Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 29 July–3 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.7% 25.6–30.0% 25.0–30.6% 24.5–31.2% 23.5–32.3%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.6% 22.6–26.7% 22.0–27.4% 21.5–27.9% 20.6–29.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.1% 13.5–16.9% 13.0–17.5% 12.6–17.9% 11.9–18.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.8% 8.5–11.4% 8.1–11.8% 7.8–12.2% 7.2–13.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.0% 5.0–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.5–8.1% 4.1–8.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 3.0–6.1% 2.7–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–4.9% 1.9–5.5%
Venstre 4.4% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 45–54 43–56 42–57 40–58
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–48 40–50 39–51 37–54
Senterpartiet 19 28 24–33 23–33 22–34 20–36
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 15–20 14–21 13–22 12–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 8–14 8–15 7–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 1–11 1–11 1–12
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 1–11 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 0–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–3 1–7 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.9% 99.4%  
42 2% 98.5%  
43 2% 97%  
44 2% 95%  
45 5% 93% Last Result
46 11% 88%  
47 11% 77%  
48 7% 66%  
49 19% 60% Median
50 6% 40%  
51 6% 34%  
52 8% 28%  
53 5% 20%  
54 5% 14%  
55 4% 10%  
56 1.2% 5%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.4% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.4%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.5% 99.6%  
38 1.0% 99.2%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 96%  
41 6% 89%  
42 11% 84%  
43 21% 73%  
44 12% 52% Median
45 13% 40%  
46 8% 27%  
47 8% 19%  
48 4% 12%  
49 3% 8% Last Result
50 2% 5%  
51 1.4% 3%  
52 0.6% 2%  
53 0.6% 1.2%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.7% 99.8%  
21 1.0% 99.1%  
22 2% 98%  
23 5% 97%  
24 4% 92%  
25 11% 88%  
26 9% 77%  
27 16% 68%  
28 7% 52% Median
29 8% 45%  
30 5% 37%  
31 6% 32%  
32 5% 26%  
33 17% 20%  
34 1.2% 3%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.6%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.7%  
13 2% 98.9%  
14 6% 97%  
15 10% 91%  
16 12% 81%  
17 13% 69%  
18 19% 56% Median
19 25% 38%  
20 7% 13%  
21 4% 6%  
22 1.4% 3%  
23 0.8% 1.3%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.3% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0% 99.6%  
7 2% 99.6%  
8 4% 98%  
9 14% 94%  
10 29% 80%  
11 26% 51% Last Result, Median
12 12% 25%  
13 7% 13%  
14 3% 6%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100% Last Result
2 9% 95%  
3 2% 86%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0.1% 83%  
7 10% 83%  
8 32% 73% Median
9 23% 41%  
10 10% 18%  
11 6% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 25% 97%  
3 0% 73%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0.3% 73%  
7 14% 72%  
8 35% 58% Median
9 11% 24%  
10 9% 13%  
11 2% 4%  
12 1.4% 1.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 38% 96%  
2 13% 58% Median
3 34% 45%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.4% 11%  
7 5% 11%  
8 3% 5% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 17% 99.4%  
2 72% 82% Median
3 0.2% 10%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 1.3% 10%  
7 5% 9%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 94–106 93–107 92–109 89–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 97 99.8% 92–103 90–104 88–104 85–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 93 98% 87–99 86–100 85–101 83–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 90% 84–97 84–97 82–98 79–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 87% 84–96 83–97 81–98 78–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 40% 77–88 76–89 75–91 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 32% 76–89 76–89 74–90 71–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 79 13% 73–85 72–86 71–88 68–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 1.3% 70–80 68–81 67–83 66–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 72 0.2% 66–77 65–79 65–81 62–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 72 0.2% 67–78 66–78 65–80 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 69 0% 63–75 62–76 62–77 59–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 67 0% 61–73 60–74 59–75 56–77
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 54 0% 50–59 49–62 47–64 46–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 51–59 49–62 48–62 47–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 28–38 27–41 25–42 24–45

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.4% 99.4%  
91 1.0% 99.0%  
92 2% 98%  
93 4% 96%  
94 5% 93%  
95 2% 88%  
96 3% 86%  
97 10% 83%  
98 4% 72%  
99 8% 68% Median
100 15% 60%  
101 11% 45%  
102 7% 34%  
103 11% 27%  
104 2% 16%  
105 4% 14%  
106 5% 10%  
107 1.1% 5% Last Result
108 1.2% 4%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.5% 1.5%  
111 0.2% 1.0%  
112 0.5% 0.8%  
113 0.3% 0.3%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.8% Majority
86 0.7% 99.4%  
87 0.8% 98.8%  
88 0.5% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 95%  
91 2% 94%  
92 6% 92%  
93 6% 86%  
94 5% 80%  
95 6% 75%  
96 15% 69%  
97 4% 53%  
98 7% 49%  
99 11% 43% Median
100 4% 32%  
101 9% 28%  
102 3% 18%  
103 9% 15%  
104 3% 5%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.6% 1.2%  
107 0.3% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.9% 99.5%  
84 1.1% 98.7%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 3% 95%  
87 3% 92%  
88 4% 89% Last Result
89 2% 85%  
90 6% 83%  
91 14% 77%  
92 7% 63%  
93 7% 56% Median
94 14% 49%  
95 7% 35%  
96 4% 28%  
97 4% 24%  
98 6% 20%  
99 8% 14%  
100 3% 6%  
101 1.1% 3%  
102 0.8% 2%  
103 0.4% 1.1%  
104 0.3% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.7%  
80 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
81 0.7% 99.0%  
82 1.4% 98%  
83 1.2% 97%  
84 6% 96%  
85 4% 90% Majority
86 4% 86%  
87 5% 82%  
88 14% 77%  
89 6% 64%  
90 5% 58%  
91 7% 53% Median
92 5% 46%  
93 13% 41%  
94 7% 28%  
95 7% 21%  
96 3% 15%  
97 7% 11%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.3% 2%  
100 0.2% 1.0%  
101 0.5% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.3%  
80 0.9% 98.9% Last Result
81 0.6% 98%  
82 1.3% 97%  
83 4% 96%  
84 5% 93%  
85 5% 87% Majority
86 5% 82%  
87 5% 78%  
88 16% 73%  
89 4% 57%  
90 13% 53%  
91 9% 40% Median
92 3% 31%  
93 7% 28%  
94 3% 21%  
95 8% 18%  
96 5% 10%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.0% 3%  
99 0.4% 2%  
100 0.4% 2%  
101 1.0% 1.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 99.6%  
74 0.7% 99.2%  
75 2% 98.6%  
76 4% 97%  
77 3% 93%  
78 3% 90%  
79 4% 87% Last Result
80 11% 83%  
81 9% 71%  
82 7% 62%  
83 10% 55% Median
84 5% 45%  
85 4% 40% Majority
86 13% 36%  
87 7% 23%  
88 9% 16%  
89 3% 7%  
90 1.2% 4%  
91 0.6% 3%  
92 1.5% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.8% 99.7%  
72 0.3% 98.9%  
73 0.4% 98.6%  
74 1.5% 98%  
75 1.5% 97%  
76 6% 95%  
77 4% 89% Last Result
78 3% 85%  
79 5% 82%  
80 5% 77%  
81 15% 71%  
82 6% 56% Median
83 12% 50%  
84 6% 39%  
85 5% 32% Majority
86 6% 28%  
87 9% 22%  
88 2% 13%  
89 6% 11%  
90 3% 4%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.5%  
93 0.4% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 1.0% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 98.9%  
70 0.4% 98%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 5% 95%  
74 8% 90%  
75 3% 82%  
76 7% 79%  
77 3% 72%  
78 9% 69%  
79 13% 60% Median
80 4% 47%  
81 16% 43%  
82 5% 27%  
83 5% 22%  
84 5% 18%  
85 5% 13% Majority
86 4% 7%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 0.6% 3%  
89 0.9% 2% Last Result
90 0.4% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.5%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 4% 97%  
69 2% 93%  
70 6% 91%  
71 7% 86%  
72 2% 79%  
73 18% 77%  
74 7% 59% Median
75 5% 52%  
76 13% 47% Last Result
77 5% 34%  
78 8% 29%  
79 7% 22%  
80 8% 15%  
81 3% 7%  
82 1.1% 4%  
83 1.0% 3%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.3% Majority
86 0.2% 0.7%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.6% 99.4%  
64 0.9% 98.8%  
65 3% 98%  
66 9% 95%  
67 3% 85%  
68 9% 82%  
69 4% 72%  
70 11% 68%  
71 7% 57% Median
72 4% 51%  
73 15% 47%  
74 6% 31%  
75 5% 25%  
76 6% 20%  
77 6% 14%  
78 2% 8%  
79 2% 6%  
80 2% 5%  
81 0.5% 3%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 0.8% 99.1%  
65 1.4% 98%  
66 3% 97%  
67 5% 94%  
68 5% 88% Last Result
69 5% 84%  
70 17% 78%  
71 6% 62%  
72 8% 56% Median
73 7% 48%  
74 6% 42%  
75 12% 35%  
76 7% 24%  
77 5% 17%  
78 8% 12%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.8% 3%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.5% 0.9%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.1% 99.7%  
59 0.2% 99.6%  
60 0.4% 99.4%  
61 0.8% 99.0%  
62 3% 98%  
63 6% 95%  
64 2% 89%  
65 7% 87%  
66 4% 80%  
67 9% 76%  
68 11% 67%  
69 7% 56% Median
70 17% 49%  
71 4% 32%  
72 5% 28%  
73 6% 22%  
74 4% 16%  
75 5% 12%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.3%  
80 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 0.3% 99.3%  
58 0.9% 99.1%  
59 0.9% 98%  
60 4% 97%  
61 6% 94%  
62 3% 88%  
63 7% 85%  
64 4% 78%  
65 9% 73%  
66 11% 64%  
67 8% 54% Median
68 18% 46%  
69 4% 28%  
70 5% 25%  
71 4% 19%  
72 5% 15% Last Result
73 4% 10%  
74 1.5% 6%  
75 3% 4%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.7%  
48 0.8% 97%  
49 6% 96%  
50 8% 90%  
51 12% 82%  
52 9% 70%  
53 7% 61% Median
54 14% 54%  
55 7% 40%  
56 8% 33%  
57 5% 25%  
58 5% 20%  
59 5% 15%  
60 2% 10%  
61 2% 8% Last Result
62 2% 6%  
63 1.0% 4%  
64 0.9% 3%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.7%  
47 0.7% 99.5%  
48 1.5% 98.8%  
49 4% 97%  
50 2% 94%  
51 7% 92%  
52 3% 84%  
53 21% 81%  
54 10% 61%  
55 14% 51% Median
56 10% 36%  
57 7% 26%  
58 8% 20%  
59 3% 12%  
60 2% 9% Last Result
61 1.4% 6%  
62 3% 5%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.4%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.7%  
25 2% 98.9%  
26 1.5% 97%  
27 3% 96%  
28 6% 93%  
29 7% 87%  
30 7% 79%  
31 7% 73%  
32 15% 66% Median
33 8% 51%  
34 9% 44%  
35 2% 35% Last Result
36 8% 33%  
37 10% 25%  
38 7% 15%  
39 2% 9%  
40 2% 7%  
41 1.5% 5%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.8% 2%  
44 0.5% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations