Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 23–29 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.7% 23.7–27.8% 23.1–28.4% 22.6–29.0% 21.7–30.0%
Høyre 25.0% 25.0% 23.0–27.1% 22.4–27.7% 21.9–28.3% 21.0–29.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.3% 13.7–17.1% 13.2–17.6% 12.8–18.1% 12.1–19.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.1% 10.6–13.8% 10.2–14.2% 9.9–14.7% 9.2–15.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.1–8.6% 5.8–9.0% 5.5–9.3% 5.1–10.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.4% 2.3–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.4% 2.3–6.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.3% 1.5–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 42–51 41–52 40–54 40–56
Høyre 45 45 41–50 40–51 39–52 37–54
Senterpartiet 19 28 25–32 24–33 23–34 21–36
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 19–25 18–26 17–26 16–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 11–16 10–17 9–18
Rødt 1 2 2–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.6%  
41 3% 97%  
42 7% 94%  
43 4% 87%  
44 9% 83%  
45 13% 74%  
46 6% 60%  
47 17% 54% Median
48 12% 37%  
49 7% 26% Last Result
50 5% 18%  
51 5% 14%  
52 4% 9%  
53 1.3% 4%  
54 1.2% 3%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.6%  
38 0.6% 98.5%  
39 2% 98%  
40 2% 96%  
41 5% 94%  
42 8% 89%  
43 5% 81%  
44 23% 76%  
45 14% 53% Last Result, Median
46 8% 39%  
47 8% 31%  
48 6% 23%  
49 4% 17%  
50 5% 13%  
51 5% 8%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.5% 1.3%  
54 0.6% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.7%  
22 1.3% 99.2%  
23 2% 98%  
24 3% 96%  
25 11% 92%  
26 12% 81%  
27 11% 70%  
28 17% 59% Median
29 13% 42%  
30 12% 30%  
31 4% 17%  
32 4% 13%  
33 6% 9%  
34 1.5% 3%  
35 0.8% 1.3%  
36 0.4% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.7%  
17 3% 99.4%  
18 3% 97%  
19 8% 94%  
20 10% 86%  
21 11% 76%  
22 21% 65% Median
23 18% 44%  
24 13% 26%  
25 5% 12%  
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 2% Last Result
28 0.4% 0.7%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.8%  
10 3% 98.6%  
11 10% 95% Last Result
12 13% 85%  
13 24% 72% Median
14 26% 48%  
15 8% 22%  
16 10% 14%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.8% 1.1%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100% Last Result
2 57% 91% Median
3 0% 35%  
4 0% 35%  
5 0% 35%  
6 0% 35%  
7 7% 35%  
8 16% 27%  
9 9% 12%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 35% 99.9% Last Result
2 27% 65% Median
3 11% 38%  
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 0% 27%  
7 8% 27%  
8 7% 18%  
9 8% 11%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100%  
2 45% 93% Median
3 0.7% 48%  
4 0% 47%  
5 0% 47%  
6 0.1% 47%  
7 18% 47%  
8 23% 29% Last Result
9 4% 6%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 51% 79% Median
2 11% 28%  
3 13% 17%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 102 100% 96–108 94–108 92–109 89–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 95 99.8% 91–101 89–104 88–104 86–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 92 97% 87–98 86–100 84–102 82–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 93 98% 88–98 86–100 85–101 82–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 92 95% 86–97 85–98 83–99 81–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 84% 83–94 81–95 80–96 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 79 13% 74–85 73–87 71–88 69–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 77 3% 71–82 69–83 67–85 66–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 2% 71–82 69–83 68–84 66–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0.5% 70–80 68–81 67–83 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 74 0.2% 68–78 65–80 65–81 61–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 73 0.1% 66–77 64–79 63–79 60–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 62–72 61–73 59–75 56–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 55–65 54–66 53–67 51–70
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 52 0% 46–56 45–57 44–58 42–61
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 34 0% 29–40 28–41 27–43 25–45

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.4% 99.6%  
90 0.6% 99.3%  
91 0.3% 98.7%  
92 1.2% 98%  
93 1.1% 97%  
94 1.4% 96%  
95 3% 95%  
96 3% 92%  
97 8% 89%  
98 7% 81% Median
99 3% 74%  
100 10% 71%  
101 5% 61%  
102 20% 55%  
103 6% 35%  
104 7% 29%  
105 3% 22%  
106 2% 19%  
107 4% 17% Last Result
108 11% 14%  
109 1.4% 3%  
110 0.4% 1.4%  
111 0.5% 1.0%  
112 0.2% 0.5%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.5% 99.6%  
87 0.5% 99.1%  
88 2% 98.6%  
89 3% 97%  
90 4% 94%  
91 10% 90%  
92 5% 81% Median
93 6% 76%  
94 12% 70%  
95 12% 58%  
96 6% 46%  
97 6% 40%  
98 9% 34%  
99 9% 25%  
100 4% 16%  
101 4% 12%  
102 2% 9%  
103 2% 7%  
104 3% 5%  
105 1.2% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.3%  
107 0.2% 0.8%  
108 0.5% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 1.0% 99.6%  
83 0.4% 98.6%  
84 0.9% 98%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 3% 96%  
87 9% 93%  
88 5% 84%  
89 4% 79%  
90 14% 75% Median
91 6% 61%  
92 14% 55%  
93 8% 41%  
94 2% 33%  
95 4% 30%  
96 9% 27%  
97 5% 18%  
98 4% 13%  
99 2% 9%  
100 2% 7%  
101 2% 5%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.4% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 1.1% 99.5%  
84 0.8% 98%  
85 1.3% 98% Majority
86 1.4% 96%  
87 3% 95%  
88 4% 92% Last Result
89 3% 88%  
90 8% 84%  
91 15% 76% Median
92 8% 61%  
93 9% 54%  
94 14% 44%  
95 3% 30%  
96 7% 27%  
97 8% 20%  
98 5% 12%  
99 2% 7%  
100 2% 6%  
101 0.9% 3%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.7% 1.3%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.6%  
82 0.7% 99.2%  
83 2% 98.5%  
84 1.5% 97%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 4% 93%  
87 4% 90%  
88 5% 86%  
89 13% 81%  
90 7% 68% Median
91 7% 60%  
92 12% 53%  
93 14% 41%  
94 4% 27%  
95 6% 23%  
96 6% 18%  
97 5% 11%  
98 2% 6%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.4% 2%  
101 0.7% 2%  
102 0.6% 1.0%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 0.4% 99.5%  
79 0.8% 99.1% Last Result
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 2% 93%  
83 3% 91%  
84 3% 88%  
85 11% 84% Majority
86 6% 74%  
87 6% 68%  
88 17% 61% Median
89 5% 44%  
90 15% 39%  
91 7% 24%  
92 3% 17%  
93 2% 14%  
94 6% 11%  
95 2% 5%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.3% 1.4%  
98 0.4% 1.0%  
99 0.1% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.5%  
71 2% 99.0%  
72 1.2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 5% 94%  
75 5% 89%  
76 7% 84%  
77 8% 77% Last Result
78 14% 69% Median
79 6% 56%  
80 14% 50%  
81 6% 36%  
82 6% 30%  
83 8% 25%  
84 4% 17%  
85 4% 13% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 3% 6%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.4%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.4%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 2% 93%  
71 4% 91%  
72 5% 87% Median
73 9% 82%  
74 4% 73%  
75 2% 70%  
76 8% 67%  
77 14% 59%  
78 6% 45%  
79 14% 39%  
80 4% 25%  
81 5% 21%  
82 9% 16%  
83 3% 7%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.9% 3% Majority
86 0.4% 2%  
87 1.0% 1.4%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 0.8% 99.3%  
68 1.2% 98.5%  
69 2% 97%  
70 2% 95%  
71 5% 93%  
72 4% 88%  
73 10% 83%  
74 6% 74%  
75 8% 67%  
76 11% 59% Last Result, Median
77 16% 48%  
78 9% 32%  
79 4% 23%  
80 4% 19%  
81 4% 15%  
82 5% 10%  
83 3% 6%  
84 0.9% 3%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.9%  
87 0.1% 0.5%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 0.9% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 97% Last Result
69 4% 94%  
70 3% 90%  
71 7% 87%  
72 10% 80%  
73 8% 70%  
74 6% 62%  
75 16% 57% Median
76 12% 41%  
77 8% 29%  
78 4% 21%  
79 5% 17%  
80 4% 12%  
81 3% 8%  
82 1.4% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.1%  
85 0.1% 0.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.5% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.4%  
63 0.5% 99.2%  
64 1.2% 98.7%  
65 3% 98%  
66 2% 95%  
67 2% 93%  
68 4% 91%  
69 4% 88%  
70 9% 84% Median
71 9% 75%  
72 6% 66%  
73 6% 60%  
74 12% 54%  
75 12% 42%  
76 6% 30%  
77 5% 24%  
78 10% 19%  
79 4% 10%  
80 3% 6%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.5% 1.4%  
83 0.5% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.3%  
62 0.6% 98.7%  
63 1.4% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 2% 94%  
66 2% 92%  
67 4% 90%  
68 4% 86%  
69 8% 82% Median
70 12% 75%  
71 8% 63%  
72 5% 55%  
73 12% 51%  
74 9% 39%  
75 7% 30%  
76 12% 23%  
77 3% 11%  
78 2% 7%  
79 3% 5%  
80 1.1% 2% Last Result
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.7%  
57 0.5% 99.2%  
58 0.8% 98.7%  
59 2% 98%  
60 1.0% 96%  
61 2% 95%  
62 6% 93%  
63 4% 87%  
64 3% 83%  
65 5% 79%  
66 12% 74%  
67 10% 62% Median
68 19% 52%  
69 6% 33%  
70 6% 28%  
71 8% 22%  
72 6% 14% Last Result
73 3% 8%  
74 2% 4%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.3% 1.0%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.5%  
52 0.7% 98.8%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 5% 94%  
56 9% 89%  
57 4% 80%  
58 16% 76%  
59 6% 60%  
60 6% 54% Last Result, Median
61 8% 48%  
62 11% 39%  
63 11% 28%  
64 5% 17%  
65 7% 12%  
66 2% 5%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.4% 2%  
69 0.6% 1.2%  
70 0.2% 0.6%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.7%  
43 1.1% 99.1%  
44 3% 98%  
45 4% 95%  
46 4% 91%  
47 5% 87%  
48 7% 82% Median
49 5% 76%  
50 8% 70%  
51 8% 63%  
52 16% 55%  
53 11% 39%  
54 12% 29%  
55 5% 17%  
56 4% 11%  
57 3% 8%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.0% 2%  
60 0.6% 1.1%  
61 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.7% 99.8%  
26 1.2% 99.2%  
27 2% 98%  
28 5% 96%  
29 9% 91%  
30 5% 82%  
31 6% 77% Median
32 8% 71%  
33 9% 64%  
34 9% 55%  
35 4% 46% Last Result
36 14% 42%  
37 7% 28%  
38 4% 21%  
39 2% 17%  
40 9% 15%  
41 2% 6%  
42 1.1% 4%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations