Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 25–29 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.3% 25.3–29.5% 24.8–30.1% 24.3–30.6% 23.4–31.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.4% 21.6–25.5% 21.0–26.1% 20.6–26.6% 19.7–27.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.7% 12.3–15.4% 11.8–15.9% 11.5–16.4% 10.8–17.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.9% 10.5–13.5% 10.2–14.0% 9.8–14.4% 9.2–15.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.2–8.6% 5.9–9.0% 5.6–9.3% 5.2–10.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.8% 3.9–5.9% 3.7–6.2% 3.5–6.5% 3.1–7.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.7% 3.8–5.8% 3.6–6.1% 3.4–6.4% 3.0–7.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 1.6% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.7% 0.7–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 44–53 44–54 43–55 40–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 39–46 38–47 37–48 35–50
Senterpartiet 19 24 21–28 20–29 20–29 18–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–24 17–25 17–26 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 2–11 2–12 2–13
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 0.6% 99.4%  
42 1.2% 98.8%  
43 3% 98%  
44 5% 95%  
45 4% 90% Last Result
46 7% 86%  
47 11% 79%  
48 17% 68%  
49 13% 51% Median
50 9% 37%  
51 13% 28%  
52 4% 15%  
53 5% 11%  
54 3% 6%  
55 1.1% 3%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.8%  
36 1.3% 99.3%  
37 1.2% 98%  
38 4% 97%  
39 6% 93%  
40 11% 87%  
41 21% 76%  
42 13% 56% Median
43 15% 42%  
44 10% 27%  
45 5% 17%  
46 5% 11%  
47 2% 6%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
50 0.5% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.5% 100%  
19 1.3% 99.5% Last Result
20 4% 98%  
21 5% 94%  
22 10% 89%  
23 13% 79%  
24 18% 66% Median
25 18% 49%  
26 12% 31%  
27 9% 19%  
28 5% 10%  
29 3% 5%  
30 0.9% 2%  
31 0.8% 1.3%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 1.1% 99.7%  
17 4% 98.5%  
18 7% 94%  
19 12% 87%  
20 12% 76%  
21 21% 64% Median
22 17% 43%  
23 10% 26%  
24 7% 15%  
25 5% 8%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 1.1% 99.7%  
10 8% 98.6%  
11 11% 91% Last Result
12 21% 80%  
13 23% 58% Median
14 17% 35%  
15 12% 19%  
16 5% 7%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.6% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100% Last Result
2 13% 99.5%  
3 2% 87%  
4 0.1% 85%  
5 0% 85%  
6 0% 85%  
7 8% 85%  
8 27% 77% Median
9 20% 50%  
10 21% 30%  
11 6% 9%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 16% 99.8%  
3 0% 83%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0% 83%  
7 13% 83%  
8 27% 70% Median
9 21% 43%  
10 15% 22%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 21% 98%  
2 18% 78%  
3 33% 59% Median
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 0% 27%  
7 15% 27%  
8 10% 12% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 34% 40%  
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 98 100% 94–103 92–105 91–107 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 95 99.7% 90–100 89–101 87–103 85–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 91 96% 86–96 85–98 83–99 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 75% 83–93 81–94 80–95 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 73% 82–93 81–94 80–95 77–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 83 27% 76–87 75–88 74–89 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 8% 75–84 74–85 72–87 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 78 7% 73–83 72–85 70–86 68–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 74 0.3% 69–79 68–80 66–82 64–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 65–75 64–76 63–79 60–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 66–75 64–76 63–79 60–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 66–75 64–76 64–78 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 63–71 61–72 61–74 58–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 51–59 50–60 49–61 48–64
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 52 0% 48–57 47–59 45–61 44–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 25–32 24–34 23–36 21–38

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 1.1% 99.5%  
91 2% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 4% 94%  
94 6% 91%  
95 5% 84%  
96 7% 80%  
97 12% 72% Median
98 18% 60%  
99 7% 42%  
100 8% 35%  
101 9% 27%  
102 4% 18%  
103 7% 14%  
104 2% 8%  
105 1.2% 6%  
106 1.1% 5%  
107 2% 3% Last Result
108 0.5% 1.0%  
109 0.1% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.4%  
111 0.2% 0.3%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.7% Majority
86 2% 99.2%  
87 0.8% 98%  
88 1.1% 97%  
89 3% 96%  
90 5% 93%  
91 9% 88%  
92 5% 79%  
93 6% 74%  
94 6% 68%  
95 13% 62% Median
96 14% 49%  
97 9% 34%  
98 7% 26%  
99 5% 19%  
100 6% 14%  
101 4% 8%  
102 1.1% 4%  
103 1.3% 3%  
104 0.7% 2%  
105 0.6% 0.9%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.7% 99.5%  
83 2% 98.8%  
84 1.3% 97%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 5% 93%  
87 5% 88%  
88 11% 84% Last Result
89 5% 73%  
90 11% 68% Median
91 17% 57%  
92 8% 40%  
93 6% 32%  
94 6% 26%  
95 6% 20%  
96 6% 14%  
97 2% 8%  
98 2% 5%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.7% 2%  
101 0.2% 0.8%  
102 0.4% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.7% 99.4%  
80 2% 98.7% Last Result
81 3% 97%  
82 3% 94%  
83 8% 91%  
84 8% 83%  
85 6% 75% Majority
86 10% 69%  
87 7% 59% Median
88 15% 52%  
89 7% 37%  
90 7% 29%  
91 5% 22%  
92 6% 17%  
93 5% 11%  
94 3% 6%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 1.3% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.0%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.3% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.7%  
77 0.3% 99.5%  
78 0.4% 99.2%  
79 0.4% 98.8%  
80 1.2% 98% Last Result
81 2% 97%  
82 6% 95%  
83 8% 89%  
84 8% 81%  
85 9% 73% Majority
86 15% 63%  
87 5% 49% Median
88 5% 44%  
89 9% 39%  
90 7% 30%  
91 7% 23%  
92 5% 16%  
93 6% 11%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.3% 3%  
96 0.7% 1.5%  
97 0.4% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 0.7% 99.2%  
74 1.3% 98.5%  
75 2% 97%  
76 6% 95%  
77 5% 89%  
78 7% 84%  
79 7% 77%  
80 9% 70%  
81 5% 61% Median
82 5% 56%  
83 15% 51%  
84 9% 37%  
85 8% 27% Majority
86 8% 19%  
87 6% 11%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.2% 3% Last Result
90 0.4% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.2%  
92 0.3% 0.8%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.3% 0.3%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 2% 99.0%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 96%  
75 6% 92%  
76 10% 87%  
77 6% 77%  
78 12% 71%  
79 12% 58% Last Result, Median
80 7% 47%  
81 8% 40%  
82 7% 32%  
83 11% 25%  
84 5% 13%  
85 3% 8% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.9%  
90 0.2% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 0.7% 99.3%  
70 1.5% 98.6%  
71 0.8% 97%  
72 3% 96%  
73 5% 93%  
74 2% 88%  
75 12% 86%  
76 7% 73%  
77 8% 66% Last Result, Median
78 14% 58%  
79 11% 44%  
80 6% 33%  
81 8% 28%  
82 8% 20%  
83 3% 11%  
84 2% 9%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 1.4% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.2%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 99.7%  
65 0.7% 99.1%  
66 1.3% 98%  
67 1.1% 97%  
68 4% 96%  
69 6% 92%  
70 5% 86%  
71 7% 81%  
72 9% 74%  
73 14% 66% Median
74 13% 51%  
75 6% 38%  
76 6% 32%  
77 5% 26%  
78 9% 21%  
79 5% 12%  
80 3% 7%  
81 1.1% 4%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 0.5% 99.3%  
62 0.9% 98.9%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 5% 94%  
66 4% 89%  
67 8% 85%  
68 9% 77%  
69 12% 68%  
70 19% 56% Median
71 13% 37%  
72 4% 25% Last Result
73 7% 21%  
74 2% 14%  
75 5% 12%  
76 3% 7%  
77 1.0% 4%  
78 0.3% 3%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.3% 99.5%  
62 0.7% 99.2%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 3% 95%  
66 6% 92%  
67 7% 87%  
68 7% 80%  
69 9% 72%  
70 17% 63% Median
71 17% 47%  
72 8% 30%  
73 6% 23%  
74 3% 17%  
75 6% 14%  
76 4% 8%  
77 1.1% 4%  
78 0.8% 3%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 1.3% 2% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.7% 99.3%  
63 1.0% 98.6%  
64 3% 98%  
65 3% 95%  
66 5% 92%  
67 8% 87%  
68 12% 79%  
69 11% 67% Median
70 16% 56%  
71 6% 40%  
72 10% 34%  
73 8% 24%  
74 4% 17%  
75 4% 13%  
76 4% 9% Last Result
77 2% 5%  
78 0.9% 3%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.9%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.5% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.4%  
60 0.8% 98.6%  
61 3% 98%  
62 2% 95%  
63 11% 92%  
64 10% 81%  
65 7% 72%  
66 16% 64% Median
67 11% 48%  
68 7% 37% Last Result
69 12% 30%  
70 7% 18%  
71 3% 11%  
72 3% 8%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.3% 3%  
75 0.8% 1.5%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.8% 99.5%  
49 2% 98.8%  
50 3% 97%  
51 5% 94%  
52 6% 89%  
53 16% 83%  
54 12% 67%  
55 10% 55% Median
56 15% 45%  
57 9% 30%  
58 8% 21%  
59 6% 13%  
60 3% 7% Last Result
61 2% 4%  
62 0.5% 2%  
63 0.9% 1.4%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.6% 99.6%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 1.1% 97%  
47 4% 96%  
48 7% 92%  
49 5% 85%  
50 8% 81%  
51 10% 72%  
52 13% 63% Median
53 11% 50%  
54 5% 38%  
55 5% 33%  
56 11% 28%  
57 7% 17%  
58 3% 9%  
59 3% 6%  
60 1.1% 4%  
61 2% 3% Last Result
62 0.4% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.7%  
22 1.4% 99.4%  
23 2% 98%  
24 5% 96%  
25 10% 91%  
26 7% 81%  
27 16% 74% Median
28 10% 59%  
29 13% 49%  
30 10% 36%  
31 10% 26%  
32 6% 16%  
33 3% 9%  
34 2% 6%  
35 2% 4% Last Result
36 1.2% 3%  
37 0.8% 1.3%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations