Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 3–4 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.8% 24.1–27.6% 23.6–28.2% 23.2–28.6% 22.4–29.5%
Høyre 25.0% 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.2% 17.5–24.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.9% 14.5–17.5% 14.1–17.9% 13.8–18.3% 13.1–19.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Rødt 2.4% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Venstre 4.4% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 43–49 43–51 42–52 40–54
Høyre 45 36 34–39 32–40 32–41 30–42
Senterpartiet 19 30 26–34 25–34 24–34 23–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–24 18–24 18–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 11–14 10–15 10–16 9–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 12 10–15 10–15 10–15 9–17
Rødt 1 9 7–10 2–11 2–11 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–7 0–8
Venstre 8 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–6

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 1.3% 99.1%  
42 2% 98%  
43 10% 96%  
44 11% 85%  
45 25% 75% Median
46 12% 50%  
47 21% 38%  
48 3% 16%  
49 6% 14% Last Result
50 2% 8%  
51 2% 6%  
52 2% 4%  
53 0.5% 1.1%  
54 0.4% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 99.5%  
32 5% 98%  
33 3% 93%  
34 18% 91%  
35 11% 73%  
36 25% 63% Median
37 8% 38%  
38 18% 30%  
39 5% 11%  
40 3% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 1.0% 1.4%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9%  
24 3% 98.7%  
25 5% 96%  
26 8% 90%  
27 4% 83%  
28 9% 79%  
29 17% 70%  
30 9% 53% Median
31 16% 44%  
32 6% 29%  
33 5% 22%  
34 15% 17%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.8%  
17 2% 99.5%  
18 9% 98%  
19 13% 89%  
20 15% 76%  
21 28% 61% Median
22 8% 33%  
23 9% 25%  
24 12% 16%  
25 3% 5%  
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 0.8% 99.7%  
10 9% 98.9%  
11 22% 90% Last Result
12 27% 68% Median
13 22% 41%  
14 10% 19%  
15 6% 9%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 15% 98%  
11 20% 83%  
12 22% 63% Median
13 22% 41%  
14 7% 19%  
15 10% 12%  
16 1.2% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 5% 100%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 8% 95%  
8 19% 87%  
9 30% 68% Median
10 30% 38%  
11 7% 8%  
12 1.1% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 56% 88% Median
2 13% 32%  
3 15% 19%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 57% 93% Median
2 36% 36%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0.1% 0.5%  
7 0.3% 0.5%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 81 110 100% 105–112 104–113 103–114 101–116
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 102 100% 98–106 97–106 95–107 94–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 80 100 100% 96–104 95–105 94–105 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 97 100% 92–100 91–101 90–102 88–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 90 89% 84–93 83–95 83–96 82–98
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 90 95% 86–93 84–94 82–95 81–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 89 86% 84–91 83–93 82–94 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 1.3% 72–81 71–82 71–84 69–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0.1% 71–79 70–80 69–81 67–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 72 0% 69–77 68–78 67–79 65–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 59 0% 57–64 56–65 55–66 53–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 54–61 54–63 54–65 52–66
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 58 0% 56–63 54–64 53–65 51–67
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 54–61 52–62 52–63 50–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 39 0% 36–42 35–43 34–44 33–46
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 28–37 27–38 27–39 25–42

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0.2% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.7%  
101 1.1% 99.6%  
102 0.6% 98.5%  
103 3% 98%  
104 5% 95%  
105 3% 90%  
106 13% 87%  
107 6% 74%  
108 5% 69% Median
109 9% 63%  
110 23% 54%  
111 7% 31%  
112 16% 24%  
113 5% 8%  
114 2% 4%  
115 0.5% 2%  
116 0.6% 1.1%  
117 0.4% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.3% 99.9%  
94 0.7% 99.6%  
95 2% 98.9%  
96 2% 97%  
97 5% 95%  
98 6% 90%  
99 4% 84%  
100 10% 80% Median
101 19% 70%  
102 11% 51%  
103 11% 40%  
104 8% 29%  
105 10% 21%  
106 7% 11%  
107 2% 4%  
108 0.5% 2%  
109 0.7% 2%  
110 0.3% 0.9%  
111 0.1% 0.6%  
112 0.4% 0.5%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.4% 99.8%  
92 0.7% 99.5%  
93 1.2% 98.8%  
94 2% 98%  
95 2% 96%  
96 6% 94%  
97 10% 88%  
98 7% 78%  
99 5% 71% Median
100 20% 65%  
101 11% 46%  
102 9% 35%  
103 12% 26%  
104 8% 14%  
105 4% 6%  
106 1.0% 2%  
107 0.5% 1.4%  
108 0.3% 0.9%  
109 0.3% 0.6%  
110 0% 0.4%  
111 0.3% 0.4%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.5% 99.7%  
89 0.8% 99.2%  
90 2% 98%  
91 3% 97%  
92 5% 93%  
93 3% 88%  
94 12% 86%  
95 8% 73%  
96 8% 65% Median
97 10% 57%  
98 9% 47%  
99 12% 38%  
100 18% 26%  
101 4% 8%  
102 2% 4%  
103 2% 2%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 2% 99.6%  
83 3% 98%  
84 6% 95%  
85 5% 89% Majority
86 3% 84%  
87 4% 81%  
88 7% 77% Median
89 19% 70%  
90 8% 51%  
91 18% 43%  
92 8% 25%  
93 8% 17%  
94 2% 9%  
95 4% 7%  
96 1.0% 3%  
97 0.9% 1.5%  
98 0.1% 0.6%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.4% 99.9%  
82 3% 99.5%  
83 0.8% 97%  
84 1.2% 96%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 8% 92%  
87 4% 83%  
88 7% 80%  
89 13% 73% Median
90 17% 60%  
91 14% 43%  
92 8% 29%  
93 12% 21%  
94 4% 9%  
95 3% 5%  
96 1.4% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.5% 99.1%  
81 0.9% 98.6%  
82 2% 98%  
83 4% 96%  
84 5% 91%  
85 10% 86% Majority
86 9% 76%  
87 5% 67% Median
88 6% 62%  
89 16% 56%  
90 26% 39%  
91 4% 13%  
92 4% 10%  
93 3% 6%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.4% 1.0%  
96 0.1% 0.6%  
97 0.4% 0.4%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.7% 99.7%  
70 1.3% 99.0%  
71 3% 98%  
72 7% 94%  
73 5% 88%  
74 4% 83%  
75 4% 79%  
76 10% 75% Last Result, Median
77 13% 65%  
78 9% 52%  
79 19% 42%  
80 11% 23%  
81 3% 12%  
82 4% 9%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 1.3% Majority
86 0.4% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.9% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 98.9% Last Result
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 96%  
71 5% 93%  
72 8% 88%  
73 6% 79%  
74 9% 74%  
75 5% 64% Median
76 10% 59%  
77 8% 49%  
78 21% 40%  
79 12% 19%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.7%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.4%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96%  
69 18% 92%  
70 12% 74%  
71 9% 62% Median
72 10% 53%  
73 8% 43%  
74 8% 35%  
75 12% 27%  
76 3% 14%  
77 5% 12%  
78 3% 7%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.5%  
54 0.5% 98.9%  
55 2% 98%  
56 5% 96%  
57 16% 92%  
58 7% 76%  
59 23% 69% Median
60 9% 46%  
61 5% 37%  
62 6% 31%  
63 13% 26%  
64 3% 13%  
65 5% 10%  
66 3% 5%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 1.1% 1.5%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.3%  
54 9% 98%  
55 2% 89%  
56 16% 86%  
57 15% 71% Median
58 7% 56%  
59 21% 49%  
60 12% 28% Last Result
61 6% 16%  
62 2% 9%  
63 2% 7%  
64 1.3% 5%  
65 1.1% 3%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.7%  
52 0.9% 99.2%  
53 1.2% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 4% 94%  
56 23% 90%  
57 4% 67%  
58 26% 63% Median
59 6% 38%  
60 9% 32%  
61 3% 23%  
62 7% 20%  
63 6% 12%  
64 4% 7%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.7%  
51 1.1% 99.2%  
52 3% 98%  
53 3% 95%  
54 9% 92%  
55 16% 83%  
56 7% 67%  
57 26% 60% Median
58 7% 34%  
59 6% 28%  
60 3% 22%  
61 10% 19%  
62 6% 9%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.8% 1.5%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.2% 99.8%  
34 1.3% 98.6%  
35 3% 97%  
36 11% 95%  
37 8% 84%  
38 20% 76% Median
39 15% 56%  
40 22% 41%  
41 5% 18%  
42 5% 14%  
43 4% 9%  
44 2% 4%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.9%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 1.3% 99.2%  
27 3% 98%  
28 7% 95%  
29 4% 88%  
30 10% 84%  
31 10% 74%  
32 9% 64% Median
33 15% 55%  
34 8% 40%  
35 11% 32% Last Result
36 11% 21%  
37 5% 10%  
38 1.5% 6%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.3% 1.3%  
41 0.5% 1.0%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations