Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for TV2, 4–7 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.3% 23.3–27.4% 22.8–28.0% 22.3–28.5% 21.4–29.5%
Høyre 25.0% 24.9% 22.9–27.0% 22.4–27.6% 21.9–28.1% 21.0–29.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.9% 13.3–16.7% 12.9–17.2% 12.5–17.6% 11.8–18.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.3% 8.1–10.8% 7.7–11.2% 7.4–11.6% 6.9–12.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.3–8.8% 6.0–9.2% 5.8–9.6% 5.3–10.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.0–6.7% 3.8–7.0% 3.4–7.6%
Rødt 2.4% 4.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.2–6.3% 2.9–6.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.2–6.3% 2.9–6.8%
Venstre 4.4% 2.3% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.4% 1.4–3.6% 1.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–51 41–52 40–53 38–56
Høyre 45 43 39–48 37–50 37–51 36–53
Senterpartiet 19 27 22–33 21–33 21–35 20–36
Fremskrittspartiet 27 16 13–18 12–20 12–21 11–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 11–15 10–16 10–17 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–11 3–11 2–12 1–13
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–10 2–11 1–12
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–6

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.5%  
40 3% 98.9%  
41 5% 96%  
42 13% 92%  
43 3% 79%  
44 11% 76%  
45 16% 65% Median
46 11% 49%  
47 14% 38%  
48 4% 24%  
49 7% 20% Last Result
50 3% 13%  
51 4% 10%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.3% 1.5%  
56 0.7% 1.1%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.8% 99.5%  
37 5% 98.8%  
38 3% 94%  
39 3% 91%  
40 11% 88%  
41 7% 77%  
42 14% 69%  
43 9% 55% Median
44 10% 47%  
45 8% 36% Last Result
46 8% 28%  
47 8% 20%  
48 3% 12%  
49 3% 9%  
50 3% 6%  
51 1.3% 3%  
52 0.7% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.4%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
20 2% 99.5%  
21 3% 98%  
22 11% 95%  
23 3% 84%  
24 11% 81%  
25 11% 69%  
26 7% 59%  
27 10% 52% Median
28 6% 41%  
29 5% 35%  
30 6% 30%  
31 7% 24%  
32 4% 16%  
33 7% 12%  
34 2% 5%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 1.0%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.9%  
12 5% 98.8%  
13 10% 94%  
14 12% 84%  
15 14% 71%  
16 9% 58% Median
17 23% 48%  
18 16% 25%  
19 3% 9%  
20 2% 5%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.4% 0.8%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 7% 98%  
11 21% 91% Last Result
12 24% 71% Median
13 18% 47%  
14 14% 29%  
15 8% 15%  
16 4% 7%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.7%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100% Last Result
2 4% 99.4%  
3 0.2% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0.1% 95%  
7 13% 95%  
8 21% 82%  
9 30% 61% Median
10 18% 31%  
11 7% 12%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.6% 0.8%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100% Last Result
2 15% 99.3%  
3 0% 85%  
4 0% 85%  
5 0% 85%  
6 1.2% 85%  
7 24% 83%  
8 28% 60% Median
9 23% 32%  
10 7% 9%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 3% 98%  
3 15% 96%  
4 0% 81%  
5 0% 81%  
6 3% 81%  
7 17% 78%  
8 35% 61% Last Result, Median
9 14% 26%  
10 9% 13%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 54% 83% Median
2 29% 30%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0.1% 0.5%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 101 100% 96–106 95–108 93–110 91–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 101 100% 96–107 95–108 93–109 91–112
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 99.4% 89–100 88–101 87–103 84–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 94 99.3% 89–99 88–101 86–103 84–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98% 87–98 86–99 85–100 83–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 89 83% 83–94 82–96 80–97 77–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 86 61% 80–90 79–92 78–93 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 80 16% 74–85 73–87 72–88 68–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 76 2% 71–82 70–83 69–84 66–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0.1% 68–78 66–79 65–81 63–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 68 0% 62–73 61–74 60–76 57–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 60 0% 56–65 54–67 53–68 51–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 59 0% 54–64 53–66 51–67 50–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 54–63 53–64 52–66 50–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 52 0% 46–57 45–58 44–59 42–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 35 0% 30–41 28–43 27–44 25–46

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.5% 99.7%  
92 0.7% 99.2%  
93 2% 98.6%  
94 2% 97%  
95 2% 95%  
96 4% 93%  
97 9% 89%  
98 13% 80%  
99 3% 67%  
100 5% 64%  
101 11% 59% Median
102 8% 47%  
103 6% 39%  
104 9% 34%  
105 10% 25%  
106 5% 15%  
107 4% 10%  
108 2% 6%  
109 1.4% 4%  
110 1.2% 3%  
111 1.1% 2%  
112 0.3% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.7%  
92 0.7% 99.4%  
93 1.3% 98.6%  
94 1.2% 97%  
95 3% 96%  
96 10% 93%  
97 5% 84%  
98 6% 79%  
99 6% 74%  
100 13% 68%  
101 7% 55% Median
102 8% 47%  
103 8% 40%  
104 5% 31%  
105 10% 26%  
106 3% 16%  
107 7% 13%  
108 3% 6%  
109 0.9% 3%  
110 0.8% 2%  
111 0.4% 1.1%  
112 0.5% 0.7%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.2% 99.6%  
85 0.9% 99.4% Majority
86 0.9% 98.5%  
87 2% 98%  
88 6% 96%  
89 3% 90%  
90 3% 87%  
91 6% 85%  
92 6% 79%  
93 5% 72%  
94 13% 67%  
95 15% 54% Median
96 6% 40%  
97 9% 33%  
98 4% 24%  
99 6% 20%  
100 7% 14%  
101 3% 7%  
102 2% 4%  
103 0.7% 3%  
104 1.0% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.9%  
106 0.2% 0.5%  
107 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.5% 99.8%  
85 0.7% 99.3% Majority
86 1.1% 98.6%  
87 1.5% 97%  
88 4% 96%  
89 10% 92%  
90 4% 82%  
91 10% 78%  
92 5% 69%  
93 9% 64% Median
94 7% 55%  
95 12% 49%  
96 4% 37%  
97 12% 32%  
98 6% 20%  
99 8% 15%  
100 1.4% 7%  
101 2% 6%  
102 1.0% 4%  
103 1.3% 3%  
104 0.7% 1.4%  
105 0.3% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.2% 0.2%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.6%  
84 1.1% 98.9%  
85 1.5% 98% Majority
86 4% 96%  
87 8% 92%  
88 3% 84%  
89 5% 82%  
90 8% 76%  
91 10% 69%  
92 6% 59% Median
93 8% 53%  
94 11% 45%  
95 10% 34%  
96 3% 24%  
97 6% 21%  
98 8% 15%  
99 3% 8%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.4% 1.3%  
103 0.4% 0.8%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
78 0.4% 99.3%  
79 0.6% 98.9%  
80 1.1% 98%  
81 1.3% 97%  
82 5% 96%  
83 4% 91%  
84 3% 87%  
85 5% 83% Majority
86 17% 78%  
87 3% 61%  
88 4% 58%  
89 7% 54% Median
90 9% 47%  
91 11% 39%  
92 10% 28%  
93 7% 18%  
94 3% 11%  
95 2% 8%  
96 1.4% 5%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.8% 1.3%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 1.0% 99.1%  
78 1.5% 98%  
79 2% 97% Last Result
80 6% 94%  
81 7% 88%  
82 8% 81%  
83 5% 72%  
84 6% 67% Median
85 10% 61% Majority
86 12% 51%  
87 10% 39%  
88 7% 29%  
89 4% 22%  
90 9% 19%  
91 3% 9%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.8% 2%  
95 0.6% 1.4%  
96 0.5% 0.9%  
97 0.3% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 99.1%  
71 0.7% 98.5%  
72 1.5% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 5% 94%  
75 4% 89%  
76 3% 84% Last Result
77 14% 82%  
78 7% 67%  
79 6% 60%  
80 5% 54% Median
81 12% 49%  
82 8% 37%  
83 4% 29%  
84 9% 25%  
85 6% 16% Majority
86 4% 9%  
87 1.3% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.3% 2%  
90 0.8% 1.2%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.6%  
67 0.4% 99.2%  
68 1.0% 98.7%  
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 96%  
71 8% 92%  
72 6% 85%  
73 3% 79%  
74 10% 76%  
75 11% 66%  
76 8% 55%  
77 6% 47% Median
78 10% 41%  
79 8% 31%  
80 5% 24%  
81 3% 18%  
82 8% 16%  
83 4% 8%  
84 1.5% 4%  
85 1.1% 2% Majority
86 0.7% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.8%  
64 1.0% 99.3%  
65 1.3% 98%  
66 3% 97%  
67 4% 94%  
68 3% 90% Last Result
69 9% 88%  
70 11% 79%  
71 8% 68%  
72 7% 60% Median
73 8% 53%  
74 11% 45%  
75 10% 35%  
76 6% 25%  
77 6% 18%  
78 5% 13%  
79 3% 8%  
80 0.9% 4%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.3%  
59 0.8% 98.9%  
60 0.9% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 7% 94%  
63 3% 87%  
64 10% 84%  
65 5% 73%  
66 8% 69%  
67 8% 60%  
68 7% 53% Median
69 13% 45%  
70 6% 32%  
71 6% 26%  
72 5% 21%  
73 10% 16%  
74 3% 7%  
75 1.2% 4%  
76 1.3% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.4%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.9% 99.7%  
52 0.6% 98.8%  
53 3% 98%  
54 1.4% 95%  
55 3% 94%  
56 11% 91%  
57 4% 80%  
58 7% 77%  
59 11% 70%  
60 10% 59% Median
61 6% 49%  
62 13% 43%  
63 6% 30%  
64 7% 24%  
65 8% 17%  
66 2% 9%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.6% 1.0%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.6%  
51 2% 98.9%  
52 2% 97%  
53 1.4% 95%  
54 5% 94%  
55 8% 89%  
56 5% 81%  
57 6% 76%  
58 11% 70%  
59 12% 59% Median
60 11% 48%  
61 8% 36%  
62 6% 29%  
63 6% 23%  
64 8% 17%  
65 2% 9%  
66 2% 7%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.7% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.1%  
52 2% 98%  
53 5% 96%  
54 3% 90%  
55 10% 87%  
56 6% 78%  
57 13% 71% Median
58 17% 58%  
59 8% 41%  
60 6% 33% Last Result
61 6% 26%  
62 5% 21%  
63 8% 16%  
64 3% 8%  
65 1.4% 5%  
66 1.2% 3%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.2% 1.4%  
69 0.8% 1.2%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.6% 99.4%  
44 3% 98.8%  
45 2% 96%  
46 5% 94%  
47 5% 88%  
48 5% 83%  
49 8% 79%  
50 7% 71%  
51 13% 63%  
52 11% 51% Median
53 7% 40%  
54 5% 33%  
55 6% 28%  
56 12% 22%  
57 3% 10%  
58 2% 7%  
59 3% 5%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.3% 1.1% Last Result
62 0.3% 0.8%  
63 0.4% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 0.8% 99.2%  
27 1.1% 98%  
28 2% 97%  
29 3% 95%  
30 5% 92%  
31 10% 87%  
32 3% 77%  
33 9% 74%  
34 11% 65%  
35 7% 54% Last Result
36 7% 47% Median
37 8% 40%  
38 7% 32%  
39 5% 25%  
40 8% 21%  
41 3% 13%  
42 4% 10%  
43 3% 6%  
44 1.4% 3%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.8%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations