Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 24–30 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.6% 25.7–29.8% 25.1–30.4% 24.6–30.9% 23.7–31.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 20.8% 19.0–22.8% 18.5–23.3% 18.1–23.8% 17.3–24.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.7% 11.2–14.3% 10.8–14.8% 10.5–15.2% 9.8–16.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.6% 9.3–12.1% 8.9–12.6% 8.6–13.0% 8.0–13.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.1% 7.0–9.5% 6.7–9.9% 6.4–10.3% 5.9–11.0%
Rødt 2.4% 5.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.4% 4.4–7.7% 3.9–8.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.2% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.7% 3.8–7.0% 3.4–7.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.5% 2.4–6.0%
Venstre 4.4% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 45–53 45–55 43–56 41–58
Arbeiderpartiet 49 39 33–42 32–43 32–44 30–46
Senterpartiet 19 22 19–26 19–26 18–28 18–31
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 16–21 15–23 15–24 13–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–17 11–18 11–18 10–20
Rødt 1 10 8–13 7–13 7–14 2–15
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–11 2–12 2–12 1–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–7 0–7 0–8 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 99.4%  
43 2% 98.6%  
44 1.5% 97%  
45 6% 96% Last Result
46 6% 90%  
47 8% 83%  
48 9% 75%  
49 15% 66%  
50 18% 51% Median
51 11% 33%  
52 7% 22%  
53 6% 15%  
54 3% 10%  
55 3% 7%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.2% 2%  
58 0.8% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.7%  
31 1.0% 99.0%  
32 4% 98%  
33 5% 94%  
34 8% 89%  
35 4% 81%  
36 8% 77%  
37 12% 69%  
38 6% 57%  
39 10% 51% Median
40 20% 41%  
41 9% 21%  
42 4% 12%  
43 6% 9%  
44 1.3% 3%  
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 5% 99.7%  
19 11% 95% Last Result
20 9% 85%  
21 17% 76%  
22 19% 59% Median
23 12% 40%  
24 9% 28%  
25 9% 19%  
26 6% 10%  
27 1.3% 5%  
28 1.2% 3%  
29 1.4% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.9%  
31 0.4% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.8%  
14 1.3% 99.2%  
15 4% 98%  
16 13% 94%  
17 16% 81%  
18 18% 65% Median
19 17% 47%  
20 12% 30%  
21 8% 18%  
22 3% 9%  
23 3% 7%  
24 1.4% 4%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.6%  
11 5% 98% Last Result
12 18% 94%  
13 15% 75%  
14 15% 60% Median
15 16% 45%  
16 13% 29%  
17 7% 16%  
18 7% 9%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.9% 100%  
3 0% 99.1%  
4 0% 99.1%  
5 0% 99.1%  
6 0.1% 99.1%  
7 5% 99.0%  
8 10% 94%  
9 11% 84%  
10 27% 72% Median
11 24% 45%  
12 8% 21%  
13 9% 13%  
14 2% 4%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100% Last Result
2 8% 99.1%  
3 0.1% 92%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 0.1% 91%  
7 8% 91%  
8 18% 83%  
9 21% 65% Median
10 18% 44%  
11 17% 26%  
12 7% 8%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 5% 99.8%  
2 20% 95%  
3 32% 75% Median
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0.7% 43%  
7 16% 42%  
8 17% 26% Last Result
9 8% 9%  
10 0.8% 1.1%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 26% 94%  
2 52% 67% Median
3 0% 15%  
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 2% 15%  
7 10% 13%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 97 100% 92–103 91–105 91–105 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 93 99.1% 88–99 86–100 86–102 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 88 84% 84–93 83–94 81–95 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 53% 80–90 79–91 78–92 75–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 84 46% 79–89 78–90 77–91 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 39% 78–89 77–90 76–91 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 76 0.8% 70–81 69–82 67–83 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.3% 70–79 69–80 68–82 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 75 0.8% 68–80 68–81 67–82 63–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 66–75 65–76 63–77 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 64–73 62–74 62–75 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 66 0% 60–70 59–72 57–73 55–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 60 0% 56–65 54–66 54–67 51–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 57 0% 51–62 50–63 49–64 47–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 52 0% 48–57 47–58 46–59 43–60
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 29 0% 25–34 23–35 22–37 22–40

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.4% 99.8%  
89 0.5% 99.4%  
90 0.7% 98.9%  
91 8% 98%  
92 5% 91%  
93 4% 86%  
94 7% 81%  
95 11% 75% Median
96 8% 64%  
97 8% 56%  
98 5% 48%  
99 8% 43%  
100 13% 34%  
101 4% 21%  
102 4% 18%  
103 4% 14%  
104 4% 10%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.1% 2%  
107 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
108 0.3% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.5%  
85 0.5% 99.1% Majority
86 4% 98.6%  
87 3% 95%  
88 4% 92%  
89 4% 87%  
90 4% 84%  
91 12% 80%  
92 9% 68%  
93 10% 59%  
94 5% 49% Median
95 8% 44%  
96 6% 36%  
97 8% 29%  
98 6% 21%  
99 8% 15%  
100 3% 7%  
101 1.4% 5%  
102 3% 3%  
103 0.4% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 0.3% 99.3%  
80 1.1% 99.0%  
81 1.1% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 5% 95%  
84 7% 90%  
85 8% 84% Majority
86 8% 76%  
87 12% 68% Median
88 8% 56% Last Result
89 13% 48%  
90 9% 35%  
91 9% 27%  
92 4% 18%  
93 5% 13%  
94 4% 9%  
95 2% 5%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.4% 2%  
98 0.2% 1.1%  
99 0.6% 0.9%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.8% 99.4%  
77 0.7% 98.6%  
78 2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 7% 94% Last Result
81 10% 86%  
82 8% 77%  
83 8% 68%  
84 7% 60%  
85 9% 53% Median, Majority
86 11% 44%  
87 5% 34%  
88 7% 29%  
89 8% 22%  
90 6% 13%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.7% 1.4%  
95 0.4% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.6%  
75 0.7% 99.2%  
76 0.6% 98%  
77 2% 98%  
78 3% 96%  
79 6% 93%  
80 9% 86%  
81 7% 78%  
82 5% 71% Median
83 11% 66%  
84 9% 55%  
85 7% 46% Majority
86 8% 39%  
87 8% 31%  
88 10% 23%  
89 7% 13% Last Result
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.8% 1.3%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.7% 99.5%  
75 1.3% 98.8%  
76 2% 98%  
77 4% 95%  
78 2% 91%  
79 6% 90%  
80 8% 84% Last Result
81 8% 76%  
82 11% 67%  
83 5% 56%  
84 13% 52% Median
85 8% 39% Majority
86 7% 31%  
87 7% 25%  
88 6% 18%  
89 7% 12%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.7% 3%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.5% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 3% 99.2%  
68 1.5% 97%  
69 3% 95%  
70 8% 93%  
71 6% 84%  
72 8% 79%  
73 6% 70% Median
74 8% 64%  
75 5% 56%  
76 10% 50%  
77 9% 40%  
78 12% 31%  
79 4% 19%  
80 4% 16%  
81 4% 12%  
82 3% 8%  
83 4% 5%  
84 0.4% 1.2%  
85 0.4% 0.8% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1% Last Result
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.6%  
66 0.3% 99.2%  
67 0.6% 98.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 6% 94%  
71 12% 88%  
72 5% 76%  
73 11% 71%  
74 9% 60%  
75 11% 51% Median
76 11% 40%  
77 6% 29%  
78 7% 22%  
79 7% 16% Last Result
80 4% 8%  
81 1.2% 4%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.7% 1.1%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 0.3% 99.4%  
65 0.7% 99.1%  
66 0.8% 98%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 7% 96%  
69 5% 89%  
70 8% 84%  
71 8% 76%  
72 5% 68%  
73 5% 63% Median
74 7% 57%  
75 17% 50%  
76 7% 33%  
77 9% 26% Last Result
78 3% 18%  
79 4% 15%  
80 5% 11%  
81 3% 6%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.3%  
85 0.3% 0.8% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 0.4% 99.0%  
63 2% 98.6%  
64 2% 97%  
65 4% 95%  
66 5% 91%  
67 7% 86%  
68 14% 80%  
69 5% 66%  
70 15% 61% Median
71 6% 45%  
72 7% 39%  
73 7% 32%  
74 10% 24%  
75 8% 14%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.4%  
80 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 0.3% 99.0%  
61 0.8% 98.7%  
62 3% 98%  
63 2% 95%  
64 7% 93%  
65 5% 86%  
66 16% 81%  
67 8% 65%  
68 17% 56% Median
69 10% 40%  
70 7% 29%  
71 4% 23%  
72 7% 18% Last Result
73 5% 11%  
74 3% 6%  
75 0.9% 3%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 2% 97%  
59 5% 95%  
60 2% 90%  
61 11% 88%  
62 3% 77%  
63 7% 74%  
64 9% 67% Median
65 6% 57%  
66 14% 51%  
67 13% 37%  
68 5% 24%  
69 7% 19%  
70 5% 12%  
71 2% 7%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.5% 3%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 0.3% 1.2%  
76 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.5%  
78 0.4% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.5% 100%  
52 0.5% 99.4%  
53 1.2% 99.0%  
54 4% 98%  
55 1.4% 94%  
56 8% 92%  
57 3% 84%  
58 11% 82%  
59 17% 71%  
60 6% 55%  
61 10% 49% Median
62 14% 39%  
63 4% 25%  
64 10% 20%  
65 4% 10%  
66 3% 6%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.5% 2% Last Result
69 0.4% 1.1%  
70 0.4% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.6%  
48 1.3% 99.3%  
49 0.7% 98%  
50 4% 97%  
51 4% 93%  
52 6% 90%  
53 10% 83%  
54 10% 74%  
55 7% 64% Median
56 5% 56%  
57 9% 52%  
58 4% 43%  
59 8% 38%  
60 10% 31%  
61 11% 21% Last Result
62 2% 10%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.4% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 0.3% 99.4%  
45 1.1% 99.0%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 7% 92%  
49 8% 85%  
50 5% 77%  
51 6% 72%  
52 22% 66%  
53 8% 43% Median
54 5% 35%  
55 11% 30%  
56 9% 19%  
57 5% 11%  
58 2% 6%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.6%  
23 3% 97%  
24 2% 94%  
25 6% 92%  
26 7% 86%  
27 13% 78% Median
28 6% 65%  
29 13% 60%  
30 9% 46%  
31 10% 38%  
32 7% 27%  
33 4% 20%  
34 6% 16%  
35 5% 10% Last Result
36 1.4% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.5% 1.5%  
39 0.3% 1.0%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations