Opinion Poll by InFact for Avisa Nordland, Bergensavisen, iFinnmark and Nidaros, 4 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.1% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.4% 22.5–27.8% 21.7–28.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.4–24.4% 18.6–25.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.1% 12.7–15.5% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.3% 11.5–17.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.2% 7.2–11.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.5–9.7%
Rødt 2.4% 5.8% 4.9–6.8% 4.7–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–7.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–6.9% 3.8–7.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 44 40–49 39–50 39–51 37–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 37–44 36–45 34–45 33–47
Senterpartiet 19 26 21–30 21–32 20–33 19–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 16 13–18 12–20 12–20 11–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 9–16 9–17
Rødt 1 10 8–11 7–12 7–12 6–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–11 7–11 7–12 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 9 7–10 7–11 3–11 3–12
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 2–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.3%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 94%  
41 12% 89%  
42 11% 77%  
43 8% 66%  
44 12% 57% Median
45 12% 46% Last Result
46 8% 34%  
47 6% 26%  
48 8% 20%  
49 6% 12%  
50 3% 6%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.6%  
34 2% 99.1%  
35 2% 97%  
36 2% 95%  
37 9% 93%  
38 7% 85%  
39 8% 78%  
40 15% 69%  
41 25% 55% Median
42 11% 29%  
43 4% 18%  
44 8% 14%  
45 4% 6%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7% Last Result
20 3% 98%  
21 7% 95%  
22 8% 89%  
23 13% 81%  
24 11% 68%  
25 6% 57%  
26 10% 52% Median
27 5% 42%  
28 6% 37%  
29 10% 30%  
30 11% 21%  
31 3% 10%  
32 3% 6%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 1.5%  
35 0.6% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.0% 99.8%  
12 6% 98.8%  
13 11% 92%  
14 14% 81%  
15 16% 67%  
16 22% 51% Median
17 14% 29%  
18 5% 15%  
19 4% 10%  
20 3% 6%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 2% 99.7%  
10 8% 97%  
11 25% 89% Last Result
12 25% 64% Median
13 23% 39%  
14 9% 17%  
15 5% 7%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.9% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.4% 100%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0.3% 99.6%  
7 4% 99.3%  
8 13% 95%  
9 23% 82%  
10 38% 59% Median
11 13% 21%  
12 6% 8%  
13 1.3% 1.5%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 0.9% 99.8%  
3 0.2% 98.9%  
4 0% 98.7%  
5 0% 98.7%  
6 0.3% 98.7%  
7 13% 98%  
8 22% 85%  
9 27% 63% Median
10 24% 36%  
11 9% 12%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 3% 99.8%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0.4% 97%  
7 16% 97%  
8 31% 81% Last Result
9 30% 50% Median
10 13% 20%  
11 5% 7%  
12 1.3% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 65% 98% Median
3 0.1% 33%  
4 0% 33%  
5 0% 33%  
6 8% 33%  
7 19% 25%  
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 98 100% 94–102 93–104 92–105 90–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 97 100% 92–102 89–102 88–104 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 96 99.9% 90–101 89–102 88–103 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 83% 83–93 82–94 80–95 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 77% 82–92 80–93 79–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 84 48% 78–88 76–89 76–90 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 81 16% 76–86 75–87 74–89 72–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 4% 74–83 72–84 71–85 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 0.4% 70–79 68–81 67–82 64–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 72 0% 67–77 67–80 65–81 63–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 61–71 60–73 59–74 56–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 63 0% 59–70 58–71 57–72 55–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 60 0% 56–65 54–66 54–67 52–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 56 0% 52–61 51–63 50–65 47–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 49–56 48–57 46–58 44–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 38 0% 33–43 32–45 31–46 28–48

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.4% 99.6%  
91 0.8% 99.1%  
92 1.5% 98%  
93 4% 97%  
94 7% 93%  
95 11% 85%  
96 8% 74%  
97 12% 66% Median
98 18% 54%  
99 8% 36%  
100 9% 28%  
101 6% 19%  
102 4% 13%  
103 3% 9%  
104 2% 6%  
105 2% 4%  
106 1.3% 2%  
107 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.5% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.5%  
88 2% 99.2%  
89 3% 97%  
90 1.2% 94%  
91 3% 93%  
92 5% 90%  
93 5% 85%  
94 6% 80%  
95 8% 75%  
96 7% 67%  
97 10% 60%  
98 9% 50% Median
99 8% 41%  
100 12% 33%  
101 10% 21%  
102 6% 10%  
103 2% 4%  
104 0.8% 3%  
105 1.2% 2%  
106 0.4% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.4% 99.9% Majority
86 1.0% 99.5%  
87 0.9% 98%  
88 2% 98% Last Result
89 3% 96%  
90 3% 93%  
91 5% 90%  
92 7% 84%  
93 6% 77%  
94 3% 71%  
95 11% 68%  
96 8% 57%  
97 8% 49% Median
98 10% 41%  
99 12% 30%  
100 7% 18%  
101 5% 11%  
102 2% 5%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.6% 1.1%  
105 0.3% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.4% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.6%  
79 0.5% 99.2%  
80 2% 98.8% Last Result
81 2% 97%  
82 4% 95%  
83 2% 92%  
84 6% 89%  
85 8% 83% Majority
86 12% 75%  
87 6% 64%  
88 13% 58%  
89 6% 45% Median
90 12% 39%  
91 4% 27%  
92 6% 22%  
93 10% 16%  
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 1.1% 1.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 0.7% 99.4%  
79 2% 98.6%  
80 3% 96% Last Result
81 2% 94%  
82 3% 92%  
83 4% 89%  
84 7% 84%  
85 7% 77% Majority
86 9% 70%  
87 9% 61%  
88 8% 52% Median
89 9% 43%  
90 12% 35%  
91 10% 23%  
92 5% 13%  
93 4% 8%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.9% 1.5%  
96 0.3% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.3%  
75 1.1% 99.0%  
76 4% 98%  
77 2% 94% Last Result
78 2% 92%  
79 7% 90%  
80 5% 83%  
81 6% 77%  
82 4% 71%  
83 8% 68%  
84 11% 59%  
85 13% 48% Median, Majority
86 11% 35%  
87 8% 24%  
88 6% 16%  
89 5% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.8% 1.1%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 1.2% 99.7%  
73 0.7% 98.6%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 96%  
76 10% 94%  
77 6% 84%  
78 4% 77%  
79 12% 73%  
80 6% 61% Median
81 13% 55%  
82 6% 42%  
83 12% 36%  
84 8% 24%  
85 6% 16% Majority
86 2% 11%  
87 4% 8%  
88 2% 5%  
89 2% 3% Last Result
90 0.4% 1.2%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.4% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.4%  
70 0.4% 99.1%  
71 3% 98.7%  
72 2% 96%  
73 4% 94%  
74 5% 90%  
75 4% 86%  
76 12% 81%  
77 11% 69%  
78 7% 58%  
79 11% 50% Last Result, Median
80 11% 40%  
81 6% 29%  
82 3% 23%  
83 10% 20%  
84 5% 9%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 2% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.3%  
66 0.4% 99.0%  
67 1.3% 98.7%  
68 3% 97%  
69 5% 95%  
70 4% 90%  
71 5% 86%  
72 11% 82%  
73 8% 71%  
74 8% 63%  
75 12% 55%  
76 6% 43% Last Result, Median
77 8% 36%  
78 15% 29%  
79 4% 14%  
80 3% 10%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.7% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.4% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 1.2% 99.3%  
65 0.8% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 6% 96%  
68 10% 89%  
69 12% 79%  
70 8% 67%  
71 9% 59% Median
72 10% 50%  
73 7% 40%  
74 8% 33%  
75 6% 25%  
76 5% 19%  
77 5% 15%  
78 3% 10%  
79 1.2% 7%  
80 3% 6%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.2% 0.8%  
83 0.5% 0.5%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.4%  
58 0.6% 99.1%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 97%  
61 3% 93%  
62 4% 90%  
63 6% 85%  
64 9% 79%  
65 15% 71%  
66 11% 56%  
67 9% 45% Median
68 7% 36% Last Result
69 5% 29%  
70 12% 24%  
71 5% 12%  
72 2% 7%  
73 3% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.3% 1.0%  
76 0.6% 0.7%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.7% 99.4%  
57 3% 98.7%  
58 4% 96%  
59 7% 92%  
60 15% 84%  
61 6% 70%  
62 12% 64% Median
63 7% 52%  
64 10% 45%  
65 5% 34%  
66 4% 29%  
67 6% 25%  
68 5% 19%  
69 3% 13%  
70 4% 10%  
71 3% 6%  
72 1.3% 3%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.9% 1.3%  
75 0.4% 0.4%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.6% 99.6%  
53 1.1% 99.0%  
54 3% 98%  
55 5% 95%  
56 6% 90%  
57 9% 85%  
58 17% 75%  
59 7% 58%  
60 14% 51% Median
61 6% 37%  
62 8% 30%  
63 3% 22%  
64 8% 20%  
65 4% 11%  
66 5% 8%  
67 1.5% 3%  
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.4%  
49 0.7% 98.9%  
50 1.0% 98%  
51 4% 97%  
52 12% 93%  
53 9% 81%  
54 5% 72%  
55 14% 67% Median
56 9% 53%  
57 6% 44%  
58 6% 38%  
59 10% 32%  
60 5% 22%  
61 7% 17% Last Result
62 2% 10%  
63 2% 7%  
64 1.5% 5%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.6% 1.3%  
67 0.4% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.6% 99.5%  
46 2% 98.8%  
47 1.4% 97%  
48 3% 95%  
49 5% 93%  
50 6% 88%  
51 14% 81%  
52 10% 67%  
53 20% 57% Median
54 15% 37%  
55 9% 21%  
56 5% 12%  
57 4% 7%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.8% 1.2%  
60 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 0.7% 99.4%  
30 0.9% 98.7%  
31 2% 98%  
32 2% 96%  
33 7% 94%  
34 5% 88%  
35 10% 82% Last Result
36 10% 72%  
37 11% 62% Median
38 6% 51%  
39 8% 45%  
40 15% 37%  
41 5% 22%  
42 5% 17%  
43 3% 12%  
44 3% 9%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.8% 1.3%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations