Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 31 March–1 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.9% 24.2–27.7% 23.7–28.3% 23.3–28.7% 22.5–29.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.3% 21.6–25.1% 21.2–25.6% 20.8–26.0% 20.0–26.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Rødt 2.4% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 43–49 42–51 41–52 39–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 40–45 38–46 38–47 36–48
Senterpartiet 19 26 24–30 23–30 22–31 21–33
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 18–22 17–22 16–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 14–19 14–19 13–20 12–21
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–11 7–11 2–12 1–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 2–9 2–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–7 1–7 1–8 1–8
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.7%  
40 1.4% 99.2%  
41 3% 98%  
42 5% 95%  
43 9% 90%  
44 10% 81%  
45 16% 71% Last Result
46 15% 55% Median
47 6% 40%  
48 5% 34%  
49 19% 28%  
50 4% 9%  
51 3% 5%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.8% 1.2%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 0.9% 99.6%  
37 1.2% 98.7%  
38 3% 98%  
39 3% 95%  
40 21% 92%  
41 21% 71%  
42 8% 50% Median
43 18% 43%  
44 8% 24%  
45 9% 16%  
46 5% 8%  
47 1.3% 3%  
48 1.0% 1.4%  
49 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.5% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.5%  
22 2% 99.0%  
23 4% 97%  
24 11% 93%  
25 17% 82%  
26 25% 65% Median
27 11% 40%  
28 8% 29%  
29 6% 21%  
30 10% 14%  
31 3% 4%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.7%  
16 2% 99.2%  
17 5% 97%  
18 10% 92%  
19 25% 83%  
20 20% 57% Median
21 21% 37%  
22 11% 16%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 1.0% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100% Last Result
12 0.8% 99.8%  
13 3% 99.0%  
14 8% 96%  
15 18% 88%  
16 31% 71% Median
17 13% 39%  
18 16% 26%  
19 6% 10%  
20 3% 4%  
21 1.1% 1.3%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100% Last Result
2 3% 99.5%  
3 0.1% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 11% 96%  
8 29% 85%  
9 25% 56% Median
10 20% 30%  
11 8% 10%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 10% 97%  
3 35% 87%  
4 0% 52%  
5 0% 52%  
6 0% 52%  
7 20% 52% Median
8 22% 32% Last Result
9 7% 11%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 10% 99.9%  
2 71% 90% Median
3 0.3% 19%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 14% 19%  
8 4% 5% Last Result
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 78% 99.8% Last Result, Median
2 21% 22%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0% 0.4%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 96–105 95–106 95–107 93–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 100% 95–103 94–104 93–105 91–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 94 99.9% 91–99 90–100 88–101 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 93 99.0% 90–98 88–99 87–100 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 70% 82–90 81–91 80–91 78–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 63% 80–89 79–89 78–90 77–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 83 30% 79–87 78–88 78–89 75–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 29% 79–87 77–88 76–89 74–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 75 0.1% 70–78 69–79 68–81 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.1% 70–78 68–80 67–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 64–72 64–73 63–75 61–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 69 0% 65–73 64–74 63–75 61–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 66 0% 62–70 61–71 59–72 58–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–62 54–63 53–63 51–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 54 0% 50–59 49–60 48–61 46–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 35 0% 30–40 29–41 28–44 27–45

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.4% 99.8%  
94 0.7% 99.4%  
95 7% 98.6%  
96 2% 91%  
97 4% 89%  
98 4% 85%  
99 10% 80%  
100 14% 71%  
101 22% 57% Median
102 12% 36%  
103 5% 24%  
104 7% 19%  
105 3% 12%  
106 5% 9%  
107 2% 4% Last Result
108 2% 2%  
109 0.2% 0.7%  
110 0.4% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9% Last Result
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.6%  
92 1.2% 99.2%  
93 2% 98%  
94 4% 96%  
95 4% 92%  
96 16% 88%  
97 11% 73%  
98 8% 62%  
99 11% 54%  
100 13% 44% Median
101 9% 31%  
102 10% 22%  
103 5% 11%  
104 2% 6%  
105 2% 4%  
106 0.9% 2%  
107 0.7% 1.0%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.8% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.1%  
87 1.0% 98.8%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 3% 95%  
91 10% 92%  
92 7% 82%  
93 8% 75%  
94 21% 67% Median
95 9% 46%  
96 9% 37%  
97 5% 28%  
98 8% 23%  
99 8% 16%  
100 2% 7%  
101 4% 5%  
102 0.8% 1.4%  
103 0.1% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.4%  
105 0.3% 0.3%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.9% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.0% Majority
86 0.9% 98.5%  
87 1.1% 98%  
88 2% 96%  
89 4% 94%  
90 11% 91%  
91 6% 80%  
92 9% 74%  
93 22% 65% Median
94 9% 43%  
95 6% 34%  
96 8% 27%  
97 5% 19%  
98 7% 14%  
99 3% 7%  
100 3% 4%  
101 0.7% 1.2%  
102 0.1% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.3% 0.3%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.7% 99.7%  
79 1.0% 99.0%  
80 2% 98% Last Result
81 5% 96%  
82 2% 90%  
83 9% 88%  
84 10% 79%  
85 6% 70% Median, Majority
86 21% 63%  
87 11% 42%  
88 7% 31%  
89 11% 24%  
90 7% 13%  
91 4% 6%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.7% 99.6%  
78 2% 98.9%  
79 2% 97% Last Result
80 5% 95%  
81 4% 90%  
82 8% 86%  
83 10% 78%  
84 5% 68% Median
85 25% 63% Majority
86 8% 37%  
87 10% 29%  
88 8% 19%  
89 6% 11%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.2%  
93 0.4% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 0.6% 99.1%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 4% 98%  
79 7% 94%  
80 11% 87%  
81 7% 76%  
82 11% 69%  
83 21% 58%  
84 6% 37% Median
85 10% 30% Majority
86 9% 21%  
87 2% 12%  
88 5% 10%  
89 2% 4% Last Result
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.7% 1.0%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.9% 99.7%  
75 0.6% 98.8%  
76 3% 98%  
77 2% 95% Last Result
78 2% 93%  
79 6% 91%  
80 15% 85%  
81 11% 70%  
82 11% 59%  
83 9% 48%  
84 10% 39% Median
85 12% 29% Majority
86 4% 16%  
87 5% 12%  
88 4% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.4% 2%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.3% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.7%  
66 0.1% 99.6%  
67 0.8% 99.4%  
68 4% 98.6%  
69 2% 95%  
70 8% 93%  
71 8% 84%  
72 5% 77%  
73 9% 72%  
74 9% 63%  
75 21% 54% Median
76 8% 33%  
77 7% 25%  
78 10% 18%  
79 3% 8%  
80 2% 5%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.3% 1.2%  
84 0.8% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 2% 97%  
69 4% 95%  
70 4% 91%  
71 6% 86%  
72 20% 80%  
73 9% 60%  
74 12% 52%  
75 10% 40% Median
76 9% 30% Last Result
77 7% 21%  
78 5% 14%  
79 3% 9%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 1.3% 99.2%  
63 1.0% 98%  
64 7% 97%  
65 7% 90%  
66 7% 83%  
67 14% 76%  
68 7% 62% Last Result, Median
69 24% 55%  
70 9% 31%  
71 8% 23%  
72 7% 15%  
73 3% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.3% 1.1%  
77 0.6% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.6%  
62 1.2% 98.8%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 95%  
65 4% 91%  
66 12% 87%  
67 9% 75%  
68 13% 66% Median
69 11% 54%  
70 7% 43%  
71 10% 36%  
72 15% 25%  
73 3% 10%  
74 4% 7%  
75 2% 3%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 99.6%  
59 2% 99.1%  
60 2% 97%  
61 4% 96%  
62 8% 92%  
63 4% 84%  
64 14% 80%  
65 12% 66%  
66 12% 54% Median
67 7% 41%  
68 8% 35%  
69 6% 27%  
70 14% 20%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 4% Last Result
73 0.7% 1.2%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.8%  
52 0.7% 98.7%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 10% 93%  
56 9% 84%  
57 13% 75%  
58 9% 62% Median
59 22% 53%  
60 10% 31% Last Result
61 8% 20%  
62 5% 13%  
63 6% 8%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.3%  
48 2% 98%  
49 4% 96%  
50 3% 93%  
51 7% 89%  
52 9% 82%  
53 8% 74%  
54 22% 65%  
55 10% 43% Median
56 8% 33%  
57 8% 25%  
58 6% 17%  
59 6% 11%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.1% 3% Last Result
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.3%  
64 0.8% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.7%  
28 3% 99.4%  
29 3% 96%  
30 7% 93%  
31 17% 86%  
32 4% 69%  
33 5% 66%  
34 10% 61%  
35 11% 51% Last Result, Median
36 6% 40%  
37 8% 34%  
38 5% 26%  
39 6% 21%  
40 8% 15%  
41 2% 7%  
42 0.9% 5%  
43 0.7% 4%  
44 3% 3%  
45 0.2% 0.7%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations