Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 20–22 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.3% 23.3–27.4% 22.7–28.0% 22.2–28.6% 21.3–29.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.4% 22.5–26.6% 21.9–27.2% 21.4–27.7% 20.5–28.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.2% 12.7–16.0% 12.2–16.5% 11.9–17.0% 11.2–17.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.7% 8.4–11.2% 8.0–11.7% 7.7–12.0% 7.1–12.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.6% 7.4–10.0% 7.0–10.5% 6.7–10.8% 6.2–11.6%
Rødt 2.4% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.6–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.3% 3.1–5.6% 2.9–5.9% 2.6–6.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 40–49 40–50 39–52 37–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–48 40–49 39–51 37–54
Senterpartiet 19 26 22–30 21–31 20–31 19–34
Fremskrittspartiet 27 17 14–20 14–21 13–21 12–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 12–17 12–18 11–20 11–21
Rødt 1 8 2–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–9 1–10 1–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 2–9 1–10 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 1–7 1–7 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.5%  
38 1.3% 98.8%  
39 2% 98%  
40 6% 96%  
41 5% 90%  
42 10% 85%  
43 8% 76%  
44 8% 67%  
45 12% 59% Last Result, Median
46 14% 47%  
47 9% 33%  
48 7% 25%  
49 10% 17%  
50 3% 7%  
51 1.3% 4%  
52 0.9% 3%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 0.6% 99.3%  
39 2% 98.7%  
40 8% 97%  
41 11% 89%  
42 12% 78%  
43 16% 67%  
44 10% 51% Median
45 13% 41%  
46 9% 27%  
47 6% 18%  
48 6% 12%  
49 2% 6% Last Result
50 1.4% 4%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 0.4% 2%  
53 0.4% 1.4%  
54 0.8% 1.1%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
20 2% 98.9%  
21 5% 97%  
22 9% 92%  
23 14% 83%  
24 7% 69%  
25 11% 63%  
26 15% 52% Median
27 11% 37%  
28 10% 26%  
29 4% 15%  
30 5% 12%  
31 4% 6%  
32 0.9% 2%  
33 0.6% 2%  
34 0.6% 1.0%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.8%  
12 1.0% 99.6%  
13 3% 98.7%  
14 6% 96%  
15 10% 90%  
16 25% 80%  
17 13% 54% Median
18 15% 41%  
19 8% 26%  
20 12% 18%  
21 4% 6%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7% Last Result
12 10% 97%  
13 7% 86%  
14 6% 80%  
15 25% 74% Median
16 24% 49%  
17 18% 25%  
18 2% 7%  
19 2% 5%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 10% 99.9%  
3 0% 89%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 0% 89%  
7 9% 89%  
8 32% 81% Median
9 24% 49%  
10 14% 25%  
11 7% 11%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.4% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 10% 100% Last Result
2 30% 90%  
3 2% 60%  
4 0.1% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 0.1% 58%  
7 20% 58% Median
8 18% 38%  
9 14% 20%  
10 4% 6%  
11 0.8% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 6% 99.9%  
2 6% 94%  
3 27% 88%  
4 0% 61%  
5 0% 61%  
6 0.2% 61%  
7 20% 61% Median
8 22% 41% Last Result
9 14% 19%  
10 3% 5%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 12% 98.8%  
2 74% 87% Median
3 3% 13%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.4% 11%  
7 7% 10%  
8 3% 4% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 98 100% 93–104 91–106 90–107 87–109
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 96 99.7% 91–101 89–103 88–104 85–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 96 99.8% 91–101 89–103 87–104 86–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 97% 87–98 85–100 84–101 82–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 89% 84–96 83–97 82–99 79–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 52% 79–90 78–92 77–94 75–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 81 20% 75–87 74–88 72–89 70–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 76 3% 71–82 69–84 68–85 65–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 2% 70–81 68–82 68–84 65–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 71 0% 65–76 63–78 62–79 60–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 65–75 63–77 62–77 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 64 0% 60–70 58–71 56–73 54–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 62 0% 57–67 56–68 54–70 53–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–64 54–65 53–66 51–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 54 0% 47–59 46–61 45–63 43–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–39 28–41 27–43 25–45

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.7%  
88 0.2% 99.3%  
89 0.5% 99.1%  
90 1.3% 98.6%  
91 3% 97%  
92 2% 94%  
93 6% 92%  
94 4% 86%  
95 4% 82%  
96 8% 78%  
97 11% 70%  
98 16% 59%  
99 8% 43%  
100 6% 35% Median
101 4% 29%  
102 6% 24%  
103 5% 19%  
104 4% 13%  
105 3% 9%  
106 3% 6%  
107 1.0% 3%  
108 1.1% 2%  
109 0.2% 0.7%  
110 0.3% 0.5%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.7% Majority
86 0.3% 99.5%  
87 0.9% 99.2%  
88 1.4% 98%  
89 3% 97%  
90 3% 94%  
91 6% 92%  
92 4% 86%  
93 7% 82%  
94 10% 74%  
95 9% 64%  
96 6% 55%  
97 9% 49% Median
98 10% 39%  
99 7% 30%  
100 9% 22%  
101 3% 13%  
102 2% 10%  
103 5% 8%  
104 1.4% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.0%  
107 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 1.3% 99.7%  
87 1.0% 98%  
88 1.0% 97% Last Result
89 2% 96%  
90 3% 94%  
91 4% 91%  
92 10% 87%  
93 4% 77%  
94 6% 74%  
95 13% 67%  
96 4% 54%  
97 9% 50%  
98 13% 41%  
99 7% 28% Median
100 6% 21%  
101 5% 14%  
102 3% 10%  
103 2% 7%  
104 2% 5%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.8% 2%  
107 0.3% 0.8%  
108 0.3% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.5% 99.8%  
83 0.4% 99.2%  
84 2% 98.8%  
85 3% 97% Majority
86 2% 95%  
87 4% 93%  
88 4% 88%  
89 6% 85%  
90 7% 79%  
91 14% 72%  
92 5% 58%  
93 7% 53% Median
94 7% 47%  
95 10% 40%  
96 7% 30%  
97 11% 23%  
98 3% 12%  
99 2% 8%  
100 3% 7%  
101 1.3% 4%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.7% 1.5%  
104 0.6% 0.8%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.5% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.1%  
82 3% 98.7%  
83 2% 96%  
84 6% 94%  
85 2% 89% Majority
86 5% 86%  
87 5% 81%  
88 12% 76%  
89 9% 63%  
90 12% 55%  
91 8% 43%  
92 6% 35% Median
93 5% 29%  
94 5% 25%  
95 7% 20%  
96 3% 13%  
97 5% 9%  
98 1.4% 5%  
99 1.3% 3%  
100 1.1% 2%  
101 0.5% 0.8%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 0.8% 99.1%  
77 3% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 5% 94% Last Result
80 4% 89%  
81 7% 85%  
82 7% 77%  
83 11% 70%  
84 7% 59%  
85 7% 52% Median, Majority
86 7% 45%  
87 13% 37%  
88 8% 25%  
89 5% 16%  
90 2% 11%  
91 3% 9%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.3% 0.8%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 1.2% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 98.6%  
72 2% 98%  
73 0.6% 96%  
74 2% 96%  
75 6% 94%  
76 5% 88%  
77 5% 83% Last Result
78 6% 78%  
79 7% 72%  
80 12% 65%  
81 9% 52%  
82 5% 44%  
83 14% 39%  
84 5% 25% Median
85 4% 20% Majority
86 4% 16%  
87 5% 12%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.4%  
92 0.2% 0.8%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.2%  
67 0.9% 98.5%  
68 1.3% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 2% 93%  
71 3% 91%  
72 11% 88%  
73 7% 77%  
74 10% 70%  
75 7% 60%  
76 7% 53%  
77 5% 47%  
78 14% 42% Median
79 7% 28%  
80 6% 21%  
81 4% 15%  
82 4% 12%  
83 2% 7%  
84 3% 5%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.4% 1.2%  
87 0.5% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.5%  
66 0.3% 98.8%  
67 0.7% 98.5%  
68 3% 98%  
69 2% 95%  
70 4% 93%  
71 4% 89%  
72 11% 85%  
73 9% 74%  
74 6% 65%  
75 9% 59%  
76 11% 50% Last Result
77 7% 39% Median
78 6% 32%  
79 10% 26%  
80 4% 16%  
81 5% 11%  
82 2% 6%  
83 1.4% 4%  
84 0.9% 3%  
85 1.1% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.5%  
61 1.1% 99.3%  
62 1.0% 98%  
63 3% 97%  
64 3% 94%  
65 4% 91%  
66 5% 87%  
67 6% 81%  
68 4% 75%  
69 6% 71%  
70 8% 65%  
71 16% 57% Median
72 11% 41%  
73 8% 30%  
74 4% 22%  
75 4% 18%  
76 6% 14%  
77 2% 8%  
78 3% 6%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 0.5% 1.4%  
81 0.2% 0.9%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 99.6%  
62 1.3% 98.8%  
63 5% 97%  
64 2% 93%  
65 5% 91%  
66 8% 86%  
67 8% 78%  
68 13% 69% Last Result
69 7% 57%  
70 9% 50% Median
71 11% 41%  
72 10% 30%  
73 6% 20%  
74 3% 14%  
75 5% 11%  
76 1.3% 6%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.2%  
80 0.3% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.4%  
56 2% 98.9%  
57 1.4% 97%  
58 2% 96%  
59 3% 93%  
60 5% 90%  
61 5% 85%  
62 5% 80%  
63 13% 75%  
64 16% 62% Median
65 10% 46%  
66 4% 37%  
67 7% 33%  
68 8% 26%  
69 7% 19%  
70 4% 12%  
71 3% 7%  
72 1.5% 4%  
73 1.0% 3%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 0.8% 1.1%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.5%  
54 2% 98.6%  
55 2% 97%  
56 2% 95%  
57 4% 93%  
58 5% 89%  
59 6% 83%  
60 6% 78%  
61 14% 72%  
62 13% 58% Median
63 10% 45%  
64 6% 34%  
65 9% 28%  
66 5% 19%  
67 6% 14%  
68 4% 8%  
69 1.4% 4%  
70 1.1% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.7%  
52 0.5% 99.1%  
53 2% 98.6%  
54 4% 97%  
55 8% 93%  
56 5% 84%  
57 9% 79%  
58 8% 69%  
59 12% 62% Median
60 20% 49% Last Result
61 10% 29%  
62 6% 20%  
63 3% 14%  
64 4% 11%  
65 3% 7%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.5% 2%  
69 0.2% 1.1%  
70 0.7% 0.9%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.9% 99.5%  
45 2% 98.6%  
46 3% 97%  
47 5% 94%  
48 4% 89%  
49 5% 85%  
50 4% 80%  
51 8% 76%  
52 7% 69%  
53 9% 62%  
54 7% 53% Median
55 16% 45%  
56 4% 29%  
57 9% 25%  
58 5% 16%  
59 3% 11%  
60 2% 7%  
61 1.4% 5% Last Result
62 1.1% 4%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.6%  
26 0.8% 99.2%  
27 3% 98%  
28 3% 95%  
29 3% 93%  
30 9% 90%  
31 9% 81%  
32 8% 72%  
33 15% 63%  
34 6% 49%  
35 10% 43% Last Result, Median
36 6% 32%  
37 7% 26%  
38 5% 19%  
39 6% 14%  
40 2% 8%  
41 1.5% 6%  
42 2% 5%  
43 1.3% 3%  
44 0.7% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations