Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 2–4 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.2% 22.5–26.0% 22.0–26.5% 21.6–26.9% 20.8–27.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.5% 21.8–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.2% 20.1–27.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.5% 13.1–16.0% 12.7–16.4% 12.4–16.8% 11.8–17.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.8–14.2% 10.5–14.6% 9.9–15.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Rødt 2.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Venstre 4.4% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 44 40–46 40–46 38–47 36–49
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 40–44 40–46 39–47 36–50
Senterpartiet 19 27 23–29 22–29 21–30 21–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 20–25 20–25 19–25 17–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–14 10–15 9–15
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 2–13
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–6 1–7 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.2%  
38 1.2% 98.6%  
39 2% 97%  
40 9% 95%  
41 9% 86%  
42 10% 77%  
43 15% 67%  
44 26% 52% Median
45 10% 25% Last Result
46 11% 15%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.7%  
37 0.5% 99.5%  
38 1.1% 99.0%  
39 2% 98%  
40 19% 96%  
41 30% 77% Median
42 13% 47%  
43 18% 34%  
44 8% 16%  
45 3% 8%  
46 2% 5%  
47 1.2% 3%  
48 0.4% 2%  
49 0.3% 1.2% Last Result
50 0.5% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.6%  
22 2% 96%  
23 5% 94%  
24 7% 89%  
25 14% 82%  
26 13% 68%  
27 33% 55% Median
28 10% 23%  
29 8% 12%  
30 3% 4%  
31 1.0% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 1.0% 99.3%  
19 2% 98%  
20 14% 96%  
21 16% 83%  
22 27% 66% Median
23 14% 39%  
24 15% 25%  
25 8% 10%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 8% 98%  
11 23% 90% Last Result
12 19% 67% Median
13 37% 48%  
14 8% 11%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 1.2% 99.9%  
3 0.5% 98.7%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0.2% 98%  
7 3% 98%  
8 26% 95%  
9 29% 69% Median
10 19% 41%  
11 17% 22%  
12 3% 5%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 13% 99.9%  
3 0% 87%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0.2% 87%  
7 13% 87%  
8 45% 74% Median
9 12% 28%  
10 13% 16%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 9% 99.7%  
2 10% 91%  
3 44% 81% Median
4 0% 37%  
5 0% 37%  
6 1.0% 37%  
7 24% 36%  
8 8% 12% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 14% 99.7%  
2 79% 85% Median
3 1.0% 7%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 1.1% 6%  
7 3% 5%  
8 1.2% 1.5% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 98 100% 94–102 93–103 92–104 90–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 97 100% 92–102 91–103 90–104 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 93 99.8% 90–98 88–100 87–101 86–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 92% 85–95 83–95 82–96 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 84% 83–92 82–94 80–95 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 81 19% 78–86 76–88 75–89 74–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 81 16% 77–86 75–87 74–89 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 9% 76–84 74–85 72–87 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0.1% 68–77 67–78 66–80 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 72 0% 67–77 66–78 65–79 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 64–72 63–73 61–74 61–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 64–72 63–73 61–74 59–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 66 0% 62–69 61–71 59–71 56–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 51–57 50–58 50–59 48–62
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 46–53 45–55 44–56 41–58
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 29–37 28–38 27–39 26–41

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.4% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.5%  
91 0.3% 99.1%  
92 2% 98.8%  
93 3% 97%  
94 5% 94%  
95 8% 89%  
96 6% 81%  
97 13% 75%  
98 21% 63% Median
99 12% 41%  
100 8% 30%  
101 8% 22%  
102 6% 13%  
103 4% 7%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.5% 1.5%  
106 0.6% 1.0%  
107 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 1.1% 99.4%  
90 2% 98%  
91 2% 96%  
92 4% 94%  
93 5% 90%  
94 7% 85%  
95 7% 79%  
96 9% 72%  
97 16% 63% Median
98 24% 47%  
99 3% 23%  
100 3% 20%  
101 5% 17%  
102 6% 12%  
103 1.4% 6%  
104 2% 4%  
105 1.1% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.9%  
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8% Majority
86 1.1% 99.6%  
87 2% 98%  
88 2% 97% Last Result
89 3% 94%  
90 9% 91%  
91 10% 82%  
92 5% 72% Median
93 20% 68%  
94 5% 48%  
95 10% 43%  
96 10% 33%  
97 7% 24%  
98 9% 17%  
99 2% 7%  
100 1.3% 5%  
101 3% 4%  
102 0.3% 1.3%  
103 0.5% 1.0%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
81 1.2% 99.8%  
82 3% 98.5%  
83 1.3% 96%  
84 3% 95%  
85 4% 92% Majority
86 2% 88%  
87 7% 86%  
88 17% 80%  
89 13% 63% Median
90 22% 50%  
91 6% 28%  
92 5% 23%  
93 2% 18%  
94 4% 16%  
95 7% 12%  
96 3% 4%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.5% 0.9%  
99 0.1% 0.4%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 3% 99.5% Last Result
81 1.5% 97%  
82 4% 95%  
83 5% 91%  
84 2% 86%  
85 4% 84% Majority
86 10% 80%  
87 8% 70%  
88 14% 62% Median
89 25% 48%  
90 8% 23%  
91 5% 16%  
92 2% 11%  
93 3% 9%  
94 3% 6%  
95 1.2% 3%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.5% 1.1%  
98 0.4% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.9% 99.6%  
75 2% 98.7%  
76 2% 97%  
77 3% 95% Last Result
78 10% 92%  
79 8% 82%  
80 21% 74% Median
81 5% 53%  
82 6% 48%  
83 10% 43%  
84 14% 33%  
85 4% 19% Majority
86 8% 16%  
87 2% 8%  
88 1.4% 6%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.5% 1.1%  
92 0.5% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.4%  
73 1.0% 98.9%  
74 1.2% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 3% 94%  
77 2% 91%  
78 5% 89%  
79 8% 84%  
80 25% 77% Median
81 14% 52%  
82 8% 38%  
83 10% 30%  
84 4% 20%  
85 2% 16% Majority
86 5% 14%  
87 4% 9%  
88 1.5% 5%  
89 3% 3% Last Result
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 3% 99.8%  
73 1.1% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 2% 92%  
77 5% 89%  
78 10% 85%  
79 10% 75% Last Result
80 11% 65% Median
81 28% 54%  
82 4% 26%  
83 6% 21%  
84 6% 15%  
85 4% 9% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 1.3% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.9%  
90 0.4% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.8% 99.8%  
66 2% 98.9%  
67 5% 97%  
68 5% 92%  
69 4% 87%  
70 9% 84%  
71 22% 75% Median
72 9% 53%  
73 5% 44%  
74 6% 38%  
75 14% 32%  
76 6% 18% Last Result
77 4% 12%  
78 4% 8%  
79 0.9% 4%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.7% 1.5%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 1.1% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 1.4% 96%  
67 6% 94%  
68 5% 88%  
69 3% 83%  
70 3% 80%  
71 24% 77% Median
72 16% 53%  
73 9% 37%  
74 7% 28%  
75 7% 21%  
76 5% 15%  
77 4% 10%  
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 3% 99.9%  
62 0.8% 97%  
63 3% 96%  
64 4% 93%  
65 4% 89%  
66 5% 85%  
67 13% 80%  
68 30% 67% Last Result, Median
69 13% 37%  
70 8% 24%  
71 5% 16%  
72 3% 11%  
73 4% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.0% 2%  
76 0.9% 1.4%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.6% 99.6%  
60 1.0% 99.0%  
61 0.9% 98%  
62 1.5% 97%  
63 4% 96%  
64 10% 92%  
65 11% 82%  
66 7% 71%  
67 7% 64%  
68 20% 57% Median
69 9% 37%  
70 14% 28%  
71 4% 14%  
72 5% 10%  
73 2% 5%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.9% 1.3%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.4%  
58 1.3% 98.9%  
59 0.8% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 4% 95%  
62 10% 92%  
63 12% 82%  
64 7% 69%  
65 5% 62%  
66 21% 57% Median
67 10% 36%  
68 14% 26%  
69 4% 12%  
70 3% 8%  
71 3% 5%  
72 0.9% 2% Last Result
73 0.7% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 1.2% 99.4%  
50 4% 98%  
51 11% 95%  
52 10% 84%  
53 6% 74% Median
54 32% 68%  
55 11% 36%  
56 11% 24%  
57 7% 13%  
58 2% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.9% 2% Last Result
61 0.4% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.6%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.5% 100%  
42 0.8% 99.5%  
43 1.1% 98.7%  
44 1.2% 98%  
45 5% 96%  
46 6% 91%  
47 5% 85%  
48 8% 80%  
49 23% 72% Median
50 15% 49%  
51 6% 34%  
52 11% 28%  
53 7% 16%  
54 3% 9%  
55 4% 7%  
56 1.1% 3%  
57 0.4% 2%  
58 0.9% 1.4%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 1.2% 99.7%  
27 2% 98%  
28 5% 97%  
29 6% 92%  
30 9% 86%  
31 8% 77%  
32 24% 69% Median
33 8% 46%  
34 11% 37%  
35 7% 26% Last Result
36 7% 19%  
37 3% 12%  
38 6% 9%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.9%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations