Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 15–21 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.9% 23.2–26.7% 22.7–27.2% 22.3–27.7% 21.5–28.6%
Høyre 25.0% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.6% 21.4–28.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Venstre 4.4% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–49 41–51 40–52 40–54
Høyre 45 45 41–47 39–48 38–49 37–51
Senterpartiet 19 23 20–27 19–27 19–28 18–31
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 17–23 17–25 17–26 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–14 9–15 9–16
Rødt 1 8 7–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–10 2–11 2–11 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 3–9 2–10 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 3% 99.6%  
41 4% 96%  
42 19% 92%  
43 8% 73%  
44 9% 65%  
45 16% 56% Median
46 9% 40%  
47 12% 31%  
48 8% 19%  
49 4% 11% Last Result
50 1.3% 6%  
51 1.0% 5%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.6% 1.2%  
54 0.4% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 2% 99.7%  
38 2% 98%  
39 2% 96%  
40 3% 94%  
41 6% 92%  
42 8% 85%  
43 11% 77%  
44 12% 67%  
45 20% 54% Last Result, Median
46 14% 35%  
47 12% 21%  
48 4% 8%  
49 2% 5%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.1%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.2% 100%  
19 5% 98.8% Last Result
20 14% 94%  
21 10% 80%  
22 12% 70%  
23 18% 58% Median
24 17% 40%  
25 8% 23%  
26 3% 15%  
27 7% 12%  
28 3% 5%  
29 0.5% 2%  
30 0.7% 2%  
31 0.8% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 8% 98%  
18 8% 90%  
19 18% 81%  
20 21% 64% Median
21 19% 43%  
22 8% 24%  
23 7% 16%  
24 3% 9%  
25 3% 6%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 3% 99.6%  
10 10% 96%  
11 29% 86% Last Result
12 21% 57% Median
13 25% 36%  
14 8% 11%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.7% 1.0%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 8% 99.9%  
3 0% 92%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0.1% 92%  
7 9% 92%  
8 34% 83% Median
9 24% 49%  
10 18% 25%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.5% 100% Last Result
2 7% 98.5%  
3 0.4% 91%  
4 0.9% 91%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0.1% 90%  
7 18% 90%  
8 28% 73% Median
9 16% 44%  
10 22% 28%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 3% 98%  
3 27% 95%  
4 0% 69%  
5 0% 69%  
6 0% 69%  
7 14% 69%  
8 30% 55% Last Result, Median
9 21% 25%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 42% 96%  
2 52% 54% Median
3 0% 1.3%  
4 0% 1.3%  
5 0% 1.3%  
6 0.2% 1.3%  
7 0.8% 1.1%  
8 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 96 100% 92–101 90–104 89–104 87–106
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 99.9% 92–100 90–102 89–102 86–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 94 99.8% 90–99 89–100 88–102 86–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 85% 83–94 82–95 81–97 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 84% 83–94 82–96 81–96 80–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 28% 78–88 77–89 76–90 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 14% 75–85 74–86 73–88 72–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 80 15% 75–86 74–87 72–88 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 1.4% 70–79 69–82 68–83 66–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 73 0% 68–77 65–79 65–80 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 63–73 62–75 62–76 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 67 0% 62–70 61–72 59–72 57–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 66 0% 60–69 59–70 58–71 56–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 53–61 52–62 51–63 50–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 53 0% 48–56 46–58 45–59 43–60
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 27–35 26–36 26–38 23–40

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 0.6% 99.3%  
89 2% 98.8%  
90 4% 97%  
91 2% 93%  
92 7% 91%  
93 16% 84%  
94 6% 68%  
95 4% 62%  
96 16% 58% Median
97 6% 43%  
98 6% 36%  
99 12% 31%  
100 6% 19%  
101 3% 13%  
102 1.4% 10%  
103 2% 8%  
104 4% 6%  
105 1.3% 2%  
106 0.7% 1.0%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.7% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.2%  
88 1.2% 98.8%  
89 2% 98%  
90 3% 96%  
91 3% 93%  
92 6% 90%  
93 21% 84%  
94 8% 63%  
95 6% 55%  
96 5% 48%  
97 6% 43%  
98 5% 37% Median
99 4% 31%  
100 21% 28%  
101 2% 7%  
102 3% 5%  
103 0.8% 2%  
104 0.6% 1.4%  
105 0.5% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.2% 100%  
84 0% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.8% Majority
86 0.4% 99.6%  
87 1.2% 99.2%  
88 2% 98% Last Result
89 4% 96%  
90 6% 93%  
91 4% 87%  
92 11% 83%  
93 7% 71%  
94 19% 65%  
95 13% 46%  
96 6% 33% Median
97 5% 27%  
98 7% 22%  
99 7% 14%  
100 3% 7%  
101 1.3% 4%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.6% 1.2%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.7%  
80 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
81 3% 99.1%  
82 2% 96%  
83 6% 95%  
84 4% 89%  
85 17% 85% Majority
86 7% 68%  
87 4% 60%  
88 5% 56% Median
89 20% 51%  
90 6% 31%  
91 3% 24%  
92 6% 22%  
93 3% 16%  
94 7% 12%  
95 2% 5%  
96 0.6% 4%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 1.4% 2%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
81 3% 98.8%  
82 5% 96%  
83 3% 91%  
84 5% 88%  
85 16% 84% Majority
86 4% 68%  
87 12% 64%  
88 10% 52% Median
89 11% 42%  
90 5% 31%  
91 9% 26%  
92 5% 17%  
93 2% 12%  
94 2% 10%  
95 2% 8%  
96 5% 6%  
97 0.9% 1.3%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.7%  
74 0.6% 99.6%  
75 1.4% 99.0%  
76 1.1% 98%  
77 6% 96% Last Result
78 3% 91%  
79 4% 87%  
80 15% 84%  
81 7% 68%  
82 12% 61%  
83 14% 49%  
84 7% 35% Median
85 5% 28% Majority
86 8% 23%  
87 4% 15%  
88 5% 11%  
89 3% 6%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.0%  
93 0.1% 0.5%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 4% 99.4%  
74 2% 96%  
75 6% 94%  
76 2% 88%  
77 16% 87%  
78 8% 70%  
79 11% 62% Last Result
80 13% 51% Median
81 6% 38%  
82 7% 31%  
83 7% 25%  
84 4% 18%  
85 4% 14% Majority
86 6% 10%  
87 1.1% 4%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 1.2% 1.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 1.5% 99.8%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 0.6% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 7% 95%  
76 3% 88%  
77 6% 84%  
78 3% 78%  
79 6% 76%  
80 20% 69%  
81 5% 49%  
82 4% 44%  
83 7% 40% Median
84 17% 32%  
85 4% 15% Majority
86 6% 11%  
87 1.4% 5%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 1.4% 99.7%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 0.7% 98%  
69 3% 97%  
70 13% 94%  
71 6% 81%  
72 3% 76%  
73 9% 72%  
74 5% 63%  
75 28% 58%  
76 5% 31% Last Result, Median
77 6% 26%  
78 8% 20%  
79 3% 12%  
80 2% 9%  
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 0.9% 3%  
84 0.4% 2%  
85 0.1% 1.4% Majority
86 0.1% 1.3%  
87 1.1% 1.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 99.7%  
64 1.4% 99.0%  
65 4% 98%  
66 2% 94%  
67 1.4% 92%  
68 3% 90%  
69 6% 87%  
70 12% 81%  
71 6% 69%  
72 6% 64%  
73 16% 57%  
74 4% 42%  
75 6% 38% Median
76 16% 32%  
77 7% 16%  
78 2% 9%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 6% 99.2%  
63 5% 93%  
64 3% 89%  
65 4% 86%  
66 15% 81%  
67 22% 66%  
68 8% 44% Last Result, Median
69 3% 35%  
70 9% 32%  
71 6% 23%  
72 3% 17%  
73 5% 14%  
74 2% 9%  
75 4% 7%  
76 1.1% 3%  
77 0.4% 2%  
78 0.1% 1.4%  
79 1.2% 1.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 99.4%  
59 2% 99.0%  
60 1.2% 97%  
61 4% 96%  
62 6% 92%  
63 5% 86%  
64 6% 81%  
65 14% 75%  
66 7% 61%  
67 24% 54% Median
68 8% 30%  
69 8% 22%  
70 4% 13%  
71 3% 9%  
72 4% 6%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.3% 1.1%  
75 0.4% 0.7%  
76 0.3% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 1.1% 99.3%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 5% 94%  
61 7% 90%  
62 4% 83%  
63 15% 79%  
64 9% 63%  
65 5% 55% Median
66 26% 50%  
67 10% 24%  
68 3% 14%  
69 5% 11%  
70 4% 7%  
71 0.8% 3%  
72 1.1% 2% Last Result
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 3% 99.4%  
52 3% 97%  
53 14% 94%  
54 4% 79%  
55 8% 76%  
56 18% 67%  
57 6% 50% Median
58 10% 44%  
59 9% 34%  
60 13% 25% Last Result
61 4% 12%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 1.0% 1.2%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.9%  
44 0.9% 99.3%  
45 2% 98%  
46 5% 97%  
47 1.2% 91%  
48 3% 90%  
49 6% 87%  
50 6% 81%  
51 12% 75%  
52 6% 63%  
53 16% 57%  
54 8% 41%  
55 19% 33% Median
56 8% 15%  
57 2% 7%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.3% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.3%  
61 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 0.7% 99.4%  
25 1.2% 98.8%  
26 5% 98%  
27 9% 93%  
28 6% 84%  
29 7% 78%  
30 18% 71%  
31 11% 53%  
32 7% 42%  
33 9% 36% Median
34 15% 27%  
35 2% 11% Last Result
36 4% 9%  
37 1.2% 5%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.8%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations