Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 24–28 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.5% 19.7–23.5% 19.2–24.1% 18.7–24.6% 17.9–25.6%
Høyre 25.0% 19.8% 18.0–21.7% 17.5–22.3% 17.1–22.8% 16.3–23.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.5% 15.9–19.4% 15.4–20.0% 15.0–20.4% 14.2–21.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.7% 12.2–15.4% 11.8–15.9% 11.4–16.3% 10.7–17.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.5% 7.3–10.0% 7.0–10.3% 6.7–10.7% 6.2–11.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.1% 4.1–7.5% 3.7–8.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.8% 2.6–6.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 36–44 35–44 34–44 33–46
Høyre 45 35 32–39 31–40 30–41 28–43
Senterpartiet 19 31 29–36 28–37 27–38 25–40
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 21–27 20–29 20–29 18–31
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–17 12–18 11–19 10–21
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–12 8–12 7–13 2–14
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–3 0–8 0–8 0–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.7%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 0.9% 98%  
35 3% 97%  
36 6% 94%  
37 10% 88%  
38 11% 78%  
39 9% 67%  
40 9% 57% Median
41 15% 48%  
42 14% 33%  
43 5% 19%  
44 12% 13%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.2% 0.6%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.0% 99.4%  
30 3% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 9% 92%  
33 9% 83%  
34 15% 74%  
35 11% 59% Median
36 11% 47%  
37 7% 37%  
38 11% 29%  
39 10% 18%  
40 4% 8%  
41 2% 4%  
42 0.8% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.5%  
45 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 0.8% 99.4%  
27 2% 98.6%  
28 3% 96%  
29 16% 93%  
30 14% 78%  
31 17% 63% Median
32 7% 46%  
33 11% 39%  
34 5% 29%  
35 11% 24%  
36 8% 13%  
37 3% 6%  
38 1.2% 3%  
39 0.9% 2%  
40 0.6% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 1.0% 98.9%  
20 4% 98%  
21 5% 94%  
22 5% 89%  
23 21% 84%  
24 10% 64%  
25 19% 54% Median
26 16% 35%  
27 9% 19% Last Result
28 3% 10%  
29 4% 6%  
30 1.5% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.7%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.2% Last Result
12 4% 97%  
13 17% 94%  
14 14% 77%  
15 18% 63% Median
16 20% 45%  
17 16% 25%  
18 5% 9%  
19 2% 4%  
20 1.0% 2%  
21 0.6% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 1.0% 99.9%  
3 0.4% 98.9%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 3% 98%  
8 7% 96%  
9 31% 89%  
10 18% 58% Median
11 27% 40%  
12 8% 12%  
13 3% 5%  
14 1.2% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 35% 96%  
3 0% 60%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0.4% 60%  
7 13% 60% Median
8 33% 47%  
9 9% 14%  
10 4% 5%  
11 1.2% 1.4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 63% 97% Median
3 0.3% 34%  
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 0.5% 34%  
7 14% 33%  
8 14% 20% Last Result
9 4% 6%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 35% 93%  
2 18% 58% Median
3 31% 40%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0.2% 9%  
7 4% 9%  
8 4% 5% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 103 100% 98–108 96–108 95–110 93–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 100% 94–105 93–105 92–107 89–109
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 99 100% 93–103 91–105 91–106 89–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 97 99.9% 91–102 91–104 89–104 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98% 88–97 87–99 85–100 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 74% 82–92 82–95 80–95 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 84 45% 79–89 78–91 76–91 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 76 2% 72–81 70–82 69–84 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.2% 69–79 68–80 67–81 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 72 0% 67–77 66–78 65–78 63–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 66 0% 61–71 60–72 59–74 57–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 64 0% 59–68 58–70 56–71 54–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 60 0% 55–65 54–65 53–66 50–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 50–60 50–60 48–60 47–63
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 42 0% 38–46 37–48 35–50 34–51
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 38 0% 33–43 32–45 32–47 29–50

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.7%  
93 0.7% 99.5%  
94 0.6% 98.9%  
95 1.3% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 3% 95%  
98 5% 91%  
99 12% 87%  
100 5% 75%  
101 10% 71%  
102 10% 61%  
103 3% 51% Median
104 18% 48%  
105 4% 29%  
106 10% 25%  
107 4% 15%  
108 6% 10%  
109 1.1% 5%  
110 3% 4%  
111 0.7% 1.2%  
112 0.2% 0.5%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
89 0.4% 99.6%  
90 0.8% 99.2%  
91 0.8% 98%  
92 2% 98%  
93 2% 95%  
94 10% 93%  
95 2% 83%  
96 5% 81%  
97 15% 76%  
98 8% 61% Median
99 9% 53%  
100 3% 45%  
101 8% 42%  
102 6% 33%  
103 7% 28%  
104 9% 21%  
105 7% 12%  
106 1.1% 5%  
107 2% 4%  
108 0.6% 1.1%  
109 0.3% 0.6%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.7%  
90 0.3% 99.3%  
91 4% 98.9%  
92 2% 95%  
93 4% 93%  
94 6% 89%  
95 6% 83% Median
96 10% 77%  
97 6% 67%  
98 7% 61%  
99 22% 54%  
100 10% 32%  
101 5% 22%  
102 4% 16%  
103 3% 12%  
104 3% 9%  
105 3% 6%  
106 0.7% 3%  
107 0.6% 2% Last Result
108 0.8% 1.4%  
109 0.2% 0.6%  
110 0.2% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.5%  
88 1.0% 99.2%  
89 0.9% 98%  
90 0.7% 97%  
91 11% 97%  
92 3% 85%  
93 4% 83%  
94 11% 79%  
95 5% 68%  
96 12% 63% Median
97 7% 51%  
98 6% 44%  
99 4% 38%  
100 12% 34%  
101 3% 22%  
102 10% 19%  
103 1.4% 9%  
104 7% 8%  
105 0.7% 1.3%  
106 0.2% 0.6%  
107 0.3% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.5% 99.6%  
84 0.8% 99.0%  
85 1.4% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 5% 95%  
88 3% 90%  
89 5% 88%  
90 10% 83%  
91 10% 73%  
92 9% 62%  
93 19% 53% Median
94 4% 34%  
95 6% 30%  
96 4% 24%  
97 12% 20%  
98 2% 9%  
99 3% 7%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.3% 0.9%  
102 0.3% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.3%  
79 0.8% 99.0% Last Result
80 2% 98%  
81 1.4% 97%  
82 12% 95%  
83 4% 83%  
84 5% 79%  
85 18% 74% Majority
86 4% 56% Median
87 9% 52%  
88 4% 44%  
89 12% 40%  
90 5% 28%  
91 11% 22%  
92 2% 11%  
93 2% 9%  
94 0.6% 7%  
95 5% 6%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.3% 0.4%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.7%  
75 0.2% 99.1%  
76 1.5% 98.9%  
77 1.1% 97% Last Result
78 4% 96%  
79 12% 93%  
80 2% 81%  
81 4% 78%  
82 8% 75%  
83 9% 67% Median
84 13% 58%  
85 9% 45% Majority
86 4% 36%  
87 4% 32%  
88 17% 28%  
89 3% 11%  
90 3% 8%  
91 3% 5%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.1%  
94 0.4% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 0.5% 99.4%  
69 3% 98.9%  
70 4% 96%  
71 2% 93%  
72 12% 91%  
73 4% 79%  
74 6% 75% Median
75 4% 69%  
76 19% 65%  
77 9% 46%  
78 10% 37%  
79 10% 27%  
80 5% 16%  
81 2% 12%  
82 5% 10%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.4% 3%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.6% 99.7%  
66 0.6% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 5% 94%  
70 10% 90%  
71 6% 79%  
72 8% 73%  
73 9% 65% Median
74 9% 56%  
75 11% 47%  
76 4% 36% Last Result
77 13% 32%  
78 2% 19%  
79 10% 17%  
80 2% 6%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.1%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 1.1% 99.2%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 10% 95%  
68 6% 85% Last Result
69 9% 79%  
70 8% 70%  
71 6% 62% Median
72 15% 56%  
73 6% 40%  
74 5% 35%  
75 11% 30%  
76 8% 19%  
77 3% 11%  
78 7% 8%  
79 0.7% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.7% 99.4%  
59 3% 98.7%  
60 1.1% 96%  
61 6% 95%  
62 5% 89%  
63 11% 85%  
64 4% 74% Median
65 18% 70%  
66 3% 52%  
67 10% 48%  
68 10% 38%  
69 4% 29%  
70 12% 24%  
71 5% 13%  
72 3% 8%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.2% 3%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.6% 1.0%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.3%  
56 2% 98.9%  
57 1.0% 97%  
58 1.4% 96%  
59 5% 94%  
60 6% 89%  
61 4% 83%  
62 12% 79% Median
63 13% 67%  
64 13% 54%  
65 8% 41%  
66 7% 33%  
67 12% 26%  
68 5% 14%  
69 3% 9%  
70 3% 7%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.5%  
52 1.2% 99.0%  
53 2% 98%  
54 4% 96%  
55 3% 92%  
56 3% 89%  
57 15% 86%  
58 7% 71%  
59 5% 64%  
60 12% 59% Median
61 14% 47%  
62 10% 33%  
63 4% 24%  
64 6% 20%  
65 10% 14%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.4% 2%  
69 0.6% 1.2%  
70 0.1% 0.6%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.7%  
47 0.5% 99.6%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 1.2% 97%  
50 8% 96%  
51 3% 88%  
52 6% 85%  
53 13% 79%  
54 10% 66%  
55 11% 56% Median
56 9% 45%  
57 8% 35%  
58 7% 28%  
59 10% 21%  
60 9% 11% Last Result
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.6% 1.2%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.7%  
35 1.3% 98.5%  
36 2% 97%  
37 3% 96%  
38 16% 93%  
39 7% 77% Median
40 7% 70%  
41 5% 63%  
42 16% 58%  
43 12% 42%  
44 12% 30%  
45 3% 17%  
46 6% 14%  
47 2% 7%  
48 2% 6%  
49 1.4% 4%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.4% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.3%  
31 0.6% 99.0%  
32 4% 98%  
33 7% 95%  
34 13% 88%  
35 10% 74% Last Result, Median
36 5% 65%  
37 6% 60%  
38 5% 53%  
39 10% 48%  
40 6% 38%  
41 6% 33%  
42 9% 27%  
43 9% 18%  
44 3% 9%  
45 2% 5%  
46 0.7% 3%  
47 0.7% 3%  
48 0.3% 2%  
49 1.0% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations