Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 27–31 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.2% 22.3–26.2% 21.7–26.7% 21.3–27.3% 20.4–28.2%
Høyre 25.0% 17.9% 16.2–19.7% 15.7–20.2% 15.3–20.7% 14.6–21.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.7% 14.2–17.5% 13.7–18.0% 13.4–18.4% 12.6–19.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.0% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2% 12.7–17.6% 11.9–18.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.7% 6.6–9.0% 6.3–9.4% 6.0–9.7% 5.5–10.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5% 4.5–7.8% 4.1–8.4%
Rødt 2.4% 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.7% 3.1–5.9% 2.7–6.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.7% 3.1–5.9% 2.7–6.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.0% 3.3–5.1% 3.0–5.4% 2.9–5.6% 2.5–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 41–45 40–47 40–48 37–50
Høyre 45 31 28–35 27–35 27–36 24–38
Fremskrittspartiet 27 28 25–31 25–32 24–33 22–34
Senterpartiet 19 28 23–30 22–31 21–32 20–33
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–17 9–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Venstre 8 3 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.5% 99.5%  
39 0.5% 99.0%  
40 6% 98%  
41 6% 93%  
42 16% 86%  
43 32% 71% Median
44 19% 39%  
45 10% 20%  
46 4% 9%  
47 3% 6%  
48 1.3% 3%  
49 0.9% 1.5% Last Result
50 0.3% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 0.4% 99.5%  
26 1.1% 99.0%  
27 4% 98%  
28 6% 94%  
29 7% 88%  
30 14% 81%  
31 32% 67% Median
32 12% 35%  
33 7% 23%  
34 4% 15%  
35 7% 11%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.7% 1.2%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 1.0% 99.8%  
23 1.0% 98.8%  
24 3% 98%  
25 7% 95%  
26 13% 88%  
27 18% 76% Last Result
28 21% 58% Median
29 14% 37%  
30 10% 23%  
31 7% 12%  
32 3% 5%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 3% 97%  
23 6% 94%  
24 7% 89%  
25 16% 82%  
26 5% 66%  
27 5% 61%  
28 23% 56% Median
29 18% 32%  
30 8% 15%  
31 3% 7%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.3% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.3%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.7%  
10 7% 98.6%  
11 12% 91% Last Result
12 24% 79%  
13 20% 55% Median
14 10% 35%  
15 16% 24%  
16 6% 9%  
17 1.5% 3%  
18 0.5% 1.1%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0.3% 99.8%  
7 1.4% 99.5%  
8 13% 98%  
9 22% 85%  
10 21% 64% Median
11 26% 43%  
12 13% 17%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.9% 1.3%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.4% 100% Last Result
2 35% 98.6%  
3 0% 64%  
4 0% 64%  
5 0% 64%  
6 3% 64%  
7 35% 61% Median
8 8% 26%  
9 12% 17%  
10 4% 5%  
11 1.2% 1.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 5% 98%  
3 26% 92%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 3% 67%  
7 24% 64% Median
8 26% 39% Last Result
9 9% 13%  
10 3% 4%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100%  
2 48% 99.2%  
3 2% 51% Median
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 1.1% 49%  
7 24% 48%  
8 16% 24% Last Result
9 7% 8%  
10 1.1% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 100% 95–104 93–106 92–108 90–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 100% 94–104 93–105 92–105 89–108
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 97 100% 93–101 91–102 89–103 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 94 99.2% 89–98 88–100 87–101 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 89% 84–94 83–94 82–95 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 87 71% 82–90 80–92 80–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 32% 79–88 78–88 77–91 75–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 80 11% 75–85 75–86 74–87 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 0.8% 72–80 70–82 69–83 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 70 0% 65–75 64–76 64–77 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 66–74 66–75 64–76 62–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 64 0% 59–69 58–69 56–71 54–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 59 0% 55–62 54–64 53–65 51–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 53–59 52–61 52–62 50–64
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 42 0% 37–46 36–48 36–49 33–51
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 38 0% 34–44 32–45 31–45 28–47

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100% Last Result
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.7%  
91 0.6% 99.3%  
92 3% 98.7%  
93 2% 96%  
94 3% 94%  
95 8% 92%  
96 6% 83%  
97 8% 78%  
98 10% 70%  
99 11% 60%  
100 6% 49%  
101 16% 43% Median
102 7% 27%  
103 8% 20%  
104 2% 11%  
105 4% 9%  
106 0.8% 5%  
107 0.5% 4%  
108 3% 4%  
109 0.6% 1.0%  
110 0.2% 0.4%  
111 0.2% 0.3%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.8%  
90 0.9% 99.5%  
91 0.7% 98.6%  
92 0.5% 98%  
93 4% 97%  
94 5% 94%  
95 3% 89%  
96 8% 86%  
97 13% 77%  
98 10% 64%  
99 7% 54%  
100 8% 47%  
101 17% 40% Median
102 10% 22%  
103 3% 13%  
104 4% 10%  
105 4% 6%  
106 1.0% 2%  
107 0.6% 1.3%  
108 0.4% 0.7%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 2% 99.3%  
90 1.0% 97%  
91 2% 96%  
92 2% 94%  
93 6% 92%  
94 3% 86%  
95 8% 83%  
96 22% 74%  
97 17% 53% Median
98 4% 36%  
99 4% 32%  
100 12% 28%  
101 8% 16%  
102 4% 8%  
103 3% 5%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.7% 1.0%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 0.4% 99.2% Majority
86 1.1% 98.8%  
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 95%  
89 6% 92%  
90 4% 86%  
91 11% 82%  
92 9% 71%  
93 11% 61%  
94 17% 50% Median
95 15% 33%  
96 3% 18%  
97 2% 15%  
98 3% 12%  
99 2% 9%  
100 5% 7%  
101 0.3% 3%  
102 2% 2%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 0.5% 99.3% Last Result
81 0.6% 98.8%  
82 1.1% 98%  
83 4% 97%  
84 5% 93%  
85 9% 89% Majority
86 4% 80%  
87 10% 76%  
88 11% 65%  
89 7% 55%  
90 16% 48%  
91 9% 32% Median
92 8% 23%  
93 5% 15%  
94 6% 10%  
95 3% 5%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.4% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
78 1.1% 99.3%  
79 0.5% 98%  
80 3% 98%  
81 2% 95%  
82 5% 93%  
83 10% 88%  
84 6% 77%  
85 13% 71% Majority
86 7% 58%  
87 6% 52%  
88 15% 46% Median
89 15% 31%  
90 6% 16%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 7%  
93 2% 5%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.5% 1.1%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 0.9% 99.2%  
77 2% 98%  
78 5% 96%  
79 2% 92% Last Result
80 8% 89%  
81 9% 82%  
82 11% 73%  
83 22% 62%  
84 8% 40% Median
85 9% 32% Majority
86 9% 23%  
87 3% 14%  
88 6% 10%  
89 0.9% 5%  
90 0.8% 4%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.6% 0.8%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 1.2% 99.4%  
73 0.6% 98%  
74 3% 98%  
75 6% 95%  
76 5% 90%  
77 8% 85%  
78 9% 77%  
79 16% 68% Median
80 7% 52%  
81 11% 45%  
82 10% 35%  
83 4% 24%  
84 9% 20%  
85 5% 11% Majority
86 4% 7%  
87 1.1% 3%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.5%  
68 0.3% 99.2%  
69 3% 98.9%  
70 3% 96%  
71 3% 93%  
72 3% 91%  
73 6% 87%  
74 5% 81%  
75 12% 76%  
76 14% 64% Last Result
77 11% 50%  
78 13% 39% Median
79 11% 26%  
80 6% 15%  
81 4% 9%  
82 1.5% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.8% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0% 0.3%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.6% 99.3%  
63 1.0% 98.7%  
64 4% 98%  
65 4% 94%  
66 3% 90%  
67 10% 87%  
68 17% 78%  
69 8% 60% Median
70 7% 53%  
71 10% 46%  
72 13% 36%  
73 8% 23%  
74 3% 14%  
75 5% 11%  
76 4% 6%  
77 0.5% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.9% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 0.7% 99.4%  
64 2% 98.7%  
65 1.0% 97%  
66 6% 96%  
67 6% 90%  
68 13% 84% Last Result
69 13% 71%  
70 5% 58%  
71 19% 53% Median
72 14% 35%  
73 10% 21%  
74 4% 11%  
75 2% 6%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.5% 1.3%  
78 0.4% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.3% 99.4%  
56 2% 99.2%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95%  
59 6% 94%  
60 5% 87%  
61 14% 82%  
62 4% 68% Median
63 10% 64%  
64 9% 54%  
65 11% 45%  
66 8% 35%  
67 10% 27%  
68 4% 17%  
69 8% 13%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.2% 3%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.8%  
74 0.6% 0.7%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 1.0% 99.7%  
52 0.6% 98.7%  
53 1.2% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 4% 94%  
56 5% 90%  
57 13% 85%  
58 13% 72%  
59 18% 59% Median
60 7% 40%  
61 12% 33%  
62 12% 21%  
63 2% 9%  
64 2% 6%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.5% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0% 0.4%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.8%  
51 0.9% 99.2%  
52 4% 98%  
53 8% 94%  
54 8% 86%  
55 24% 78%  
56 15% 55% Median
57 8% 39%  
58 14% 32%  
59 8% 18%  
60 3% 10% Last Result
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.4%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 1.1% 99.3%  
35 0.6% 98%  
36 4% 98%  
37 4% 93%  
38 3% 89%  
39 3% 87%  
40 13% 84%  
41 20% 70% Median
42 11% 51%  
43 6% 40%  
44 8% 33%  
45 8% 26%  
46 8% 17%  
47 3% 9%  
48 3% 6%  
49 1.5% 3%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.9%  
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.7%  
29 0.4% 99.3%  
30 1.1% 98.9%  
31 0.4% 98%  
32 4% 97%  
33 2% 94%  
34 6% 92%  
35 14% 86% Last Result
36 7% 72%  
37 15% 66%  
38 11% 51% Median
39 11% 40%  
40 8% 29%  
41 4% 21%  
42 4% 17%  
43 2% 12%  
44 5% 11%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations