Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 3–9 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.8–26.4% 21.4–26.8% 20.6–27.7%
Høyre 25.0% 18.9% 17.3–20.6% 16.9–21.0% 16.5–21.5% 15.8–22.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.4% 16.8–20.0% 16.4–20.5% 16.0–20.9% 15.3–21.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.0–9.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.9–9.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9% 2.2–5.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–46 39–48 38–49 37–50
Høyre 45 33 30–38 29–38 29–38 27–40
Senterpartiet 19 33 30–37 29–38 29–39 28–40
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–27 20–28 19–28 18–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 9–16 9–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 12 10–14 10–14 9–15 9–16
Rødt 1 2 2–9 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–3 0–7 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 4% 97%  
40 7% 93%  
41 7% 86%  
42 12% 79%  
43 17% 67%  
44 15% 51% Median
45 19% 35%  
46 7% 16%  
47 3% 9%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3% Last Result
50 0.3% 0.6%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.7%  
28 1.1% 99.4%  
29 4% 98%  
30 6% 94%  
31 12% 88%  
32 15% 76%  
33 19% 61% Median
34 10% 42%  
35 12% 32%  
36 7% 20%  
37 2% 12%  
38 8% 10%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 0.9% 99.6%  
29 5% 98.7%  
30 11% 94%  
31 11% 83%  
32 12% 72%  
33 13% 60% Median
34 14% 47%  
35 8% 33%  
36 7% 25%  
37 8% 17%  
38 5% 9%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.0% 1.2%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.3%  
20 5% 97%  
21 10% 92%  
22 9% 82%  
23 14% 73%  
24 14% 59% Median
25 12% 45%  
26 14% 33%  
27 11% 19% Last Result
28 6% 8%  
29 1.3% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 9% 97%  
11 21% 89% Last Result
12 23% 68% Median
13 24% 45%  
14 13% 21%  
15 5% 8%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 3% 99.5%  
10 11% 96%  
11 24% 86%  
12 28% 61% Median
13 17% 33%  
14 11% 15%  
15 3% 4%  
16 1.1% 1.3%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100% Last Result
2 47% 94% Median
3 0% 47%  
4 0% 47%  
5 0% 47%  
6 0.3% 47%  
7 16% 47%  
8 19% 31%  
9 10% 12%  
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 71% 97% Median
3 0.2% 26%  
4 0% 26%  
5 0% 26%  
6 0.6% 26%  
7 12% 26%  
8 11% 14% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 40% 95%  
2 15% 55% Median
3 32% 40%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0.5% 8%  
7 6% 7%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 106 100% 101–111 100–112 99–112 97–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 103 100% 99–108 98–110 97–110 94–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 101 100% 97–106 96–107 94–108 92–110
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 97 100% 92–101 91–103 90–104 88–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 94 99.6% 89–99 88–99 87–101 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 91 97% 87–97 85–97 84–98 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 89 93% 85–94 83–95 83–96 81–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 8% 75–84 74–85 73–86 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 77 0.7% 73–81 72–82 71–83 69–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 75 0.4% 70–80 70–81 68–82 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 63 0% 58–68 57–69 57–70 55–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 56–67 54–67 54–68 53–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 53–62 52–65 51–65 50–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 52–59 50–61 50–62 48–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 39 0% 34–44 33–46 33–47 31–49
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 39 0% 35–43 34–45 34–46 32–48

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.3% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.5%  
98 0.8% 99.1%  
99 2% 98%  
100 3% 96%  
101 8% 93%  
102 6% 85%  
103 7% 79% Median
104 7% 72%  
105 9% 64%  
106 9% 56%  
107 10% 46%  
108 11% 36%  
109 8% 25%  
110 6% 17%  
111 3% 10%  
112 5% 7%  
113 0.9% 2%  
114 0.4% 0.8%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.7% 99.7%  
95 0.6% 99.0%  
96 0.5% 98%  
97 1.0% 98%  
98 4% 97%  
99 7% 92%  
100 12% 85%  
101 8% 73%  
102 9% 65%  
103 14% 56% Median
104 6% 42%  
105 6% 37%  
106 6% 31%  
107 5% 25%  
108 11% 20%  
109 4% 9%  
110 3% 5%  
111 1.2% 2%  
112 0.5% 0.8%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.6% 99.7%  
93 0.8% 99.1%  
94 1.3% 98%  
95 0.9% 97%  
96 4% 96%  
97 7% 92%  
98 6% 85%  
99 14% 79%  
100 12% 65%  
101 10% 53% Median
102 10% 43%  
103 6% 33%  
104 6% 27%  
105 8% 21%  
106 5% 13%  
107 5% 8%  
108 3% 3%  
109 0.4% 0.9%  
110 0.4% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.3% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 2% 99.3%  
90 2% 98%  
91 3% 96%  
92 4% 93%  
93 8% 89%  
94 11% 81% Median
95 9% 71%  
96 11% 62%  
97 11% 51%  
98 10% 40%  
99 14% 30%  
100 6% 16%  
101 2% 10%  
102 2% 8%  
103 3% 6%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.7%  
107 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.5% 99.6% Majority
86 1.4% 99.1%  
87 1.3% 98%  
88 3% 96%  
89 7% 93%  
90 7% 86%  
91 8% 79% Median
92 6% 71%  
93 10% 65%  
94 9% 55%  
95 9% 46%  
96 10% 37%  
97 8% 26%  
98 6% 18%  
99 8% 12%  
100 2% 4%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.4% 0.9%  
103 0.3% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.7%  
83 0.5% 99.3%  
84 1.3% 98.8%  
85 3% 97% Majority
86 3% 95%  
87 5% 92%  
88 15% 87%  
89 10% 72%  
90 8% 62%  
91 13% 53% Median
92 8% 41%  
93 6% 33%  
94 7% 27%  
95 5% 19%  
96 3% 14%  
97 8% 11%  
98 0.7% 3%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.5% 0.7%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100% Last Result
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.6% 99.7%  
82 0.8% 99.1%  
83 3% 98%  
84 2% 95%  
85 7% 93% Majority
86 7% 86%  
87 10% 79%  
88 16% 69%  
89 8% 53% Median
90 9% 45%  
91 11% 36%  
92 7% 25%  
93 7% 18%  
94 3% 11%  
95 4% 7%  
96 2% 3%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 1.1% 99.2%  
73 2% 98%  
74 5% 96%  
75 6% 91%  
76 11% 85% Last Result
77 9% 74%  
78 10% 65%  
79 13% 55% Median
80 8% 42%  
81 10% 34%  
82 6% 24%  
83 5% 18%  
84 6% 14%  
85 4% 8% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
69 0.7% 99.8%  
70 0.7% 99.1%  
71 2% 98%  
72 5% 97%  
73 5% 91%  
74 10% 87%  
75 13% 77%  
76 12% 64%  
77 12% 52% Median
78 8% 40%  
79 12% 33%  
80 7% 21%  
81 6% 14%  
82 5% 8%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.7% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.5%  
68 2% 99.1%  
69 2% 97%  
70 8% 96%  
71 6% 88%  
72 8% 82%  
73 10% 74% Median
74 9% 63%  
75 9% 54%  
76 10% 45%  
77 6% 35%  
78 8% 29%  
79 7% 21%  
80 7% 14%  
81 3% 7%  
82 1.3% 4%  
83 1.4% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 0.9% 99.2%  
57 5% 98%  
58 3% 93%  
59 6% 90%  
60 8% 83%  
61 11% 75% Median
62 10% 64%  
63 9% 54%  
64 9% 44%  
65 7% 36%  
66 7% 28%  
67 6% 21%  
68 8% 15%  
69 3% 7%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 1.5% 99.6%  
54 4% 98%  
55 1.1% 94%  
56 6% 93%  
57 6% 87%  
58 12% 81%  
59 11% 70% Median
60 6% 59%  
61 8% 53%  
62 11% 44%  
63 6% 33%  
64 7% 27%  
65 5% 20%  
66 4% 15%  
67 8% 11%  
68 1.2% 3%  
69 0.9% 1.5%  
70 0.3% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 99.5%  
51 3% 98%  
52 5% 96%  
53 3% 90%  
54 7% 87%  
55 7% 80%  
56 16% 73%  
57 12% 57% Median
58 8% 45%  
59 10% 37%  
60 10% 27%  
61 3% 17%  
62 4% 14%  
63 2% 10%  
64 3% 8%  
65 5% 5%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.7% 99.4%  
50 4% 98.8%  
51 4% 95%  
52 4% 91%  
53 11% 87%  
54 8% 76%  
55 14% 68%  
56 10% 54% Median
57 17% 43%  
58 9% 26%  
59 9% 17%  
60 3% 9% Last Result
61 2% 6%  
62 3% 4%  
63 1.1% 1.4%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.5%  
33 6% 98%  
34 6% 92%  
35 5% 86% Last Result
36 7% 81%  
37 10% 74% Median
38 9% 63%  
39 10% 54%  
40 6% 44%  
41 9% 39%  
42 10% 30%  
43 9% 19%  
44 3% 11%  
45 2% 7%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.3%  
34 6% 98%  
35 8% 92%  
36 11% 84%  
37 8% 73% Median
38 10% 65%  
39 10% 55%  
40 9% 44%  
41 13% 35%  
42 7% 22%  
43 7% 16%  
44 3% 8%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.4% 3%  
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations