Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 30 April–5 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Høyre 25.0% 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Rødt 2.4% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 49 45–53 44–55 43–55 42–58
Høyre 45 48 44–52 42–53 41–54 40–55
Senterpartiet 19 27 24–31 23–31 22–32 21–34
Fremskrittspartiet 27 17 15–19 14–20 13–21 12–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 8–15
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–11 3–11 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2 1–7 1–7 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.8% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 3% 97%  
45 8% 94%  
46 14% 86%  
47 8% 72%  
48 9% 64%  
49 19% 54% Last Result, Median
50 9% 36%  
51 9% 26%  
52 5% 17%  
53 5% 12%  
54 2% 7%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.6% 1.1%  
58 0.5% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.6%  
41 4% 99.1%  
42 2% 95%  
43 2% 93%  
44 8% 91%  
45 7% 83% Last Result
46 11% 75%  
47 10% 64%  
48 19% 54% Median
49 9% 35%  
50 9% 26%  
51 4% 16%  
52 5% 12%  
53 4% 7%  
54 3% 3%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.8% 99.6%  
22 3% 98.9%  
23 4% 96%  
24 13% 92%  
25 9% 80%  
26 12% 70%  
27 18% 58% Median
28 11% 40%  
29 11% 29%  
30 4% 18%  
31 10% 14%  
32 2% 4%  
33 0.7% 2%  
34 1.0% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.5%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.4%  
14 5% 97%  
15 16% 92%  
16 20% 76%  
17 24% 56% Median
18 13% 32%  
19 12% 19%  
20 4% 7%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.8%  
9 11% 97%  
10 20% 86%  
11 36% 66% Last Result, Median
12 12% 30%  
13 9% 17%  
14 7% 8%  
15 1.0% 1.3%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 3% 99.8%  
3 4% 97%  
4 0.2% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 5% 93%  
8 20% 88%  
9 35% 68% Median
10 22% 33%  
11 9% 11%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 24% 99.5%  
2 5% 76%  
3 41% 71% Median
4 0% 30%  
5 0% 30%  
6 0.2% 30%  
7 18% 29%  
8 9% 11% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100% Last Result
2 70% 91% Median
3 0% 21%  
4 0% 21%  
5 0% 21%  
6 0.2% 21%  
7 11% 21%  
8 8% 10%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 8% 99.8%  
2 86% 92% Median
3 0.7% 6%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0.3% 5%  
7 3% 5%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 100 100% 94–104 93–104 92–106 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 98 100% 94–103 93–105 92–106 89–108
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 97 100% 92–103 90–103 89–104 87–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.7% 91–101 89–101 88–103 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 93% 85–95 84–97 83–98 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 88 86% 83–93 82–94 81–95 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 70% 82–91 81–93 80–94 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 80 10% 75–84 74–86 73–87 70–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 79 7% 74–84 72–85 71–86 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0.5% 71–80 70–82 69–82 67–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 72 0% 66–77 66–79 65–80 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 71 0% 66–75 64–76 63–77 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 67 0% 62–71 60–73 59–73 57–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 60–69 58–70 57–71 55–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 55–65 55–66 54–66 52–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 53 0% 49–58 48–59 47–61 45–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–37 28–39 27–40 25–43

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
89 0.3% 99.8%  
90 0.9% 99.5%  
91 0.7% 98.6%  
92 2% 98%  
93 2% 96%  
94 5% 94%  
95 5% 90%  
96 7% 85%  
97 8% 78%  
98 9% 69%  
99 9% 61% Median
100 16% 52%  
101 7% 36%  
102 6% 29%  
103 8% 22%  
104 10% 15%  
105 2% 5%  
106 2% 3%  
107 0.8% 2%  
108 0.4% 0.8%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.7%  
90 0.6% 99.3%  
91 0.9% 98.7%  
92 1.3% 98%  
93 5% 97%  
94 4% 92%  
95 14% 88%  
96 8% 74%  
97 10% 66%  
98 7% 57% Median
99 5% 50%  
100 11% 44%  
101 6% 33%  
102 6% 27%  
103 11% 20%  
104 4% 10%  
105 3% 6%  
106 1.3% 3%  
107 1.5% 2%  
108 0.1% 0.5%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.2% 99.5%  
88 1.4% 99.4%  
89 1.4% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 3% 95%  
92 3% 92%  
93 6% 89%  
94 5% 83%  
95 7% 78%  
96 10% 71%  
97 15% 62% Median
98 9% 47%  
99 5% 38%  
100 8% 33%  
101 11% 25%  
102 4% 14%  
103 6% 10%  
104 3% 5%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.4% 0.9%  
107 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.5% 99.7% Majority
86 0.6% 99.3%  
87 0.7% 98.7%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 3% 97%  
90 2% 94%  
91 6% 92%  
92 5% 86%  
93 15% 82%  
94 10% 67%  
95 9% 57%  
96 8% 48% Median
97 6% 40%  
98 10% 34%  
99 6% 24%  
100 6% 18%  
101 8% 12%  
102 1.2% 4%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 2% 98.6%  
84 4% 97%  
85 5% 93% Majority
86 12% 88%  
87 7% 76%  
88 10% 69%  
89 8% 59% Median
90 6% 51%  
91 8% 44%  
92 6% 37%  
93 13% 31%  
94 3% 17%  
95 5% 15%  
96 4% 10%  
97 3% 6%  
98 0.9% 3%  
99 1.5% 2%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
78 0.4% 99.8%  
79 0.7% 99.4%  
80 0.7% 98.7%  
81 2% 98%  
82 5% 97%  
83 3% 92%  
84 3% 89%  
85 7% 86% Majority
86 7% 79%  
87 13% 73%  
88 12% 60% Median
89 16% 48%  
90 7% 32%  
91 5% 25%  
92 5% 21%  
93 7% 15%  
94 4% 8%  
95 2% 4%  
96 1.3% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.3%  
79 1.1% 98.7% Last Result
80 1.5% 98%  
81 4% 96%  
82 3% 92%  
83 7% 89%  
84 12% 82%  
85 8% 70% Majority
86 11% 62%  
87 8% 51% Median
88 7% 43%  
89 9% 36%  
90 7% 27%  
91 11% 20%  
92 3% 9%  
93 2% 6%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.9% 1.4%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.4%  
72 0.7% 98.5%  
73 2% 98%  
74 6% 96%  
75 3% 90%  
76 6% 87% Last Result
77 9% 81%  
78 7% 72%  
79 13% 65% Median
80 20% 52%  
81 4% 32%  
82 5% 28%  
83 11% 23%  
84 3% 12%  
85 5% 10% Majority
86 3% 5%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 0.3% 1.3%  
89 0.7% 1.0%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 1.5% 99.5%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 3% 97%  
73 4% 94%  
74 5% 90%  
75 3% 85%  
76 13% 83%  
77 6% 69%  
78 8% 63%  
79 6% 56% Median
80 8% 49%  
81 10% 41%  
82 7% 31%  
83 12% 24%  
84 5% 12%  
85 4% 7% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.5% 1.4%  
88 0.4% 1.0%  
89 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 1.2% 99.3% Last Result
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 5% 94%  
72 6% 89%  
73 14% 83%  
74 10% 69%  
75 6% 59%  
76 10% 54% Median
77 11% 44%  
78 10% 33%  
79 6% 23%  
80 9% 18%  
81 4% 9%  
82 3% 5%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 1.1% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
63 0.4% 99.5%  
64 0.6% 99.1%  
65 3% 98%  
66 6% 95%  
67 4% 90%  
68 11% 86%  
69 8% 75%  
70 5% 67%  
71 9% 62% Median
72 15% 53%  
73 10% 38%  
74 7% 29%  
75 5% 22%  
76 6% 17%  
77 3% 11%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.4% 3%  
81 1.4% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.6%  
62 1.5% 99.5%  
63 1.3% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 4% 94%  
66 11% 90%  
67 6% 80%  
68 6% 73%  
69 11% 67%  
70 5% 56% Median
71 7% 50%  
72 10% 43%  
73 8% 34%  
74 14% 26%  
75 4% 12%  
76 5% 8%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.3%  
80 0.3% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.3%  
59 3% 98.9%  
60 2% 96%  
61 2% 94%  
62 2% 91%  
63 11% 89%  
64 9% 78%  
65 5% 69%  
66 8% 63%  
67 16% 55% Median
68 10% 39%  
69 9% 30%  
70 6% 21%  
71 6% 15%  
72 3% 9%  
73 4% 6%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.6% 99.6%  
56 0.5% 99.0%  
57 3% 98.6%  
58 2% 95%  
59 3% 93%  
60 2% 90%  
61 11% 88%  
62 9% 77%  
63 5% 67%  
64 8% 62%  
65 16% 54% Median
66 9% 37%  
67 10% 28%  
68 6% 19%  
69 6% 13%  
70 3% 7%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.1% 2% Last Result
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.6%  
53 1.5% 99.1%  
54 2% 98%  
55 7% 96%  
56 5% 89%  
57 14% 84%  
58 5% 70%  
59 9% 65%  
60 18% 56% Last Result, Median
61 10% 38%  
62 8% 28%  
63 4% 20%  
64 5% 16%  
65 6% 11%  
66 3% 5%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.5% 2%  
69 0.8% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.6%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 2% 98%  
48 5% 96%  
49 5% 91%  
50 6% 86%  
51 9% 79%  
52 8% 70%  
53 16% 62% Median
54 8% 46%  
55 5% 38%  
56 6% 33%  
57 14% 26%  
58 5% 12%  
59 3% 7%  
60 1.0% 4%  
61 0.9% 3% Last Result
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.9%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9%  
26 1.3% 99.3%  
27 3% 98%  
28 4% 95%  
29 9% 91%  
30 6% 82%  
31 11% 76%  
32 11% 66% Median
33 10% 54%  
34 7% 44%  
35 7% 37% Last Result
36 19% 30%  
37 4% 10%  
38 1.5% 7%  
39 1.2% 5%  
40 1.4% 4%  
41 1.0% 2%  
42 0.6% 1.5%  
43 0.6% 0.9%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations