Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 27 February–2 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.7% 21.5–28.6%
Høyre 25.0% 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–20.0% 15.6–20.4% 15.0–21.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Rødt 2.4% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 42–47 42–49 41–49 40–51
Høyre 45 32 29–35 28–35 28–35 26–37
Senterpartiet 19 30 28–33 27–33 26–34 24–36
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–28 23–29 22–29 20–31
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–14 10–15 10–16 9–17
Rødt 1 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–11 7–11 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.5%  
41 3% 98.7%  
42 7% 95%  
43 27% 88%  
44 18% 61% Median
45 16% 43%  
46 9% 27%  
47 11% 18%  
48 2% 8%  
49 4% 6% Last Result
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.8% 1.0%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.7% 99.7%  
27 1.1% 99.0%  
28 4% 98%  
29 7% 94%  
30 18% 86%  
31 13% 68%  
32 22% 55% Median
33 10% 33%  
34 9% 23%  
35 12% 14%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.7%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 0.6% 99.5%  
26 1.4% 98.9%  
27 6% 97%  
28 12% 91%  
29 20% 79%  
30 16% 58% Median
31 23% 42%  
32 6% 19%  
33 9% 13%  
34 2% 4%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.6%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.8%  
21 0.7% 99.3%  
22 1.2% 98.6%  
23 3% 97%  
24 11% 94%  
25 17% 83%  
26 17% 66% Median
27 28% 49% Last Result
28 12% 21%  
29 6% 8%  
30 1.5% 2%  
31 0.8% 1.0%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.9%  
10 9% 99.3%  
11 15% 90% Last Result
12 14% 75%  
13 42% 61% Median
14 10% 19%  
15 5% 9%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.8% 1.0%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 1.0% 100%  
3 0% 99.0%  
4 0% 99.0%  
5 0% 99.0%  
6 0.2% 99.0%  
7 2% 98.7%  
8 23% 97%  
9 34% 74% Median
10 20% 40%  
11 15% 20%  
12 3% 5%  
13 1.2% 1.5%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 4% 99.7%  
3 0.8% 96%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 7% 95%  
8 23% 88%  
9 31% 65% Median
10 23% 33%  
11 8% 11%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 24% 99.2%  
2 5% 75%  
3 44% 70% Median
4 0% 26%  
5 0% 26%  
6 0.1% 26%  
7 20% 26%  
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 21% 99.8%  
2 69% 79% Median
3 0% 10%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 1.0% 10%  
7 5% 9%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 105 100% 101–109 100–110 100–111 97–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 100 100% 95–102 94–104 93–105 92–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 96 100% 93–100 92–102 91–103 89–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 100% 92–99 91–101 90–102 88–105
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 94 99.9% 90–97 89–98 88–99 86–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 83% 84–91 83–92 82–93 80–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 87 72% 83–91 82–91 81–93 79–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 2% 74–82 73–82 72–83 70–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0.1% 71–78 70–79 70–80 68–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 73 0% 69–76 67–77 66–78 63–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–69 56–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 59 0% 57–64 56–65 55–67 53–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 54–62 53–62 52–63 50–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 54–60 53–61 53–62 51–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 37 0% 34–41 34–43 32–43 31–45
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 32–39 32–41 31–43 29–45

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.8% 99.3%  
99 1.0% 98.5%  
100 3% 98%  
101 6% 95%  
102 11% 89%  
103 13% 79%  
104 15% 66%  
105 6% 51% Median
106 5% 45%  
107 9% 40%  
108 17% 31%  
109 7% 14%  
110 3% 7%  
111 2% 4%  
112 1.4% 2%  
113 0.7% 1.0%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0.2% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.6% 99.7%  
93 2% 99.1%  
94 3% 97%  
95 7% 94%  
96 7% 86%  
97 11% 79%  
98 3% 68%  
99 11% 65% Median
100 6% 54%  
101 15% 48%  
102 24% 33%  
103 3% 9%  
104 3% 6%  
105 1.1% 3%  
106 1.5% 2%  
107 0.3% 0.8%  
108 0.3% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.4% 99.7%  
90 0.9% 99.3%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 96%  
93 13% 93%  
94 16% 81%  
95 8% 64%  
96 9% 56% Median
97 11% 47%  
98 7% 36%  
99 5% 29%  
100 16% 24%  
101 2% 8%  
102 3% 6%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.3% 1.2%  
105 0.2% 0.9%  
106 0.6% 0.7%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 1.1% 99.5%  
90 2% 98%  
91 3% 97%  
92 6% 93%  
93 5% 87%  
94 24% 83%  
95 11% 59%  
96 6% 48% Median
97 4% 41%  
98 12% 37%  
99 18% 25%  
100 2% 8%  
101 2% 6%  
102 1.0% 3%  
103 2% 2%  
104 0.2% 0.7%  
105 0.4% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 1.0% 99.8%  
87 0.9% 98.8%  
88 2% 98%  
89 2% 95%  
90 6% 93%  
91 2% 87%  
92 13% 85%  
93 15% 72% Median
94 13% 57%  
95 16% 44%  
96 14% 28%  
97 7% 14%  
98 2% 7%  
99 3% 5%  
100 1.1% 2%  
101 0.3% 0.9%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.8% 99.9%  
81 0.6% 99.1%  
82 2% 98.5%  
83 4% 96%  
84 9% 93%  
85 23% 83% Majority
86 9% 60%  
87 7% 51% Median
88 10% 44%  
89 13% 35%  
90 4% 21%  
91 12% 18%  
92 3% 6%  
93 0.7% 3%  
94 1.2% 2%  
95 0.9% 1.1%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.6%  
80 1.1% 99.2%  
81 3% 98%  
82 5% 95%  
83 3% 90%  
84 15% 87%  
85 8% 72% Majority
86 10% 65% Median
87 11% 55%  
88 5% 44%  
89 19% 39%  
90 7% 19%  
91 9% 13%  
92 1.2% 4%  
93 0.9% 3%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 1.1% 99.4%  
72 1.4% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 6% 95%  
75 13% 89%  
76 8% 75% Last Result
77 13% 68% Median
78 6% 55%  
79 11% 48%  
80 12% 37%  
81 12% 25%  
82 9% 13%  
83 2% 5%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.5% 2% Majority
86 0.7% 1.1%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
69 0.8% 99.1%  
70 3% 98%  
71 6% 95%  
72 19% 89%  
73 8% 70%  
74 12% 62% Median
75 16% 50%  
76 10% 34%  
77 7% 25%  
78 10% 18%  
79 3% 8%  
80 3% 5%  
81 0.8% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.6% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.3%  
65 0.3% 99.1%  
66 2% 98.8%  
67 3% 97%  
68 2% 94%  
69 16% 92%  
70 5% 76%  
71 7% 71%  
72 11% 64% Median
73 9% 53%  
74 8% 44%  
75 16% 36%  
76 13% 19%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 1.4% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 96%  
60 7% 93%  
61 17% 86%  
62 9% 69%  
63 5% 60% Median
64 6% 55%  
65 15% 49%  
66 13% 34%  
67 11% 21%  
68 6% 11%  
69 3% 5%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.8% 1.5%  
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 1.0% 99.5%  
54 0.8% 98.6%  
55 2% 98%  
56 4% 96%  
57 4% 92%  
58 22% 89%  
59 21% 66%  
60 7% 46% Median
61 4% 39%  
62 7% 34%  
63 5% 27%  
64 14% 23%  
65 5% 8%  
66 1.0% 4%  
67 0.8% 3%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.8%  
51 1.2% 99.3%  
52 0.7% 98%  
53 3% 97%  
54 4% 94%  
55 5% 90%  
56 9% 85%  
57 35% 76%  
58 6% 41% Median
59 4% 34%  
60 7% 30%  
61 3% 24%  
62 16% 21%  
63 4% 5%  
64 0.4% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.6%  
52 0.7% 99.3%  
53 4% 98.6%  
54 9% 94%  
55 14% 86%  
56 17% 71%  
57 17% 54% Median
58 9% 38%  
59 9% 29%  
60 13% 20% Last Result
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.5% 2%  
64 0.2% 2%  
65 1.3% 1.4%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.8%  
31 1.0% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 2% 97%  
34 16% 95%  
35 9% 79%  
36 7% 70%  
37 16% 63% Median
38 5% 47%  
39 9% 42%  
40 13% 33%  
41 12% 20%  
42 2% 8%  
43 3% 5%  
44 0.7% 2%  
45 1.1% 1.5%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.7%  
30 1.3% 99.1%  
31 2% 98%  
32 7% 95%  
33 12% 89%  
34 10% 77%  
35 13% 67% Last Result, Median
36 16% 54%  
37 10% 38%  
38 8% 28%  
39 10% 20%  
40 4% 10%  
41 1.2% 6%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.1% 3%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations