Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 20–21 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.2% 23.6–26.9% 23.2–27.4% 22.8–27.8% 22.1–28.6%
Høyre 25.0% 20.9% 19.4–22.5% 19.0–22.9% 18.7–23.3% 18.0–24.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.8% 13.5–16.2% 13.2–16.6% 12.9–16.9% 12.3–17.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.2% 13.0–15.6% 12.6–16.0% 12.3–16.3% 11.8–17.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.2% 4.4–6.1% 4.2–6.4% 4.0–6.6% 3.7–7.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.9% 2.9–5.1% 2.6–5.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.4% 2.1–4.8%
Venstre 4.4% 3.1% 2.6–3.9% 2.4–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.0–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 44–49 43–49 42–49 40–51
Høyre 45 37 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–44
Senterpartiet 19 27 25–30 23–31 23–33 22–33
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–29 23–29 22–30 21–32
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 10–16 10–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–10 8–11 8–12 3–13
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 0–8 0–8
Venstre 8 2 2–3 2–7 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.4% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.5%  
41 0.4% 99.1%  
42 1.2% 98.7%  
43 5% 97%  
44 15% 93%  
45 11% 77%  
46 7% 66%  
47 43% 59% Median
48 6% 16%  
49 8% 10% Last Result
50 0.7% 2%  
51 1.3% 2%  
52 0.1% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.4%  
34 2% 97%  
35 6% 95%  
36 30% 89%  
37 15% 59% Median
38 20% 44%  
39 5% 24%  
40 10% 19%  
41 6% 9%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.6% 1.2%  
44 0.2% 0.5%  
45 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.2% 99.8%  
23 4% 98.6%  
24 2% 95%  
25 12% 93%  
26 9% 81%  
27 23% 72% Median
28 27% 49%  
29 7% 22%  
30 7% 15%  
31 4% 8%  
32 0.9% 4%  
33 3% 3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.8%  
21 1.4% 99.8%  
22 3% 98%  
23 3% 95%  
24 11% 92%  
25 23% 81%  
26 12% 58% Median
27 14% 46% Last Result
28 6% 32%  
29 22% 26%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.2% 1.1%  
32 0.9% 0.9%  
33 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 15% 99.7%  
11 4% 85% Last Result
12 42% 81% Median
13 19% 39%  
14 11% 20%  
15 5% 9%  
16 2% 4%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.4% 100%  
3 1.2% 99.6%  
4 0.1% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0.4% 98%  
8 22% 98%  
9 26% 76%  
10 42% 51% Median
11 4% 9%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100% Last Result
2 58% 94% Median
3 0% 35%  
4 0% 35%  
5 0% 35%  
6 0.1% 35%  
7 17% 35%  
8 15% 18%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 15% 97%  
2 7% 82%  
3 59% 75% Median
4 0% 16%  
5 0% 16%  
6 0% 16%  
7 6% 16%  
8 9% 10% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 4% 99.9%  
2 71% 96% Median
3 15% 25%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 6% 10%  
8 4% 4% Last Result
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 100% 95–103 94–104 92–106 92–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 100% 95–102 94–103 92–105 90–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 96 99.9% 91–99 89–99 89–102 87–102
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 98 100% 92–101 90–101 89–102 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 96% 87–94 85–95 83–95 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 72% 83–89 80–89 80–93 77–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 77% 81–90 81–90 79–91 77–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 79 4% 75–82 74–84 74–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 0.1% 73–80 71–80 71–82 68–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0% 70–76 69–77 68–77 65–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 70 0% 66–74 65–75 63–77 61–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 66 0% 62–70 61–72 59–73 59–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 64 0% 60–67 59–67 57–69 56–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 56–62 55–63 54–64 51–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 42 0% 40–49 39–50 39–50 37–52
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 30–37 27–38 27–38 25–39

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.3% 99.9%  
92 2% 99.6%  
93 0.5% 97%  
94 3% 97%  
95 6% 94%  
96 3% 88%  
97 10% 85%  
98 7% 75% Median
99 25% 68%  
100 16% 44%  
101 11% 28%  
102 1.1% 17%  
103 6% 16%  
104 5% 10%  
105 0.7% 4%  
106 3% 4%  
107 0.3% 0.8%  
108 0.3% 0.5%  
109 0.2% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0% 99.8% Last Result
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.9% 99.8%  
91 1.3% 98.9%  
92 0.5% 98%  
93 0.6% 97%  
94 2% 96%  
95 9% 95%  
96 14% 86%  
97 6% 72%  
98 15% 66%  
99 6% 51% Median
100 21% 45%  
101 10% 24%  
102 6% 14%  
103 3% 8%  
104 0.9% 4%  
105 3% 4%  
106 0.1% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.7% 99.6%  
88 1.2% 98.9%  
89 3% 98%  
90 3% 95%  
91 3% 92%  
92 3% 89%  
93 15% 86%  
94 6% 71%  
95 12% 65%  
96 10% 53% Median
97 24% 43%  
98 7% 19%  
99 8% 12%  
100 0.4% 4%  
101 0.9% 3%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.9%  
88 1.1% 99.5%  
89 3% 98%  
90 0.8% 96%  
91 0.9% 95%  
92 5% 94%  
93 4% 89%  
94 3% 85%  
95 0.9% 83% Median
96 16% 82%  
97 10% 66%  
98 31% 55%  
99 5% 24%  
100 6% 19%  
101 8% 13%  
102 4% 5%  
103 0.4% 1.2%  
104 0.2% 0.8%  
105 0.5% 0.7%  
106 0% 0.2%  
107 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.5% 100%  
82 2% 99.5%  
83 0.2% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 3% 93%  
87 6% 91%  
88 3% 85% Median
89 32% 82%  
90 8% 50%  
91 21% 42%  
92 4% 21%  
93 5% 17%  
94 8% 13%  
95 3% 5%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.2% 0.8%  
99 0.4% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.7% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.3%  
79 1.0% 99.0% Last Result
80 3% 98%  
81 2% 95%  
82 2% 93%  
83 4% 91%  
84 15% 86%  
85 6% 72% Majority
86 11% 65% Median
87 33% 54%  
88 9% 22%  
89 8% 13%  
90 1.0% 5%  
91 1.1% 4%  
92 0.2% 3%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.8%  
76 0% 99.8%  
77 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
78 0.7% 99.3%  
79 1.5% 98.6%  
80 1.4% 97%  
81 6% 96%  
82 5% 90%  
83 4% 85%  
84 4% 81%  
85 10% 77% Majority
86 18% 67%  
87 4% 49% Median
88 28% 45%  
89 6% 17%  
90 7% 11%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.4% 1.1%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.1% 0.4%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.2% 99.3%  
72 0.8% 99.2%  
73 0.6% 98%  
74 3% 98%  
75 8% 95%  
76 5% 87%  
77 4% 82%  
78 21% 78% Median
79 8% 57%  
80 32% 49%  
81 3% 17%  
82 6% 14%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 0.2% 3%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.5%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.6% 99.2%  
70 1.0% 98.7%  
71 3% 98%  
72 3% 95%  
73 6% 91%  
74 3% 86%  
75 7% 83%  
76 6% 76% Last Result
77 23% 70% Median
78 26% 47%  
79 7% 21%  
80 9% 14%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.2% 3%  
83 0.7% 1.3%  
84 0.5% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.7% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.3%  
67 1.0% 98.7%  
68 2% 98% Last Result
69 3% 96%  
70 3% 93%  
71 8% 90%  
72 9% 81%  
73 6% 72%  
74 25% 66% Median
75 28% 41%  
76 3% 13%  
77 8% 10%  
78 0.5% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.1%  
80 0.1% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.7%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 3% 99.2%  
64 0.7% 96%  
65 5% 96%  
66 6% 90%  
67 1.1% 84%  
68 11% 83% Median
69 16% 71%  
70 25% 55%  
71 7% 31%  
72 10% 24%  
73 3% 14%  
74 6% 11%  
75 2% 5%  
76 0.4% 3%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.6%  
59 2% 99.6%  
60 2% 97%  
61 0.5% 95%  
62 6% 95%  
63 4% 88%  
64 5% 84%  
65 7% 79% Median
66 24% 72%  
67 21% 49%  
68 3% 27%  
69 12% 24%  
70 2% 12%  
71 4% 9%  
72 2% 6%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.6%  
57 2% 99.4%  
58 2% 97%  
59 1.1% 95%  
60 6% 94%  
61 5% 87%  
62 7% 82%  
63 22% 76% Median
64 9% 53%  
65 23% 45%  
66 6% 21%  
67 11% 15%  
68 0.8% 5%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.0% 1.3%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.3% Last Result
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.8%  
52 0.1% 99.4%  
53 1.4% 99.3%  
54 1.0% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 9% 94%  
57 18% 85%  
58 4% 66%  
59 39% 62% Median
60 7% 23% Last Result
61 4% 17%  
62 8% 13%  
63 2% 5%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 0.7% 99.3%  
39 6% 98.5%  
40 3% 92%  
41 28% 89%  
42 13% 61% Median
43 3% 48%  
44 14% 45%  
45 9% 31%  
46 8% 23%  
47 4% 15%  
48 0.4% 11%  
49 5% 10%  
50 5% 6%  
51 0.7% 1.3%  
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.3% 99.8%  
26 0.6% 98%  
27 3% 98%  
28 0.9% 95%  
29 3% 94%  
30 10% 90%  
31 0.9% 80%  
32 2% 79% Median
33 35% 77%  
34 5% 42%  
35 19% 38% Last Result
36 6% 19%  
37 7% 13%  
38 5% 6%  
39 0.7% 1.1%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations