Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 16–23 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.6% 24.8–28.5% 24.3–29.0% 23.9–29.5% 23.0–30.4%
Høyre 25.0% 23.2% 21.5–25.0% 21.0–25.6% 20.6–26.0% 19.8–26.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.6% 13.2–16.2% 12.8–16.6% 12.5–17.0% 11.9–17.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.7% 11.4–14.2% 11.1–14.6% 10.7–15.0% 10.2–15.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.6–10.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Venstre 4.4% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.4% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 49 44–53 44–54 43–55 41–56
Høyre 45 42 38–46 37–47 37–48 35–50
Senterpartiet 19 27 24–30 24–31 23–32 21–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–26 20–27 19–28 18–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 3 1–9 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 0–8 0–9
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 1.0% 99.2%  
43 2% 98%  
44 6% 96%  
45 4% 90%  
46 11% 85%  
47 8% 74%  
48 10% 66%  
49 8% 56% Last Result, Median
50 13% 48%  
51 16% 34%  
52 6% 19%  
53 7% 13%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.9% 1.2%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 0.8% 99.3%  
37 4% 98.6%  
38 5% 95%  
39 14% 89%  
40 9% 76%  
41 12% 67%  
42 14% 55% Median
43 12% 42%  
44 9% 29%  
45 8% 21% Last Result
46 6% 12%  
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 1.3%  
50 0.2% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.5%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 0.8% 99.3%  
23 2% 98.5%  
24 8% 96%  
25 13% 88%  
26 15% 76%  
27 31% 61% Median
28 11% 29%  
29 5% 18%  
30 5% 13%  
31 5% 8%  
32 1.2% 3%  
33 0.5% 2%  
34 1.1% 2%  
35 0.7% 0.7%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.8%  
19 2% 99.0%  
20 6% 97%  
21 8% 91%  
22 18% 82%  
23 14% 64%  
24 24% 50% Median
25 6% 27%  
26 12% 21%  
27 6% 9% Last Result
28 3% 4%  
29 0.9% 1.1%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 3% 98% Last Result
12 14% 95%  
13 27% 80%  
14 22% 53% Median
15 14% 31%  
16 9% 17%  
17 5% 8%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.6% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 39% 98%  
3 0% 59%  
4 0% 59%  
5 0% 59%  
6 0% 59%  
7 6% 59%  
8 32% 53% Median
9 14% 21%  
10 5% 7%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 21% 100% Last Result
2 26% 79%  
3 8% 53% Median
4 0.2% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 8% 45%  
8 24% 37%  
9 11% 13%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 44% 95%  
2 16% 51% Median
3 25% 36%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 3% 11%  
8 7% 8% Last Result
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 50% 78% Median
2 27% 28%  
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 101 100% 94–106 94–106 93–107 89–108
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 99.8% 90–101 90–102 89–105 87–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 99.9% 92–101 90–102 89–103 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 95 99.7% 91–101 89–102 88–103 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 94 99.5% 89–100 87–100 87–101 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 90 91% 85–94 83–95 83–96 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 43% 78–89 76–89 74–90 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 6% 73–83 72–85 71–86 68–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0.8% 71–80 69–81 69–83 66–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 74 0.3% 68–78 67–80 66–81 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 68 0% 63–75 63–75 62–76 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 66 0% 62–72 61–73 61–73 59–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 61–71 60–71 60–72 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 63 0% 58–66 58–67 57–68 55–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 45 0% 41–50 40–51 39–53 37–55
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 27–35 27–36 26–37 24–40

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.7% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.3%  
91 0.3% 99.1%  
92 1.1% 98.7%  
93 2% 98%  
94 6% 95%  
95 6% 89%  
96 6% 83%  
97 7% 77%  
98 6% 71%  
99 8% 65%  
100 6% 57%  
101 5% 50% Median
102 17% 45%  
103 3% 28%  
104 8% 25%  
105 5% 17%  
106 9% 12%  
107 1.3% 3%  
108 2% 2%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.2% 99.6%  
88 1.5% 99.4%  
89 2% 98%  
90 9% 96%  
91 3% 88%  
92 8% 84%  
93 10% 76%  
94 14% 66%  
95 4% 53%  
96 9% 49% Median
97 4% 40%  
98 5% 36%  
99 8% 32%  
100 3% 23%  
101 11% 20%  
102 4% 8%  
103 1.2% 5%  
104 1.1% 4%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.6% 0.8%  
107 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
89 3% 99.4%  
90 2% 96%  
91 2% 94%  
92 9% 92%  
93 10% 83%  
94 6% 73%  
95 9% 67% Median
96 6% 58%  
97 3% 51%  
98 5% 48%  
99 15% 43%  
100 7% 29%  
101 13% 22%  
102 4% 9%  
103 3% 5%  
104 0.5% 2%  
105 0.5% 1.0%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.7% Majority
86 1.1% 99.2%  
87 0.5% 98%  
88 2% 98%  
89 1.1% 96%  
90 1.4% 95%  
91 6% 93%  
92 7% 87%  
93 7% 80%  
94 17% 73%  
95 9% 57%  
96 9% 48%  
97 7% 39%  
98 12% 31% Median
99 5% 19%  
100 4% 15%  
101 3% 11%  
102 5% 8%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.8% 1.2%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.5% Majority
86 1.5% 99.2%  
87 3% 98%  
88 2% 94%  
89 4% 92%  
90 5% 88%  
91 8% 83%  
92 11% 74%  
93 9% 64% Median
94 7% 55%  
95 8% 48%  
96 5% 40%  
97 5% 35%  
98 11% 30%  
99 4% 19%  
100 13% 15%  
101 1.1% 3%  
102 0.6% 1.4%  
103 0.3% 0.8%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
80 0.6% 99.7%  
81 0.5% 99.1%  
82 0.6% 98.6%  
83 4% 98%  
84 3% 94%  
85 5% 91% Majority
86 5% 86%  
87 6% 81%  
88 9% 75%  
89 5% 66%  
90 18% 61% Median
91 8% 43%  
92 16% 35%  
93 6% 18%  
94 6% 12%  
95 2% 6%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.4%  
99 0.4% 0.8%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 99.5%  
74 3% 99.2%  
75 1.1% 96%  
76 2% 95%  
77 3% 93% Last Result
78 6% 90%  
79 10% 84%  
80 6% 74%  
81 11% 68% Median
82 8% 57%  
83 4% 49%  
84 2% 45%  
85 9% 43% Majority
86 12% 34%  
87 4% 22%  
88 7% 18%  
89 8% 11%  
90 1.1% 3%  
91 2% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.8%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.2%  
70 0.6% 98.9%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 5% 97%  
73 4% 92%  
74 3% 88%  
75 5% 84%  
76 12% 79% Last Result
77 9% 67%  
78 12% 58% Median
79 9% 46%  
80 13% 37%  
81 9% 24%  
82 3% 15%  
83 4% 12%  
84 2% 8%  
85 1.1% 6% Majority
86 3% 5%  
87 0.4% 2%  
88 0.2% 1.4%  
89 1.0% 1.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.2%  
68 0.6% 98.7% Last Result
69 4% 98%  
70 4% 94%  
71 2% 91%  
72 5% 89%  
73 11% 83%  
74 5% 73%  
75 10% 68%  
76 10% 57% Median
77 13% 47%  
78 12% 34%  
79 6% 22%  
80 8% 15%  
81 4% 8%  
82 0.8% 4%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.4% 1.3%  
85 0.7% 0.8% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.8% 99.5%  
66 2% 98.8%  
67 5% 97%  
68 3% 92%  
69 4% 89%  
70 5% 85%  
71 12% 81%  
72 7% 69% Median
73 9% 61%  
74 9% 52%  
75 17% 43%  
76 7% 27%  
77 7% 20%  
78 6% 13%  
79 1.4% 7%  
80 1.1% 5%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.5% 2%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 2% 99.6%  
62 1.3% 98%  
63 9% 97%  
64 5% 88%  
65 8% 83%  
66 3% 75%  
67 17% 72%  
68 5% 55%  
69 6% 50% Median
70 8% 43%  
71 6% 35%  
72 7% 29%  
73 6% 23%  
74 6% 17%  
75 6% 11%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.1% 2%  
78 0.3% 1.3%  
79 0.2% 0.9%  
80 0.7% 0.7%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 1.1% 99.0%  
61 5% 98%  
62 14% 93%  
63 5% 80%  
64 7% 74%  
65 5% 67%  
66 16% 61%  
67 7% 45% Median
68 9% 39%  
69 8% 30%  
70 2% 22%  
71 5% 20%  
72 9% 14%  
73 4% 6%  
74 1.4% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 99.4%  
59 1.3% 98.9%  
60 4% 98%  
61 14% 94%  
62 6% 80%  
63 6% 74%  
64 8% 68%  
65 11% 59%  
66 13% 49% Median
67 10% 36%  
68 4% 26%  
69 4% 22%  
70 3% 18%  
71 11% 15%  
72 3% 4% Last Result
73 0.7% 1.5%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.6% 99.6%  
56 1.5% 99.0%  
57 2% 98%  
58 7% 96%  
59 7% 89%  
60 9% 81% Last Result
61 9% 72%  
62 4% 63%  
63 11% 59% Median
64 12% 48%  
65 16% 36%  
66 10% 19%  
67 5% 9%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.4% 1.5%  
71 0.5% 1.1%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 1.1% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 98.8%  
39 0.9% 98%  
40 3% 97%  
41 9% 94%  
42 7% 85%  
43 14% 78%  
44 9% 65%  
45 7% 56% Median
46 8% 49%  
47 11% 40%  
48 12% 29%  
49 4% 17%  
50 5% 13%  
51 4% 8%  
52 1.3% 4%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.9% 1.1%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.3% 99.7%  
25 0.9% 99.3%  
26 3% 98%  
27 11% 96%  
28 16% 85%  
29 13% 69%  
30 17% 55% Median
31 10% 39%  
32 7% 29%  
33 6% 22%  
34 2% 16%  
35 5% 14% Last Result
36 5% 9%  
37 2% 4%  
38 0.5% 1.3%  
39 0.2% 0.9%  
40 0.3% 0.6%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations