Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 27 January–2 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.2% 21.5–25.0% 21.0–25.6% 20.6–26.0% 19.8–26.9%
Høyre 25.0% 18.3% 16.8–20.0% 16.3–20.5% 15.9–20.9% 15.2–21.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.3% 15.8–19.0% 15.4–19.5% 15.1–19.9% 14.4–20.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 16.0% 14.5–17.6% 14.1–18.0% 13.8–18.4% 13.1–19.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Rødt 2.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–45 38–46 38–46 36–48
Høyre 45 32 28–35 27–36 27–37 25–38
Senterpartiet 19 31 28–34 28–35 27–35 25–37
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 25–31 25–32 24–33 23–34
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 9–13 8–14 7–15
Rødt 1 9 7–10 6–11 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 3–10 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–7 1–8 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.7%  
37 1.3% 98.8%  
38 4% 98%  
39 3% 94%  
40 4% 90%  
41 8% 86%  
42 20% 78%  
43 12% 58% Median
44 33% 47%  
45 8% 14%  
46 4% 6%  
47 0.9% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 1.0% 99.4%  
27 6% 98%  
28 4% 92%  
29 3% 88%  
30 6% 85%  
31 25% 79%  
32 23% 54% Median
33 8% 31%  
34 7% 23%  
35 8% 16%  
36 4% 9%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 1.1% 99.2%  
27 2% 98%  
28 6% 96%  
29 14% 90%  
30 20% 76%  
31 15% 55% Median
32 17% 40%  
33 10% 24%  
34 8% 14%  
35 3% 6%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.6% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.7%  
24 3% 98%  
25 8% 95%  
26 23% 87%  
27 15% 65% Last Result, Median
28 19% 49%  
29 9% 30%  
30 9% 21%  
31 5% 12%  
32 3% 7%  
33 1.4% 3%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.4% 99.8%  
8 4% 99.4%  
9 16% 95%  
10 17% 79%  
11 40% 62% Last Result, Median
12 12% 22%  
13 7% 10%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.6% 0.7%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 5% 100%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0.5% 95%  
7 6% 95%  
8 17% 89%  
9 53% 71% Median
10 9% 19%  
11 5% 10%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 2% 99.1%  
3 23% 97%  
4 0% 74%  
5 0% 74%  
6 0.2% 74%  
7 13% 74%  
8 41% 61% Last Result, Median
9 14% 20%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100% Last Result
2 17% 99.1%  
3 2% 82%  
4 0.7% 80%  
5 0% 80%  
6 0.1% 80%  
7 8% 79%  
8 56% 72% Median
9 10% 15%  
10 4% 5%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 82% 97% Median
3 4% 15%  
4 0.1% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.7% 11%  
7 7% 10%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 99 100% 96–104 95–106 94–108 93–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 101 100% 96–104 94–104 93–105 90–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 99 100% 93–102 91–103 89–104 87–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 94 99.3% 89–96 88–98 87–99 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 92 98% 87–95 86–96 85–97 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 88 78% 82–92 80–93 78–93 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 55% 81–87 80–89 79–90 76–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 81 9% 76–84 74–85 74–86 71–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 75 0.7% 73–80 71–81 70–82 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0% 71–77 69–78 68–79 66–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 68 0% 65–73 65–75 64–76 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 70 0% 65–73 63–74 61–75 57–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 58–67 57–69 57–70 56–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 59 0% 56–64 55–66 54–68 53–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 50–57 49–57 48–58 46–60
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 41 0% 37–45 37–47 35–48 33–50
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 40 0% 36–44 35–46 34–47 32–51

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.2% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.5% 99.6%  
94 2% 99.1%  
95 4% 97%  
96 6% 94%  
97 18% 87%  
98 4% 69%  
99 19% 65%  
100 5% 46% Median
101 7% 40%  
102 11% 33%  
103 8% 23%  
104 6% 15%  
105 3% 9%  
106 2% 6%  
107 1.2% 4% Last Result
108 1.1% 3%  
109 0.4% 2%  
110 0.2% 1.2%  
111 0.4% 0.9%  
112 0.5% 0.6%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.5% 99.5%  
91 0.3% 99.0%  
92 1.2% 98.7%  
93 1.3% 98%  
94 2% 96%  
95 3% 94%  
96 8% 92%  
97 7% 84%  
98 5% 77%  
99 6% 71%  
100 14% 66%  
101 12% 52%  
102 20% 39% Median
103 4% 19%  
104 10% 15%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.0% 2%  
107 0.3% 0.7%  
108 0.1% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
89 2% 99.2%  
90 1.2% 97%  
91 2% 96%  
92 2% 94%  
93 5% 92%  
94 5% 87%  
95 4% 82%  
96 8% 78%  
97 5% 70%  
98 13% 65%  
99 9% 53%  
100 10% 43%  
101 20% 33% Median
102 4% 14%  
103 5% 9%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.5% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.6%  
85 1.1% 99.3% Majority
86 0.7% 98%  
87 1.4% 98%  
88 5% 96%  
89 5% 91%  
90 6% 86%  
91 4% 80%  
92 14% 76%  
93 10% 63%  
94 24% 53% Median
95 8% 29%  
96 11% 20%  
97 2% 9%  
98 3% 7%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.4% 1.4%  
102 0.8% 1.0%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.8%  
82 0.4% 99.4%  
83 0.4% 99.0%  
84 0.9% 98.6%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 3% 95%  
87 4% 92%  
88 7% 87%  
89 6% 81%  
90 8% 75%  
91 13% 67%  
92 10% 54%  
93 22% 44% Median
94 5% 21%  
95 10% 17%  
96 4% 7%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.6% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.1% 99.6%  
77 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
78 2% 99.0%  
79 1.4% 97%  
80 2% 95%  
81 2% 94%  
82 4% 92%  
83 5% 88%  
84 5% 83%  
85 7% 78% Majority
86 4% 71%  
87 8% 67%  
88 10% 58%  
89 7% 48%  
90 24% 41% Median
91 6% 18%  
92 6% 11%  
93 4% 6%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.1%  
96 0.5% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 0.4% 99.3%  
78 1.4% 98.9%  
79 2% 98% Last Result
80 5% 96%  
81 4% 90%  
82 7% 87%  
83 14% 80%  
84 11% 66%  
85 24% 55% Median, Majority
86 9% 31%  
87 13% 22%  
88 4% 9%  
89 1.1% 5%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.1%  
93 0.1% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.4%  
73 0.8% 99.0%  
74 3% 98%  
75 4% 95%  
76 6% 91% Last Result
77 5% 86%  
78 5% 81%  
79 7% 75%  
80 11% 68%  
81 7% 57%  
82 25% 49% Median
83 9% 24%  
84 7% 15%  
85 4% 9% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 0.8% 1.2%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.8% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.0%  
69 0.8% 98.6%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 2% 93%  
73 11% 91%  
74 8% 80%  
75 24% 71%  
76 10% 47%  
77 14% 37% Median
78 4% 24%  
79 6% 20%  
80 5% 14%  
81 5% 9%  
82 1.4% 4%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.7% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.6%  
67 0.9% 99.2%  
68 1.0% 98% Last Result
69 3% 97%  
70 4% 95%  
71 8% 91%  
72 10% 84%  
73 14% 73%  
74 27% 59% Median
75 11% 32%  
76 9% 22%  
77 7% 13%  
78 3% 6%  
79 0.8% 3%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.6%  
63 1.0% 99.3%  
64 3% 98%  
65 10% 95%  
66 4% 85%  
67 20% 81%  
68 12% 61%  
69 14% 48% Median
70 6% 34%  
71 5% 29%  
72 7% 23%  
73 8% 16%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 6%  
76 1.3% 4%  
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.3% 1.3%  
79 0.5% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.4%  
59 0.2% 99.1%  
60 0.4% 98.8%  
61 1.1% 98%  
62 1.2% 97% Last Result
63 2% 96%  
64 3% 94%  
65 6% 91%  
66 8% 85%  
67 11% 77%  
68 7% 66%  
69 5% 60%  
70 19% 54%  
71 4% 35% Median
72 18% 31%  
73 6% 13%  
74 4% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.5% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 1.3% 99.5%  
57 5% 98%  
58 3% 93%  
59 20% 90%  
60 9% 70%  
61 12% 61% Median
62 10% 49%  
63 7% 39%  
64 7% 32%  
65 6% 26%  
66 7% 19%  
67 3% 12%  
68 4% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.6%  
54 2% 98.9%  
55 6% 97%  
56 4% 91%  
57 20% 87%  
58 12% 67%  
59 12% 56% Median
60 11% 43%  
61 8% 32%  
62 7% 25%  
63 4% 18%  
64 6% 14%  
65 2% 8%  
66 1.1% 6%  
67 2% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.3% 1.0%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 1.1% 99.1%  
48 3% 98%  
49 4% 95%  
50 6% 91%  
51 6% 85%  
52 7% 79%  
53 24% 72%  
54 7% 47% Median
55 19% 40%  
56 11% 21%  
57 7% 10%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 0.7% 99.4%  
35 2% 98.7%  
36 1.1% 97%  
37 14% 96%  
38 4% 82%  
39 7% 78%  
40 4% 71%  
41 22% 67%  
42 15% 45% Median
43 8% 30%  
44 7% 22%  
45 7% 16%  
46 3% 9%  
47 2% 6%  
48 0.9% 3%  
49 1.0% 2%  
50 0.9% 1.3%  
51 0.1% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 0.8% 99.4%  
34 3% 98.6%  
35 1.2% 95% Last Result
36 6% 94%  
37 5% 88%  
38 9% 83%  
39 12% 75%  
40 16% 63%  
41 10% 47% Median
42 14% 37%  
43 6% 23%  
44 7% 16%  
45 4% 9%  
46 2% 6%  
47 1.1% 3%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 0.5% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.8%  
51 0.4% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations