Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 24–27 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.6% 23.9–27.5% 23.4–28.0% 23.0–28.4% 22.2–29.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 17.6% 16.1–19.2% 15.7–19.7% 15.3–20.1% 14.7–20.9%
Høyre 25.0% 16.2% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.0–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.5% 11.3–13.9% 10.9–14.4% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.7% 6.8–8.9% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.8–10.2%
Rødt 2.4% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
Venstre 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 44–50 43–50 42–52 41–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 32 29–35 28–35 28–36 26–37
Høyre 45 28 26–32 25–33 24–34 23–35
Senterpartiet 19 22 20–26 19–26 19–26 18–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Rødt 1 12 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.9% 99.7%  
42 2% 98.8%  
43 6% 97%  
44 20% 91%  
45 19% 71%  
46 10% 52% Median
47 12% 42%  
48 10% 30%  
49 6% 20% Last Result
50 9% 14%  
51 1.3% 5%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.8% 1.5%  
54 0.5% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.1% Last Result
28 6% 98%  
29 9% 92%  
30 14% 83%  
31 19% 69%  
32 16% 50% Median
33 12% 35%  
34 7% 23%  
35 11% 16%  
36 3% 5%  
37 1.3% 2%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.7%  
24 2% 98.8%  
25 2% 97%  
26 14% 95%  
27 14% 81%  
28 19% 67% Median
29 12% 47%  
30 13% 35%  
31 8% 22%  
32 8% 15%  
33 3% 7%  
34 3% 4%  
35 1.1% 1.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 6% 98% Last Result
20 17% 92%  
21 12% 75%  
22 17% 63% Median
23 18% 47%  
24 10% 29%  
25 6% 19%  
26 11% 13%  
27 1.3% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.7%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.0% 99.8%  
11 6% 98.8% Last Result
12 15% 93%  
13 21% 78%  
14 29% 57% Median
15 17% 29%  
16 8% 12%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.6% 0.9%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.3% 99.8%  
10 6% 98%  
11 22% 93%  
12 33% 71% Median
13 21% 37%  
14 9% 16%  
15 6% 8%  
16 1.2% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 6% 99.9%  
3 0.9% 94%  
4 1.1% 94%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0% 92%  
7 7% 92%  
8 33% 85%  
9 29% 52% Median
10 15% 23%  
11 7% 8%  
12 0.7% 1.0%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 6% 95%  
3 53% 89% Median
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0.1% 36%  
7 12% 36%  
8 18% 24% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 40% 68% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 103 100% 98–108 97–108 95–110 94–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 95 100% 91–99 90–101 89–102 87–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 94 99.9% 90–99 89–100 87–102 86–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 95% 86–96 85–96 83–97 82–99
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 88 85% 84–92 84–94 82–95 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 27% 78–87 77–87 76–89 75–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 81 26% 77–86 76–87 75–89 73–91
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 75 0.1% 70–79 69–80 67–82 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0.3% 69–78 68–79 67–80 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 65–73 64–74 63–75 62–77
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 66 0% 61–70 61–72 59–74 58–75
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre 80 62 0% 58–65 57–67 55–67 53–69
Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre 72 61 0% 56–65 56–65 54–66 52–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 57–64 56–65 55–65 54–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 34 0% 30–38 30–40 29–41 27–43
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 24–32 23–34 23–35 21–36

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.9% 99.7%  
95 2% 98.7%  
96 1.3% 97%  
97 2% 95%  
98 4% 93%  
99 4% 89%  
100 7% 85%  
101 15% 78%  
102 9% 63%  
103 10% 55% Median
104 15% 45%  
105 4% 29%  
106 3% 25%  
107 10% 22%  
108 8% 12%  
109 1.0% 4%  
110 2% 3%  
111 0.7% 1.1%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.2% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.5% 99.6%  
88 0.9% 99.1% Last Result
89 2% 98%  
90 3% 96%  
91 6% 94%  
92 9% 87%  
93 12% 79%  
94 8% 66% Median
95 10% 59%  
96 11% 48%  
97 9% 38%  
98 12% 29%  
99 9% 17%  
100 3% 8%  
101 2% 6%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.9% 1.4%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.5% 99.7%  
87 2% 99.2%  
88 2% 97%  
89 2% 95%  
90 4% 93%  
91 5% 89%  
92 16% 84%  
93 8% 69%  
94 14% 61% Median
95 9% 47%  
96 8% 38%  
97 9% 31%  
98 4% 22%  
99 12% 18%  
100 2% 7%  
101 1.2% 4%  
102 2% 3%  
103 1.0% 2%  
104 0.2% 0.5%  
105 0.3% 0.3%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.3% 99.9%  
82 0.7% 99.6%  
83 1.4% 98.9%  
84 2% 97%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 3% 92%  
87 6% 89%  
88 8% 83%  
89 12% 75%  
90 15% 63%  
91 11% 48% Median
92 5% 38%  
93 10% 33%  
94 4% 23%  
95 9% 19%  
96 7% 10%  
97 1.5% 3%  
98 0.9% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.0%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.5% 99.9%  
80 0.4% 99.5%  
81 0.5% 99.1%  
82 1.3% 98.5%  
83 2% 97%  
84 10% 96%  
85 5% 85% Majority
86 5% 80% Median
87 9% 75%  
88 23% 66%  
89 11% 43%  
90 7% 32%  
91 8% 25%  
92 7% 17%  
93 3% 10%  
94 3% 6%  
95 3% 4%  
96 0.6% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.8% 99.5%  
76 3% 98.7%  
77 4% 96%  
78 3% 92%  
79 10% 89% Last Result
80 10% 79%  
81 13% 69%  
82 11% 56% Median
83 9% 45%  
84 9% 36%  
85 7% 27% Majority
86 3% 20%  
87 12% 17%  
88 1.4% 5%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.7%  
74 0.8% 99.2%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 8% 94% Last Result
78 6% 86%  
79 11% 79%  
80 11% 68% Median
81 8% 57%  
82 7% 49%  
83 10% 42%  
84 6% 32%  
85 14% 26% Majority
86 5% 12%  
87 3% 7%  
88 1.0% 4%  
89 1.5% 3%  
90 0.4% 1.2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.6%  
66 1.1% 99.4%  
67 2% 98%  
68 1.3% 96%  
69 2% 95%  
70 12% 93%  
71 4% 81%  
72 9% 77%  
73 8% 69% Median
74 9% 61%  
75 14% 52%  
76 8% 39%  
77 16% 31%  
78 5% 15%  
79 4% 10%  
80 2% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.9% 99.4%  
67 3% 98.5%  
68 3% 96%  
69 10% 93%  
70 12% 83%  
71 8% 70% Median
72 7% 63%  
73 9% 55%  
74 9% 46%  
75 7% 38%  
76 11% 31% Last Result
77 8% 20%  
78 5% 12%  
79 3% 7%  
80 2% 5%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 1.0% 1.5%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 1.2% 99.7%  
63 2% 98%  
64 7% 97%  
65 7% 90%  
66 14% 83%  
67 12% 69%  
68 11% 57% Last Result, Median
69 7% 46%  
70 9% 40%  
71 9% 30%  
72 4% 21%  
73 8% 17%  
74 6% 9%  
75 1.5% 3%  
76 0.6% 1.4%  
77 0.4% 0.8%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.8% 99.6%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 1.2% 97%  
61 8% 96%  
62 10% 88%  
63 3% 78%  
64 4% 74% Median
65 15% 70%  
66 10% 55%  
67 9% 45%  
68 15% 36%  
69 7% 21%  
70 4% 14%  
71 3% 10%  
72 2% 6%  
73 1.3% 4%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 0.9%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 0.7% 99.3%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 2% 97%  
57 4% 95%  
58 14% 92%  
59 10% 78%  
60 10% 68%  
61 8% 59% Median
62 13% 51%  
63 10% 38%  
64 9% 28%  
65 11% 19%  
66 3% 8%  
67 4% 5%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet – Høyre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.4%  
54 1.0% 98%  
55 2% 97%  
56 6% 95%  
57 12% 89%  
58 6% 77%  
59 11% 72%  
60 10% 61% Median
61 13% 51%  
62 12% 38%  
63 7% 26%  
64 9% 19%  
65 7% 11%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.9% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.8%  
55 2% 98%  
56 6% 96%  
57 7% 90%  
58 15% 83%  
59 16% 68%  
60 8% 51% Last Result, Median
61 17% 43%  
62 7% 26%  
63 6% 19%  
64 7% 13%  
65 3% 6%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.2%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.8%  
28 0.9% 99.2%  
29 2% 98%  
30 7% 97%  
31 13% 89%  
32 13% 76% Median
33 10% 64%  
34 7% 53%  
35 8% 46%  
36 13% 38%  
37 10% 25%  
38 6% 15%  
39 4% 10%  
40 1.4% 6%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.9% 2%  
43 0.9% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.8%  
22 1.3% 99.4%  
23 4% 98%  
24 9% 94%  
25 8% 85%  
26 10% 77% Median
27 18% 68%  
28 9% 50%  
29 15% 41%  
30 7% 26%  
31 5% 19%  
32 4% 14%  
33 4% 10%  
34 3% 6%  
35 2% 3% Last Result
36 0.5% 0.9%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations