Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 20–26 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.8% 25.0–28.7% 24.5–29.2% 24.1–29.7% 23.3–30.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.6% 22.9–26.5% 22.4–27.0% 22.0–27.5% 21.2–28.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.6% 14.2–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.4–18.0% 12.8–18.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.8–13.2% 9.5–13.6% 9.0–14.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.1% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–8.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
Rødt 2.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.1% 2.3–5.5%
Venstre 4.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 45–53 43–54 43–54 41–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 41–49 41–49 40–50 38–52
Senterpartiet 19 28 25–32 25–33 24–34 23–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–23 18–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 9–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 2–9 1–9 1–9 1–11
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 0–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.8%  
42 1.0% 98.7%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 95%  
45 4% 91% Last Result
46 5% 86%  
47 12% 81%  
48 7% 69%  
49 8% 61%  
50 18% 54% Median
51 8% 35%  
52 16% 27%  
53 3% 11%  
54 7% 9%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 1.4% 99.4%  
40 3% 98%  
41 5% 95%  
42 8% 90%  
43 14% 82%  
44 17% 68%  
45 12% 52% Median
46 12% 39%  
47 10% 28%  
48 6% 18%  
49 7% 12% Last Result
50 3% 5%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.0%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 1.0% 99.6%  
24 2% 98.6%  
25 7% 96%  
26 6% 89%  
27 13% 83%  
28 21% 69% Median
29 14% 48%  
30 13% 34%  
31 7% 21%  
32 4% 14%  
33 7% 9%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.8% 0.9%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 0.8% 99.6%  
17 4% 98.9%  
18 7% 95%  
19 14% 88%  
20 14% 74%  
21 24% 60% Median
22 9% 36%  
23 20% 27%  
24 4% 8%  
25 2% 4%  
26 0.8% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 9% 96%  
11 22% 87% Last Result
12 22% 65% Median
13 24% 43%  
14 13% 19%  
15 5% 6%  
16 1.2% 1.5%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 50% 93% Median
3 7% 43%  
4 0.7% 36%  
5 0% 35%  
6 0% 35%  
7 6% 35%  
8 19% 29%  
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 65% 93% Median
3 0% 28%  
4 0% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0% 28%  
7 8% 28%  
8 16% 21%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 80% 97% Median
3 3% 17%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 6% 13%  
8 6% 7% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 33% 97%  
2 12% 65%  
3 42% 52% Median
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 5% 10%  
8 4% 6% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 104 100% 99–109 97–110 97–111 94–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 94 99.3% 89–98 88–100 87–101 84–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 92 98% 88–97 87–98 85–100 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 94% 86–94 84–96 83–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 92% 85–94 83–95 81–97 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 70% 81–91 79–91 78–92 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 81 14% 76–85 75–87 73–88 71–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 80 8% 75–84 74–86 72–88 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 0.9% 72–81 70–82 69–83 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 75 0.7% 71–80 69–81 68–82 64–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0% 69–79 68–79 66–80 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 73 0.1% 68–77 67–78 65–79 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 66–75 63–75 62–76 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 65 0% 60–70 59–72 58–72 56–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–61 52–62 51–63 49–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 54 0% 50–59 49–60 48–61 45–65
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 33 0% 30–39 29–41 28–42 27–44

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.4% 99.6%  
95 0.3% 99.2%  
96 0.9% 98.9%  
97 6% 98%  
98 2% 92%  
99 7% 91%  
100 5% 84%  
101 3% 79%  
102 8% 76%  
103 7% 68%  
104 12% 61% Median
105 11% 49%  
106 6% 38%  
107 7% 32% Last Result
108 14% 25%  
109 5% 11%  
110 3% 6%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.4% 1.1%  
113 0.3% 0.8%  
114 0.4% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0.3% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.6%  
84 0.2% 99.5%  
85 0.6% 99.3% Majority
86 0.9% 98.7%  
87 1.3% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 18% 94% Median
90 2% 76%  
91 5% 73%  
92 6% 69%  
93 11% 62%  
94 7% 51%  
95 15% 43%  
96 6% 28%  
97 8% 23%  
98 5% 14%  
99 1.4% 10%  
100 5% 8%  
101 1.3% 4%  
102 1.0% 2%  
103 0.4% 1.3%  
104 0.4% 0.9%  
105 0.4% 0.5%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.6% 99.6%  
84 0.8% 99.0%  
85 0.8% 98% Majority
86 1.1% 97%  
87 3% 96%  
88 5% 94% Last Result
89 3% 89%  
90 20% 86% Median
91 6% 66%  
92 10% 59%  
93 9% 49%  
94 13% 40%  
95 6% 26%  
96 7% 20%  
97 4% 13%  
98 5% 10%  
99 2% 5%  
100 1.0% 3%  
101 0.5% 2%  
102 0.6% 1.1%  
103 0.3% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
81 0.7% 99.1%  
82 0.7% 98%  
83 2% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 2% 94% Majority
86 4% 92%  
87 22% 87% Median
88 4% 65%  
89 9% 61%  
90 5% 51%  
91 10% 46%  
92 7% 36%  
93 14% 29%  
94 5% 14%  
95 3% 10%  
96 3% 7%  
97 1.4% 4%  
98 1.4% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.0%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
81 1.2% 98.7%  
82 0.7% 97%  
83 3% 97%  
84 2% 94%  
85 4% 92% Majority
86 5% 88%  
87 22% 83% Median
88 6% 62%  
89 8% 56%  
90 11% 47%  
91 8% 36%  
92 5% 29%  
93 11% 24%  
94 5% 13%  
95 2% 7%  
96 2% 5%  
97 0.8% 3%  
98 1.4% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.6%  
77 0.9% 99.2%  
78 1.4% 98%  
79 3% 97% Last Result
80 1.4% 94%  
81 7% 93%  
82 3% 86%  
83 5% 83%  
84 7% 78%  
85 25% 70% Median, Majority
86 8% 46%  
87 6% 37%  
88 7% 31%  
89 8% 24%  
90 3% 16%  
91 9% 13%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.5% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.3%  
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.8%  
72 1.0% 99.1%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 1.2% 97%  
75 3% 96%  
76 6% 93%  
77 13% 87% Last Result
78 9% 75% Median
79 9% 66%  
80 6% 57%  
81 13% 51%  
82 13% 37%  
83 6% 24%  
84 4% 18%  
85 4% 14% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 4% 7%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.2%  
91 0.5% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 1.4% 99.4%  
72 0.8% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 5% 93%  
76 11% 87%  
77 5% 76%  
78 8% 71% Median
79 11% 64%  
80 8% 53%  
81 6% 44%  
82 22% 38%  
83 5% 17%  
84 4% 12%  
85 2% 8% Majority
86 3% 6%  
87 0.7% 3%  
88 1.2% 3%  
89 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 0.9% 99.3%  
69 1.4% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 4% 95%  
72 4% 91%  
73 10% 87%  
74 6% 76%  
75 16% 71%  
76 11% 55% Last Result, Median
77 10% 45%  
78 7% 34%  
79 9% 27%  
80 8% 19%  
81 4% 10%  
82 2% 6%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.9% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 0.4% 99.1%  
67 1.0% 98.7%  
68 1.3% 98%  
69 5% 96%  
70 1.4% 92%  
71 5% 90%  
72 8% 86%  
73 6% 77%  
74 15% 72%  
75 7% 57%  
76 11% 49% Median
77 6% 38%  
78 5% 31%  
79 2% 27%  
80 18% 24%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.3%  
85 0.2% 0.7% Majority
86 0.1% 0.5%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.6%  
66 2% 99.0%  
67 2% 97%  
68 2% 96% Last Result
69 4% 94%  
70 8% 89%  
71 6% 81%  
72 19% 75%  
73 6% 56% Median
74 11% 51%  
75 12% 39%  
76 8% 27%  
77 5% 20%  
78 5% 15%  
79 6% 10%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.9% 1.5%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.8% 99.7%  
64 0.7% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 1.4% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 6% 93%  
69 8% 88%  
70 8% 80%  
71 10% 72%  
72 6% 62%  
73 11% 57% Median
74 10% 45%  
75 8% 35%  
76 4% 27%  
77 16% 23%  
78 3% 7%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.3% 2% Last Result
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 1.1% 99.2%  
62 1.3% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 94%  
65 2% 92%  
66 8% 90%  
67 10% 83%  
68 9% 73%  
69 8% 64%  
70 6% 56%  
71 10% 50% Median
72 11% 40% Last Result
73 7% 29%  
74 3% 22%  
75 16% 19%  
76 1.3% 3%  
77 0.5% 1.5%  
78 0.7% 0.9%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.5%  
57 0.4% 99.2%  
58 2% 98.9%  
59 3% 97%  
60 5% 94%  
61 14% 89% Median
62 7% 75% Last Result
63 6% 68%  
64 11% 62%  
65 12% 51%  
66 7% 39%  
67 8% 32%  
68 3% 24%  
69 5% 21%  
70 7% 16%  
71 2% 9%  
72 6% 8%  
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.3% 1.1%  
75 0.4% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 1.1% 99.3%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 5% 93%  
54 9% 88%  
55 9% 79%  
56 11% 70%  
57 19% 59% Median
58 9% 41%  
59 8% 31%  
60 10% 23% Last Result
61 7% 14%  
62 3% 7%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 0.6% 1.1%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.7%  
46 1.1% 99.3%  
47 0.7% 98%  
48 2% 98%  
49 4% 95%  
50 5% 92%  
51 4% 87%  
52 7% 83%  
53 18% 76%  
54 9% 58%  
55 9% 49% Median
56 7% 40%  
57 15% 33%  
58 4% 18%  
59 8% 14%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 5% Last Result
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.8%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.8%  
28 3% 99.4%  
29 2% 97%  
30 7% 95%  
31 6% 88%  
32 16% 82%  
33 22% 66% Median
34 8% 44%  
35 6% 36% Last Result
36 8% 30%  
37 7% 23%  
38 5% 15%  
39 3% 11%  
40 2% 7%  
41 2% 5%  
42 2% 3%  
43 1.0% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.7%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations