Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 2–3 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.1% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.4% 21.5–26.8% 20.7–27.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.5% 21.8–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.2% 20.1–27.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.8–16.5% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.3% 11.0–13.7% 10.7–14.1% 10.4–14.5% 9.8–15.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.5%
Rødt 2.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 43 40–47 38–48 37–48 36–50
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 40–46 40–47 38–47 36–50
Senterpartiet 19 26 23–30 23–31 22–32 20–34
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 19–25 18–25 18–26 17–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–14 11–15 10–16 9–17
Rødt 1 9 7–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–10 3–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–6 1–7 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.4% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.6%  
37 2% 98.9%  
38 3% 97%  
39 2% 94%  
40 6% 92%  
41 14% 86%  
42 11% 72%  
43 24% 60% Median
44 12% 37%  
45 5% 25% Last Result
46 8% 20%  
47 4% 12%  
48 5% 7%  
49 0.3% 2%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.4%  
38 2% 99.0%  
39 2% 97%  
40 17% 95%  
41 14% 78%  
42 23% 64% Median
43 16% 41%  
44 7% 25%  
45 5% 18%  
46 7% 13%  
47 4% 6%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 0.3% 2% Last Result
50 1.1% 1.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 1.1% 99.4%  
22 3% 98%  
23 6% 96%  
24 5% 90%  
25 19% 85%  
26 21% 66% Median
27 13% 45%  
28 16% 32%  
29 6% 17%  
30 3% 10%  
31 4% 8%  
32 1.4% 3%  
33 1.4% 2%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.7%  
18 4% 98.9%  
19 6% 95%  
20 5% 89%  
21 13% 84%  
22 24% 71% Median
23 18% 47%  
24 14% 29%  
25 12% 15%  
26 2% 3%  
27 1.2% 2% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.3%  
11 17% 96% Last Result
12 15% 79%  
13 18% 64% Median
14 37% 46%  
15 4% 8%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.9% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 5% 100%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 17% 95%  
8 20% 78%  
9 30% 58% Median
10 18% 28%  
11 8% 9%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 1.4% 99.5%  
3 24% 98%  
4 0% 74%  
5 0% 74%  
6 0.2% 74%  
7 15% 73%  
8 28% 59% Last Result, Median
9 14% 31%  
10 15% 17%  
11 1.1% 1.4%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 16% 100% Last Result
2 38% 84% Median
3 7% 46%  
4 0% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 2% 39%  
7 5% 37%  
8 27% 32%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.6% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 27% 99.6%  
2 66% 72% Median
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 2% 6%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 96–105 95–106 94–108 92–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 94 99.7% 90–99 89–101 87–103 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 93 99.3% 88–98 87–100 86–102 84–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 91 95% 86–95 84–97 83–97 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 86 60% 81–91 80–93 79–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 23% 78–87 77–87 75–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 80 15% 75–86 74–88 73–88 71–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 78 5% 74–83 72–85 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 0.9% 71–81 70–82 70–83 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 75 0.3% 70–79 68–80 66–82 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 65–73 64–74 62–76 61–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 67 0% 63–72 61–74 60–75 58–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 61–69 59–71 58–73 55–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 51–59 51–61 50–61 49–64
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 52 0% 47–56 46–57 46–59 44–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 31–40 30–42 29–44 27–45

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.9% 99.8%  
93 1.0% 98.9%  
94 2% 98%  
95 3% 96%  
96 5% 94%  
97 6% 89%  
98 4% 83%  
99 9% 79%  
100 11% 70%  
101 10% 59% Median
102 21% 49%  
103 9% 28%  
104 6% 19%  
105 8% 13%  
106 2% 5%  
107 0.8% 4% Last Result
108 1.1% 3%  
109 0.4% 2%  
110 0.3% 1.5%  
111 1.1% 1.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.6% 99.7% Majority
86 0.6% 99.2%  
87 1.2% 98.6%  
88 0.8% 97%  
89 5% 97%  
90 4% 92%  
91 7% 88%  
92 9% 81% Median
93 11% 73%  
94 12% 62%  
95 12% 50%  
96 12% 37%  
97 4% 26%  
98 6% 21%  
99 6% 15%  
100 4% 9%  
101 2% 6%  
102 0.7% 4%  
103 2% 3%  
104 1.0% 1.4%  
105 0.4% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.3% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.7%  
84 0.3% 99.6%  
85 1.0% 99.3% Majority
86 3% 98%  
87 1.2% 95%  
88 5% 94% Last Result
89 6% 89%  
90 4% 82%  
91 4% 78% Median
92 18% 74%  
93 8% 56%  
94 19% 47%  
95 9% 28%  
96 3% 19%  
97 2% 16%  
98 4% 14%  
99 3% 10%  
100 3% 6%  
101 0.7% 3%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.4% 1.0%  
104 0.4% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.6%  
82 1.0% 99.2%  
83 1.0% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 8% 93%  
87 8% 85%  
88 11% 76%  
89 4% 66%  
90 10% 61% Median
91 15% 51%  
92 8% 36%  
93 6% 28%  
94 7% 22%  
95 7% 15%  
96 2% 8%  
97 4% 6%  
98 1.5% 2%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.7%  
78 0.7% 99.3%  
79 1.3% 98.6%  
80 3% 97% Last Result
81 5% 94%  
82 2% 89%  
83 9% 87% Median
84 18% 78%  
85 6% 60% Majority
86 11% 54%  
87 10% 43%  
88 6% 33%  
89 9% 27%  
90 5% 18%  
91 5% 13%  
92 2% 8%  
93 2% 6%  
94 1.1% 4%  
95 0.9% 2%  
96 1.3% 1.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.6%  
74 1.0% 99.1%  
75 2% 98%  
76 1.3% 96%  
77 4% 95%  
78 7% 91%  
79 12% 84% Last Result
80 5% 72%  
81 8% 67% Median
82 25% 59%  
83 5% 35%  
84 7% 30%  
85 7% 23% Majority
86 3% 16%  
87 8% 13%  
88 2% 5%  
89 0.9% 3%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.3% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.6%  
71 0.1% 99.5%  
72 0.8% 99.4%  
73 3% 98.6%  
74 4% 95%  
75 5% 92%  
76 3% 87%  
77 7% 84% Last Result
78 12% 77% Median
79 10% 64%  
80 16% 54%  
81 5% 38%  
82 6% 33%  
83 6% 28%  
84 7% 22%  
85 5% 15% Majority
86 2% 10%  
87 3% 8%  
88 3% 5%  
89 0.2% 2%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.4% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.2% 99.6%  
71 1.5% 99.4%  
72 4% 98%  
73 2% 94%  
74 7% 92%  
75 7% 85%  
76 6% 78%  
77 8% 71% Median
78 15% 64%  
79 10% 49%  
80 4% 39%  
81 11% 34%  
82 8% 24%  
83 8% 15%  
84 2% 7%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.0% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.5%  
69 1.2% 98.8%  
70 4% 98%  
71 4% 94%  
72 6% 89%  
73 9% 83%  
74 7% 75%  
75 7% 68%  
76 21% 61% Last Result, Median
77 6% 39%  
78 14% 33%  
79 5% 19%  
80 4% 14%  
81 3% 10%  
82 4% 7%  
83 1.2% 3%  
84 1.4% 2%  
85 0.6% 0.9% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 1.0% 99.5%  
66 2% 98.6%  
67 0.7% 97%  
68 2% 96%  
69 4% 94%  
70 6% 91%  
71 6% 85%  
72 4% 79%  
73 12% 74%  
74 12% 63%  
75 12% 50% Median
76 11% 38%  
77 9% 27%  
78 6% 19%  
79 4% 12%  
80 5% 8%  
81 0.8% 3%  
82 1.2% 3%  
83 0.6% 1.4%  
84 0.6% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 2% 99.3%  
63 1.1% 97%  
64 2% 96%  
65 9% 94%  
66 8% 86%  
67 7% 77%  
68 26% 70% Last Result, Median
69 6% 45%  
70 9% 38%  
71 5% 30%  
72 6% 25%  
73 12% 19%  
74 3% 7%  
75 1.0% 4%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.3% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.6%  
79 0.4% 0.4%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 1.1% 99.5%  
59 0.1% 98%  
60 3% 98%  
61 2% 95%  
62 3% 93%  
63 3% 91%  
64 4% 88%  
65 3% 84%  
66 16% 80%  
67 22% 64% Median
68 9% 42%  
69 5% 33%  
70 14% 29%  
71 5% 15%  
72 3% 10%  
73 2% 7%  
74 1.1% 5%  
75 3% 4%  
76 0.2% 0.8%  
77 0.5% 0.6%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.4%  
57 1.1% 99.2%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 96%  
60 3% 93%  
61 5% 91%  
62 4% 86%  
63 3% 82%  
64 5% 78%  
65 31% 73% Median
66 10% 42%  
67 5% 33%  
68 13% 27%  
69 5% 14%  
70 0.7% 9%  
71 3% 8%  
72 1.0% 5% Last Result
73 3% 4%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.5% 99.5%  
50 2% 99.0%  
51 9% 97%  
52 6% 88%  
53 9% 81%  
54 9% 73%  
55 12% 64% Median
56 20% 52%  
57 14% 32%  
58 3% 18%  
59 6% 15%  
60 3% 9% Last Result
61 4% 6%  
62 0.5% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.5%  
64 0.9% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 1.4% 99.6%  
45 0.6% 98%  
46 5% 98%  
47 4% 92%  
48 4% 88%  
49 3% 84%  
50 7% 82%  
51 17% 75%  
52 12% 58%  
53 14% 46% Median
54 13% 32%  
55 4% 19%  
56 5% 15%  
57 6% 10%  
58 2% 4%  
59 0.6% 3%  
60 0.3% 2%  
61 1.5% 2% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 1.4% 99.3%  
29 0.6% 98%  
30 5% 97%  
31 7% 92%  
32 5% 85%  
33 4% 79%  
34 11% 75%  
35 12% 64% Last Result
36 11% 51% Median
37 17% 41%  
38 6% 23%  
39 5% 17%  
40 4% 12%  
41 2% 7%  
42 2% 6%  
43 0.8% 4%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations