Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 30 January–3 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.6% 21.5–28.5%
Høyre 25.0% 19.9% 18.3–21.6% 17.9–22.0% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.3% 13.9–16.8% 13.5–17.3% 13.2–17.6% 12.5–18.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 43–47 42–48 41–50 40–51
Høyre 45 35 32–38 32–39 31–40 29–41
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 26–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
Senterpartiet 19 24 22–28 21–29 21–29 20–30
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 9–14 9–15 9–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–12 8–12 7–13 2–13
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 3–9 2–10 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.8%  
41 2% 98.9%  
42 4% 97%  
43 14% 93%  
44 28% 79%  
45 29% 50% Median
46 10% 21%  
47 2% 12%  
48 5% 9%  
49 2% 5% Last Result
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 1.0%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 1.1% 99.4%  
31 2% 98%  
32 9% 97%  
33 13% 88%  
34 18% 75%  
35 10% 57% Median
36 22% 46%  
37 10% 24%  
38 8% 14%  
39 3% 6%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.5% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.7%  
24 3% 99.0%  
25 5% 96%  
26 22% 91%  
27 20% 69% Last Result, Median
28 13% 48%  
29 23% 35%  
30 9% 12%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 1.2%  
33 0.2% 0.5%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
20 1.3% 99.7%  
21 4% 98%  
22 10% 95%  
23 19% 85%  
24 17% 66% Median
25 19% 49%  
26 8% 30%  
27 6% 22%  
28 10% 16%  
29 5% 7%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.9%  
9 6% 99.6%  
10 17% 94%  
11 17% 77% Last Result
12 20% 60% Median
13 23% 41%  
14 15% 17%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.8% 0.9%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.5% 100%  
3 0.5% 99.4%  
4 0.1% 98.9%  
5 0% 98.9%  
6 0% 98.9%  
7 2% 98.8%  
8 11% 97%  
9 22% 85%  
10 30% 63% Median
11 21% 33%  
12 9% 12%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 17% 99.9%  
3 0% 83%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0.2% 83%  
7 15% 83%  
8 27% 68% Median
9 29% 41%  
10 7% 11%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 2% 98%  
3 33% 96%  
4 0% 64%  
5 0% 64%  
6 0.4% 64%  
7 16% 63% Median
8 37% 47% Last Result
9 7% 10%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 37% 98%  
2 60% 61% Median
3 0% 1.4%  
4 0% 1.4%  
5 0% 1.4%  
6 0.6% 1.4%  
7 0.5% 0.7%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 100% 93–101 92–102 92–104 89–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 100% 95–102 94–103 92–104 91–107
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 100% 91–99 91–101 90–101 88–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 98.6% 87–95 86–96 85–98 83–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 92% 85–93 84–94 83–95 81–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 56% 81–89 81–91 80–92 77–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 12% 77–85 76–86 76–88 75–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 80 8% 76–84 75–85 74–86 72–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 0.5% 71–79 70–81 70–82 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 70 0% 67–74 66–75 65–76 62–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 66–72 65–74 65–75 63–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 64 0% 61–68 60–69 59–70 57–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 63 0% 59–66 58–67 57–68 55–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 54–59 53–60 52–61 50–64
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 43 0% 38–48 38–48 38–48 35–50
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 28–37 28–38 27–38 25–40

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
89 0.5% 99.7%  
90 0.8% 99.3%  
91 0.7% 98%  
92 7% 98%  
93 3% 91%  
94 10% 88%  
95 9% 78%  
96 7% 69%  
97 12% 62%  
98 15% 50% Median
99 10% 34%  
100 6% 24%  
101 11% 18%  
102 3% 7%  
103 2% 4%  
104 0.7% 3%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.9% 1.1%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.6% 99.6%  
92 2% 99.0%  
93 2% 97%  
94 5% 96%  
95 11% 91%  
96 9% 80%  
97 5% 71%  
98 12% 66%  
99 13% 53% Median
100 15% 40%  
101 2% 25%  
102 14% 23%  
103 5% 9%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.7% 1.4%  
107 0.5% 0.7%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.7%  
88 0.4% 99.5%  
89 1.4% 99.1%  
90 2% 98%  
91 10% 95%  
92 4% 85%  
93 9% 81%  
94 21% 72%  
95 6% 50% Median
96 11% 44%  
97 12% 33%  
98 5% 21%  
99 9% 15%  
100 1.4% 7%  
101 3% 5%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 1.1% 2%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0.2% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.8%  
84 0.8% 99.4%  
85 1.3% 98.6% Majority
86 5% 97%  
87 7% 92%  
88 3% 85%  
89 11% 83%  
90 8% 71%  
91 20% 63% Median
92 8% 43%  
93 13% 35%  
94 10% 22%  
95 6% 12%  
96 2% 6%  
97 1.2% 4%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.4% 1.3%  
100 0.7% 0.9%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.5% 99.6%  
82 0.6% 99.1%  
83 1.3% 98%  
84 5% 97%  
85 12% 92% Majority
86 6% 80%  
87 11% 75%  
88 8% 63%  
89 11% 55% Median
90 16% 44%  
91 10% 27%  
92 7% 17%  
93 4% 11%  
94 4% 7%  
95 1.2% 3%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.5% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
78 0.9% 99.3%  
79 0.7% 98%  
80 2% 98%  
81 7% 95%  
82 5% 88%  
83 15% 83%  
84 12% 68%  
85 6% 56% Majority
86 14% 50% Median
87 8% 36%  
88 11% 28%  
89 8% 17%  
90 3% 9%  
91 3% 6%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.8% 1.2%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 4% 99.3%  
77 7% 95%  
78 10% 88%  
79 2% 78% Last Result
80 10% 76%  
81 15% 66% Median
82 21% 52%  
83 13% 31%  
84 6% 17%  
85 3% 12% Majority
86 5% 9%  
87 1.2% 4%  
88 1.5% 3%  
89 0.7% 1.2%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.5% 99.7%  
73 0.9% 99.2%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 4% 97%  
76 4% 93%  
77 7% 89%  
78 10% 82%  
79 16% 72%  
80 11% 56%  
81 8% 45% Median
82 11% 36%  
83 6% 25%  
84 11% 20%  
85 5% 8% Majority
86 1.3% 3%  
87 0.6% 1.4%  
88 0.5% 0.9%  
89 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.6%  
69 0.7% 99.1%  
70 6% 98%  
71 8% 93%  
72 6% 84%  
73 8% 78%  
74 8% 70%  
75 9% 62%  
76 11% 53% Last Result, Median
77 10% 42%  
78 16% 32%  
79 8% 16%  
80 3% 8%  
81 2% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.3%  
64 0.8% 98.6%  
65 2% 98%  
66 5% 96%  
67 14% 90%  
68 2% 76%  
69 15% 74%  
70 13% 59%  
71 12% 46% Median
72 5% 34%  
73 9% 29%  
74 11% 20%  
75 5% 9%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.5% 2%  
78 0.6% 0.9%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.4%  
65 4% 98.8%  
66 6% 95%  
67 11% 89%  
68 17% 78% Last Result
69 14% 61% Median
70 20% 47%  
71 10% 28%  
72 9% 18%  
73 3% 10%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.7% 99.6%  
58 0.4% 98.9%  
59 3% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 12% 93%  
62 6% 81%  
63 11% 75%  
64 21% 64% Median
65 7% 43%  
66 15% 36%  
67 8% 21%  
68 8% 13%  
69 2% 5%  
70 1.3% 3%  
71 0.7% 1.5%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.3%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 2% 97%  
59 8% 94%  
60 10% 86%  
61 6% 76%  
62 15% 70% Median
63 18% 55%  
64 13% 37%  
65 10% 24%  
66 8% 14%  
67 3% 6%  
68 1.2% 3%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.4%  
52 4% 99.1%  
53 3% 95%  
54 12% 93%  
55 19% 81%  
56 11% 62%  
57 6% 50% Median
58 27% 45%  
59 8% 18%  
60 5% 10% Last Result
61 3% 5%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.0%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 1.0% 99.4%  
37 0.7% 98%  
38 12% 98%  
39 6% 86%  
40 3% 80%  
41 14% 77%  
42 9% 63%  
43 10% 54%  
44 9% 44% Median
45 12% 35%  
46 11% 23%  
47 2% 13%  
48 9% 10%  
49 0.6% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.7%  
26 1.3% 99.0%  
27 1.2% 98%  
28 12% 97%  
29 7% 84%  
30 8% 77%  
31 9% 69%  
32 9% 60%  
33 12% 51% Median
34 7% 38%  
35 13% 31% Last Result
36 6% 18%  
37 6% 13%  
38 4% 7%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 1.0% 1.2%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations