Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 11–17 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.6% 21.9–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
Høyre 25.0% 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.3–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.1% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 42–46 41–47 40–48 38–50
Høyre 45 35 33–39 32–40 31–40 29–41
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 24–29 23–30 23–30 21–31
Senterpartiet 19 25 23–28 23–29 22–29 20–31
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 11–16 10–17 9–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 12 11–14 10–15 9–15 9–16
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 2–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–9 2–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 0.9% 99.2%  
40 2% 98%  
41 5% 96%  
42 19% 90%  
43 16% 72%  
44 24% 56% Median
45 20% 32%  
46 3% 12%  
47 5% 8%  
48 0.9% 3%  
49 0.7% 2% Last Result
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 1.1% 99.4%  
31 1.2% 98%  
32 6% 97%  
33 9% 91%  
34 14% 82%  
35 24% 69% Median
36 27% 45%  
37 3% 18%  
38 4% 15%  
39 3% 11%  
40 6% 7%  
41 0.4% 0.7%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 0.5% 99.4%  
23 7% 98.9%  
24 4% 92%  
25 9% 88%  
26 28% 79%  
27 12% 51% Last Result, Median
28 29% 40%  
29 5% 10%  
30 3% 5%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.3%  
22 3% 98%  
23 23% 95%  
24 17% 72%  
25 11% 54% Median
26 12% 43%  
27 9% 31%  
28 12% 22%  
29 8% 10%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.9% 1.1%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 0.7% 99.7%  
10 3% 99.0%  
11 21% 96% Last Result
12 13% 75%  
13 37% 61% Median
14 12% 24%  
15 5% 11%  
16 3% 6%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.9%  
9 3% 99.6%  
10 6% 97%  
11 19% 91%  
12 31% 72% Median
13 25% 41%  
14 8% 16%  
15 6% 8%  
16 0.9% 1.3%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 47% 93% Median
3 0% 47%  
4 0% 47%  
5 0% 47%  
6 0.9% 47%  
7 27% 46%  
8 11% 19%  
9 7% 8%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 6% 99.9%  
2 4% 94%  
3 36% 90%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0.5% 53%  
7 22% 53% Median
8 26% 31% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 0.8% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 81% 99.8% Median
3 0.3% 19%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0.6% 19%  
7 5% 18%  
8 10% 13% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 100% 95–104 93–105 92–105 90–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 98 100% 95–104 93–104 91–105 89–107
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 100% 92–99 91–101 90–103 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.7% 90–99 89–100 88–101 85–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 73% 84–91 81–92 80–93 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 75% 82–91 81–92 79–92 77–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 84 27% 78–85 77–88 76–89 74–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 21% 78–86 77–87 76–88 74–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0% 70–79 69–80 68–81 66–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 71 0% 65–74 65–76 64–78 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 66–73 65–73 64–75 62–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 65 0% 62–69 61–71 59–72 57–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 62 0% 59–66 57–66 56–67 54–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 54–60 53–60 52–62 50–64
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 44 0% 39–47 38–49 37–50 36–53
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 30–38 30–39 29–42 27–44

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.5% 99.7%  
91 1.1% 99.2%  
92 2% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 7% 93%  
96 4% 86%  
97 20% 82%  
98 7% 62%  
99 10% 55%  
100 4% 45%  
101 9% 41% Median
102 6% 32%  
103 15% 26%  
104 2% 11%  
105 7% 8%  
106 0.5% 1.4%  
107 0.4% 0.9%  
108 0.1% 0.5%  
109 0.3% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.9% 99.5%  
91 1.3% 98.5%  
92 2% 97%  
93 1.4% 95%  
94 2% 94%  
95 3% 92%  
96 4% 89% Median
97 29% 85%  
98 13% 56%  
99 11% 44%  
100 11% 33%  
101 3% 21%  
102 3% 18%  
103 3% 15%  
104 7% 12%  
105 2% 4%  
106 0.3% 2%  
107 1.3% 2%  
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 1.3% 99.8%  
89 0.4% 98.5%  
90 0.9% 98%  
91 2% 97%  
92 6% 95%  
93 11% 88%  
94 8% 78%  
95 20% 70%  
96 20% 49% Median
97 5% 30%  
98 6% 25%  
99 9% 18%  
100 4% 10%  
101 2% 6%  
102 1.4% 4%  
103 0.9% 3%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.7% Majority
86 0.6% 99.4%  
87 1.1% 98.8%  
88 1.5% 98%  
89 5% 96%  
90 17% 91%  
91 4% 74%  
92 7% 70%  
93 4% 62%  
94 5% 58% Median
95 17% 53%  
96 13% 36%  
97 6% 23%  
98 6% 17%  
99 6% 11%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.1% 4%  
102 2% 2%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.5%  
79 0.8% 99.1%  
80 2% 98% Last Result
81 2% 96%  
82 3% 94%  
83 1.0% 92%  
84 18% 91% Median
85 26% 73% Majority
86 4% 47%  
87 8% 42%  
88 13% 34%  
89 4% 21%  
90 5% 17%  
91 6% 12%  
92 2% 6%  
93 3% 5%  
94 1.3% 2%  
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
78 0.6% 99.3%  
79 1.3% 98.7%  
80 2% 97%  
81 4% 96%  
82 5% 92%  
83 3% 87%  
84 9% 84%  
85 4% 75% Majority
86 28% 71%  
87 5% 43%  
88 9% 38% Median
89 3% 29%  
90 14% 26%  
91 5% 11%  
92 5% 6%  
93 0.6% 1.5%  
94 0.2% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.4% 0.4%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 1.3% 99.4%  
76 3% 98%  
77 2% 95%  
78 6% 94%  
79 5% 88%  
80 4% 83%  
81 13% 79%  
82 8% 66%  
83 4% 58% Median
84 26% 53%  
85 18% 27% Majority
86 1.0% 9%  
87 3% 8%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 4% Last Result
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 1.1% 99.4%  
76 1.1% 98%  
77 3% 97%  
78 19% 95%  
79 3% 75% Last Result
80 10% 72%  
81 4% 63%  
82 21% 59% Median
83 11% 38%  
84 6% 27%  
85 5% 21% Majority
86 9% 15%  
87 3% 6%  
88 1.4% 4%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 0.3% 2%  
91 1.4% 2%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.6% 99.5%  
67 0.9% 98.9%  
68 0.9% 98%  
69 5% 97%  
70 7% 92%  
71 4% 85%  
72 6% 81%  
73 16% 76%  
74 20% 60%  
75 5% 40%  
76 5% 35% Last Result, Median
77 16% 30%  
78 3% 14%  
79 4% 11%  
80 2% 7%  
81 4% 5%  
82 0.6% 0.9%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 1.3% 99.6%  
63 0.3% 98%  
64 2% 98%  
65 7% 96%  
66 3% 88%  
67 3% 85%  
68 3% 82%  
69 11% 79%  
70 11% 67%  
71 13% 56% Median
72 29% 44%  
73 4% 15%  
74 3% 11%  
75 2% 8%  
76 1.4% 6%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.2% 3%  
79 0.9% 1.4%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.6%  
63 0.8% 99.0%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 7% 93%  
67 21% 86%  
68 7% 66% Last Result
69 20% 58% Median
70 15% 38%  
71 4% 23%  
72 7% 18%  
73 7% 11%  
74 2% 5%  
75 0.6% 3%  
76 0.3% 2%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.3% 99.5%  
59 2% 99.2%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 95%  
62 12% 92%  
63 6% 80%  
64 18% 74% Median
65 18% 56%  
66 12% 38%  
67 8% 26%  
68 8% 19%  
69 4% 11%  
70 2% 7%  
71 1.3% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.4%  
75 0.2% 1.0%  
76 0.7% 0.8%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.5%  
56 0.9% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 3% 95%  
59 8% 92%  
60 14% 84%  
61 6% 69%  
62 19% 64% Median
63 20% 45%  
64 12% 25%  
65 3% 13%  
66 7% 11%  
67 2% 4%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.7%  
51 1.0% 98.8%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 9% 92%  
55 28% 83%  
56 9% 55%  
57 11% 46% Median
58 15% 34%  
59 6% 20%  
60 9% 13% Last Result
61 1.3% 4%  
62 0.9% 3%  
63 0.4% 2%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 4% 99.5%  
38 5% 96%  
39 4% 90%  
40 5% 87%  
41 8% 82%  
42 3% 74%  
43 7% 71%  
44 23% 64% Median
45 10% 42%  
46 15% 32%  
47 7% 17%  
48 4% 10%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 4%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.9%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.8% 99.5%  
28 1.0% 98.7%  
29 2% 98%  
30 7% 96%  
31 7% 89%  
32 17% 82%  
33 15% 65%  
34 22% 50% Median
35 6% 28% Last Result
36 8% 22%  
37 3% 14%  
38 5% 11%  
39 2% 6%  
40 0.6% 4%  
41 0.8% 4%  
42 0.5% 3%  
43 0.6% 2%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations