Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 7–8 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet | 27.4% | 26.7% | 24.7–28.8% | 24.2–29.4% | 23.7–29.9% | 22.8–30.9% |
| Høyre | 25.0% | 21.3% | 19.5–23.3% | 19.0–23.8% | 18.5–24.3% | 17.7–25.3% |
| Senterpartiet | 10.3% | 16.5% | 14.9–18.4% | 14.5–18.9% | 14.1–19.3% | 13.4–20.2% |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 15.2% | 10.9% | 9.6–12.5% | 9.2–12.9% | 8.9–13.3% | 8.3–14.1% |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2–7.4% | 4.9–7.8% | 4.7–8.1% | 4.2–8.7% |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.4–6.4% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.9–7.1% | 3.5–7.7% |
| Rødt | 2.4% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.9% | 3.7–6.2% | 3.5–6.5% | 3.1–7.1% |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| Venstre | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.6% | 1.6–3.8% | 1.3–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet | 49 | 48 | 45–53 | 44–54 | 43–56 | 42–58 |
| Høyre | 45 | 37 | 34–40 | 33–42 | 33–43 | 31–45 |
| Senterpartiet | 19 | 32 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 26–36 | 24–37 |
| Fremskrittspartiet | 27 | 20 | 17–23 | 16–23 | 16–24 | 14–26 |
| Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 11 | 11 | 9–13 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 7–16 |
| Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 1 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 3–12 | 2–13 |
| Rødt | 1 | 8 | 2–10 | 2–11 | 2–11 | 2–12 |
| Kristelig Folkeparti | 8 | 2 | 1–7 | 1–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| Venstre | 8 | 2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–7 |
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 44 | 7% | 97% | |
| 45 | 10% | 90% | |
| 46 | 12% | 80% | |
| 47 | 10% | 68% | |
| 48 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 49 | 11% | 41% | Last Result |
| 50 | 6% | 30% | |
| 51 | 9% | 23% | |
| 52 | 4% | 15% | |
| 53 | 4% | 11% | |
| 54 | 2% | 6% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 9% | 95% | |
| 35 | 10% | 86% | |
| 36 | 15% | 76% | |
| 37 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 38 | 15% | 44% | |
| 39 | 15% | 29% | |
| 40 | 7% | 14% | |
| 41 | 3% | 8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 5% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 5% | 94% | |
| 28 | 9% | 89% | |
| 29 | 11% | 80% | |
| 30 | 9% | 69% | |
| 31 | 5% | 60% | |
| 32 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 33 | 13% | 45% | |
| 34 | 23% | 32% | |
| 35 | 6% | 9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 16 | 3% | 98% | |
| 17 | 7% | 95% | |
| 18 | 12% | 87% | |
| 19 | 12% | 76% | |
| 20 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 21 | 17% | 44% | |
| 22 | 17% | 28% | |
| 23 | 6% | 10% | |
| 24 | 3% | 5% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 14% | 94% | |
| 10 | 22% | 81% | |
| 11 | 27% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 12 | 15% | 32% | |
| 13 | 10% | 18% | |
| 14 | 6% | 8% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 5 | 0% | 96% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 7 | 4% | 96% | |
| 8 | 20% | 91% | |
| 9 | 31% | 71% | Median |
| 10 | 21% | 40% | |
| 11 | 11% | 19% | |
| 12 | 6% | 8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 15% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 4 | 0% | 85% | |
| 5 | 0% | 85% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 7 | 17% | 84% | |
| 8 | 30% | 67% | Median |
| 9 | 19% | 37% | |
| 10 | 10% | 19% | |
| 11 | 6% | 8% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 45% | 97% | |
| 2 | 16% | 52% | Median |
| 3 | 24% | 36% | |
| 4 | 0% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 7 | 9% | 12% | |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 19% | 93% | |
| 2 | 72% | 74% | Median |
| 3 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt | 81 | 107 | 100% | 103–112 | 101–113 | 100–114 | 96–116 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 88 | 102 | 100% | 97–106 | 96–108 | 95–109 | 92–111 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne | 80 | 100 | 100% | 95–104 | 94–106 | 92–107 | 90–109 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt | 80 | 98 | 99.9% | 93–103 | 92–104 | 91–105 | 88–107 |
| Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 107 | 93 | 97% | 88–97 | 86–98 | 84–99 | 82–102 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti | 77 | 91 | 97% | 87–96 | 86–97 | 84–98 | 82–100 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 79 | 90 | 95% | 86–95 | 85–96 | 83–98 | 81–99 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti | 76 | 82 | 26% | 78–86 | 77–88 | 75–89 | 73–90 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet | 68 | 80 | 7% | 76–83 | 74–85 | 73–86 | 71–88 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt | 62 | 76 | 2% | 71–81 | 70–83 | 69–84 | 66–86 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 89 | 71 | 0% | 65–75 | 65–77 | 64–78 | 60–81 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 88 | 61 | 0% | 57–66 | 56–67 | 55–68 | 52–72 |
| Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti | 60 | 59 | 0% | 55–63 | 54–65 | 53–67 | 52–69 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre | 80 | 59 | 0% | 55–63 | 54–64 | 53–66 | 50–69 |
| Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet | 72 | 57 | 0% | 53–61 | 52–63 | 51–64 | 49–67 |
| Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 61 | 41 | 0% | 38–45 | 37–47 | 36–48 | 35–51 |
| Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre | 35 | 36 | 0% | 31–39 | 30–41 | 29–43 | 27–45 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0.5% | 98.9% | |
| 99 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 100 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 101 | 2% | 97% | |
| 102 | 3% | 95% | |
| 103 | 5% | 91% | |
| 104 | 9% | 87% | |
| 105 | 11% | 78% | |
| 106 | 8% | 67% | |
| 107 | 12% | 59% | |
| 108 | 10% | 47% | Median |
| 109 | 10% | 37% | |
| 110 | 12% | 28% | |
| 111 | 5% | 16% | |
| 112 | 4% | 11% | |
| 113 | 5% | 7% | |
| 114 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 93 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 95 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 96 | 3% | 97% | |
| 97 | 4% | 94% | |
| 98 | 9% | 90% | |
| 99 | 7% | 81% | |
| 100 | 11% | 75% | |
| 101 | 12% | 64% | |
| 102 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 103 | 8% | 47% | |
| 104 | 14% | 39% | |
| 105 | 7% | 25% | |
| 106 | 8% | 18% | |
| 107 | 3% | 9% | |
| 108 | 2% | 6% | |
| 109 | 3% | 4% | |
| 110 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 92 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 93 | 2% | 97% | |
| 94 | 2% | 95% | |
| 95 | 4% | 94% | |
| 96 | 7% | 89% | |
| 97 | 12% | 82% | |
| 98 | 8% | 69% | |
| 99 | 10% | 61% | |
| 100 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 101 | 8% | 39% | |
| 102 | 11% | 31% | |
| 103 | 6% | 21% | |
| 104 | 6% | 15% | |
| 105 | 3% | 9% | |
| 106 | 2% | 6% | |
| 107 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 108 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98% | |
| 92 | 3% | 96% | |
| 93 | 4% | 93% | |
| 94 | 5% | 90% | |
| 95 | 6% | 84% | |
| 96 | 12% | 78% | |
| 97 | 11% | 66% | |
| 98 | 12% | 55% | |
| 99 | 6% | 44% | Median |
| 100 | 8% | 37% | |
| 101 | 12% | 29% | |
| 102 | 6% | 17% | |
| 103 | 3% | 10% | |
| 104 | 5% | 8% | |
| 105 | 2% | 3% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 83 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 84 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 85 | 1.2% | 97% | Majority |
| 86 | 3% | 96% | |
| 87 | 2% | 93% | |
| 88 | 4% | 91% | |
| 89 | 5% | 87% | |
| 90 | 7% | 82% | |
| 91 | 7% | 75% | |
| 92 | 11% | 68% | |
| 93 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 94 | 10% | 40% | |
| 95 | 7% | 30% | |
| 96 | 5% | 23% | |
| 97 | 8% | 18% | |
| 98 | 5% | 9% | |
| 99 | 2% | 5% | |
| 100 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 85 | 2% | 97% | Majority |
| 86 | 5% | 96% | |
| 87 | 9% | 91% | |
| 88 | 7% | 81% | |
| 89 | 8% | 74% | |
| 90 | 9% | 66% | |
| 91 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 92 | 8% | 45% | |
| 93 | 10% | 37% | |
| 94 | 10% | 27% | |
| 95 | 6% | 17% | |
| 96 | 3% | 11% | |
| 97 | 4% | 8% | |
| 98 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 99 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 84 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 85 | 3% | 95% | Majority |
| 86 | 5% | 93% | |
| 87 | 4% | 88% | |
| 88 | 12% | 84% | |
| 89 | 12% | 72% | |
| 90 | 13% | 61% | |
| 91 | 8% | 47% | Median |
| 92 | 8% | 39% | |
| 93 | 12% | 31% | |
| 94 | 7% | 19% | |
| 95 | 4% | 12% | |
| 96 | 4% | 8% | |
| 97 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 98 | 2% | 3% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 74 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 77 | 4% | 95% | |
| 78 | 10% | 91% | |
| 79 | 7% | 81% | |
| 80 | 8% | 74% | |
| 81 | 13% | 66% | |
| 82 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 83 | 8% | 43% | |
| 84 | 8% | 35% | |
| 85 | 6% | 26% | Majority |
| 86 | 11% | 20% | |
| 87 | 4% | 9% | |
| 88 | 2% | 6% | |
| 89 | 3% | 4% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 72 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 2% | 96% | |
| 75 | 3% | 94% | |
| 76 | 5% | 91% | |
| 77 | 12% | 85% | |
| 78 | 9% | 74% | |
| 79 | 13% | 64% | |
| 80 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 81 | 8% | 37% | |
| 82 | 8% | 30% | |
| 83 | 12% | 21% | |
| 84 | 3% | 10% | |
| 85 | 4% | 7% | Majority |
| 86 | 2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 88 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 69 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 3% | 96% | |
| 71 | 5% | 93% | |
| 72 | 9% | 88% | |
| 73 | 5% | 79% | |
| 74 | 8% | 74% | |
| 75 | 10% | 66% | |
| 76 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 77 | 10% | 39% | |
| 78 | 7% | 29% | |
| 79 | 7% | 23% | |
| 80 | 5% | 15% | |
| 81 | 3% | 11% | |
| 82 | 2% | 7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 5% | |
| 84 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 2% | Majority |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 98.6% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98% | |
| 65 | 5% | 95% | |
| 66 | 3% | 90% | |
| 67 | 6% | 87% | |
| 68 | 13% | 80% | |
| 69 | 8% | 67% | |
| 70 | 7% | 59% | Median |
| 71 | 11% | 52% | |
| 72 | 11% | 41% | |
| 73 | 11% | 30% | |
| 74 | 6% | 19% | |
| 75 | 5% | 13% | |
| 76 | 3% | 9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 5% | 96% | |
| 57 | 4% | 91% | |
| 58 | 6% | 87% | |
| 59 | 12% | 81% | |
| 60 | 10% | 69% | |
| 61 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 62 | 12% | 49% | |
| 63 | 7% | 37% | |
| 64 | 11% | 30% | |
| 65 | 8% | 19% | |
| 66 | 4% | 11% | |
| 67 | 3% | 7% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | |
| 55 | 8% | 93% | |
| 56 | 8% | 85% | |
| 57 | 8% | 77% | |
| 58 | 9% | 69% | |
| 59 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 60 | 11% | 44% | Last Result |
| 61 | 10% | 33% | |
| 62 | 8% | 22% | |
| 63 | 6% | 15% | |
| 64 | 3% | 9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 6% | |
| 66 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98% | |
| 54 | 4% | 96% | |
| 55 | 7% | 92% | |
| 56 | 10% | 85% | |
| 57 | 9% | 75% | |
| 58 | 12% | 67% | |
| 59 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 60 | 11% | 44% | |
| 61 | 10% | 33% | |
| 62 | 6% | 24% | |
| 63 | 10% | 17% | |
| 64 | 3% | 8% | |
| 65 | 2% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 3% | 97% | |
| 53 | 5% | 94% | |
| 54 | 12% | 89% | |
| 55 | 8% | 77% | |
| 56 | 13% | 69% | |
| 57 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 58 | 8% | 46% | |
| 59 | 14% | 38% | |
| 60 | 6% | 24% | |
| 61 | 9% | 18% | |
| 62 | 4% | 9% | |
| 63 | 2% | 5% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98% | |
| 37 | 5% | 96% | |
| 38 | 7% | 91% | |
| 39 | 12% | 84% | |
| 40 | 13% | 72% | |
| 41 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 44% | |
| 43 | 7% | 29% | |
| 44 | 8% | 22% | |
| 45 | 6% | 15% | |
| 46 | 3% | 9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 5% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98% | |
| 30 | 6% | 96% | |
| 31 | 8% | 90% | |
| 32 | 10% | 83% | |
| 33 | 7% | 73% | |
| 34 | 3% | 66% | |
| 35 | 6% | 63% | Last Result |
| 36 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 37 | 13% | 46% | |
| 38 | 18% | 34% | |
| 39 | 6% | 15% | |
| 40 | 2% | 9% | |
| 41 | 3% | 7% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norfakta
- Commissioner(s): Klassekampen and Nationen
- Fieldwork period: 7–8 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 780
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.21%