Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 16–18 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.4% 21.4–25.5% 20.9–26.1% 20.4–26.6% 19.5–27.6%
Høyre 25.0% 22.1% 20.2–24.2% 19.7–24.8% 19.2–25.3% 18.4–26.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.9% 14.2–17.7% 13.8–18.2% 13.4–18.7% 12.6–19.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.3% 9.9–12.9% 9.5–13.4% 9.2–13.8% 8.5–14.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.5% 7.3–10.0% 7.0–10.4% 6.7–10.8% 6.1–11.5%
Rødt 2.4% 5.8% 4.9–7.1% 4.6–7.5% 4.3–7.8% 3.9–8.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6% 3.6–6.9% 3.2–7.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%
Venstre 4.4% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.3% 1.5–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–51
Høyre 45 39 36–43 34–44 33–44 32–47
Senterpartiet 19 29 26–34 24–34 24–35 22–38
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 17–23 16–25 16–25 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–18 12–18 11–19 11–20
Rødt 1 10 9–12 8–13 8–14 2–15
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–10 2–11 2–12 1–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 1–7 0–7 0–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.8% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.7%  
38 3% 97%  
39 4% 93%  
40 15% 89%  
41 13% 74%  
42 16% 61% Median
43 14% 44%  
44 12% 30%  
45 4% 18%  
46 7% 14%  
47 5% 7%  
48 0.8% 3%  
49 0.8% 2% Last Result
50 0.5% 1.1%  
51 0.4% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.2%  
34 3% 97%  
35 4% 95%  
36 7% 90%  
37 14% 84%  
38 12% 70%  
39 16% 58% Median
40 8% 42%  
41 10% 35%  
42 11% 25%  
43 6% 13%  
44 5% 8%  
45 0.7% 2% Last Result
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.5%  
49 0.4% 0.4%  
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.4% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 3% 98%  
25 4% 95%  
26 18% 91%  
27 4% 72%  
28 9% 68%  
29 11% 59% Median
30 14% 47%  
31 5% 33%  
32 10% 28%  
33 7% 18%  
34 7% 11%  
35 2% 4%  
36 0.9% 2%  
37 0.7% 2%  
38 0.8% 0.9%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 1.0% 99.6%  
16 5% 98.7%  
17 9% 94%  
18 14% 85%  
19 18% 71%  
20 11% 53% Median
21 15% 42%  
22 8% 27%  
23 10% 19%  
24 3% 9%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.9% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.5% Last Result
12 6% 97%  
13 16% 92%  
14 20% 76%  
15 22% 56% Median
16 13% 33%  
17 9% 20%  
18 7% 11%  
19 2% 3%  
20 1.1% 1.5%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.5% 100%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 0% 99.5%  
7 1.4% 99.5%  
8 6% 98%  
9 21% 92%  
10 26% 71% Median
11 21% 45%  
12 15% 23%  
13 5% 8%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.8% 1.0%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 4% 98%  
3 1.0% 94%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 14% 93%  
8 24% 79%  
9 21% 55% Median
10 24% 34%  
11 6% 10%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.4% 0.6%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 47% 95% Median
2 15% 48%  
3 14% 32%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0.6% 19%  
7 14% 18%  
8 4% 5% Last Result
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 38% 96%  
2 54% 59% Median
3 0.1% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 3% 4%  
8 1.1% 1.3% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 105 100% 100–111 99–113 98–113 96–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 98 99.8% 93–102 91–103 90–105 87–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 97 99.9% 92–103 90–105 90–105 88–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.6% 89–100 88–102 87–102 85–104
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 94 98% 87–97 86–99 85–100 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 66% 82–92 79–94 79–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 31% 78–87 76–89 75–90 71–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.5% 70–79 68–81 67–82 64–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 72 0% 67–76 66–79 65–80 63–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 72 0.1% 66–77 64–79 64–79 63–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 64 0% 58–69 56–70 56–71 55–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 56–66 55–67 54–68 52–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 59 0% 54–65 53–65 52–66 50–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–61 52–63 51–64 50–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 43 0% 39–48 38–50 37–51 35–53
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–39 28–40 27–42 26–46

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.8%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 1.1% 99.3%  
98 1.0% 98%  
99 6% 97%  
100 4% 92%  
101 6% 87%  
102 7% 82%  
103 6% 75%  
104 18% 69%  
105 4% 51% Median
106 9% 47%  
107 6% 38%  
108 6% 32%  
109 8% 25%  
110 3% 17%  
111 7% 15%  
112 2% 7%  
113 4% 5%  
114 1.1% 1.4%  
115 0.1% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.8% Majority
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.6% 99.7%  
88 0.8% 99.2% Last Result
89 0.3% 98%  
90 1.0% 98%  
91 3% 97%  
92 2% 94%  
93 9% 92%  
94 5% 83%  
95 11% 79%  
96 10% 68% Median
97 8% 58%  
98 6% 51%  
99 10% 44%  
100 8% 34%  
101 15% 26%  
102 2% 11%  
103 5% 9%  
104 1.2% 4%  
105 0.9% 3%  
106 1.0% 2%  
107 0.6% 1.2%  
108 0.4% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 1.2% 99.3%  
90 5% 98%  
91 2% 93%  
92 8% 91%  
93 5% 83%  
94 10% 78%  
95 9% 69%  
96 7% 60% Median
97 11% 53%  
98 7% 42%  
99 5% 35%  
100 8% 29%  
101 8% 21%  
102 2% 13%  
103 2% 11%  
104 4% 9%  
105 4% 5%  
106 0.6% 1.0%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.6% Majority
86 0.9% 99.1%  
87 1.0% 98%  
88 5% 97%  
89 3% 93%  
90 3% 89%  
91 4% 86%  
92 10% 82%  
93 5% 72%  
94 13% 67%  
95 10% 54% Median
96 7% 44%  
97 9% 37%  
98 7% 29%  
99 9% 22%  
100 5% 13%  
101 2% 8%  
102 4% 6%  
103 0.9% 2%  
104 0.5% 1.0%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 1.1% 99.5%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 5% 96%  
87 3% 91%  
88 2% 89%  
89 2% 86%  
90 10% 85%  
91 7% 75% Median
92 8% 68%  
93 9% 60%  
94 16% 51%  
95 12% 35%  
96 9% 23%  
97 5% 14%  
98 4% 9%  
99 3% 6%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.5% 1.2%  
102 0.4% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.7% 99.4%  
79 5% 98.7% Last Result
80 2% 94%  
81 2% 92%  
82 7% 90%  
83 7% 83%  
84 10% 76%  
85 3% 66% Majority
86 12% 63% Median
87 14% 51%  
88 4% 37%  
89 10% 33%  
90 6% 23%  
91 6% 17%  
92 3% 11%  
93 3% 8%  
94 4% 5%  
95 0.9% 2%  
96 0.4% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 0.1% 99.1%  
73 0.8% 99.0%  
74 0.6% 98%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 4% 95% Last Result
78 6% 91%  
79 3% 85%  
80 9% 81%  
81 9% 72% Median
82 12% 63%  
83 11% 51%  
84 9% 40%  
85 6% 31% Majority
86 12% 25%  
87 4% 13%  
88 2% 9%  
89 3% 7%  
90 1.5% 4%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.0%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 1.0% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96%  
69 1.3% 92%  
70 10% 91%  
71 9% 80%  
72 4% 71% Median
73 13% 67%  
74 8% 54%  
75 13% 46%  
76 5% 33% Last Result
77 5% 28%  
78 6% 23%  
79 8% 17%  
80 2% 9%  
81 4% 7%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.7% 1.2%  
85 0.1% 0.5% Majority
86 0.4% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 1.0% 99.6%  
64 1.1% 98.6%  
65 2% 98%  
66 6% 96%  
67 7% 90%  
68 4% 84% Last Result
69 9% 79%  
70 11% 70%  
71 5% 60% Median
72 17% 55%  
73 8% 38%  
74 8% 30%  
75 5% 22%  
76 7% 17%  
77 3% 10%  
78 2% 7%  
79 1.3% 5%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.5% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 4% 99.0%  
65 4% 95%  
66 2% 91%  
67 2% 89%  
68 9% 87%  
69 8% 78%  
70 5% 70%  
71 7% 65% Median
72 11% 58%  
73 7% 47%  
74 8% 40%  
75 10% 31%  
76 4% 22%  
77 8% 17%  
78 2% 9%  
79 5% 7%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 1.1% 99.7%  
56 4% 98.6%  
57 2% 95%  
58 7% 92%  
59 3% 85%  
60 8% 83%  
61 6% 74%  
62 6% 68% Median
63 9% 62%  
64 4% 53%  
65 18% 49%  
66 6% 31%  
67 7% 25%  
68 6% 18%  
69 4% 13%  
70 5% 8%  
71 1.0% 3%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.7% 99.7%  
53 0.4% 99.0%  
54 1.2% 98.6%  
55 6% 97%  
56 3% 92%  
57 6% 89%  
58 15% 83%  
59 7% 68%  
60 7% 61%  
61 5% 54% Median
62 11% 49%  
63 8% 38%  
64 11% 30%  
65 5% 19%  
66 7% 14%  
67 4% 7%  
68 1.3% 3%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.5% 1.0%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 1.1% 99.3%  
52 1.1% 98%  
53 4% 97%  
54 4% 93%  
55 4% 89%  
56 11% 86%  
57 13% 74%  
58 6% 61%  
59 7% 55% Median
60 7% 48%  
61 11% 41%  
62 7% 30%  
63 8% 23%  
64 5% 15%  
65 6% 10%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 99.6%  
51 2% 98.6%  
52 2% 97%  
53 7% 95%  
54 9% 88%  
55 6% 79%  
56 11% 73%  
57 20% 62% Median
58 14% 42%  
59 6% 28%  
60 7% 22% Last Result
61 6% 15%  
62 2% 9%  
63 2% 7%  
64 3% 5%  
65 0.4% 1.5%  
66 0.6% 1.1%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 1.0% 99.5%  
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 96%  
39 4% 93%  
40 10% 89%  
41 7% 79%  
42 16% 72% Median
43 8% 56%  
44 10% 48%  
45 6% 38%  
46 14% 32%  
47 4% 18%  
48 4% 14%  
49 2% 10%  
50 5% 8%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.9% 1.4%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.7%  
27 2% 98.8%  
28 3% 97%  
29 12% 95%  
30 8% 83%  
31 12% 75%  
32 6% 63% Median
33 7% 57%  
34 9% 50%  
35 11% 41% Last Result
36 4% 30%  
37 9% 26%  
38 3% 17%  
39 8% 14%  
40 2% 6%  
41 1.4% 4%  
42 1.1% 3%  
43 0.3% 2%  
44 0.4% 1.2%  
45 0.2% 0.8%  
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations