Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 26 May–1 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.9% 23.8–28.1% 23.2–28.7% 22.7–29.3% 21.8–30.3%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.4% 21.4–25.6% 20.9–26.2% 20.4–26.7% 19.5–27.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.6% 13.0–16.4% 12.5–17.0% 12.2–17.4% 11.4–18.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.0% 10.5–13.7% 10.1–14.2% 9.8–14.6% 9.1–15.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.9% 5.8–8.3% 5.5–8.7% 5.3–9.1% 4.8–9.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.6% 4.6–6.9% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.6% 3.7–8.3%
Rødt 2.4% 4.8% 3.9–6.0% 3.6–6.3% 3.4–6.6% 3.0–7.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.1% 2.0–5.7%
Venstre 4.4% 2.5% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–3.9% 1.3–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 41–51 40–52 39–52 37–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 38–46 37–46 36–47 34–49
Senterpartiet 19 26 22–32 21–32 21–32 19–33
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 18–24 17–25 17–26 15–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–15 9–16 9–16 8–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–12 7–13 7–14 2–14
Rødt 1 9 2–10 2–11 2–11 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 0.6% 99.3%  
39 1.4% 98.7%  
40 5% 97%  
41 8% 92%  
42 4% 84%  
43 11% 80%  
44 7% 70%  
45 16% 63% Last Result, Median
46 10% 47%  
47 13% 38%  
48 3% 25%  
49 7% 22%  
50 3% 15%  
51 3% 11%  
52 7% 8%  
53 0.4% 1.2%  
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 1.3% 99.8%  
35 0.5% 98%  
36 1.1% 98%  
37 2% 97%  
38 5% 95%  
39 11% 90%  
40 17% 79%  
41 15% 62% Median
42 8% 48%  
43 8% 40%  
44 6% 32%  
45 10% 26%  
46 12% 16%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.6% 2%  
49 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.4%  
51 0% 0.3%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
20 1.4% 99.3%  
21 4% 98%  
22 6% 94%  
23 3% 89%  
24 9% 85%  
25 19% 76%  
26 8% 57% Median
27 14% 49%  
28 11% 35%  
29 6% 24%  
30 4% 18%  
31 3% 13%  
32 9% 11%  
33 0.9% 1.3%  
34 0.2% 0.5%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 0.8% 99.4%  
17 4% 98.6%  
18 13% 94%  
19 16% 81%  
20 23% 65% Median
21 9% 42%  
22 12% 33%  
23 5% 21%  
24 8% 16%  
25 4% 8%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.5% 99.8%  
9 6% 99.3%  
10 16% 94%  
11 16% 77% Last Result
12 23% 61% Median
13 20% 39%  
14 8% 19%  
15 5% 11%  
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 2% 100%  
3 0.2% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 3% 98%  
8 12% 95%  
9 21% 82%  
10 27% 61% Median
11 23% 35%  
12 6% 12%  
13 3% 6%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.2% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100% Last Result
2 17% 99.5%  
3 0% 82%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 19% 82%  
8 12% 63%  
9 24% 50% Median
10 17% 27%  
11 7% 9%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 29% 98%  
2 15% 69%  
3 27% 54% Median
4 0% 27%  
5 0% 27%  
6 0% 27%  
7 14% 27%  
8 9% 13% Last Result
9 3% 3%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 37% 87% Median
2 47% 49%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.5% 2%  
7 1.3% 2%  
8 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 98 99.9% 92–103 91–104 90–105 88–107
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 99 100% 93–101 91–103 89–104 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 93 98.8% 88–100 86–100 86–101 84–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 87% 84–95 83–97 81–98 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 82% 83–93 81–94 80–95 78–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 81 18% 76–86 75–88 74–89 72–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 19% 76–88 74–89 73–89 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 11% 75–85 73–87 72–87 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0% 66–78 65–78 64–80 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 71 0.1% 66–77 65–78 64–79 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 63–72 62–74 61–75 59–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 62–73 60–74 60–75 58–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 66 0% 60–71 59–72 59–73 56–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 50–59 49–60 47–60 45–62
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 50 0% 46–56 44–57 43–59 42–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 27–36 26–36 26–39 23–42

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.7%  
88 0.6% 99.5%  
89 0.9% 98.9%  
90 0.8% 98%  
91 4% 97%  
92 6% 93%  
93 3% 87%  
94 3% 84%  
95 11% 81%  
96 3% 70%  
97 13% 67%  
98 10% 54% Median
99 6% 44%  
100 4% 37%  
101 11% 33%  
102 12% 22%  
103 3% 10%  
104 4% 7%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.8% 2%  
107 0.4% 0.8%  
108 0.1% 0.4%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 3% 99.5%  
90 0.7% 97%  
91 1.1% 96%  
92 4% 95%  
93 8% 91%  
94 7% 83%  
95 3% 76% Median
96 3% 73%  
97 12% 70%  
98 6% 58%  
99 25% 52%  
100 12% 27%  
101 6% 15%  
102 2% 10%  
103 4% 8%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
108 0.3% 0.8%  
109 0.4% 0.5%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.6%  
84 0.7% 99.5%  
85 0.9% 98.8% Majority
86 3% 98%  
87 3% 95%  
88 2% 92% Last Result
89 5% 90%  
90 4% 85%  
91 7% 81%  
92 5% 74% Median
93 22% 69%  
94 2% 47%  
95 17% 45%  
96 5% 28%  
97 4% 23%  
98 7% 19%  
99 1.0% 12%  
100 8% 11%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.6% 1.4%  
103 0.1% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.6%  
105 0.1% 0.5%  
106 0.3% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
81 2% 99.0%  
82 2% 97%  
83 4% 95%  
84 4% 91%  
85 3% 87% Majority
86 3% 84%  
87 3% 81%  
88 5% 78%  
89 4% 74% Median
90 18% 70%  
91 7% 52%  
92 19% 45%  
93 11% 27%  
94 3% 16%  
95 5% 13%  
96 2% 8%  
97 2% 6%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.7% 1.2%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.1% 99.7%  
78 0.4% 99.6%  
79 0.9% 99.2%  
80 2% 98% Last Result
81 2% 97%  
82 2% 94%  
83 5% 92%  
84 5% 87%  
85 4% 82% Majority
86 18% 77%  
87 4% 59%  
88 10% 55% Median
89 5% 45%  
90 9% 40%  
91 8% 31%  
92 12% 24%  
93 2% 11%  
94 4% 9%  
95 3% 4%  
96 0.4% 1.5%  
97 0.6% 1.0%  
98 0.2% 0.5%  
99 0% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.8%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.6% 99.5%  
73 0.4% 99.0%  
74 3% 98.5%  
75 4% 96%  
76 2% 91%  
77 12% 89%  
78 8% 76%  
79 9% 69% Median
80 5% 60%  
81 10% 55%  
82 4% 45%  
83 18% 41%  
84 4% 23%  
85 5% 18% Majority
86 5% 13%  
87 2% 8%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 3% Last Result
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.1% 99.4%  
73 2% 99.3%  
74 5% 97%  
75 2% 93%  
76 3% 91%  
77 2% 88% Last Result
78 7% 86%  
79 2% 80%  
80 10% 78% Median
81 13% 68%  
82 17% 54%  
83 12% 37%  
84 7% 25%  
85 2% 19% Majority
86 5% 16%  
87 1.5% 12%  
88 2% 10%  
89 6% 8%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.1%  
92 0.6% 0.7%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.6%  
72 2% 98.9%  
73 3% 97%  
74 4% 94%  
75 3% 90%  
76 5% 87%  
77 2% 83%  
78 6% 80%  
79 13% 74% Last Result, Median
80 5% 61%  
81 13% 56%  
82 14% 42%  
83 5% 29%  
84 12% 23%  
85 4% 11% Majority
86 1.4% 8%  
87 4% 6%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.2%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.9% 99.9%  
63 1.4% 98.9%  
64 0.8% 98%  
65 4% 97%  
66 3% 92%  
67 4% 89%  
68 5% 86%  
69 4% 80%  
70 12% 76% Median
71 4% 64%  
72 12% 60%  
73 21% 48%  
74 6% 26%  
75 5% 20%  
76 5% 16% Last Result
77 1.0% 11%  
78 6% 10%  
79 0.3% 4%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.9% 1.1%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 0.8% 99.2%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 97%  
66 3% 93%  
67 12% 90%  
68 11% 78%  
69 4% 67% Median
70 6% 63%  
71 10% 56%  
72 13% 46%  
73 3% 33%  
74 11% 30%  
75 3% 19%  
76 3% 16%  
77 6% 13%  
78 4% 7%  
79 0.8% 3%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.1%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 2% 99.4%  
61 0.7% 98%  
62 6% 97%  
63 2% 91%  
64 7% 89%  
65 3% 82%  
66 7% 79%  
67 16% 72% Median
68 6% 56% Last Result
69 6% 50%  
70 7% 44%  
71 15% 37%  
72 13% 22%  
73 4% 9%  
74 1.2% 5%  
75 3% 4%  
76 0.4% 0.9%  
77 0.1% 0.6%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.6%  
58 0.9% 99.6%  
59 0.4% 98.7%  
60 4% 98%  
61 1.3% 94%  
62 4% 93%  
63 2% 88%  
64 6% 86%  
65 8% 80%  
66 14% 72% Median
67 6% 58%  
68 6% 52%  
69 17% 45%  
70 6% 29%  
71 2% 23%  
72 11% 21%  
73 2% 11%  
74 6% 9%  
75 1.0% 3%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.2% 0.8%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 0.8% 99.3%  
58 0.4% 98.5%  
59 5% 98%  
60 4% 93%  
61 3% 89%  
62 5% 86%  
63 8% 81%  
64 5% 73%  
65 12% 68% Median
66 9% 56%  
67 11% 47%  
68 2% 36%  
69 13% 34%  
70 2% 20%  
71 10% 19%  
72 5% 9% Last Result
73 2% 4%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.7%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.5%  
46 0.8% 99.3%  
47 2% 98%  
48 1.0% 96%  
49 2% 95%  
50 13% 93%  
51 10% 80%  
52 13% 70%  
53 5% 57% Median
54 12% 53%  
55 5% 40%  
56 8% 36%  
57 4% 28%  
58 8% 23%  
59 9% 16%  
60 5% 7% Last Result
61 0.6% 1.3%  
62 0.2% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.4%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 4% 99.2%  
44 2% 96%  
45 2% 93%  
46 3% 91%  
47 12% 88%  
48 12% 76%  
49 4% 64% Median
50 17% 60%  
51 6% 43%  
52 11% 37%  
53 4% 26%  
54 3% 22%  
55 7% 19%  
56 4% 11%  
57 3% 8%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.2% 3%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.8%  
24 0.7% 99.3%  
25 1.0% 98.7%  
26 7% 98%  
27 3% 90%  
28 14% 87%  
29 5% 73%  
30 10% 68% Median
31 11% 58%  
32 4% 47%  
33 6% 43%  
34 21% 37%  
35 2% 16% Last Result
36 9% 14%  
37 2% 5%  
38 0.9% 3%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.3% 1.1%  
41 0.2% 0.8%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations