Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå and Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 4–10 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.1% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.5% 22.5–27.9% 21.6–28.8%
Høyre 25.0% 19.4% 17.8–21.1% 17.4–21.6% 17.0–22.0% 16.3–22.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.2% 13.8–16.7% 13.4–17.2% 13.0–17.6% 12.4–18.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 12.9–17.5% 12.3–18.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Rødt 2.4% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Venstre 4.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–47 42–49 42–49 40–52
Høyre 45 34 31–36 30–37 30–38 28–40
Senterpartiet 19 26 25–30 24–30 23–31 22–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 25–28 24–29 23–31 21–32
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 8–16
Rødt 1 9 8–11 7–11 7–12 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–12
Venstre 8 7 2–8 2–9 2–10 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 1.3% 99.4%  
42 9% 98%  
43 14% 89%  
44 11% 75%  
45 42% 65% Median
46 5% 23%  
47 10% 18%  
48 2% 8%  
49 5% 7% Last Result
50 0.5% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.0%  
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 1.1% 99.2%  
30 5% 98%  
31 4% 93%  
32 10% 89%  
33 11% 78%  
34 40% 67% Median
35 9% 27%  
36 9% 18%  
37 6% 9%  
38 1.2% 3%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.6%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.4% 100%  
22 1.2% 99.6%  
23 2% 98%  
24 5% 97%  
25 9% 91%  
26 36% 83% Median
27 9% 47%  
28 12% 37%  
29 12% 25%  
30 10% 13%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.9%  
33 0.2% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.7%  
22 0.7% 99.1%  
23 3% 98%  
24 1.4% 95%  
25 10% 94%  
26 17% 84%  
27 49% 67% Last Result, Median
28 11% 18%  
29 4% 8%  
30 0.8% 3%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.4% 0.9%  
33 0.3% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 6% 98%  
10 17% 92%  
11 42% 75% Last Result, Median
12 21% 34%  
13 9% 13%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.6% 1.2%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 2% 100%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0.2% 98%  
7 6% 98%  
8 14% 92%  
9 55% 78% Median
10 11% 23%  
11 10% 13%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 9% 98%  
3 1.4% 89%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0.4% 87%  
7 43% 87% Median
8 22% 44%  
9 15% 21%  
10 5% 7%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 24% 99.3%  
3 0.1% 76%  
4 0% 76%  
5 0% 76%  
6 0.6% 76%  
7 52% 75% Median
8 14% 23% Last Result
9 5% 8%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 21% 99.6%  
2 5% 78%  
3 56% 73% Median
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 1.2% 18%  
7 11% 17%  
8 5% 5% Last Result
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 98 100% 95–103 93–103 92–106 90–108
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 97 100% 94–100 93–102 91–104 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 92 99.7% 90–97 89–99 88–100 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 91 98% 89–96 87–99 86–100 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 89 97% 86–94 85–95 83–96 82–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 24% 80–87 79–90 77–91 75–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 81 16% 79–86 77–88 76–88 74–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 78 2% 73–80 70–82 69–83 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.5% 72–80 71–82 69–82 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 68–75 67–78 66–79 65–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 71 0% 66–74 66–76 63–77 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 62–70 62–71 60–72 58–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 61 0% 57–64 56–64 55–66 53–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 53–59 52–61 52–61 50–65
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 44 0% 39–46 38–49 37–50 34–51
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 36 0% 33–40 30–43 30–43 28–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 1.1% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 98.7%  
92 1.3% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 1.3% 95%  
95 4% 93%  
96 3% 90%  
97 4% 86%  
98 37% 82% Median
99 5% 45%  
100 11% 40%  
101 5% 29%  
102 6% 24%  
103 13% 18%  
104 2% 5%  
105 0.7% 3%  
106 1.4% 3%  
107 0.7% 1.2%  
108 0.4% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.2% 100%  
88 0.4% 99.8%  
89 0.4% 99.4%  
90 0.5% 98.9%  
91 2% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 4% 95%  
94 10% 91%  
95 4% 81%  
96 11% 77%  
97 41% 67% Median
98 8% 26%  
99 6% 18%  
100 3% 12%  
101 2% 9%  
102 2% 6%  
103 2% 5%  
104 0.5% 3%  
105 2% 2%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.2% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.7% Majority
86 0.3% 99.4%  
87 0.8% 99.1%  
88 3% 98% Last Result
89 3% 96%  
90 3% 93%  
91 2% 90%  
92 43% 88% Median
93 6% 44%  
94 7% 38%  
95 9% 32%  
96 10% 23%  
97 4% 13%  
98 3% 9%  
99 4% 6%  
100 0.9% 3%  
101 0.6% 2%  
102 0.4% 1.1%  
103 0.2% 0.7%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.9%  
84 1.0% 99.5%  
85 0.5% 98% Majority
86 1.3% 98%  
87 3% 97%  
88 3% 94%  
89 6% 91%  
90 6% 85%  
91 41% 79% Median
92 8% 39%  
93 4% 30%  
94 5% 26%  
95 8% 21%  
96 5% 14%  
97 2% 8%  
98 0.8% 7%  
99 1.2% 6%  
100 4% 5%  
101 0.1% 0.6%  
102 0% 0.5%  
103 0.4% 0.5%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.2% 100%  
80 0% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 1.2% 99.7%  
83 1.1% 98%  
84 0.6% 97%  
85 4% 97% Majority
86 3% 93%  
87 3% 90%  
88 4% 87%  
89 39% 83% Median
90 6% 44%  
91 9% 38%  
92 6% 29%  
93 10% 23%  
94 7% 14%  
95 4% 7%  
96 1.0% 3%  
97 0.4% 2%  
98 0.7% 1.4%  
99 0.3% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.8% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.0%  
77 1.3% 98.7%  
78 2% 97%  
79 3% 95% Last Result
80 6% 92%  
81 6% 87%  
82 43% 80% Median
83 7% 37%  
84 6% 30%  
85 5% 24% Majority
86 4% 18%  
87 6% 14%  
88 0.9% 8%  
89 1.3% 7%  
90 0.4% 5%  
91 4% 5%  
92 0.3% 0.8%  
93 0.4% 0.5%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.7%  
75 0.7% 99.1%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 97% Last Result
78 2% 94%  
79 4% 92%  
80 2% 89%  
81 39% 87% Median
82 12% 49%  
83 12% 37%  
84 9% 24%  
85 3% 16% Majority
86 3% 13%  
87 2% 10%  
88 5% 7%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.4%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.4% 100%  
67 0% 99.5%  
68 0.1% 99.5%  
69 4% 99.4%  
70 1.2% 95%  
71 0.8% 94%  
72 2% 93%  
73 5% 92%  
74 8% 86%  
75 5% 79%  
76 4% 74%  
77 8% 70%  
78 41% 61% Median
79 6% 21%  
80 6% 15%  
81 3% 9%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 0.5% 2%  
85 1.0% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.4%  
69 2% 99.0%  
70 1.5% 97%  
71 3% 95%  
72 2% 92%  
73 11% 90%  
74 37% 78% Median
75 7% 41%  
76 11% 34% Last Result
77 4% 23%  
78 3% 19%  
79 5% 16%  
80 4% 10%  
81 1.1% 7%  
82 4% 6%  
83 0.3% 1.2%  
84 0.4% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 2% 99.1%  
67 3% 97%  
68 6% 94% Last Result
69 4% 88%  
70 4% 84%  
71 37% 81% Median
72 13% 44%  
73 7% 30%  
74 8% 23%  
75 6% 15%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 7%  
78 0.9% 5%  
79 4% 5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 0.7% 99.5%  
63 1.4% 98.8%  
64 0.7% 97%  
65 2% 97%  
66 13% 95%  
67 6% 82%  
68 5% 76%  
69 11% 71%  
70 5% 60%  
71 37% 55% Median
72 4% 18%  
73 3% 14%  
74 4% 10%  
75 1.3% 7%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 0.3% 2%  
79 1.1% 1.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.6%  
59 0.6% 99.4%  
60 1.4% 98.9%  
61 2% 97%  
62 5% 95%  
63 6% 90%  
64 8% 84%  
65 10% 76%  
66 6% 66%  
67 4% 60%  
68 39% 57% Median
69 8% 18%  
70 4% 10%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.4%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.5%  
54 0.4% 99.2%  
55 3% 98.8%  
56 4% 96%  
57 2% 92%  
58 11% 90%  
59 5% 79%  
60 5% 74%  
61 43% 69% Median
62 14% 25%  
63 2% 12%  
64 6% 10%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.3% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.1%  
52 4% 98%  
53 6% 94%  
54 13% 88%  
55 9% 75%  
56 41% 66% Median
57 4% 25%  
58 4% 21%  
59 8% 17%  
60 2% 9% Last Result
61 5% 7%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.2% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.8%  
65 0.5% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.3%  
36 1.2% 98.7%  
37 0.9% 98%  
38 2% 97%  
39 5% 94%  
40 7% 90%  
41 10% 82%  
42 6% 72%  
43 7% 66%  
44 39% 59% Median
45 3% 20%  
46 6% 16%  
47 2% 10%  
48 2% 7%  
49 0.7% 5%  
50 2% 4%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 0.6% 99.6%  
29 0.7% 98.9%  
30 3% 98%  
31 1.2% 95%  
32 2% 94%  
33 4% 92%  
34 5% 88%  
35 16% 83% Last Result
36 38% 68% Median
37 5% 30%  
38 3% 24%  
39 6% 21%  
40 6% 16%  
41 1.3% 9%  
42 2% 8%  
43 5% 6%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations