Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 27 April–4 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.5% 24.8–28.4% 24.3–29.0% 23.8–29.4% 23.0–30.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.8% 23.0–26.6% 22.5–27.1% 22.1–27.6% 21.3–28.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.4% 13.9–16.9% 13.5–17.4% 13.2–17.8% 12.6–18.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.1% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.2% 7.8–12.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.1% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.2% 4.4–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.4%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.1% 2.5–4.0% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 1.9–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 47 44–51 43–52 43–52 41–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–49 42–50 41–50 40–52
Senterpartiet 19 28 25–33 24–34 24–34 23–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 16–20 15–21 15–21 14–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–14 9–15 9–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–12 8–12 7–12 2–13
Rødt 1 2 2–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–3 1–7 0–7 0–8
Venstre 8 2 2–3 2–7 1–8 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.2%  
43 5% 98%  
44 6% 93%  
45 10% 87% Last Result
46 21% 77%  
47 17% 56% Median
48 12% 39%  
49 9% 28%  
50 5% 19%  
51 8% 13%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.7% 1.0%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.5%  
41 3% 98.9%  
42 6% 96%  
43 10% 90%  
44 14% 80%  
45 18% 67% Median
46 10% 49%  
47 21% 39%  
48 7% 18%  
49 4% 11% Last Result
50 5% 7%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.8%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.8%  
23 1.2% 99.5%  
24 4% 98%  
25 7% 95%  
26 13% 88%  
27 9% 75%  
28 17% 66% Median
29 7% 49%  
30 12% 42%  
31 14% 30%  
32 6% 16%  
33 3% 10%  
34 5% 7%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 1.1% 99.6%  
15 5% 98.5%  
16 12% 94%  
17 16% 82%  
18 28% 66% Median
19 19% 38%  
20 14% 20%  
21 4% 6%  
22 0.9% 2%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 10% 95%  
11 30% 86% Last Result
12 17% 55% Median
13 23% 38%  
14 11% 16%  
15 4% 5%  
16 1.2% 1.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 1.0% 100%  
3 0.7% 99.0%  
4 0.1% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0.7% 98%  
8 13% 97%  
9 28% 85%  
10 32% 56% Median
11 14% 24%  
12 9% 10%  
13 1.5% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100% Last Result
2 71% 91% Median
3 0% 19%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 9% 19%  
8 8% 10%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 42% 95%  
2 9% 53% Median
3 36% 43%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0.1% 8%  
7 6% 8%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 4% 99.8%  
2 81% 95% Median
3 5% 15%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 5% 10%  
8 4% 4% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 100% 96–102 95–103 93–104 91–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 100% 94–102 91–103 90–104 89–106
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 99 100% 96–101 95–102 95–103 94–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 97 99.8% 91–99 90–100 89–101 86–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 93% 85–93 84–94 83–95 81–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 87 71% 82–90 80–92 79–92 78–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 71% 82–91 80–91 79–92 77–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 79 7% 76–84 75–85 74–86 73–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 0.6% 72–81 70–82 69–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0% 70–79 68–80 68–80 66–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 70 0% 67–73 66–74 65–76 65–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 70 0% 68–73 67–74 66–74 63–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 67 0% 65–72 63–72 63–73 60–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 62–69 61–70 61–71 58–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 54–61 53–63 52–63 51–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 51 0% 49–56 48–58 47–59 46–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 29–38 28–39 28–41 26–43

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.1% 99.7%  
90 0.1% 99.6%  
91 0.1% 99.5%  
92 0.3% 99.4%  
93 2% 99.1%  
94 2% 97%  
95 5% 96%  
96 9% 91%  
97 9% 82% Median
98 10% 73%  
99 15% 63%  
100 17% 48%  
101 18% 31%  
102 8% 13%  
103 3% 5%  
104 3% 3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 3% 99.4%  
91 2% 97%  
92 2% 95%  
93 2% 93%  
94 3% 91%  
95 6% 87%  
96 8% 81%  
97 13% 73% Median
98 7% 60%  
99 8% 53%  
100 19% 45%  
101 13% 26%  
102 6% 13%  
103 4% 7%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.4% 1.0%  
106 0.4% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.3% 99.9%  
94 1.4% 99.5%  
95 5% 98%  
96 8% 93%  
97 9% 85% Median
98 17% 76%  
99 25% 59%  
100 15% 34%  
101 10% 19%  
102 4% 9%  
103 3% 5%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.4% 1.1%  
106 0.2% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8% Majority
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.2% 99.5%  
88 0.6% 99.2%  
89 4% 98.6%  
90 2% 95%  
91 4% 93%  
92 4% 89%  
93 6% 85%  
94 9% 79%  
95 9% 70% Median
96 10% 61%  
97 11% 51%  
98 16% 40%  
99 15% 24%  
100 6% 9%  
101 2% 3%  
102 2% 2%  
103 0.3% 0.3%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.7%  
82 0.7% 99.3%  
83 2% 98.6%  
84 3% 96%  
85 5% 93% Majority
86 8% 88%  
87 11% 80% Median
88 8% 69%  
89 6% 61%  
90 15% 54%  
91 16% 39%  
92 7% 23%  
93 8% 16%  
94 2% 7%  
95 2% 5%  
96 2% 2%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
78 0.9% 99.5%  
79 3% 98.6%  
80 2% 95%  
81 2% 93%  
82 6% 91%  
83 6% 86%  
84 9% 80%  
85 10% 71% Median, Majority
86 7% 61%  
87 15% 54%  
88 10% 39%  
89 14% 29%  
90 6% 15%  
91 3% 9%  
92 4% 5%  
93 0.4% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.3% 99.4%  
79 3% 99.1% Last Result
80 2% 96%  
81 3% 94%  
82 5% 91%  
83 7% 86%  
84 8% 79%  
85 12% 71% Median, Majority
86 9% 60%  
87 5% 50%  
88 16% 45%  
89 14% 29%  
90 5% 15%  
91 7% 10%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 2% 99.5%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 95%  
76 8% 93%  
77 7% 84%  
78 16% 77%  
79 15% 61% Median
80 6% 46%  
81 8% 39%  
82 11% 31%  
83 8% 20%  
84 5% 12%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.7% 1.4%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 3% 99.0%  
70 2% 96%  
71 3% 94%  
72 5% 91%  
73 5% 87%  
74 9% 81%  
75 7% 72% Median
76 10% 65% Last Result
77 10% 55%  
78 11% 44%  
79 16% 34%  
80 6% 18%  
81 4% 12%  
82 4% 8%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.7%  
67 0.9% 99.1%  
68 3% 98% Last Result
69 3% 95%  
70 4% 91%  
71 8% 87%  
72 8% 80%  
73 14% 71% Median
74 6% 58%  
75 14% 52%  
76 11% 38%  
77 4% 27%  
78 12% 23%  
79 5% 10%  
80 3% 5%  
81 1.3% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 3% 99.8%  
66 3% 97%  
67 8% 95%  
68 18% 87%  
69 17% 69% Median
70 15% 52%  
71 10% 37%  
72 9% 27%  
73 9% 18%  
74 5% 9%  
75 2% 4%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.3% 0.9%  
78 0.1% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
63 0.2% 99.5%  
64 0.4% 99.3%  
65 0.8% 98.9%  
66 3% 98%  
67 4% 95%  
68 10% 91%  
69 15% 81% Median
70 25% 66%  
71 17% 41%  
72 9% 24%  
73 8% 15%  
74 5% 7%  
75 1.4% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.6%  
61 0.6% 99.5%  
62 0.6% 98.9%  
63 3% 98%  
64 4% 95%  
65 8% 90%  
66 15% 82%  
67 22% 67% Median
68 9% 45%  
69 8% 36%  
70 12% 29%  
71 6% 17%  
72 5% 10%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.5%  
59 0.8% 99.3%  
60 0.9% 98%  
61 5% 98%  
62 6% 93%  
63 9% 87%  
64 16% 78%  
65 24% 61% Median
66 10% 38%  
67 6% 28%  
68 12% 22%  
69 3% 10%  
70 5% 7%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.6%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 97%  
54 8% 93%  
55 7% 84%  
56 7% 78%  
57 16% 71% Median
58 27% 55%  
59 6% 28%  
60 7% 21% Last Result
61 5% 14%  
62 3% 9%  
63 4% 5%  
64 0.9% 1.5%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.7%  
47 3% 98.9%  
48 5% 96%  
49 10% 90%  
50 16% 81%  
51 16% 65% Median
52 14% 49%  
53 6% 36%  
54 12% 30%  
55 5% 17%  
56 4% 12%  
57 2% 8%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.5%  
61 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 1.3% 99.4%  
28 4% 98%  
29 4% 94%  
30 7% 89%  
31 12% 83%  
32 9% 71% Median
33 12% 62%  
34 14% 51%  
35 12% 37% Last Result
36 7% 25%  
37 6% 18%  
38 4% 12%  
39 4% 9%  
40 1.5% 4%  
41 1.0% 3%  
42 0.6% 2%  
43 0.8% 1.2%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations