Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 12–16 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 43–51 42–52 41–52 40–55
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 43–50 42–51 41–52 40–54
Senterpartiet 19 24 22–27 21–28 20–29 19–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 17–22 17–24 16–24 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–10 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 1–9 1–10 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 2–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.7%  
41 2% 98.7%  
42 2% 97%  
43 7% 95%  
44 5% 88%  
45 6% 83% Last Result
46 6% 77%  
47 19% 70%  
48 17% 51% Median
49 11% 34%  
50 9% 22%  
51 4% 13%  
52 7% 9%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.5%  
42 3% 97%  
43 8% 94%  
44 15% 86%  
45 13% 71%  
46 13% 57% Median
47 11% 44%  
48 10% 33%  
49 8% 23% Last Result
50 8% 15%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 4%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.7% 1.1%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8% Last Result
20 2% 98%  
21 5% 96%  
22 12% 91%  
23 14% 79%  
24 19% 65% Median
25 11% 45%  
26 14% 34%  
27 11% 20%  
28 4% 9%  
29 3% 5%  
30 0.5% 2%  
31 0.6% 1.1%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.8%  
16 3% 99.1%  
17 9% 96%  
18 13% 87%  
19 17% 75%  
20 15% 57% Median
21 22% 42%  
22 12% 21%  
23 3% 9%  
24 5% 6%  
25 0.9% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.9% 99.9%  
10 6% 99.0%  
11 19% 93% Last Result
12 25% 73% Median
13 15% 49%  
14 12% 33%  
15 11% 21%  
16 8% 10%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100% Last Result
2 21% 98.7%  
3 4% 78%  
4 0.9% 74%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0% 73%  
7 6% 73%  
8 34% 67% Median
9 22% 33%  
10 8% 11%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100%  
2 4% 94%  
3 37% 90%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0.2% 53%  
7 10% 53% Median
8 29% 43% Last Result
9 10% 13%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 21% 100% Last Result
2 63% 79% Median
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.5% 17%  
7 9% 16%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.9% 1.1%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 77% 98% Median
3 3% 20%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.3% 17%  
7 9% 17%  
8 7% 8% Last Result
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 94–105 93–106 93–108 90–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 96 99.9% 91–101 90–102 88–103 86–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 93 98% 88–99 86–100 86–102 83–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 93% 85–96 84–97 83–99 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 87 64% 81–92 80–93 78–94 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 42% 79–89 77–90 76–91 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 82 36% 77–88 76–89 75–91 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 37% 78–88 77–90 76–90 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 2% 71–82 70–83 69–84 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 76 2% 70–81 69–83 67–83 65–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 66–76 66–77 64–78 63–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 65–76 64–77 63–77 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 68 0% 64–75 63–76 61–76 58–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 63–72 62–73 61–74 58–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–64 54–65 53–66 52–68
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 57 0% 51–61 49–63 48–64 46–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 28–37 27–39 26–40 25–43

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.8%  
91 1.0% 99.3%  
92 0.8% 98%  
93 3% 98%  
94 5% 95%  
95 3% 90%  
96 5% 86%  
97 5% 82%  
98 7% 77%  
99 11% 70%  
100 7% 59%  
101 13% 53% Median
102 5% 39%  
103 15% 35%  
104 7% 20%  
105 7% 13%  
106 3% 6%  
107 0.9% 3% Last Result
108 0.7% 3%  
109 0.6% 2%  
110 0.5% 1.2%  
111 0.6% 0.7%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 1.1% 99.4%  
88 1.1% 98% Last Result
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 96%  
91 7% 94%  
92 9% 87%  
93 7% 78%  
94 5% 71%  
95 8% 67%  
96 15% 59%  
97 12% 44% Median
98 7% 32%  
99 6% 25%  
100 7% 19%  
101 4% 13%  
102 4% 9%  
103 3% 5%  
104 0.6% 2%  
105 0.8% 1.3%  
106 0.3% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100% Last Result
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.9% 99.7%  
84 0.3% 98.8%  
85 0.6% 98% Majority
86 3% 98%  
87 1.3% 95%  
88 4% 94%  
89 5% 90%  
90 13% 84%  
91 10% 72%  
92 10% 62% Median
93 7% 52%  
94 9% 45%  
95 7% 37%  
96 10% 30%  
97 7% 20%  
98 3% 13%  
99 5% 11%  
100 1.5% 6%  
101 1.3% 5%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.3% 1.1%  
104 0.4% 0.7%  
105 0.3% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
81 2% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 98%  
83 0.9% 98%  
84 4% 97%  
85 3% 93% Majority
86 2% 90%  
87 6% 88%  
88 13% 81%  
89 14% 69%  
90 10% 54% Median
91 8% 44%  
92 8% 36%  
93 6% 29%  
94 6% 22%  
95 4% 16%  
96 3% 11%  
97 4% 9%  
98 1.3% 4%  
99 1.1% 3%  
100 2% 2%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.9%  
78 2% 99.3%  
79 0.9% 97%  
80 5% 96% Last Result
81 7% 91%  
82 8% 84%  
83 6% 76%  
84 7% 70% Median
85 7% 64% Majority
86 6% 56%  
87 6% 51%  
88 11% 44%  
89 9% 33%  
90 7% 24%  
91 6% 17%  
92 5% 11%  
93 3% 6%  
94 1.1% 4%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.4%  
97 0.7% 0.9%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 3% 99.3%  
77 2% 96%  
78 3% 94%  
79 9% 91% Last Result
80 8% 82%  
81 11% 74%  
82 6% 63% Median
83 10% 57%  
84 5% 47%  
85 7% 42% Majority
86 6% 35%  
87 10% 30%  
88 5% 20%  
89 6% 14%  
90 4% 8%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.8%  
73 0.5% 99.1%  
74 1.0% 98.6%  
75 1.1% 98%  
76 3% 96%  
77 5% 94%  
78 6% 89%  
79 7% 83%  
80 9% 76%  
81 11% 67%  
82 6% 56%  
83 6% 49%  
84 7% 44%  
85 7% 36% Median, Majority
86 6% 30%  
87 8% 24%  
88 7% 16%  
89 5% 9% Last Result
90 0.9% 4%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.6% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 1.0% 99.5%  
75 0.9% 98.6%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96% Last Result
78 3% 93%  
79 6% 89%  
80 9% 84%  
81 13% 75%  
82 5% 62%  
83 8% 57%  
84 12% 49%  
85 10% 37% Median, Majority
86 9% 27%  
87 3% 18%  
88 7% 15%  
89 2% 8%  
90 4% 6%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.5% 1.3%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 1.1% 99.5%  
69 1.2% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 6% 95%  
72 7% 89%  
73 6% 81%  
74 8% 75%  
75 8% 67%  
76 14% 59% Last Result
77 6% 45% Median
78 10% 39%  
79 9% 29%  
80 5% 20%  
81 5% 15%  
82 5% 10%  
83 2% 6%  
84 1.1% 3%  
85 1.1% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.1%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.6%  
66 0.3% 99.3%  
67 2% 98.9%  
68 1.3% 97%  
69 1.5% 95%  
70 5% 94%  
71 3% 89%  
72 7% 87%  
73 10% 80%  
74 7% 70%  
75 9% 63%  
76 7% 55%  
77 10% 48% Median
78 10% 38%  
79 13% 28%  
80 5% 16%  
81 4% 10%  
82 1.3% 6%  
83 3% 5%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.3% 2% Majority
86 0.9% 1.2%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 2% 99.2%  
65 2% 97%  
66 6% 96%  
67 8% 90%  
68 16% 82% Last Result
69 9% 66%  
70 8% 58% Median
71 11% 50%  
72 5% 38%  
73 8% 34%  
74 7% 25%  
75 7% 19%  
76 5% 12%  
77 4% 7%  
78 1.5% 3%  
79 1.0% 1.4%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.6%  
62 0.8% 99.2%  
63 1.2% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 6% 94%  
66 4% 88%  
67 9% 84%  
68 5% 75%  
69 9% 70%  
70 13% 62% Median
71 14% 49%  
72 9% 34%  
73 4% 25%  
74 6% 21%  
75 4% 15%  
76 6% 11%  
77 3% 5%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.2%  
80 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.3%  
60 0.6% 98.8%  
61 0.7% 98%  
62 0.9% 97% Last Result
63 3% 97%  
64 7% 94%  
65 7% 87%  
66 15% 80%  
67 5% 65%  
68 13% 61% Median
69 7% 47%  
70 11% 41%  
71 7% 30%  
72 5% 23%  
73 5% 18%  
74 3% 14%  
75 5% 10%  
76 3% 5%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.7%  
59 0.6% 99.1%  
60 0.9% 98%  
61 1.4% 98%  
62 4% 96%  
63 7% 92%  
64 8% 85%  
65 9% 77%  
66 6% 69%  
67 9% 63%  
68 14% 54% Median
69 16% 40%  
70 9% 24%  
71 3% 15%  
72 5% 12% Last Result
73 3% 7%  
74 3% 4%  
75 0.6% 1.2%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.7%  
53 2% 99.2%  
54 5% 97%  
55 9% 93%  
56 8% 84%  
57 14% 76%  
58 7% 62% Median
59 8% 54%  
60 11% 47% Last Result
61 13% 36%  
62 6% 23%  
63 3% 17%  
64 6% 14%  
65 5% 8%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.7% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.3% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 1.2% 99.0%  
48 2% 98%  
49 1.0% 95%  
50 4% 94%  
51 4% 91%  
52 5% 87%  
53 13% 82%  
54 9% 69%  
55 4% 60%  
56 4% 55%  
57 18% 51% Median
58 8% 33%  
59 6% 25%  
60 6% 19%  
61 4% 13% Last Result
62 4% 9%  
63 1.1% 5%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.7% 1.2%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.7%  
26 3% 99.4%  
27 5% 96%  
28 5% 91%  
29 5% 86%  
30 7% 81%  
31 8% 73%  
32 7% 65%  
33 12% 58% Median
34 14% 46%  
35 5% 32% Last Result
36 10% 26%  
37 6% 16%  
38 2% 10%  
39 4% 7%  
40 1.0% 3%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.6% 1.3%  
43 0.4% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations