Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 20–22 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.9% 24.0–28.1% 23.4–28.7% 22.9–29.2% 22.0–30.2%
Høyre 25.0% 19.7% 17.9–21.6% 17.4–22.2% 17.0–22.7% 16.2–23.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 16.4% 14.7–18.2% 14.3–18.7% 13.9–19.2% 13.1–20.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.7% 14.1–17.5% 13.6–18.0% 13.3–18.5% 12.5–19.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.9% 4.9–7.1% 4.6–7.5% 4.4–7.8% 4.0–8.4%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.8% 2.6–6.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.2% 1.6–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 44–52 43–53 42–53 40–56
Høyre 45 36 32–41 31–41 31–42 29–43
Senterpartiet 19 30 28–33 27–34 26–34 24–37
Fremskrittspartiet 27 29 25–31 25–33 24–33 23–35
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 8–14 8–14 3–15
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Venstre 8 3 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 1–3 0–3 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 0.7% 99.1%  
42 3% 98%  
43 4% 96%  
44 5% 92%  
45 12% 87%  
46 15% 75%  
47 12% 60% Median
48 9% 48%  
49 11% 39% Last Result
50 6% 28%  
51 9% 22%  
52 5% 13%  
53 6% 8%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.6% 1.4%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 1.0% 99.3%  
31 4% 98%  
32 7% 95%  
33 7% 88%  
34 17% 81%  
35 6% 64%  
36 11% 58% Median
37 11% 47%  
38 8% 36%  
39 6% 28%  
40 9% 22%  
41 8% 12%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.6%  
25 1.2% 98.8%  
26 2% 98%  
27 5% 96%  
28 7% 91%  
29 14% 84%  
30 21% 70% Median
31 16% 49%  
32 14% 32%  
33 10% 19%  
34 7% 9%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.6% 1.2%  
37 0.2% 0.6%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.6% 99.7%  
24 3% 99.1%  
25 7% 96%  
26 9% 89%  
27 10% 80% Last Result
28 10% 70%  
29 17% 60% Median
30 19% 43%  
31 15% 24%  
32 3% 9%  
33 3% 5%  
34 0.9% 2%  
35 1.0% 1.3%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 0.3% 99.5%  
4 0% 99.2%  
5 0% 99.2%  
6 0% 99.2%  
7 0.6% 99.2%  
8 5% 98.6%  
9 12% 94%  
10 27% 82%  
11 20% 55% Last Result, Median
12 18% 35%  
13 10% 17%  
14 6% 7%  
15 0.8% 1.1%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100% Last Result
2 44% 98.7%  
3 0% 55%  
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 0% 55%  
7 9% 55% Median
8 29% 46%  
9 9% 16%  
10 5% 7%  
11 1.5% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 49% 99.1%  
3 11% 50% Median
4 0.4% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 0% 39%  
7 9% 39%  
8 15% 30% Last Result
9 11% 15%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 18% 99.9% Last Result
2 46% 82% Median
3 19% 36%  
4 2% 18%  
5 0% 16%  
6 0% 16%  
7 3% 16%  
8 8% 13%  
9 3% 5%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 53% 92% Median
2 14% 38%  
3 19% 24%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 3% 5%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 102 100% 96–106 95–108 94–109 91–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 97 99.9% 93–103 91–105 90–105 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 94 99.3% 90–100 88–102 87–102 84–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 94 99.0% 89–99 87–100 86–102 83–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 92 98% 87–97 86–98 85–100 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 89 88% 84–94 83–96 81–97 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 35% 78–88 77–89 75–91 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 80 10% 75–84 74–86 73–87 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 78 3% 74–83 72–84 71–85 68–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 74 0.7% 69–79 67–81 67–82 64–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 72 0.1% 66–76 64–78 64–79 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 64–75 62–76 62–78 60–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 60–70 59–72 58–72 56–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 54–64 53–64 52–66 50–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 43 0% 38–47 36–49 35–51 34–53
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 36 0% 32–42 31–43 31–43 28–47

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.6%  
92 0.3% 99.2%  
93 0.8% 99.0%  
94 1.1% 98%  
95 3% 97%  
96 4% 94%  
97 5% 90%  
98 4% 85%  
99 6% 81% Median
100 9% 75%  
101 11% 67%  
102 11% 55%  
103 10% 44%  
104 4% 34%  
105 8% 30%  
106 13% 22%  
107 2% 9% Last Result
108 3% 7%  
109 2% 4%  
110 0.8% 2%  
111 0.2% 0.7%  
112 0.1% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.4%  
114 0.2% 0.2%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 1.1% 99.4%  
89 0.6% 98%  
90 2% 98%  
91 1.3% 95%  
92 2% 94%  
93 8% 92%  
94 7% 84%  
95 9% 77%  
96 7% 68%  
97 12% 61% Median
98 9% 49%  
99 7% 40%  
100 13% 32%  
101 4% 19%  
102 4% 15%  
103 4% 12%  
104 1.4% 8%  
105 5% 7%  
106 0.7% 2%  
107 0.6% 1.1%  
108 0.3% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.5%  
85 0.6% 99.3% Majority
86 1.1% 98.7%  
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 96%  
89 3% 93%  
90 2% 90%  
91 10% 88%  
92 7% 77%  
93 10% 70%  
94 10% 60%  
95 13% 50% Median
96 5% 37%  
97 8% 32%  
98 10% 23%  
99 4% 14%  
100 4% 10%  
101 0.9% 6%  
102 3% 6%  
103 1.1% 2%  
104 0.3% 1.0%  
105 0.5% 0.8%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.5% 99.5%  
85 0.6% 99.0% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 3% 95% Last Result
89 8% 92%  
90 5% 84%  
91 6% 79% Median
92 7% 72%  
93 11% 65%  
94 14% 54%  
95 7% 40%  
96 7% 33%  
97 7% 26%  
98 5% 19%  
99 8% 14%  
100 2% 6%  
101 2% 5%  
102 1.2% 3%  
103 0.8% 2%  
104 0.3% 0.8%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.7% 99.7%  
83 0.5% 98.9%  
84 0.6% 98%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 4% 96%  
87 4% 92%  
88 9% 88%  
89 6% 79%  
90 6% 73% Median
91 12% 67%  
92 14% 55%  
93 6% 41%  
94 6% 35%  
95 9% 29%  
96 6% 21%  
97 5% 14%  
98 4% 9%  
99 1.3% 5%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.4% 0.9%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
80 1.0% 99.2%  
81 1.0% 98%  
82 1.0% 97%  
83 4% 96%  
84 4% 92%  
85 5% 88% Majority
86 10% 82%  
87 9% 73%  
88 4% 64% Median
89 15% 60%  
90 12% 44%  
91 5% 33%  
92 8% 28%  
93 9% 20%  
94 5% 12%  
95 1.2% 7%  
96 2% 6%  
97 3% 4%  
98 0.7% 1.3%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.5% 99.6%  
74 1.0% 99.1%  
75 1.1% 98%  
76 1.3% 97%  
77 2% 96% Last Result
78 4% 93%  
79 7% 89%  
80 7% 82% Median
81 10% 76%  
82 12% 66%  
83 10% 54%  
84 8% 43%  
85 12% 35% Majority
86 8% 23%  
87 3% 15%  
88 3% 12%  
89 4% 9%  
90 1.4% 4%  
91 1.1% 3%  
92 0.7% 2%  
93 0.6% 1.1%  
94 0.1% 0.5%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.4%  
72 0.8% 98.7%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 3% 92%  
76 6% 89% Last Result
77 6% 83%  
78 12% 77% Median
79 10% 65%  
80 12% 55%  
81 8% 42%  
82 7% 34%  
83 10% 27%  
84 8% 17%  
85 2% 10% Majority
86 4% 7%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
69 0.7% 99.5%  
70 0.7% 98.8%  
71 1.3% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 4% 94%  
74 5% 90%  
75 7% 86%  
76 8% 78%  
77 17% 71% Median
78 9% 54%  
79 10% 45%  
80 9% 35%  
81 6% 26%  
82 6% 20%  
83 7% 14%  
84 3% 7%  
85 1.2% 3% Majority
86 1.4% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.7%  
65 0.3% 99.2%  
66 1.1% 98.9%  
67 3% 98%  
68 0.9% 94%  
69 4% 93%  
70 4% 90%  
71 10% 86% Median
72 8% 76%  
73 5% 68%  
74 13% 63%  
75 10% 50%  
76 10% 39%  
77 7% 30%  
78 10% 22%  
79 2% 12%  
80 3% 10%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.2%  
85 0.2% 0.7% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.6% 99.5%  
63 0.8% 98.9%  
64 5% 98%  
65 1.5% 93%  
66 4% 92%  
67 4% 88%  
68 4% 84%  
69 13% 81% Median
70 8% 67%  
71 9% 60%  
72 12% 51%  
73 7% 39%  
74 9% 32%  
75 7% 23%  
76 8% 15%  
77 2% 7%  
78 1.2% 6%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.5% 2%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.6%  
61 1.3% 99.2%  
62 3% 98%  
63 2% 94%  
64 2% 92%  
65 5% 90%  
66 5% 85%  
67 8% 80%  
68 12% 72% Median
69 9% 60%  
70 9% 52%  
71 10% 43%  
72 6% 33%  
73 12% 26%  
74 4% 15%  
75 4% 11%  
76 1.3% 6%  
77 1.3% 5%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.6% 2%  
80 0.4% 1.0% Last Result
81 0.5% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.7%  
57 0.9% 99.2%  
58 3% 98%  
59 2% 95%  
60 7% 93%  
61 9% 86%  
62 6% 77%  
63 8% 71%  
64 10% 63%  
65 6% 53% Median
66 7% 47%  
67 8% 39%  
68 7% 31%  
69 5% 24%  
70 9% 19%  
71 4% 9%  
72 4% 6% Last Result
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 1.4% 99.3%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 3% 93%  
55 11% 89%  
56 10% 78%  
57 8% 68%  
58 10% 61% Median
59 15% 51%  
60 5% 36% Last Result
61 12% 31%  
62 4% 19%  
63 4% 15%  
64 7% 11%  
65 2% 5%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.5% 0.9%  
68 0.1% 0.5%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 0.7% 99.5%  
35 2% 98.8%  
36 2% 97%  
37 2% 95%  
38 7% 93%  
39 5% 86%  
40 10% 81% Median
41 7% 71%  
42 10% 64%  
43 12% 54%  
44 12% 42%  
45 9% 29%  
46 11% 21%  
47 2% 10%  
48 2% 8%  
49 2% 6%  
50 0.7% 4%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.6% 1.2%  
53 0.4% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 0.5% 99.3%  
30 1.3% 98.8%  
31 3% 98%  
32 8% 95%  
33 6% 87%  
34 11% 81% Median
35 9% 70% Last Result
36 11% 61%  
37 10% 50%  
38 7% 40%  
39 8% 33%  
40 3% 24%  
41 10% 22%  
42 7% 12%  
43 3% 5%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.6% 2%  
46 0.4% 1.0%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations