Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 26 March–1 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.7% 25.0–28.6% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.5% 23.2–30.4%
Høyre 25.0% 25.2% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–28.0% 21.8–28.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.8–14.2% 10.5–14.6% 9.9–15.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Venstre 4.4% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 45–54 44–55 43–55 42–57
Høyre 45 46 42–49 41–50 40–51 39–53
Senterpartiet 19 25 22–28 21–29 21–29 20–31
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 20–26 19–26 19–27 18–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 11–16 10–17 10–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–9 1–10 1–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 0–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.6%  
43 3% 98.6%  
44 3% 96%  
45 14% 92%  
46 8% 78%  
47 14% 70%  
48 14% 56% Median
49 11% 42% Last Result
50 6% 31%  
51 6% 25%  
52 6% 19%  
53 3% 13%  
54 3% 10%  
55 5% 7%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 0.8% 1.0%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.9% 99.5%  
40 2% 98.6%  
41 4% 96%  
42 5% 92%  
43 11% 86%  
44 13% 75%  
45 8% 62% Last Result
46 14% 53% Median
47 18% 39%  
48 8% 21%  
49 5% 13%  
50 4% 8%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.7% 1.5%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
20 2% 99.5%  
21 3% 98%  
22 11% 94%  
23 13% 83%  
24 19% 71%  
25 17% 52% Median
26 16% 35%  
27 7% 19%  
28 7% 12%  
29 4% 5%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.6%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.6%  
19 3% 98%  
20 10% 95%  
21 11% 85%  
22 16% 74%  
23 22% 58% Median
24 16% 36%  
25 7% 20%  
26 10% 13%  
27 1.3% 3% Last Result
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.7%  
11 8% 97% Last Result
12 14% 89%  
13 18% 75%  
14 23% 57% Median
15 23% 34%  
16 9% 11%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.7% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 17% 93%  
3 4% 76%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0% 72%  
7 9% 72%  
8 36% 63% Median
9 20% 28%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.2% 1.4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100% Last Result
2 62% 85% Median
3 0% 23%  
4 0% 23%  
5 0% 23%  
6 0% 23%  
7 8% 23%  
8 12% 15%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 38% 96%  
2 18% 58% Median
3 30% 40%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 4% 11%  
8 6% 7% Last Result
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 38% 97%  
2 57% 60% Median
3 0.2% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 1.0% 2%  
8 1.1% 1.2% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 97 99.9% 92–102 91–103 90–105 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 97 99.9% 92–101 91–102 89–103 87–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 95 99.8% 91–100 90–101 88–102 86–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 93 98% 89–98 87–99 85–100 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 92% 85–95 84–96 83–98 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 74% 82–92 81–93 80–95 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 26% 78–87 76–88 75–90 72–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 79 8% 74–84 73–85 71–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 2% 71–81 70–82 69–84 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0.2% 69–79 68–79 67–81 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 72 0.1% 68–77 67–78 66–80 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 66–75 65–76 64–76 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 64–73 63–74 62–75 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 62 0% 58–67 57–68 56–69 54–71
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 46–54 45–56 44–57 42–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 29 0% 25–32 25–34 24–35 22–38

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.7%  
88 0.2% 99.6%  
89 1.1% 99.4%  
90 2% 98%  
91 2% 96%  
92 6% 94%  
93 6% 89%  
94 5% 83%  
95 9% 78%  
96 14% 69%  
97 9% 55%  
98 8% 46% Median
99 14% 38%  
100 5% 24%  
101 8% 19%  
102 3% 11%  
103 3% 7%  
104 2% 5%  
105 0.8% 3%  
106 2% 2%  
107 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.5%  
88 1.2% 99.2%  
89 1.0% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 2% 95%  
92 7% 93%  
93 7% 86%  
94 5% 79%  
95 13% 74%  
96 10% 61%  
97 10% 51% Median
98 5% 41%  
99 16% 36%  
100 7% 20%  
101 7% 13%  
102 3% 6%  
103 0.9% 3%  
104 1.4% 2%  
105 0.5% 0.9%  
106 0.1% 0.4%  
107 0.3% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.8% Majority
86 0.2% 99.6%  
87 2% 99.4%  
88 1.1% 98% Last Result
89 0.9% 97%  
90 2% 96%  
91 6% 94%  
92 7% 88%  
93 4% 81%  
94 6% 77%  
95 21% 71%  
96 7% 49%  
97 10% 42% Median
98 9% 32%  
99 6% 24%  
100 9% 18%  
101 5% 9%  
102 3% 4%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.0%  
105 0.4% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.6%  
84 1.1% 99.3%  
85 1.2% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 2% 95%  
88 3% 94%  
89 4% 91%  
90 9% 86%  
91 9% 78%  
92 7% 69%  
93 12% 61%  
94 11% 49%  
95 10% 38% Median
96 4% 29%  
97 9% 24%  
98 8% 15%  
99 4% 7%  
100 1.3% 3%  
101 0.9% 1.4%  
102 0.4% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.6%  
82 0.9% 99.2%  
83 1.0% 98%  
84 5% 97%  
85 6% 92% Majority
86 4% 87%  
87 10% 83%  
88 10% 73%  
89 8% 63% Median
90 12% 55%  
91 11% 44%  
92 8% 33%  
93 6% 25%  
94 9% 20%  
95 3% 10%  
96 2% 7%  
97 1.4% 5%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.7%  
78 0.5% 99.2%  
79 0.7% 98.7% Last Result
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 7% 93%  
83 6% 86%  
84 6% 80%  
85 14% 74% Majority
86 9% 60%  
87 11% 51% Median
88 10% 41%  
89 5% 31%  
90 9% 26%  
91 5% 17%  
92 6% 12%  
93 2% 6%  
94 0.9% 4%  
95 1.0% 3%  
96 2% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.9% 99.8%  
73 0.8% 98.9%  
74 0.4% 98%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 95% Last Result
78 7% 92%  
79 6% 85%  
80 14% 79%  
81 14% 65%  
82 7% 51%  
83 8% 44% Median
84 10% 36%  
85 6% 26% Majority
86 4% 19%  
87 10% 16%  
88 2% 6%  
89 0.9% 3%  
90 1.1% 3%  
91 0.8% 1.4%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 1.1% 99.5%  
71 2% 98%  
72 1.4% 96%  
73 2% 95%  
74 3% 93%  
75 9% 90%  
76 6% 80%  
77 8% 75%  
78 11% 67%  
79 12% 56%  
80 8% 45%  
81 10% 37% Median
82 10% 27%  
83 4% 17%  
84 6% 13%  
85 5% 8% Majority
86 1.0% 3%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.4%  
69 2% 98.9%  
70 3% 96%  
71 8% 93%  
72 11% 85%  
73 10% 74%  
74 7% 64%  
75 10% 57% Median
76 10% 47% Last Result
77 5% 37%  
78 5% 32%  
79 10% 26%  
80 5% 16%  
81 3% 12%  
82 3% 8%  
83 2% 5%  
84 0.9% 3%  
85 2% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.3%  
66 0.7% 98.9%  
67 3% 98%  
68 4% 95% Last Result
69 6% 91%  
70 12% 86%  
71 13% 74%  
72 8% 61%  
73 9% 53% Median
74 13% 44%  
75 5% 32%  
76 8% 26%  
77 7% 18%  
78 2% 12%  
79 5% 10%  
80 1.3% 5%  
81 1.3% 4%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.7%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.6%  
65 1.4% 99.1%  
66 0.9% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 7% 94%  
69 7% 87%  
70 16% 80%  
71 5% 64%  
72 10% 59%  
73 10% 49% Median
74 13% 39%  
75 5% 26%  
76 7% 21%  
77 7% 14%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 0.6% 99.3%  
63 0.7% 98.8%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 7% 92%  
67 13% 86%  
68 7% 73%  
69 12% 66%  
70 8% 54%  
71 8% 46% Median
72 18% 38%  
73 5% 19%  
74 4% 14%  
75 4% 10%  
76 4% 6%  
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.4% 1.1%  
79 0.3% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.5%  
61 0.5% 98.7%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 96%  
64 3% 93%  
65 10% 90%  
66 12% 79%  
67 10% 68%  
68 11% 57%  
69 5% 47% Median
70 17% 42%  
71 11% 25%  
72 3% 14% Last Result
73 4% 11%  
74 3% 7%  
75 3% 4%  
76 0.5% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.6%  
55 0.7% 99.0%  
56 2% 98%  
57 4% 96%  
58 7% 92%  
59 7% 85%  
60 14% 78% Last Result
61 11% 64%  
62 10% 53% Median
63 10% 43%  
64 11% 33%  
65 5% 22%  
66 6% 18%  
67 2% 12%  
68 5% 9%  
69 3% 4%  
70 0.4% 1.1%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 1.0% 99.8%  
43 1.1% 98.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 5% 96%  
46 7% 91%  
47 11% 84%  
48 13% 73%  
49 13% 60%  
50 6% 47% Median
51 16% 40%  
52 5% 24%  
53 7% 20%  
54 4% 13%  
55 4% 9%  
56 2% 5%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.5% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.3%  
24 2% 98.7%  
25 9% 97%  
26 9% 88%  
27 13% 79%  
28 12% 66%  
29 19% 54% Median
30 8% 35%  
31 10% 27%  
32 7% 17%  
33 2% 10%  
34 2% 7%  
35 3% 5% Last Result
36 0.8% 2%  
37 0.4% 1.0%  
38 0.4% 0.6%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations