Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 25–31 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.8% 22.8–26.9% 22.3–27.5% 21.8–28.1% 20.9–29.1%
Høyre 25.0% 24.7% 22.7–26.8% 22.1–27.4% 21.7–27.9% 20.7–29.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.9% 13.3–16.7% 12.8–17.2% 12.5–17.7% 11.8–18.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.3% 10.8–13.9% 10.4–14.4% 10.1–14.9% 9.4–15.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8% 5.4–9.1% 4.9–9.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.2–6.3% 2.9–6.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.6–6.4%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.5% 2.3–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.2–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 41–48 40–50 40–52 37–55
Høyre 45 43 40–47 39–48 38–50 36–53
Senterpartiet 19 27 24–31 23–32 22–33 20–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 19–26 18–26 17–27 16–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 11–15 10–16 9–17 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 2–11 1–11 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 2–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Rødt 1 7 2–8 1–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.3% 99.5%  
39 2% 99.2%  
40 3% 98%  
41 17% 94%  
42 9% 78%  
43 19% 69% Median
44 6% 50%  
45 8% 43%  
46 13% 35%  
47 11% 22%  
48 3% 12%  
49 1.4% 8% Last Result
50 2% 7%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.2% 3%  
53 0.4% 2%  
54 0.4% 1.4%  
55 0.9% 1.0%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.7%  
37 1.1% 99.4%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 10% 94%  
41 8% 84%  
42 8% 77%  
43 19% 68% Median
44 16% 50%  
45 13% 34% Last Result
46 7% 20%  
47 6% 13%  
48 3% 7%  
49 1.5% 4%  
50 0.5% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.3%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100% Last Result
20 0.3% 99.8%  
21 1.4% 99.5%  
22 2% 98%  
23 5% 96%  
24 7% 91%  
25 8% 84%  
26 11% 76%  
27 16% 65% Median
28 14% 49%  
29 10% 35%  
30 13% 25%  
31 4% 12%  
32 4% 8%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.5% 1.1%  
35 0.4% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.8%  
17 3% 99.4%  
18 4% 97%  
19 20% 92%  
20 8% 72%  
21 9% 64%  
22 10% 55% Median
23 17% 44%  
24 12% 27%  
25 3% 15%  
26 8% 11%  
27 2% 3% Last Result
28 0.6% 1.0%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.5% 100%  
9 2% 99.5%  
10 7% 97%  
11 16% 90% Last Result
12 31% 75% Median
13 21% 43%  
14 9% 22%  
15 7% 13%  
16 3% 6%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.5% 0.6%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100% Last Result
2 14% 95%  
3 4% 81%  
4 0% 77%  
5 0% 77%  
6 0% 77%  
7 14% 77%  
8 34% 64% Median
9 16% 29%  
10 8% 13%  
11 3% 5%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 6% 95%  
3 22% 90%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0% 68%  
7 14% 68%  
8 33% 54% Last Result, Median
9 15% 21%  
10 5% 6%  
11 1.2% 1.4%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 43% 93%  
3 0% 50%  
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 0% 50%  
7 19% 50% Median
8 22% 31%  
9 5% 8%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 67% 93% Median
2 25% 26%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0.4% 0.6%  
8 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 94–106 93–107 92–108 90–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 99.9% 93–102 90–103 89–104 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 96 99.7% 91–102 90–102 88–104 86–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 95% 85–96 85–98 84–99 80–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 85% 84–95 82–96 81–98 79–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 58% 80–90 78–91 77–93 74–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 38% 80–90 78–91 77–92 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 79 15% 74–85 73–87 71–88 69–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 5% 72–82 71–84 69–86 67–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 73 0.3% 67–78 67–79 65–81 62–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 68–77 66–79 64–80 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 67 0% 61–72 60–73 60–74 58–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 66 0% 59–70 59–72 58–73 56–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 53–62 52–64 51–65 49–68
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 52 0% 46–55 45–57 44–58 42–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 35 0% 30–39 29–41 27–42 25–44

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.4% 99.5%  
91 1.2% 99.1%  
92 1.4% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 6% 94%  
95 5% 88%  
96 6% 83%  
97 5% 78%  
98 5% 72%  
99 3% 67%  
100 8% 64%  
101 17% 56% Median
102 6% 39%  
103 6% 33%  
104 13% 27%  
105 4% 14%  
106 3% 10%  
107 4% 8% Last Result
108 0.9% 3%  
109 0.4% 2%  
110 0.5% 2%  
111 1.2% 1.5%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.8% 99.6%  
88 0.3% 98.8% Last Result
89 2% 98%  
90 2% 96%  
91 1.4% 95%  
92 2% 93%  
93 4% 92%  
94 8% 87%  
95 9% 79%  
96 6% 70%  
97 7% 64%  
98 5% 57% Median
99 23% 52%  
100 7% 29%  
101 11% 22%  
102 3% 11%  
103 4% 7%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.2%  
107 0.4% 0.8%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.7% Majority
86 0.6% 99.6%  
87 1.0% 99.0%  
88 1.3% 98%  
89 1.1% 97%  
90 3% 96%  
91 7% 93%  
92 3% 85%  
93 17% 82%  
94 8% 66%  
95 4% 58%  
96 5% 53%  
97 6% 49% Median
98 16% 43%  
99 5% 27%  
100 6% 22%  
101 3% 16%  
102 8% 12%  
103 1.0% 4%  
104 1.1% 3%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.4%  
107 0.7% 1.0%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.3% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.2%  
83 0.7% 98.7%  
84 3% 98%  
85 5% 95% Majority
86 4% 90%  
87 3% 86%  
88 5% 82%  
89 7% 77%  
90 3% 70% Median
91 23% 66%  
92 12% 43%  
93 5% 32%  
94 8% 27%  
95 4% 18%  
96 5% 14%  
97 3% 9%  
98 3% 7%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.6% 2%  
101 0.7% 1.2%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.6% 99.6%  
80 0.8% 99.0% Last Result
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 3% 95%  
84 7% 92%  
85 13% 85% Majority
86 5% 73%  
87 3% 68%  
88 7% 65%  
89 7% 58% Median
90 14% 50%  
91 10% 36%  
92 5% 26%  
93 6% 22%  
94 2% 16%  
95 9% 14%  
96 1.2% 5%  
97 1.5% 4%  
98 0.9% 3%  
99 0.8% 2%  
100 0.5% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.7%  
75 0.3% 99.3%  
76 1.2% 98.9%  
77 1.4% 98% Last Result
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94%  
80 3% 91%  
81 10% 88%  
82 5% 77%  
83 5% 73%  
84 9% 67%  
85 6% 58% Majority
86 6% 52% Median
87 19% 47%  
88 12% 27%  
89 5% 15%  
90 2% 10%  
91 4% 8%  
92 1.2% 4%  
93 0.7% 3%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.8%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.3% 99.4%  
76 0.9% 99.1%  
77 1.4% 98%  
78 3% 97%  
79 3% 94% Last Result
80 4% 91%  
81 6% 87%  
82 7% 81% Median
83 28% 74%  
84 8% 46%  
85 4% 38% Majority
86 6% 34%  
87 11% 28%  
88 3% 17%  
89 4% 14%  
90 3% 10%  
91 4% 7%  
92 0.6% 3%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.7% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.7%  
70 0.8% 99.2%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 1.5% 97%  
73 1.2% 96%  
74 9% 95%  
75 2% 86%  
76 6% 84%  
77 5% 78%  
78 10% 74%  
79 14% 64%  
80 7% 50%  
81 7% 42%  
82 3% 35% Median
83 5% 32%  
84 13% 27%  
85 7% 15% Majority
86 3% 8%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.8% 2% Last Result
90 0.6% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 0.9% 99.4%  
69 1.1% 98%  
70 0.7% 97%  
71 3% 97%  
72 5% 94%  
73 4% 89%  
74 5% 85%  
75 3% 80%  
76 7% 77% Last Result
77 6% 70%  
78 6% 64% Median
79 24% 58%  
80 7% 34%  
81 14% 27%  
82 3% 13%  
83 3% 10%  
84 2% 7%  
85 1.2% 5% Majority
86 1.4% 3%  
87 1.5% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.7%  
63 0.5% 99.0%  
64 0.7% 98.6%  
65 1.1% 98%  
66 1.0% 97%  
67 8% 96%  
68 3% 88%  
69 6% 84%  
70 5% 78%  
71 16% 73%  
72 6% 57%  
73 5% 51%  
74 4% 47% Median
75 8% 42%  
76 17% 34%  
77 3% 18%  
78 7% 15%  
79 3% 7%  
80 1.1% 4%  
81 1.3% 3%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.0%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.3%  
64 2% 98.9%  
65 1.4% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 3% 94%  
68 5% 92% Last Result
69 10% 87%  
70 10% 77% Median
71 25% 67%  
72 7% 42%  
73 8% 35%  
74 11% 27%  
75 3% 16%  
76 3% 13%  
77 2% 10%  
78 1.1% 8%  
79 2% 7%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.3% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 0.6% 99.5%  
59 1.2% 98.9%  
60 7% 98%  
61 2% 90%  
62 3% 89%  
63 12% 86%  
64 6% 74%  
65 5% 68%  
66 7% 63% Median
67 12% 56%  
68 14% 44%  
69 9% 30%  
70 7% 21%  
71 4% 14%  
72 5% 10%  
73 2% 6%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.8% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.7%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 0.6% 99.3%  
58 2% 98.8%  
59 7% 97%  
60 2% 90%  
61 2% 87%  
62 12% 85%  
63 6% 73%  
64 6% 67%  
65 9% 61% Median
66 9% 52%  
67 14% 43%  
68 10% 29%  
69 7% 19%  
70 4% 12%  
71 3% 8%  
72 2% 5% Last Result
73 1.2% 3%  
74 0.8% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.9%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 1.1% 99.4%  
51 2% 98%  
52 4% 96%  
53 14% 92%  
54 6% 78%  
55 17% 72% Median
56 9% 55%  
57 7% 46%  
58 8% 39%  
59 9% 32%  
60 9% 23% Last Result
61 4% 14%  
62 3% 11%  
63 2% 8%  
64 3% 6%  
65 0.9% 3%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 0.3% 1.3%  
68 0.8% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.7%  
43 1.0% 98.6%  
44 1.5% 98%  
45 5% 96%  
46 3% 91%  
47 4% 88%  
48 10% 84%  
49 5% 75%  
50 7% 69%  
51 8% 62%  
52 15% 54% Median
53 16% 39%  
54 8% 23%  
55 6% 15%  
56 4% 9%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.2% 3%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.5% 1.1%  
61 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 0.4% 99.5%  
27 2% 99.0%  
28 2% 97%  
29 5% 95%  
30 6% 90%  
31 7% 85%  
32 6% 77%  
33 5% 71%  
34 7% 65%  
35 9% 59% Last Result
36 6% 50% Median
37 15% 44%  
38 4% 28%  
39 15% 24%  
40 3% 10%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.3% 0.8%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations