–101 90–102 87–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 93 99.0% 89–97 88–99 86–100 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 89 87% 84–93 83–94 82–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 82 20% 77–86 76–88 75–88 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 80 11% 76–85 75–86 74–87 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 68 0% 64–74 63–75 62–76 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 61 0% 57–66 56–67 55–68 53–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 60 0% 56–64 55–66 54–66 52–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 52–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 58 0% 54–62 53–64 52–64 50–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 40 0% 36–43 36–45 35–46 34–48
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 37 0% 34–42 33–42 32–44 30–46

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.7%  
100 0.9% 99.3%  
101 1.1% 98%  
102 3% 97%  
103 6% 94%  
104 4% 89%  
105 7% 84%  
106 7% 77%  
107 14% 70%  
108 13% 56%  
109 8% 43%  
110 11% 35% Median
111 11% 24%  
112 7% 13%  
113 3% 5%  
114 1.1% 3%  
115 0.9% 2%  
116 0.5% 0.6%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.2% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.7%  
93 0.9% 99.5%  
94 0.7% 98.7%  
95 2% 98%  
96 3% 96%  
97 8% 93%  
98 7% 85%  
99 6% 79%  
100 7% 73%  
101 10% 66%  
102 18% 56%  
103 7% 38% Median
104 15% 31%  
105 6% 16%  
106 4% 10%  
107 3% 6%  
108 1.3% 3%  
109 1.2% 2%  
110 0.4% 0.9%  
111 0.3% 0.5%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.3% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.6%  
92 1.0% 99.4%  
93 0.7% 98%  
94 2% 98%  
95 5% 96%  
96 3% 90%  
97 12% 87%  
98 4% 76%  
99 8% 72%  
100 11% 63%  
101 18% 52%  
102 6% 34% Median
103 12% 28%  
104 7% 16%  
105 4% 9%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.3% 3%  
108 1.2% 2%  
109 0.4% 0.8%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.7% 99.7%  
92 1.0% 99.0%  
93 2% 98%  
94 4% 96%  
95 3% 92%  
96 3% 89%  
97 6% 87%  
98 6% 81%  
99 5% 75%  
100 15% 70%  
101 8% 55%  
102 6% 47% Median
103 13% 40%  
104 13% 27%  
105 7% 14%  
106 3% 7%  
107 3% 5%  
108 0.8% 2%  
109 1.0% 1.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.8%  
88 0.5% 99.5%  
89 1.0% 98.9%  
90 4% 98%  
91 5% 94%  
92 7% 89%  
93 9% 82%  
94 7% 73%  
95 14% 66%  
96 12% 52% Median
97 13% 40%  
98 9% 27%  
99 8% 18%  
100 3% 10%  
101 3% 7%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.1% 2%  
104 0.6% 1.3%  
105 0.6% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.7% 99.6%  
85 0.4% 99.0% Majority
86 2% 98.5%  
87 1.3% 97%  
88 3% 95%  
89 5% 93%  
90 5% 88%  
91 11% 83%  
92 14% 72%  
93 12% 58%  
94 12% 46% Median
95 12% 34%  
96 7% 22%  
97 6% 15%  
98 3% 9%  
99 2% 6%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.1% 2%  
102 1.0% 1.3%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.6%  
81 1.2% 99.3%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 7% 94%  
85 5% 87% Majority
86 7% 82%  
87 7% 75%  
88 11% 68%  
89 15% 57%  
90 10% 42% Median
91 12% 32%  
92 8% 20%  
93 2% 11%  
94 4% 9%  
95 2% 5%  
96 1.5% 3%  
97 0.6% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 1.0% 99.6%  
74 0.9% 98.7%  
75 3% 98%  
76 2% 95% Last Result
77 3% 93%  
78 4% 90%  
79 7% 86%  
80 14% 79%  
81 13% 65%  
82 11% 52% Median
83 13% 41%  
84 7% 27%  
85 6% 20% Majority
86 6% 14%  
87 3% 8%  
88 3% 5%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.5%  
73 0.5% 98.8%  
74 3% 98%  
75 2% 96%  
76 4% 94%  
77 3% 90%  
78 9% 86%  
79 15% 77%  
80 15% 62%  
81 12% 46% Median
82 8% 35%  
83 9% 27%  
84 7% 18%  
85 4% 11% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.5% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 1.0% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 98.9%  
62 3% 98%  
63 3% 95%  
64 7% 93%  
65 13% 86%  
66 13% 73%  
67 6% 60%  
68 8% 53%  
69 15% 45% Median
70 5% 30%  
71 6% 25%  
72 6% 19%  
73 3% 13%  
74 3% 11%  
75 4% 8%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.0%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.4%  
55 1.1% 98%  
56 3% 97%  
57 7% 95%  
58 11% 87%  
59 11% 76%  
60 8% 65%  
61 13% 57% Median
62 14% 44%  
63 7% 30%  
64 7% 23%  
65 4% 16%  
66 6% 11%  
67 3% 6%  
68 1.1% 3%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.9%  
53 1.1% 99.3%  
54 2% 98%  
55 3% 96%  
56 7% 94%  
57 13% 87%  
58 12% 74%  
59 11% 62%  
60 9% 51% Median
61 11% 42%  
62 8% 30%  
63 6% 22%  
64 7% 16%  
65 4% 9%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.9% 1.4%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.9% 99.7%  
53 2% 98.8%  
54 2% 97%  
55 8% 94%  
56 6% 87%  
57 18% 81%  
58 15% 63%  
59 10% 48% Median
60 14% 38% Last Result
61 8% 24%  
62 5% 16%  
63 6% 11%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.3% 3%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.1%  
68 0.7% 0.7%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 1.2% 99.3%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 3% 97%  
54 6% 94%  
55 12% 88%  
56 13% 76%  
57 9% 63%  
58 14% 55% Median
59 12% 41%  
60 7% 29%  
61 6% 22%  
62 6% 15%  
63 3% 9%  
64 4% 6%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.3%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.1% 99.7%  
35 2% 98.6%  
36 7% 96%  
37 8% 90%  
38 11% 82%  
39 15% 71%  
40 13% 56% Median
41 14% 43%  
42 9% 29%  
43 10% 20%  
44 3% 10%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 3%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 1.1% 99.4%  
32 2% 98%  
33 2% 96%  
34 7% 95%  
35 4% 88% Last Result
36 12% 84%  
37 23% 71%  
38 17% 48% Median
39 8% 32%  
40 10% 24%  
41 3% 14%  
42 5% 10%  
43 2% 5%  
44 1.2% 3%  
45 0.8% 1.4%  
46 0.3% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations