Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 21 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.3% 23.2–27.6% 22.6–28.3% 22.1–28.8% 21.1–29.9%
Høyre 25.0% 20.5% 18.5–22.6% 18.0–23.2% 17.5–23.8% 16.6–24.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.7% 13.0–16.6% 12.5–17.2% 12.1–17.6% 11.4–18.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.5% 12.9–16.5% 12.4–17.0% 12.0–17.5% 11.2–18.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.6% 5.5–8.0% 5.2–8.4% 4.9–8.8% 4.4–9.5%
Rødt 2.4% 5.2% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.7–7.2% 3.3–7.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 5.2% 4.2–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.7–7.2% 3.3–7.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9% 2.3–5.2% 2.0–5.7%
Venstre 4.4% 2.2% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.4% 1.3–3.6% 1.1–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–49 40–50 39–53 38–54
Høyre 45 36 34–41 32–42 31–44 29–44
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 24–30 22–31 21–32 20–34
Senterpartiet 19 25 22–30 21–31 21–32 20–34
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 10–15 9–15 8–15 7–17
Rødt 1 9 7–11 2–12 2–13 2–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 9 7–11 3–12 3–13 2–14
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.4% 99.6%  
39 3% 99.2%  
40 3% 97%  
41 5% 94%  
42 22% 89%  
43 9% 67%  
44 13% 58% Median
45 4% 45%  
46 17% 40%  
47 7% 24%  
48 6% 17%  
49 2% 11% Last Result
50 4% 9%  
51 1.2% 5%  
52 0.6% 4%  
53 1.4% 3%  
54 1.2% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.6%  
30 1.3% 98.9%  
31 2% 98%  
32 2% 95%  
33 3% 93%  
34 10% 90%  
35 26% 80%  
36 5% 54% Median
37 16% 49%  
38 8% 32%  
39 11% 24%  
40 2% 13%  
41 3% 11%  
42 5% 8%  
43 0.9% 4%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 1.0% 99.8%  
21 2% 98.7%  
22 2% 97%  
23 4% 94%  
24 9% 90%  
25 20% 81%  
26 6% 62%  
27 16% 55% Last Result, Median
28 21% 40%  
29 7% 19%  
30 6% 12%  
31 3% 6%  
32 1.3% 3%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
20 0.7% 99.7%  
21 4% 99.0%  
22 5% 95%  
23 8% 90%  
24 13% 81%  
25 26% 68% Median
26 9% 42%  
27 9% 34%  
28 7% 24%  
29 7% 18%  
30 4% 11%  
31 3% 7%  
32 2% 4%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.3% 99.8%  
8 3% 99.5%  
9 6% 97%  
10 17% 90%  
11 34% 74% Last Result, Median
12 12% 40%  
13 13% 28%  
14 4% 14%  
15 8% 10%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 8% 99.9%  
3 0% 91%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 0.5% 91%  
7 6% 91%  
8 27% 85%  
9 17% 58% Median
10 21% 42%  
11 14% 21%  
12 4% 7%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.7%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 0.6% 99.6%  
3 5% 99.0%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0.4% 94%  
7 5% 94%  
8 23% 88% Last Result
9 20% 66% Median
10 9% 46%  
11 27% 37%  
12 5% 10%  
13 2% 4%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 21% 99.6% Last Result
2 31% 79% Median
3 4% 48%  
4 0.7% 44%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0.5% 43%  
7 27% 43%  
8 13% 16%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 25% 88%  
2 62% 63% Median
3 0.5% 1.5%  
4 0% 1.0%  
5 0% 1.0%  
6 0.1% 1.0%  
7 0.6% 0.9%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 99.9% 94–105 92–106 90–108 87–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 95 99.8% 90–101 89–103 88–104 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 94 99.8% 90–100 88–103 87–104 85–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 95% 86–97 85–99 84–100 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 86 71% 81–92 79–94 78–96 77–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 84 44% 79–89 77–91 77–92 74–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 30% 78–88 76–90 75–92 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 13% 76–85 74–87 73–88 69–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 79 4% 72–83 70–84 68–85 66–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 75 0.1% 69–79 66–81 65–82 61–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 66–75 66–78 64–80 63–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 65 0% 60–70 58–71 56–72 54–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 63 0% 58–68 56–70 54–71 53–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 53–62 51–63 50–65 49–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 48 0% 43–52 41–53 39–57 37–57
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 33–41 31–43 30–44 27–45

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.2% 99.5%  
88 0.9% 99.3%  
89 0.5% 98%  
90 1.1% 98%  
91 1.0% 97%  
92 2% 96%  
93 4% 94%  
94 0.8% 90%  
95 8% 90%  
96 9% 82%  
97 3% 73%  
98 6% 70%  
99 5% 65% Median
100 7% 60%  
101 20% 53%  
102 7% 34%  
103 4% 27%  
104 8% 22%  
105 8% 14%  
106 2% 6%  
107 2% 5% Last Result
108 2% 3%  
109 0.7% 0.9%  
110 0% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.5% 99.8%  
87 1.3% 99.2%  
88 2% 98% Last Result
89 2% 96%  
90 6% 94%  
91 3% 88% Median
92 7% 85%  
93 7% 78%  
94 9% 71%  
95 15% 63%  
96 17% 48%  
97 5% 31%  
98 7% 26%  
99 5% 19%  
100 3% 14%  
101 3% 11%  
102 2% 8%  
103 3% 6%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.8%  
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.4% 99.8% Majority
86 2% 99.4%  
87 1.1% 98%  
88 5% 97%  
89 1.2% 91%  
90 5% 90%  
91 5% 86% Median
92 8% 81%  
93 16% 73%  
94 9% 57%  
95 4% 49%  
96 10% 45%  
97 6% 35%  
98 13% 28%  
99 4% 15%  
100 3% 11%  
101 2% 8%  
102 2% 7%  
103 1.3% 5%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.4% 2%  
106 0.7% 2%  
107 0.4% 0.9%  
108 0.5% 0.6%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.7% 99.6%  
83 1.1% 98.8%  
84 3% 98%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 21% 93%  
87 3% 72%  
88 10% 69%  
89 6% 59% Median
90 6% 53%  
91 10% 48%  
92 3% 38%  
93 7% 35%  
94 2% 28%  
95 5% 26%  
96 9% 21%  
97 3% 12%  
98 3% 9%  
99 2% 6%  
100 1.3% 4%  
101 1.2% 2%  
102 0.7% 1.2%  
103 0.3% 0.5%  
104 0% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.7%  
78 1.2% 98%  
79 3% 97%  
80 1.3% 94% Last Result
81 4% 93%  
82 9% 88% Median
83 2% 80%  
84 7% 78%  
85 21% 71% Majority
86 10% 50%  
87 10% 40%  
88 4% 30%  
89 7% 26%  
90 6% 19%  
91 3% 13%  
92 3% 10%  
93 1.2% 7%  
94 3% 6%  
95 1.0% 4%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.2% 1.2%  
98 0.7% 1.0%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.5% 99.4%  
76 1.3% 98.8%  
77 4% 98% Last Result
78 1.2% 94%  
79 5% 93%  
80 9% 88% Median
81 9% 80%  
82 8% 71%  
83 6% 63%  
84 14% 58%  
85 17% 44% Majority
86 5% 27%  
87 4% 21%  
88 6% 17%  
89 4% 11%  
90 2% 7%  
91 2% 5%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.4% 1.3%  
95 0.6% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.9% 99.7%  
75 3% 98.8%  
76 1.4% 96%  
77 4% 95%  
78 24% 91%  
79 7% 67% Last Result
80 5% 60% Median
81 6% 55%  
82 5% 49%  
83 11% 45%  
84 3% 33%  
85 9% 30% Majority
86 7% 21%  
87 2% 14%  
88 4% 12%  
89 2% 8%  
90 1.1% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.3% 3%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 1.3% 1.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.5%  
71 0.4% 99.2%  
72 0.3% 98.7%  
73 1.5% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 4% 94%  
76 12% 90% Last Result
77 4% 78%  
78 23% 74% Median
79 9% 51%  
80 7% 42%  
81 6% 35%  
82 3% 29%  
83 7% 25%  
84 5% 18%  
85 4% 13% Majority
86 2% 9%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.4%  
68 1.3% 98.8%  
69 2% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 3% 94%  
72 3% 91%  
73 9% 88%  
74 5% 78%  
75 2% 73%  
76 7% 71% Median
77 3% 65%  
78 10% 62%  
79 6% 51%  
80 6% 46%  
81 10% 39%  
82 3% 30%  
83 21% 27%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.7% 1.1%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.4%  
63 0.8% 99.0%  
64 0.5% 98%  
65 2% 98%  
66 1.5% 96%  
67 2% 95%  
68 2% 93%  
69 3% 91%  
70 4% 88%  
71 13% 84%  
72 7% 71%  
73 10% 64%  
74 4% 54% Median
75 9% 50%  
76 16% 41%  
77 8% 26%  
78 4% 18%  
79 5% 14%  
80 1.2% 9%  
81 5% 8%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 3% 99.3%  
65 1.3% 97%  
66 7% 95%  
67 22% 89%  
68 10% 67% Last Result
69 3% 56% Median
70 10% 53%  
71 6% 43%  
72 6% 37%  
73 12% 31%  
74 4% 20%  
75 6% 16%  
76 2% 10%  
77 0.9% 8%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.4% 3%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.7% 99.7%  
55 1.2% 99.0%  
56 2% 98%  
57 1.0% 96%  
58 1.1% 95%  
59 4% 94%  
60 3% 90%  
61 2% 87%  
62 6% 85%  
63 13% 79%  
64 12% 66%  
65 18% 54% Median
66 7% 36%  
67 7% 29%  
68 5% 22%  
69 2% 17%  
70 9% 15%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.5% 1.1%  
74 0.4% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.2%  
55 1.3% 97%  
56 2% 96%  
57 2% 95%  
58 3% 93%  
59 4% 90%  
60 5% 86%  
61 6% 81%  
62 19% 75%  
63 18% 56% Median
64 7% 39%  
65 9% 31%  
66 4% 23%  
67 2% 19%  
68 9% 17%  
69 2% 8%  
70 3% 6%  
71 0.5% 3%  
72 2% 2% Last Result
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 3% 99.2%  
51 2% 96%  
52 3% 94%  
53 28% 91%  
54 4% 62%  
55 12% 58% Median
56 5% 47%  
57 8% 42%  
58 7% 34%  
59 6% 26%  
60 2% 20% Last Result
61 8% 18%  
62 3% 10%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 5%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.5% 1.4%  
67 0.5% 0.9%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 0.6% 99.2%  
39 1.2% 98.5%  
40 1.5% 97%  
41 2% 96%  
42 3% 94%  
43 3% 91%  
44 4% 88%  
45 8% 83%  
46 14% 75%  
47 6% 60% Median
48 27% 54%  
49 4% 27%  
50 6% 23%  
51 3% 17%  
52 8% 15%  
53 2% 7%  
54 0.5% 4%  
55 0.3% 4%  
56 0.9% 3%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.8%  
28 0.4% 99.4%  
29 0.8% 98.9%  
30 1.0% 98%  
31 3% 97%  
32 3% 94%  
33 8% 91%  
34 11% 83%  
35 12% 72% Last Result
36 10% 60% Median
37 7% 50%  
38 18% 42%  
39 7% 25%  
40 6% 18%  
41 3% 12%  
42 2% 9%  
43 3% 6%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.5% 1.0%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations