Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 7–8 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.3% 25.5–29.2% 25.0–29.7% 24.6–30.1% 23.8–31.1%
Høyre 25.0% 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.7% 12.4–15.2% 12.0–15.6% 11.7–16.0% 11.1–16.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Rødt 2.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 49 45–54 44–56 43–57 41–58
Høyre 45 42 38–46 37–47 37–48 35–50
Senterpartiet 19 25 21–28 20–29 19–30 19–33
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 16–21 16–22 15–23 14–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 8–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 7–10 2–11 2–11 1–12
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 1–9 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.9% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.1%  
43 1.0% 98%  
44 3% 97%  
45 7% 94%  
46 9% 87%  
47 12% 78%  
48 10% 66%  
49 16% 56% Last Result, Median
50 7% 40%  
51 6% 33%  
52 7% 27%  
53 8% 19%  
54 3% 11%  
55 3% 8%  
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 3%  
58 1.0% 1.3%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 99.2%  
37 6% 98%  
38 14% 92%  
39 5% 78%  
40 11% 72%  
41 10% 62%  
42 10% 52% Median
43 14% 41%  
44 7% 27%  
45 6% 20% Last Result
46 6% 14%  
47 4% 8%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.9% 1.5%  
50 0.3% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7% Last Result
20 3% 97%  
21 7% 94%  
22 13% 88%  
23 9% 75%  
24 9% 65%  
25 28% 56% Median
26 7% 28%  
27 9% 21%  
28 6% 11%  
29 2% 6%  
30 1.3% 4%  
31 1.2% 2%  
32 0.6% 1.2%  
33 0.3% 0.6%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 1.2% 99.6%  
15 3% 98%  
16 8% 96%  
17 25% 88%  
18 12% 63%  
19 25% 51% Median
20 15% 26%  
21 4% 11%  
22 3% 7%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.5% 1.1%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.6% 99.9%  
9 3% 99.4%  
10 11% 97%  
11 14% 85% Last Result
12 22% 72% Median
13 28% 49%  
14 15% 21%  
15 3% 6%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.4% 0.6%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100% Last Result
2 6% 99.3%  
3 0.4% 94%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0.1% 93%  
7 11% 93%  
8 32% 82% Median
9 28% 49%  
10 15% 21%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.9% 1.2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 22% 96%  
3 0% 74%  
4 0% 74%  
5 0% 74%  
6 0.5% 74%  
7 15% 74%  
8 31% 59% Median
9 20% 28%  
10 8% 8%  
11 0.9% 0.9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 11% 99.9%  
2 6% 89%  
3 38% 83% Median
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0.4% 45%  
7 25% 44%  
8 14% 19% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 74% 95% Median
3 0.1% 21%  
4 0% 21%  
5 0% 21%  
6 0.5% 21%  
7 10% 21%  
8 7% 11% Last Result
9 4% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 102 100% 95–106 94–107 92–108 89–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 99 100% 94–104 92–105 91–106 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.4% 89–99 87–101 87–102 84–104
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 92 98.5% 88–98 86–100 85–101 83–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 94 97% 87–97 86–99 84–100 80–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 87 68% 81–92 80–93 79–94 76–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 86 71% 81–91 80–92 79–93 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 6% 73–83 72–85 71–86 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 75 3% 72–82 70–83 69–85 67–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0.3% 69–79 67–80 67–81 66–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 67 0% 63–74 62–75 61–77 59–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 63 0% 59–69 57–71 56–73 55–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 62 0% 57–66 56–68 55–68 53–71
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 60 0% 56–65 55–66 54–67 52–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 48 0% 45–56 43–58 42–59 41–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 27–37 26–39 26–42 24–43

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.9%  
89 0.9% 99.6%  
90 0.3% 98.7%  
91 0.8% 98%  
92 0.8% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 3% 95%  
95 4% 92%  
96 4% 88%  
97 6% 84%  
98 5% 78%  
99 7% 73%  
100 5% 66%  
101 9% 61%  
102 8% 52% Median
103 16% 44%  
104 11% 28%  
105 7% 17%  
106 4% 10%  
107 2% 6%  
108 2% 4%  
109 0.5% 2%  
110 1.3% 2%  
111 0.3% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.2% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
89 0.5% 99.5%  
90 0.9% 99.0%  
91 1.0% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 4% 95%  
94 7% 91%  
95 3% 84%  
96 7% 82%  
97 5% 75% Median
98 15% 70%  
99 10% 55%  
100 5% 45%  
101 5% 40%  
102 19% 35%  
103 5% 16%  
104 4% 10%  
105 2% 6%  
106 2% 4%  
107 0.9% 2%  
108 0.7% 1.1%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.6%  
85 0.5% 99.4% Majority
86 0.8% 98.9%  
87 3% 98%  
88 2% 95%  
89 3% 93%  
90 7% 90%  
91 7% 83%  
92 3% 76%  
93 8% 73%  
94 11% 65% Median
95 21% 54%  
96 10% 33%  
97 5% 22%  
98 3% 17%  
99 6% 14%  
100 3% 8%  
101 2% 5%  
102 1.3% 3%  
103 1.0% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.6%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.5% 99.6%  
84 0.6% 99.1%  
85 2% 98.5% Majority
86 3% 97%  
87 2% 94%  
88 8% 91%  
89 2% 83%  
90 9% 81%  
91 16% 72% Median
92 11% 56%  
93 10% 45%  
94 7% 35%  
95 6% 28%  
96 6% 22%  
97 4% 16%  
98 3% 12%  
99 2% 8%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.3% 4%  
102 1.1% 2%  
103 0.4% 1.4%  
104 0.3% 1.0%  
105 0.4% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.3%  
82 0.4% 99.2%  
83 1.2% 98.8%  
84 0.9% 98%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 5% 95%  
87 4% 91%  
88 5% 87%  
89 6% 81%  
90 4% 75%  
91 7% 71%  
92 5% 64%  
93 6% 59%  
94 9% 53% Median
95 23% 44%  
96 7% 22%  
97 7% 15%  
98 3% 8%  
99 2% 5%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.3% 2%  
102 0.7% 1.0%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
78 0.7% 99.2%  
79 3% 98%  
80 3% 96%  
81 3% 93%  
82 4% 90%  
83 9% 86%  
84 9% 77%  
85 10% 68% Median, Majority
86 4% 58%  
87 9% 54%  
88 5% 45%  
89 15% 39%  
90 7% 25%  
91 7% 18%  
92 4% 11%  
93 3% 8%  
94 2% 5%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.8% 1.4%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 1.3% 99.3%  
79 2% 98% Last Result
80 3% 96%  
81 5% 93%  
82 6% 87%  
83 4% 81%  
84 7% 77%  
85 6% 71% Majority
86 19% 65% Median
87 15% 46%  
88 11% 31%  
89 4% 20%  
90 5% 16%  
91 3% 11%  
92 4% 8%  
93 1.4% 3%  
94 0.5% 2%  
95 0.9% 1.4%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.8%  
70 0.8% 99.2%  
71 2% 98%  
72 6% 97%  
73 3% 91%  
74 8% 89%  
75 6% 81%  
76 9% 76% Last Result
77 11% 67% Median
78 6% 55%  
79 4% 50%  
80 8% 45%  
81 14% 37%  
82 7% 23%  
83 6% 16%  
84 4% 10%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 0.9% 3%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.7%  
68 1.3% 99.0%  
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 3% 95%  
72 7% 92%  
73 7% 85%  
74 23% 78% Median
75 9% 56%  
76 6% 47%  
77 5% 41%  
78 7% 36%  
79 4% 29%  
80 6% 25%  
81 5% 19%  
82 4% 13%  
83 5% 9%  
84 2% 5%  
85 0.9% 3% Majority
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.2%  
88 0.2% 0.8%  
89 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.6%  
67 4% 98.9%  
68 2% 95% Last Result
69 7% 92%  
70 3% 86%  
71 6% 83%  
72 7% 77%  
73 13% 69%  
74 23% 56% Median
75 9% 33%  
76 5% 25%  
77 7% 20%  
78 3% 13%  
79 3% 10%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.3% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.1%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 1.3% 99.6%  
60 0.5% 98%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 96%  
63 4% 94%  
64 7% 90%  
65 11% 83%  
66 16% 72% Median
67 8% 56%  
68 9% 48%  
69 5% 39%  
70 7% 34%  
71 5% 27%  
72 6% 22%  
73 4% 16%  
74 4% 12%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 0.8% 3%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.3% 2%  
80 0.9% 1.3%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.8% 99.6%  
56 2% 98.8%  
57 3% 97%  
58 2% 94%  
59 17% 91%  
60 3% 74%  
61 7% 72%  
62 12% 65%  
63 8% 52% Median
64 5% 44%  
65 10% 39%  
66 7% 30%  
67 8% 23%  
68 4% 15%  
69 3% 11%  
70 2% 8%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 5%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.3% 1.2%  
75 0.5% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 0.9% 99.2%  
55 2% 98%  
56 2% 96%  
57 7% 94%  
58 7% 87%  
59 10% 80%  
60 5% 70% Last Result
61 15% 65% Median
62 13% 50%  
63 11% 37%  
64 4% 26%  
65 5% 21%  
66 9% 16%  
67 2% 7%  
68 3% 5%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.5% 1.1%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.7%  
53 1.0% 99.3%  
54 3% 98%  
55 4% 96%  
56 3% 92%  
57 19% 89%  
58 5% 69%  
59 9% 64%  
60 13% 56%  
61 8% 42% Median
62 6% 34%  
63 8% 28%  
64 7% 20%  
65 7% 13%  
66 3% 7%  
67 1.3% 3%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.0%  
43 3% 97%  
44 2% 94%  
45 3% 92%  
46 8% 89%  
47 17% 81% Median
48 14% 63%  
49 5% 49%  
50 8% 44%  
51 7% 36%  
52 6% 29%  
53 5% 23%  
54 2% 18%  
55 5% 16%  
56 2% 11%  
57 4% 9%  
58 1.0% 5%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.3% 2%  
61 0.7% 1.4% Last Result
62 0.5% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.2% 99.6%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 3% 98%  
27 7% 95%  
28 6% 88%  
29 6% 82%  
30 11% 76% Median
31 7% 65%  
32 9% 58%  
33 7% 49%  
34 13% 42%  
35 10% 29% Last Result
36 6% 19%  
37 4% 13%  
38 3% 9%  
39 3% 7%  
40 0.5% 4%  
41 0.7% 3%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.5% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations