Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 25–28 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.5% 23.5–27.7% 22.9–28.3% 22.4–28.9% 21.5–29.9%
Høyre 25.0% 25.4% 23.3–27.6% 22.8–28.2% 22.3–28.7% 21.3–29.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.0% 11.5–14.7% 11.0–15.2% 10.7–15.7% 10.0–16.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.0% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.0% 8.0–12.4% 7.4–13.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.4–9.0% 6.1–9.4% 5.8–9.8% 5.3–10.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.3% 5.2–7.6% 4.9–8.0% 4.7–8.3% 4.3–9.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.8–5.3% 2.7–5.5% 2.3–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.6% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.0% 1.4–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 43–51 42–52 41–54 40–56
Høyre 45 46 42–51 40–52 39–52 37–55
Senterpartiet 19 24 20–27 19–29 19–29 18–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 15–21 14–22 14–22 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 11–17 10–18 9–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 11 9–13 9–14 8–15 7–16
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.6%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 9% 92%  
44 13% 83%  
45 11% 70%  
46 7% 59%  
47 12% 52% Median
48 9% 41%  
49 13% 32% Last Result
50 7% 18%  
51 4% 12%  
52 3% 7%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.8% 99.8%  
38 0.6% 99.0%  
39 1.5% 98%  
40 3% 97%  
41 4% 94%  
42 7% 90%  
43 7% 84%  
44 6% 77%  
45 12% 72% Last Result
46 14% 59% Median
47 15% 46%  
48 10% 30%  
49 6% 20%  
50 4% 15%  
51 2% 11%  
52 6% 9%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.9% 1.4%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 1.5% 99.7%  
19 5% 98% Last Result
20 7% 93%  
21 11% 87%  
22 10% 75%  
23 12% 65%  
24 15% 53% Median
25 8% 37%  
26 13% 29%  
27 8% 17%  
28 3% 9%  
29 4% 6%  
30 1.3% 2%  
31 0.5% 1.1%  
32 0.3% 0.6%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.9%  
13 1.3% 99.5%  
14 5% 98%  
15 8% 94%  
16 10% 86%  
17 14% 76%  
18 15% 62% Median
19 20% 47%  
20 10% 26%  
21 9% 16%  
22 4% 6%  
23 1.3% 2%  
24 0.6% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.3%  
11 8% 96% Last Result
12 16% 88%  
13 19% 71%  
14 20% 52% Median
15 16% 32%  
16 7% 16%  
17 5% 8%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.9% 1.1%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.3% 99.8%  
8 4% 99.5%  
9 7% 95%  
10 20% 88%  
11 28% 68% Median
12 17% 40%  
13 13% 22%  
14 6% 10%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.6% 1.0%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 8% 100% Last Result
2 50% 92% Median
3 0% 42%  
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 0.1% 42%  
7 10% 42%  
8 23% 32%  
9 6% 9%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 67% 97% Median
3 2% 31%  
4 0% 29%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0.1% 28%  
7 9% 28%  
8 15% 20% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 43% 68% Median
2 13% 25%  
3 11% 13%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.1% 2%  
7 0.9% 2%  
8 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 100 100% 95–105 93–107 92–107 89–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 99.9% 90–102 90–104 89–104 86–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 96 99.5% 89–100 88–102 87–104 84–105
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 93 98% 87–98 86–100 85–101 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 87% 83–94 82–96 81–97 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 47% 78–89 77–90 76–92 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 35% 77–88 76–90 76–91 74–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 80 12% 75–85 73–87 72–88 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0.1% 67–76 65–78 65–79 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 65–76 65–77 63–78 62–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 69 0% 63–74 62–75 62–77 58–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 67 0% 63–73 61–74 60–75 57–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 59–69 57–70 56–71 53–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–65 55–66 54–67 52–70
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 50 0% 46–57 45–57 43–59 42–62
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 28 0% 24–34 23–35 22–37 21–39

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.4% 99.4%  
91 1.0% 99.1%  
92 1.0% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 3% 95%  
95 5% 91%  
96 10% 86%  
97 7% 76%  
98 9% 70% Median
99 4% 61%  
100 10% 56%  
101 11% 47%  
102 9% 35%  
103 9% 27%  
104 5% 18%  
105 3% 13%  
106 4% 10%  
107 4% 6%  
108 1.0% 2%  
109 0.4% 1.3%  
110 0.3% 0.9%  
111 0.4% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.4% 99.7%  
87 0.4% 99.3%  
88 0.9% 98.9% Last Result
89 2% 98%  
90 7% 96%  
91 4% 89%  
92 4% 85%  
93 4% 80%  
94 5% 76%  
95 12% 71%  
96 7% 59%  
97 9% 52% Median
98 6% 43%  
99 9% 37%  
100 15% 28%  
101 2% 13%  
102 3% 11%  
103 2% 7%  
104 3% 5%  
105 1.3% 2%  
106 0.4% 1.0%  
107 0.2% 0.6%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.5% Majority
86 0.6% 99.0%  
87 1.2% 98%  
88 4% 97%  
89 4% 93%  
90 6% 89%  
91 5% 84%  
92 4% 78%  
93 6% 74%  
94 8% 68%  
95 9% 60%  
96 9% 51% Median
97 5% 42%  
98 10% 37%  
99 11% 27%  
100 7% 16%  
101 2% 9%  
102 3% 7%  
103 1.5% 4%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.5% 0.9%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.2% 99.7%  
83 0.6% 99.4%  
84 1.3% 98.9%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 3% 95%  
87 4% 92%  
88 4% 88%  
89 5% 84%  
90 6% 79%  
91 6% 73% Median
92 15% 67%  
93 11% 52%  
94 8% 41%  
95 7% 33%  
96 7% 26%  
97 4% 19%  
98 7% 14%  
99 2% 8%  
100 3% 6%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.3% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.3% 99.3%  
80 0.8% 99.0% Last Result
81 2% 98%  
82 4% 96%  
83 2% 92%  
84 2% 90%  
85 10% 87% Majority
86 14% 77%  
87 5% 63% Median
88 8% 58%  
89 8% 50%  
90 7% 42%  
91 12% 36%  
92 6% 23%  
93 5% 17%  
94 4% 13%  
95 4% 9%  
96 3% 5%  
97 1.0% 3%  
98 0.5% 2%  
99 0.7% 1.1%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.5%  
75 1.1% 99.3%  
76 1.2% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 5% 95%  
79 6% 89% Last Result
80 6% 83%  
81 5% 78%  
82 4% 73%  
83 13% 69%  
84 8% 56%  
85 9% 47% Median, Majority
86 7% 38%  
87 8% 31%  
88 7% 24%  
89 7% 16%  
90 4% 9%  
91 1.2% 5%  
92 2% 3%  
93 1.2% 2%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.4% 99.5%  
75 1.2% 99.1%  
76 4% 98%  
77 4% 94% Last Result
78 4% 90%  
79 7% 86%  
80 8% 79%  
81 7% 71%  
82 10% 64%  
83 9% 54% Median
84 10% 45%  
85 9% 35% Majority
86 9% 26%  
87 6% 17%  
88 5% 11%  
89 1.2% 6%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.1% 3%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.7% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.8% 99.6%  
71 0.5% 98.8%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 4% 94%  
75 4% 91%  
76 5% 87%  
77 6% 82%  
78 12% 76% Median
79 7% 64%  
80 8% 57%  
81 8% 49%  
82 5% 41%  
83 14% 36%  
84 10% 22%  
85 2% 12% Majority
86 2% 10%  
87 4% 7%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.6% 2% Last Result
90 0.3% 0.9%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.5%  
64 1.0% 99.0%  
65 5% 98%  
66 3% 93%  
67 5% 90%  
68 6% 85%  
69 12% 80%  
70 9% 68%  
71 6% 59%  
72 12% 53% Median
73 10% 42%  
74 7% 31%  
75 9% 24%  
76 6% 15% Last Result
77 4% 10%  
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 1.1% 99.5%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 7% 95%  
66 3% 88%  
67 9% 84%  
68 7% 75% Last Result
69 9% 68%  
70 7% 59%  
71 12% 51% Median
72 10% 39%  
73 6% 29%  
74 4% 23%  
75 9% 19%  
76 5% 10%  
77 3% 6%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.7% 1.2%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.3% 99.4%  
60 0.4% 99.1%  
61 1.1% 98.6%  
62 4% 98%  
63 4% 94%  
64 3% 90%  
65 5% 87%  
66 9% 82%  
67 9% 73% Median
68 11% 64%  
69 10% 53%  
70 4% 43%  
71 9% 39%  
72 6% 29%  
73 10% 23%  
74 5% 13%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 0.9% 3%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 99.3%  
59 0.5% 98.8%  
60 1.0% 98%  
61 4% 97%  
62 4% 94%  
63 5% 90%  
64 4% 85%  
65 5% 81%  
66 10% 76% Median
67 17% 67%  
68 8% 50%  
69 5% 42%  
70 6% 37%  
71 13% 31%  
72 7% 17%  
73 3% 11%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.5% 1.0%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 0.6% 99.4%  
55 1.1% 98.8%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 3% 96%  
58 1.4% 93%  
59 4% 92%  
60 5% 88%  
61 7% 83%  
62 6% 75%  
63 7% 69%  
64 11% 63% Median
65 16% 51%  
66 9% 35%  
67 5% 26%  
68 4% 21%  
69 7% 17%  
70 6% 9%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.3% 1.3% Last Result
73 0.5% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.6%  
53 1.2% 99.2%  
54 2% 98%  
55 4% 96%  
56 5% 92%  
57 9% 86%  
58 12% 77%  
59 8% 65%  
60 7% 56% Last Result
61 9% 50% Median
62 9% 40%  
63 11% 31%  
64 6% 20%  
65 7% 14%  
66 2% 7%  
67 3% 5%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 0.5% 1.3%  
70 0.3% 0.8%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.7%  
43 1.5% 98.6%  
44 2% 97%  
45 2% 95%  
46 5% 93%  
47 9% 88%  
48 14% 80%  
49 6% 66% Median
50 12% 60%  
51 6% 48%  
52 7% 42%  
53 7% 35%  
54 7% 28%  
55 6% 21%  
56 4% 15%  
57 7% 11%  
58 1.4% 4%  
59 0.9% 3%  
60 0.5% 2%  
61 0.4% 1.3% Last Result
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.7%  
22 2% 98.8%  
23 6% 97%  
24 8% 91%  
25 4% 83%  
26 7% 80%  
27 15% 72% Median
28 14% 58%  
29 8% 44%  
30 7% 36%  
31 3% 28%  
32 9% 25%  
33 5% 16%  
34 4% 11%  
35 3% 7% Last Result
36 0.6% 4%  
37 1.0% 3%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations