Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 4–5 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.2% 20.6–24.0% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.9% 19.0–25.7%
Høyre 25.0% 19.4% 17.9–21.1% 17.4–21.6% 17.1–22.0% 16.4–22.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.9% 14.5–17.5% 14.1–17.9% 13.8–18.3% 13.1–19.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Rødt 2.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 39–43 37–43 36–44 35–46
Høyre 45 33 30–37 30–38 29–38 28–41
Senterpartiet 19 29 26–30 25–32 25–33 23–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–28 24–29 23–29 21–31
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–15 10–16 10–16 9–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–10 7–11 6–11 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 3–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–9 2–11
Rødt 1 7 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.1%  
37 3% 97%  
38 2% 94%  
39 5% 92%  
40 12% 87%  
41 19% 75%  
42 37% 56% Median
43 16% 20%  
44 2% 4%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.2%  
30 8% 96%  
31 9% 88%  
32 19% 79%  
33 25% 60% Median
34 8% 35%  
35 9% 27%  
36 6% 18%  
37 5% 13%  
38 6% 8%  
39 0.9% 2%  
40 0.4% 1.1%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 99.6%  
24 0.9% 98.7%  
25 4% 98%  
26 5% 94%  
27 7% 89%  
28 31% 82%  
29 32% 51% Median
30 10% 19%  
31 3% 9%  
32 2% 5%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.5% 1.1%  
35 0.2% 0.5%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.8%  
21 0.4% 99.6%  
22 1.2% 99.2%  
23 1.2% 98%  
24 8% 97%  
25 9% 89%  
26 49% 80% Median
27 11% 31% Last Result
28 14% 20%  
29 5% 6%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.5% 0.9%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 14% 98%  
11 15% 84% Last Result
12 22% 69% Median
13 26% 47%  
14 11% 21%  
15 5% 10%  
16 4% 5%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 2% 99.8%  
3 0.4% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0.5% 98%  
7 8% 97%  
8 41% 89% Median
9 29% 48%  
10 11% 19%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.8% 1.5%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 1.0% 97%  
3 14% 96%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 1.4% 83%  
7 38% 81% Median
8 28% 43% Last Result
9 12% 15%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 23% 99.9%  
3 2% 77%  
4 0% 75%  
5 0% 75%  
6 12% 75%  
7 31% 63% Median
8 18% 31% Last Result
9 12% 14%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100% Last Result
2 26% 99.0%  
3 0% 73%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 15% 73%  
7 29% 57% Median
8 20% 28%  
9 7% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 97–105 96–106 95–107 93–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 98 100% 94–101 92–103 91–105 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 96 99.9% 93–100 91–102 90–103 87–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 97% 88–95 86–96 84–97 83–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 88% 84–92 83–93 82–94 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 62% 81–89 80–90 78–91 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 16% 79–85 78–86 76–88 75–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 81 12% 77–85 76–86 75–87 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 0.5% 73–80 71–81 70–82 68–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 73 0.1% 69–76 67–78 66–79 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 67–72 65–73 64–74 62–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 66 0% 61–71 60–72 59–73 56–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 59 0% 57–63 56–64 54–65 53–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 51–56 50–57 48–58 46–60
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 47 0% 42–50 41–52 40–53 38–55
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 42 0% 37–44 35–46 34–48 32–50

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.7%  
94 0.8% 99.3%  
95 2% 98%  
96 6% 97%  
97 6% 91%  
98 4% 85%  
99 7% 81%  
100 10% 74%  
101 30% 63%  
102 5% 33% Median
103 9% 28%  
104 6% 19%  
105 6% 13%  
106 2% 7%  
107 3% 4% Last Result
108 0.7% 2%  
109 0.3% 1.1%  
110 0.3% 0.8%  
111 0.1% 0.5%  
112 0.1% 0.4%  
113 0.2% 0.2%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
89 0.3% 99.5%  
90 2% 99.1%  
91 2% 98%  
92 2% 96%  
93 1.4% 94%  
94 4% 92%  
95 13% 88%  
96 17% 75%  
97 8% 58%  
98 11% 51% Median
99 15% 39%  
100 10% 24%  
101 5% 14%  
102 1.4% 9%  
103 4% 8%  
104 2% 4%  
105 1.4% 3%  
106 0.5% 1.2%  
107 0.3% 0.7%  
108 0% 0.4%  
109 0.3% 0.4%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.2% 99.6%  
88 0.3% 99.4%  
89 0.6% 99.1%  
90 3% 98%  
91 2% 96%  
92 3% 94%  
93 3% 91%  
94 9% 88%  
95 11% 79%  
96 19% 68%  
97 18% 49%  
98 11% 31% Median
99 4% 21%  
100 7% 17%  
101 2% 10%  
102 5% 8%  
103 1.2% 3%  
104 1.0% 2%  
105 0.2% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.4%  
107 0.2% 0.2%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 1.5% 99.6%  
84 1.2% 98%  
85 1.0% 97% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 4% 94%  
88 13% 90%  
89 13% 77%  
90 8% 64%  
91 21% 56% Median
92 11% 35%  
93 10% 24%  
94 4% 14%  
95 4% 10%  
96 3% 6%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.5% 1.3%  
99 0.4% 0.8%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.3% 0.3%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.8% 99.7%  
80 0.3% 99.0% Last Result
81 0.8% 98.7%  
82 3% 98%  
83 3% 95%  
84 4% 92%  
85 4% 88% Majority
86 12% 84%  
87 17% 72%  
88 12% 55%  
89 16% 43%  
90 7% 27% Median
91 6% 20%  
92 7% 14%  
93 3% 7%  
94 3% 4%  
95 0.6% 1.2%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.4%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.7%  
77 0.6% 99.1% Last Result
78 1.2% 98.5%  
79 2% 97%  
80 5% 95%  
81 6% 91%  
82 4% 85%  
83 4% 81%  
84 15% 77%  
85 11% 62% Majority
86 16% 51% Median
87 18% 35%  
88 4% 17%  
89 3% 13%  
90 6% 10%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.3%  
94 0.7% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 1.2% 99.6%  
76 0.9% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 4% 93% Last Result
80 22% 89%  
81 5% 67%  
82 13% 62%  
83 18% 49% Median
84 15% 31%  
85 7% 16% Majority
86 4% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.9% 1.4%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.7%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 0.6% 99.4%  
75 3% 98.8%  
76 3% 96%  
77 7% 93%  
78 6% 86%  
79 7% 80%  
80 16% 73%  
81 12% 57% Median
82 17% 45%  
83 12% 28%  
84 4% 16%  
85 4% 12% Majority
86 3% 8%  
87 3% 5%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.3% 1.3% Last Result
90 0.8% 1.0%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 1.1% 99.0%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 2% 93%  
73 9% 91%  
74 4% 82%  
75 4% 78%  
76 18% 74% Last Result
77 16% 56%  
78 9% 39% Median
79 15% 30%  
80 7% 15%  
81 3% 7%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.5% 1.4%  
84 0.5% 1.0%  
85 0.1% 0.5% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.6%  
65 1.0% 99.5%  
66 1.2% 98%  
67 5% 97%  
68 2% 92%  
69 7% 90%  
70 4% 83%  
71 11% 79%  
72 18% 69%  
73 19% 51% Median
74 11% 32%  
75 9% 21%  
76 3% 12%  
77 3% 9%  
78 2% 6%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.8%  
63 1.3% 99.1%  
64 1.3% 98%  
65 3% 97%  
66 3% 94%  
67 6% 91%  
68 7% 85% Last Result
69 17% 78%  
70 22% 61%  
71 19% 39% Median
72 13% 21%  
73 4% 8%  
74 3% 4%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.6% 1.0%  
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.4%  
58 0.5% 99.3%  
59 3% 98.8%  
60 4% 96%  
61 3% 92%  
62 4% 90%  
63 6% 86%  
64 18% 80%  
65 11% 62%  
66 22% 51% Median
67 9% 30%  
68 3% 21%  
69 4% 17%  
70 1.5% 13%  
71 3% 12%  
72 6% 9%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 1.3%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.2%  
55 2% 97%  
56 4% 95%  
57 9% 91%  
58 20% 82%  
59 27% 62% Median
60 6% 35%  
61 5% 29%  
62 6% 24%  
63 8% 17%  
64 5% 9%  
65 1.3% 4%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.3%  
68 0.3% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.5%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.8% 99.5%  
48 1.5% 98.7%  
49 1.2% 97%  
50 3% 96%  
51 5% 93%  
52 22% 88%  
53 9% 67%  
54 23% 58% Median
55 17% 35%  
56 9% 17%  
57 4% 8%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.7% 1.3%  
60 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.7%  
38 0.2% 99.5%  
39 0.4% 99.3%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 6% 97%  
42 5% 91%  
43 6% 86%  
44 10% 80%  
45 5% 70%  
46 15% 65%  
47 21% 50% Median
48 6% 29%  
49 6% 23%  
50 10% 16%  
51 2% 7%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.3% 4%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.1% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.4%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.8%  
32 0.4% 99.7%  
33 1.3% 99.3%  
34 0.7% 98%  
35 4% 97% Last Result
36 3% 93%  
37 2% 90%  
38 5% 88%  
39 7% 84%  
40 6% 76%  
41 5% 71%  
42 26% 65%  
43 18% 39% Median
44 11% 21%  
45 3% 10%  
46 3% 7%  
47 1.4% 4%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 1.1%  
50 0.2% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations