Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 5–10 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.2% 26.4–30.2% 25.9–30.7% 25.5–31.2% 24.6–32.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.7% 24.9–28.6% 24.4–29.1% 24.0–29.6% 23.2–30.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.5–14.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.1% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–8.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.6% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 3.9–7.7%
Rødt 2.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Venstre 4.4% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 52 47–55 46–55 45–56 44–58
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 45–53 44–53 43–54 42–58
Senterpartiet 19 21 19–24 18–25 18–26 17–27
Fremskrittspartiet 27 17 14–19 14–20 13–21 12–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 9–14 9–15 8–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–12 8–12 8–13 2–14
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.9% 99.5%  
45 2% 98.7% Last Result
46 5% 97%  
47 7% 91%  
48 4% 84%  
49 4% 80%  
50 11% 77%  
51 14% 66%  
52 7% 51% Median
53 16% 44%  
54 16% 28%  
55 10% 13%  
56 1.4% 3%  
57 0.4% 2%  
58 0.8% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.3%  
44 3% 97%  
45 12% 94%  
46 13% 82%  
47 16% 69%  
48 8% 53% Median
49 15% 45% Last Result
50 10% 30%  
51 5% 20%  
52 4% 15%  
53 8% 12%  
54 1.1% 3%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.4%  
57 0.2% 0.9%  
58 0.4% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.8%  
18 4% 98.5%  
19 21% 94% Last Result
20 15% 73%  
21 20% 58% Median
22 14% 38%  
23 13% 25%  
24 5% 11%  
25 3% 6%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.9% 1.1%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.8%  
13 2% 99.2%  
14 13% 97%  
15 10% 84%  
16 19% 74%  
17 13% 56% Median
18 18% 43%  
19 16% 25%  
20 5% 9%  
21 2% 4%  
22 0.9% 1.2%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.9%  
9 8% 98.8%  
10 15% 91%  
11 25% 76% Last Result
12 25% 52% Median
13 12% 26%  
14 10% 15%  
15 3% 5%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.8% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.2%  
4 0% 99.1%  
5 0% 99.0%  
6 0% 99.0%  
7 1.4% 99.0%  
8 16% 98%  
9 17% 81%  
10 27% 64% Median
11 22% 38%  
12 12% 15%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.7% 0.9%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100% Last Result
2 53% 94% Median
3 0% 40%  
4 0% 40%  
5 0% 40%  
6 0.4% 40%  
7 18% 40%  
8 18% 22%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.9% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 19% 99.6%  
2 4% 80%  
3 52% 76% Median
4 0% 24%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0.2% 24%  
7 9% 24%  
8 13% 15% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 15% 96%  
2 79% 81% Median
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.1% 2%  
7 0.9% 1.4%  
8 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 95 99.9% 91–100 90–102 89–104 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 95 99.7% 89–100 88–101 88–102 85–105
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 99.8% 91–99 88–101 87–102 86–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 97% 86–97 85–98 84–99 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 62% 81–90 80–92 79–94 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 33% 78–88 78–89 77–91 75–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 84 38% 79–88 77–89 75–90 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 19% 77–86 76–87 75–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 74 0.2% 70–78 68–81 67–82 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0.2% 69–78 68–79 67–80 65–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 74 0.1% 69–78 67–79 65–80 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 66–74 64–76 64–76 62–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 66–73 63–74 62–76 60–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 69 0% 64–71 62–72 60–74 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–64 55–65 54–67 53–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 57 0% 52–61 51–63 50–64 48–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 26 0% 23–30 22–32 22–33 20–34

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.5% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.4%  
87 0.7% 99.2%  
88 0.7% 98.5%  
89 2% 98%  
90 5% 96%  
91 4% 90%  
92 3% 86%  
93 18% 83% Median
94 12% 65%  
95 7% 53%  
96 17% 47%  
97 7% 30%  
98 5% 23%  
99 7% 18%  
100 4% 11%  
101 1.3% 7%  
102 1.1% 6%  
103 2% 5%  
104 3% 3%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.2% 100%  
85 0.3% 99.7% Majority
86 0.2% 99.4%  
87 0.3% 99.2%  
88 5% 98.9% Last Result
89 6% 93%  
90 2% 87%  
91 7% 85%  
92 10% 78%  
93 7% 68%  
94 7% 61% Median
95 13% 53%  
96 9% 40%  
97 8% 31%  
98 4% 22%  
99 5% 19%  
100 6% 14%  
101 5% 8%  
102 1.2% 3%  
103 0.9% 2%  
104 0.3% 1.1%  
105 0.4% 0.9%  
106 0.3% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.8%  
84 0% 99.8%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.4% 99.7%  
87 3% 99.2%  
88 2% 96%  
89 2% 95%  
90 2% 93%  
91 3% 91%  
92 12% 88%  
93 10% 75%  
94 8% 65%  
95 16% 57% Median
96 5% 41%  
97 13% 36%  
98 9% 23%  
99 6% 14%  
100 3% 8%  
101 2% 5%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.0% 2%  
104 0.2% 0.6%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 1.1% 99.8%  
83 1.0% 98.7%  
84 0.6% 98%  
85 6% 97% Majority
86 6% 91%  
87 3% 85%  
88 12% 82%  
89 12% 70%  
90 5% 58%  
91 8% 53% Median
92 13% 45%  
93 6% 33%  
94 7% 27%  
95 4% 19%  
96 5% 15%  
97 5% 11%  
98 2% 5%  
99 1.1% 3%  
100 0.7% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.2%  
102 0.5% 0.6%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 1.0% 99.4%  
78 0.5% 98%  
79 2% 98%  
80 3% 96% Last Result
81 5% 93%  
82 8% 87%  
83 11% 79% Median
84 6% 68%  
85 20% 62% Majority
86 15% 42%  
87 6% 27%  
88 5% 22%  
89 5% 17%  
90 3% 11%  
91 2% 8%  
92 2% 6%  
93 0.7% 4%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.5% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 1.2% 99.1%  
77 2% 98% Last Result
78 6% 96%  
79 11% 90%  
80 9% 78%  
81 6% 69%  
82 7% 63% Median
83 13% 55%  
84 10% 43%  
85 8% 33% Majority
86 6% 25%  
87 4% 19%  
88 6% 15%  
89 5% 8%  
90 0.9% 4%  
91 1.2% 3%  
92 0.3% 1.5%  
93 0.6% 1.2%  
94 0.4% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.7%  
75 2% 99.3%  
76 0.7% 97%  
77 2% 96%  
78 2% 94%  
79 3% 92%  
80 5% 89%  
81 5% 83%  
82 6% 78%  
83 15% 73%  
84 20% 58% Median
85 6% 38% Majority
86 11% 32%  
87 8% 21%  
88 5% 13%  
89 3% 7% Last Result
90 2% 4%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.5%  
74 1.1% 99.2%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 10% 94%  
78 16% 84%  
79 8% 67% Last Result
80 10% 59%  
81 8% 49% Median
82 7% 41%  
83 8% 34%  
84 7% 26%  
85 4% 19% Majority
86 6% 15%  
87 4% 9%  
88 1.3% 4%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.4% 1.3%  
91 0.6% 0.9%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 1.0% 99.4%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 95%  
70 6% 92%  
71 9% 86%  
72 13% 77% Median
73 5% 64%  
74 16% 59%  
75 8% 43%  
76 10% 35%  
77 12% 25%  
78 3% 12%  
79 2% 9%  
80 2% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.4% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.7%  
66 1.1% 99.3%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 3% 97%  
69 12% 94%  
70 11% 82%  
71 10% 71%  
72 10% 61% Median
73 11% 51%  
74 6% 40%  
75 9% 34%  
76 7% 25% Last Result
77 5% 18%  
78 4% 13%  
79 4% 9%  
80 3% 5%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.3% 1.5%  
83 0.7% 1.1%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 3% 99.6%  
66 2% 97%  
67 1.1% 95%  
68 1.3% 94%  
69 4% 93%  
70 7% 89%  
71 5% 82%  
72 7% 77%  
73 17% 70%  
74 7% 53% Median
75 12% 47%  
76 18% 35%  
77 3% 17%  
78 4% 14%  
79 5% 10%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.7% 1.5%  
83 0.2% 0.8%  
84 0.5% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.4% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.6%  
63 1.5% 99.3%  
64 4% 98%  
65 4% 94%  
66 13% 90%  
67 14% 77%  
68 8% 63% Last Result
69 11% 55% Median
70 10% 43%  
71 4% 33%  
72 10% 29%  
73 7% 19%  
74 3% 12%  
75 3% 9%  
76 4% 7%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.3%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 3% 98.9%  
63 1.5% 96%  
64 1.4% 95%  
65 2% 94%  
66 5% 92%  
67 7% 86%  
68 6% 79%  
69 7% 74%  
70 19% 67%  
71 10% 47% Median
72 11% 37%  
73 16% 26%  
74 6% 10%  
75 0.9% 4%  
76 0.8% 3%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.4% 1.4%  
79 0.9% 1.0%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.7%  
60 3% 99.4%  
61 1.2% 97%  
62 1.3% 95%  
63 2% 94%  
64 5% 92%  
65 7% 87%  
66 3% 79%  
67 6% 77%  
68 21% 71%  
69 10% 50% Median
70 14% 40%  
71 17% 26%  
72 6% 9% Last Result
73 1.0% 4%  
74 0.9% 3%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.3% 1.3%  
77 0.9% 1.0%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 2% 99.1%  
55 3% 97%  
56 12% 95%  
57 8% 83%  
58 9% 75%  
59 13% 65%  
60 14% 52% Last Result, Median
61 10% 38%  
62 5% 29%  
63 9% 24%  
64 7% 15%  
65 5% 8%  
66 0.7% 3%  
67 0.8% 3%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 0.8% 1.1%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 1.3% 99.2%  
50 2% 98%  
51 6% 96%  
52 5% 90%  
53 4% 86%  
54 7% 81%  
55 5% 74%  
56 12% 70%  
57 11% 57% Median
58 11% 46%  
59 12% 35%  
60 11% 23%  
61 2% 12% Last Result
62 2% 10%  
63 4% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.6% 1.2%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 1.3% 99.4%  
22 5% 98%  
23 5% 94%  
24 13% 88%  
25 10% 75%  
26 16% 65% Median
27 12% 49%  
28 14% 37%  
29 8% 23%  
30 5% 15%  
31 3% 9%  
32 3% 7%  
33 1.5% 3%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations