Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 19–25 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.2% 24.5–28.1% 24.0–28.7% 23.5–29.1% 22.7–30.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.8% 24.1–27.7% 23.6–28.2% 23.1–28.7% 22.3–29.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.0% 13.6–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 12.9–17.5% 12.3–18.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.1% 10.9–13.6% 10.5–14.0% 10.2–14.4% 9.6–15.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 3.9–7.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
Venstre 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 41–49 41–51 39–52 39–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–50 41–51 41–53 39–54
Senterpartiet 19 27 24–31 23–32 22–33 21–34
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–25 18–26 18–26 17–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 8–12 8–13 8–13 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 3–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 3% 99.7%  
40 2% 97%  
41 8% 95%  
42 8% 87%  
43 11% 79%  
44 9% 68%  
45 13% 59% Last Result, Median
46 10% 47%  
47 14% 37%  
48 9% 22%  
49 4% 13%  
50 2% 9%  
51 4% 7%  
52 1.5% 3%  
53 1.4% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.4% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.5%  
40 1.2% 99.2%  
41 7% 98%  
42 7% 91%  
43 10% 83%  
44 15% 74%  
45 13% 59% Median
46 10% 46%  
47 13% 36%  
48 5% 23%  
49 7% 18% Last Result
50 3% 11%  
51 4% 7%  
52 1.0% 4%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.8%  
22 2% 98.8%  
23 4% 97%  
24 9% 93%  
25 10% 84%  
26 13% 74%  
27 24% 61% Median
28 8% 37%  
29 7% 29%  
30 11% 23%  
31 3% 11%  
32 5% 9%  
33 2% 3%  
34 1.4% 1.5%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.9% 99.7%  
18 10% 98.8%  
19 9% 88%  
20 13% 79%  
21 18% 66% Median
22 25% 49%  
23 5% 23%  
24 6% 19%  
25 6% 13%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.5% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.3%  
4 0% 99.3%  
5 0% 99.3%  
6 0% 99.3%  
7 0.5% 99.3%  
8 15% 98.9%  
9 26% 84%  
10 16% 58% Median
11 18% 41% Last Result
12 14% 23%  
13 8% 9%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 7% 99.8%  
3 5% 93%  
4 0.1% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 0% 89%  
7 9% 89%  
8 30% 79% Median
9 26% 49%  
10 16% 23%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 16% 99.9%  
3 0% 84%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0% 84%  
6 0% 84%  
7 17% 84%  
8 32% 67% Median
9 18% 34%  
10 12% 17%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 34% 98%  
2 8% 64%  
3 32% 56% Median
4 0% 23%  
5 0% 23%  
6 0.3% 23%  
7 17% 23%  
8 6% 6% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100%  
1 40% 59% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 100% 93–104 92–105 91–106 90–107
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 98 100% 93–103 91–104 90–105 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 94 99.7% 89–99 88–100 87–103 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 92 93% 85–96 84–97 83–98 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 91 94% 85–96 84–96 83–97 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 84 44% 78–90 78–91 77–93 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 28% 78–87 77–88 75–89 74–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 78 6% 73–84 73–85 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 2% 70–81 70–83 69–84 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0% 68–77 67–78 66–79 64–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 70 0% 65–76 64–77 63–78 62–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 67 0% 62–72 61–73 59–74 57–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 63–73 61–74 59–74 58–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 52–60 51–61 50–62 48–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 45–54 44–56 43–57 41–58
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 27–36 26–37 25–38 24–39

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.4% 99.5%  
91 3% 99.1%  
92 3% 96%  
93 4% 94%  
94 8% 89%  
95 13% 81%  
96 5% 68%  
97 4% 63%  
98 8% 59% Median
99 11% 51%  
100 10% 40%  
101 6% 30%  
102 6% 24%  
103 5% 18%  
104 7% 13%  
105 3% 6%  
106 2% 3%  
107 0.5% 0.9%  
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 0.6% 99.3%  
90 1.3% 98.7%  
91 3% 97%  
92 4% 95%  
93 3% 91%  
94 6% 88%  
95 9% 82%  
96 8% 73%  
97 14% 65% Median
98 7% 51%  
99 7% 44%  
100 6% 37%  
101 18% 31%  
102 3% 14%  
103 5% 11%  
104 3% 5%  
105 1.1% 3%  
106 0.9% 2%  
107 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.6% 99.7% Majority
86 0.6% 99.2%  
87 2% 98.5%  
88 3% 96% Last Result
89 5% 93%  
90 11% 88%  
91 6% 77%  
92 6% 71%  
93 13% 66% Median
94 8% 52%  
95 6% 44%  
96 8% 39%  
97 8% 31%  
98 8% 22%  
99 8% 15%  
100 2% 6%  
101 0.7% 4%  
102 1.2% 4%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.3% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 2% 99.7%  
83 1.1% 98%  
84 3% 97%  
85 4% 93% Majority
86 2% 90%  
87 12% 87%  
88 5% 75%  
89 4% 70%  
90 6% 66% Median
91 9% 61%  
92 18% 52%  
93 6% 33%  
94 9% 28%  
95 7% 18%  
96 5% 11%  
97 3% 6%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.6% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.3% 99.7%  
82 1.3% 99.4%  
83 1.1% 98%  
84 3% 97%  
85 8% 94% Majority
86 8% 87%  
87 7% 79%  
88 4% 71%  
89 10% 67%  
90 7% 57% Median
91 12% 51%  
92 12% 38%  
93 6% 27%  
94 4% 21%  
95 6% 18%  
96 7% 12%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.5% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.6%  
76 1.4% 99.2%  
77 1.2% 98% Last Result
78 7% 97%  
79 8% 90%  
80 5% 81%  
81 9% 76%  
82 7% 67%  
83 7% 59% Median
84 8% 53%  
85 7% 44% Majority
86 7% 37%  
87 8% 30%  
88 4% 22%  
89 4% 18%  
90 6% 14%  
91 5% 8%  
92 0.8% 4%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 2% 2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.5%  
75 2% 99.1%  
76 2% 97%  
77 5% 95%  
78 4% 90%  
79 6% 86% Last Result
80 8% 80%  
81 5% 72%  
82 9% 67% Median
83 8% 59%  
84 22% 51%  
85 4% 28% Majority
86 6% 24%  
87 11% 18%  
88 4% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.3% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.1%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.5%  
71 1.5% 99.2%  
72 2% 98%  
73 7% 95%  
74 6% 88%  
75 4% 82%  
76 6% 79%  
77 12% 73%  
78 12% 62% Median
79 7% 49%  
80 10% 43%  
81 4% 33%  
82 7% 29%  
83 8% 21%  
84 8% 13%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 1.1% 3%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 2% 99.2%  
69 2% 98%  
70 6% 95%  
71 6% 90%  
72 5% 83%  
73 8% 78%  
74 5% 71%  
75 14% 65% Median
76 7% 52% Last Result
77 11% 45%  
78 10% 33%  
79 3% 24%  
80 5% 21%  
81 6% 15%  
82 2% 10%  
83 5% 8%  
84 0.4% 3%  
85 2% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.6% 99.3%  
66 3% 98.7%  
67 5% 96%  
68 8% 91% Last Result
69 4% 83%  
70 7% 78%  
71 6% 71%  
72 11% 65% Median
73 6% 55%  
74 15% 49%  
75 10% 34%  
76 10% 24%  
77 6% 14%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.8% 1.1%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.6%  
63 2% 99.1%  
64 3% 97%  
65 7% 94%  
66 5% 87%  
67 6% 82%  
68 6% 76%  
69 10% 70%  
70 11% 60% Median
71 8% 49%  
72 4% 41%  
73 5% 37%  
74 13% 32%  
75 8% 19%  
76 4% 11%  
77 3% 6%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.4% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 2% 100%  
58 0.2% 98%  
59 1.3% 98%  
60 0.9% 97%  
61 3% 96%  
62 5% 93%  
63 13% 87%  
64 9% 75%  
65 7% 66%  
66 6% 59% Median
67 7% 53%  
68 11% 46%  
69 7% 35%  
70 13% 29%  
71 5% 16%  
72 4% 11% Last Result
73 3% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 2% 99.8%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 0.5% 97%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 95%  
63 9% 92%  
64 11% 83%  
65 6% 72%  
66 8% 66%  
67 6% 58% Median
68 10% 52%  
69 7% 41%  
70 7% 34%  
71 12% 27%  
72 6% 16%  
73 4% 10%  
74 4% 6%  
75 1.0% 2%  
76 0.7% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 0.9% 99.2%  
50 3% 98%  
51 5% 95%  
52 11% 91%  
53 7% 79%  
54 10% 72%  
55 10% 62% Median
56 10% 52%  
57 17% 43%  
58 9% 26%  
59 4% 17%  
60 5% 13% Last Result
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 1.1% 98%  
44 5% 96%  
45 6% 92%  
46 5% 86%  
47 11% 81%  
48 18% 70%  
49 10% 52% Median
50 11% 42%  
51 6% 32%  
52 9% 26%  
53 4% 17%  
54 4% 13%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 5%  
57 0.5% 3%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 1.0% 99.5%  
25 2% 98%  
26 4% 96%  
27 6% 93%  
28 9% 86%  
29 10% 77%  
30 12% 67%  
31 13% 55% Median
32 7% 42%  
33 5% 35%  
34 15% 30%  
35 4% 15% Last Result
36 2% 10%  
37 4% 8%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations