Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 5–6 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.9% 25.0–29.0% 24.4–29.6% 24.0–30.1% 23.1–31.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.1% 23.2–27.1% 22.6–27.7% 22.2–28.2% 21.3–29.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.5% 12.0–15.1% 11.6–15.6% 11.3–16.0% 10.6–16.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.1% 8.0–10.6% 7.6–11.0% 7.3–11.3% 6.8–12.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.8% 6.3–10.1% 5.9–10.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.4% 3.6–5.5% 3.4–5.8% 3.2–6.1% 2.9–6.7%
Rødt 2.4% 4.3% 3.5–5.4% 3.3–5.7% 3.1–6.0% 2.8–6.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.7% 2.6–6.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 44–53 42–54 42–55 39–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 41–49 40–51 40–52 39–54
Senterpartiet 19 24 20–27 19–28 19–30 18–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 16 13–19 13–20 12–20 10–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–17 11–17 11–18 10–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–9 2–10 1–11 1–12
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 2–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.8% 99.5%  
41 1.1% 98.7%  
42 3% 98%  
43 3% 94%  
44 3% 91%  
45 8% 89% Last Result
46 13% 81%  
47 8% 68%  
48 14% 60% Median
49 10% 46%  
50 11% 36%  
51 7% 25%  
52 4% 18%  
53 6% 14%  
54 3% 8%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.1% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.5% 99.5%  
40 5% 99.0%  
41 5% 94%  
42 11% 89%  
43 14% 78%  
44 10% 64%  
45 12% 54% Median
46 12% 42%  
47 5% 30%  
48 13% 25%  
49 5% 13% Last Result
50 2% 7%  
51 2% 6%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.5% 1.1%  
54 0.2% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 5% 98% Last Result
20 5% 93%  
21 8% 88%  
22 13% 80%  
23 12% 68%  
24 12% 55% Median
25 12% 44%  
26 13% 31%  
27 9% 18%  
28 4% 9%  
29 2% 5%  
30 1.0% 3%  
31 1.2% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.6% 99.9%  
11 0.6% 99.3%  
12 2% 98.7%  
13 10% 97%  
14 12% 87%  
15 16% 75%  
16 14% 59% Median
17 19% 46%  
18 15% 27%  
19 5% 12%  
20 6% 8%  
21 1.1% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.6%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 2% 99.6%  
11 8% 98% Last Result
12 16% 90%  
13 19% 74%  
14 16% 54% Median
15 19% 39%  
16 9% 20%  
17 6% 11%  
18 3% 5%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 22% 97%  
3 1.5% 76%  
4 0.3% 74%  
5 0% 74%  
6 0.1% 74%  
7 17% 74%  
8 33% 56% Median
9 16% 24%  
10 5% 8%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.8% 100% Last Result
2 28% 99.2%  
3 0% 71%  
4 0% 71%  
5 0% 71%  
6 0.8% 71%  
7 22% 70% Median
8 21% 48%  
9 18% 26%  
10 6% 8%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 4% 95%  
3 33% 91%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 0.8% 58%  
7 23% 57% Median
8 24% 34% Last Result
9 7% 11%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 5% 99.6%  
2 75% 95% Median
3 1.2% 20%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 1.3% 19%  
7 11% 18%  
8 5% 7% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 97 99.9% 91–103 89–104 89–106 87–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 95 99.6% 91–101 88–102 87–104 85–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 96 99.8% 91–102 89–103 87–104 85–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 85% 83–97 82–99 81–99 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 89 86% 84–95 84–96 82–98 79–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 39% 77–90 76–90 76–91 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 81 23% 76–87 75–88 73–89 70–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 81 15% 72–86 70–87 70–88 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 1.1% 69–80 68–82 67–84 65–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 73 0.2% 67–78 66–80 65–82 62–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 72 0.1% 66–78 65–80 63–80 61–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 64–75 63–75 61–77 60–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 67 0% 62–73 61–74 60–76 57–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 64 0% 60–69 58–70 57–72 54–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 55–64 54–65 53–67 52–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 57 0% 51–64 49–65 48–66 46–68
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 28–38 26–40 26–41 24–45

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.2% 99.5%  
88 0.8% 99.4%  
89 5% 98.5%  
90 3% 94%  
91 2% 91%  
92 3% 89%  
93 5% 86%  
94 5% 81%  
95 13% 76%  
96 8% 63%  
97 7% 55% Median
98 8% 47%  
99 13% 40%  
100 6% 26%  
101 8% 21%  
102 3% 13%  
103 4% 10%  
104 3% 6%  
105 0.7% 3%  
106 0.8% 3%  
107 0.9% 2% Last Result
108 0.9% 1.1%  
109 0% 0.2%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.6% 99.6% Majority
86 0.4% 99.0%  
87 3% 98.6%  
88 0.8% 96% Last Result
89 3% 95%  
90 2% 92%  
91 10% 90%  
92 10% 80%  
93 6% 70%  
94 5% 63%  
95 10% 59%  
96 13% 48%  
97 6% 36%  
98 6% 30% Median
99 11% 23%  
100 2% 13%  
101 4% 11%  
102 2% 7%  
103 2% 5%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.4% 1.3%  
106 0.5% 0.9%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.4% 99.8% Majority
86 1.4% 99.4%  
87 1.2% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 2% 95%  
90 3% 94%  
91 7% 91%  
92 9% 84%  
93 9% 75%  
94 5% 66%  
95 10% 60%  
96 9% 50%  
97 7% 41%  
98 4% 35% Median
99 4% 31%  
100 4% 27%  
101 9% 22%  
102 5% 13%  
103 4% 8%  
104 2% 4%  
105 1.2% 2%  
106 0.2% 0.9%  
107 0.5% 0.7%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.6% 99.5%  
80 0.8% 98.9% Last Result
81 1.4% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 6% 94%  
84 4% 89%  
85 16% 85% Majority
86 8% 69%  
87 4% 61%  
88 9% 57%  
89 5% 47%  
90 4% 43% Median
91 3% 39%  
92 4% 36%  
93 4% 32%  
94 8% 28%  
95 5% 19%  
96 3% 14%  
97 2% 11%  
98 2% 9%  
99 6% 7%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.7%  
80 0.6% 99.5% Last Result
81 0.7% 98.9%  
82 1.4% 98%  
83 1.5% 97%  
84 9% 95%  
85 7% 86% Majority
86 5% 80%  
87 4% 74%  
88 13% 70%  
89 9% 57%  
90 5% 49%  
91 10% 44% Median
92 12% 34%  
93 6% 22%  
94 4% 16%  
95 4% 12%  
96 3% 8%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.0% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.7% 2%  
101 0.8% 1.0%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 1.0% 99.7%  
75 1.1% 98.7%  
76 6% 98%  
77 5% 92%  
78 7% 87%  
79 8% 80% Last Result
80 6% 72%  
81 6% 65%  
82 6% 59%  
83 9% 53% Median
84 4% 43%  
85 8% 39% Majority
86 7% 32%  
87 7% 25%  
88 4% 18%  
89 2% 14%  
90 8% 12%  
91 2% 4%  
92 2% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.1% 0.5%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.3%  
72 1.1% 99.1%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 1.2% 97%  
75 5% 96%  
76 3% 91%  
77 6% 87% Last Result
78 7% 81%  
79 8% 74%  
80 10% 66%  
81 11% 56%  
82 8% 45%  
83 7% 37%  
84 7% 30% Median
85 4% 23% Majority
86 5% 19%  
87 7% 14%  
88 3% 7%  
89 1.1% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.3% 1.3%  
92 0.6% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 6% 99.5%  
71 2% 93%  
72 2% 91%  
73 3% 89%  
74 5% 86%  
75 8% 81%  
76 4% 72%  
77 4% 68%  
78 3% 64%  
79 4% 61%  
80 5% 57%  
81 9% 53% Median
82 4% 43%  
83 8% 39%  
84 16% 31%  
85 4% 15% Majority
86 6% 11%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.4% 3%  
89 0.8% 2% Last Result
90 0.6% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 0.9% 99.1%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 6% 97%  
69 7% 91%  
70 4% 84%  
71 4% 80%  
72 7% 76%  
73 7% 69%  
74 11% 62%  
75 9% 51%  
76 7% 42% Last Result, Median
77 5% 35%  
78 11% 30%  
79 7% 19%  
80 5% 12%  
81 2% 7%  
82 1.3% 6%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 1.1% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.3%  
64 1.2% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 96%  
67 5% 92%  
68 9% 87%  
69 4% 78%  
70 4% 73%  
71 4% 69%  
72 7% 65%  
73 9% 59% Median
74 10% 50%  
75 5% 40%  
76 9% 34%  
77 9% 25%  
78 7% 16%  
79 3% 9%  
80 2% 6%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.2% 3%  
83 1.4% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.9% 99.8%  
62 0.9% 98.9% Last Result
63 0.8% 98%  
64 0.7% 97%  
65 3% 97%  
66 4% 94%  
67 3% 90%  
68 8% 87%  
69 6% 79%  
70 13% 74%  
71 8% 60%  
72 7% 53%  
73 8% 45%  
74 13% 37% Median
75 5% 24%  
76 5% 19%  
77 3% 14%  
78 2% 11%  
79 3% 9%  
80 5% 6%  
81 0.8% 1.5%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 3% 99.4%  
62 1.3% 96%  
63 4% 95%  
64 3% 91%  
65 8% 87%  
66 12% 79%  
67 8% 67%  
68 8% 59% Last Result
69 4% 50% Median
70 8% 46%  
71 10% 39%  
72 5% 28%  
73 8% 24%  
74 3% 16%  
75 9% 13%  
76 1.3% 4%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.5% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.7%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.7%  
58 0.3% 99.1%  
59 1.1% 98.7%  
60 3% 98%  
61 2% 95%  
62 4% 93%  
63 5% 89%  
64 6% 84%  
65 15% 78%  
66 8% 63% Median
67 6% 55%  
68 9% 49%  
69 6% 40%  
70 10% 34%  
71 11% 24%  
72 3% 13%  
73 2% 10%  
74 4% 8%  
75 2% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.3% 0.8%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 0.9% 99.3%  
56 0.6% 98%  
57 1.4% 98%  
58 3% 96%  
59 3% 94%  
60 4% 90%  
61 6% 86%  
62 7% 80%  
63 18% 73%  
64 9% 55% Median
65 6% 47%  
66 10% 40%  
67 7% 31%  
68 8% 24%  
69 9% 15%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.4% 4%  
72 0.5% 3% Last Result
73 1.4% 2%  
74 0.6% 0.7%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.6% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.1%  
54 3% 97%  
55 13% 94%  
56 10% 81%  
57 11% 71%  
58 12% 61%  
59 9% 49% Median
60 8% 40% Last Result
61 4% 32%  
62 8% 28%  
63 9% 20%  
64 5% 11%  
65 2% 7%  
66 2% 5%  
67 1.0% 3%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.2% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.5%  
48 0.8% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 2% 95%  
51 8% 93%  
52 4% 85%  
53 6% 81%  
54 10% 75%  
55 5% 65%  
56 6% 60%  
57 8% 54% Median
58 7% 46%  
59 7% 39%  
60 9% 32%  
61 4% 23% Last Result
62 7% 19%  
63 2% 12%  
64 4% 10%  
65 4% 6%  
66 1.2% 3%  
67 0.6% 1.4%  
68 0.4% 0.8%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.7% 99.6%  
25 1.3% 98.9%  
26 3% 98%  
27 4% 95%  
28 4% 91%  
29 8% 87%  
30 8% 78%  
31 10% 71%  
32 15% 61%  
33 8% 46% Median
34 7% 38%  
35 12% 31% Last Result
36 4% 19%  
37 4% 15%  
38 3% 11%  
39 2% 8%  
40 2% 6%  
41 2% 4%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.4% 1.2%  
44 0.2% 0.8%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations