Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 4–10 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.6% 22.9–26.5% 22.4–27.0% 22.0–27.5% 21.2–28.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.2% 22.5–26.1% 22.0–26.6% 21.6–27.0% 20.8–28.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.8% 12.4–15.3% 12.1–15.8% 11.7–16.1% 11.1–16.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.9% 11.0–15.2% 10.4–16.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.3% 3.2–6.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Venstre 4.4% 2.8% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.7–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 44 41–48 39–49 38–50 36–52
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–52
Senterpartiet 19 25 22–28 21–29 20–29 19–31
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 21–27 20–27 19–28 18–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 3–10 2–11 2–11 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.2%  
38 2% 98.7%  
39 3% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 6% 92%  
42 15% 86%  
43 21% 71%  
44 13% 50% Median
45 7% 37% Last Result
46 13% 30%  
47 4% 17%  
48 5% 13%  
49 3% 8%  
50 3% 5%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 1.2% 1.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 7% 97%  
41 10% 90%  
42 7% 81%  
43 14% 74%  
44 8% 60%  
45 24% 53% Median
46 13% 29%  
47 8% 16%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 4% Last Result
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.6% 1.2%  
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
20 2% 99.5%  
21 4% 97%  
22 7% 93%  
23 16% 86%  
24 13% 71%  
25 15% 58% Median
26 15% 42%  
27 14% 27%  
28 7% 13%  
29 3% 5%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.6% 1.0%  
32 0.3% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.7%  
19 2% 99.0%  
20 3% 97%  
21 13% 94%  
22 14% 81%  
23 22% 67% Median
24 9% 45%  
25 17% 36%  
26 8% 19%  
27 8% 11% Last Result
28 1.4% 3%  
29 1.0% 1.3%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 6% 98%  
11 20% 92% Last Result
12 34% 71% Median
13 18% 37%  
14 11% 19%  
15 6% 8%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 7% 98%  
3 4% 91%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0% 87%  
7 5% 87%  
8 33% 82% Median
9 23% 49%  
10 21% 27%  
11 4% 6%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 4% 98%  
3 29% 93%  
4 0% 64%  
5 0% 64%  
6 0.3% 64%  
7 20% 64% Median
8 28% 44% Last Result
9 12% 16%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 56% 93% Median
3 0% 38%  
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 0% 38%  
7 19% 37%  
8 11% 19%  
9 7% 8%  
10 0.9% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 27% 98%  
2 68% 71% Median
3 0.1% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0.1% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 96–105 95–107 94–108 91–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 96 99.7% 90–100 89–101 87–102 86–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 94 99.2% 89–98 87–99 86–100 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 89 88% 84–94 82–95 81–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 66% 81–90 80–92 78–93 77–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 83 34% 79–88 77–89 76–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 84 35% 78–88 76–89 75–90 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 15% 77–86 75–87 74–89 72–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 75 0.8% 71–80 70–82 69–83 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 0.4% 70–80 69–80 68–82 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 66–74 64–76 63–77 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 65–73 63–74 62–76 61–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 64–72 62–74 61–75 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 52–60 51–61 50–62 49–64
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 52 0% 47–57 46–58 45–59 43–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–37 27–38 26–39 25–42

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.7%  
92 0.7% 99.2%  
93 0.9% 98.5%  
94 1.5% 98%  
95 2% 96%  
96 10% 94%  
97 6% 83%  
98 10% 77%  
99 8% 67%  
100 4% 59%  
101 14% 55% Median
102 14% 40%  
103 9% 26%  
104 6% 18%  
105 3% 12%  
106 3% 9%  
107 2% 6% Last Result
108 2% 4%  
109 1.1% 2%  
110 0.6% 1.0%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.7% Majority
86 0.3% 99.5%  
87 2% 99.2%  
88 1.3% 97% Last Result
89 5% 96%  
90 4% 91%  
91 5% 88%  
92 6% 83%  
93 6% 77%  
94 5% 71%  
95 9% 66%  
96 18% 56%  
97 9% 38% Median
98 4% 29%  
99 3% 25%  
100 15% 22%  
101 3% 7%  
102 2% 4%  
103 0.9% 2%  
104 0.6% 0.9%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 0.4% 99.2% Majority
86 2% 98.8%  
87 2% 97%  
88 4% 94%  
89 5% 91%  
90 6% 85%  
91 8% 79%  
92 6% 71% Median
93 7% 65%  
94 20% 58%  
95 9% 38%  
96 12% 29%  
97 5% 16%  
98 3% 11%  
99 3% 8%  
100 2% 5%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.8% 2%  
103 0.4% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 1.3% 99.5% Last Result
81 1.0% 98%  
82 3% 97%  
83 3% 94%  
84 4% 91%  
85 4% 88% Majority
86 6% 83%  
87 8% 78%  
88 5% 70%  
89 16% 66%  
90 6% 50% Median
91 7% 44%  
92 19% 37%  
93 7% 18%  
94 3% 11%  
95 4% 8%  
96 0.9% 4%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.7% 1.2%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.3% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 1.5% 98.9%  
79 2% 97%  
80 2% 95% Last Result
81 11% 93%  
82 4% 82%  
83 5% 79%  
84 7% 73% Median
85 16% 66% Majority
86 16% 51%  
87 5% 35%  
88 14% 30%  
89 4% 16%  
90 4% 12%  
91 3% 8%  
92 3% 5%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 0.8% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.3% 99.5%  
75 0.8% 99.2%  
76 1.0% 98%  
77 3% 97%  
78 3% 95%  
79 4% 92%  
80 4% 88%  
81 14% 84%  
82 5% 70%  
83 16% 65%  
84 16% 49% Median
85 7% 34% Majority
86 5% 27%  
87 4% 21%  
88 11% 18%  
89 2% 7% Last Result
90 2% 5%  
91 1.4% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.0%  
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.7%  
74 1.0% 99.3%  
75 0.9% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 4% 95% Last Result
78 6% 91%  
79 5% 85%  
80 6% 80%  
81 6% 74%  
82 8% 68%  
83 7% 60%  
84 19% 54%  
85 6% 35% Median, Majority
86 4% 28%  
87 5% 25%  
88 13% 20%  
89 3% 7%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.7% 1.4%  
92 0.3% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 1.4% 99.5%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 94%  
77 7% 91%  
78 4% 85%  
79 12% 81% Last Result
80 3% 68%  
81 16% 65%  
82 5% 48% Median
83 16% 43%  
84 13% 27%  
85 4% 15% Majority
86 4% 10%  
87 2% 7%  
88 1.3% 4%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.4% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 0.8% 99.3%  
68 1.0% 98%  
69 3% 98%  
70 3% 95%  
71 3% 92%  
72 5% 89%  
73 12% 84%  
74 9% 71%  
75 20% 62%  
76 7% 42% Median
77 6% 35%  
78 8% 29%  
79 6% 21%  
80 5% 15%  
81 4% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.4% 1.2%  
85 0.4% 0.8% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.6%  
67 0.8% 98.8%  
68 2% 98%  
69 5% 96%  
70 3% 91%  
71 4% 88%  
72 7% 84%  
73 7% 77%  
74 12% 70%  
75 10% 58%  
76 14% 47% Last Result
77 4% 33% Median
78 4% 29%  
79 8% 24%  
80 11% 16%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0.4% 1.3%  
84 0.5% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.5%  
62 0.5% 98.9%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 4% 95%  
66 12% 90%  
67 17% 78%  
68 5% 62%  
69 6% 56% Median
70 11% 50%  
71 14% 39%  
72 8% 26%  
73 5% 18%  
74 4% 13%  
75 3% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.1% 3%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.7% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.8%  
62 2% 98.9%  
63 2% 97%  
64 4% 95%  
65 4% 91%  
66 12% 87%  
67 7% 75%  
68 9% 69% Last Result
69 12% 60%  
70 10% 48% Median
71 14% 38%  
72 12% 24%  
73 4% 11%  
74 3% 8%  
75 1.3% 5%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.5% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.7% 99.6%  
60 0.5% 98.9%  
61 1.5% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 2% 95%  
64 14% 92%  
65 12% 78%  
66 10% 67%  
67 6% 57% Median
68 11% 51%  
69 11% 40%  
70 11% 29%  
71 5% 18%  
72 5% 13% Last Result
73 2% 8%  
74 4% 6%  
75 1.0% 3%  
76 0.2% 2%  
77 1.1% 1.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 4% 97%  
52 5% 93%  
53 5% 88%  
54 7% 83%  
55 8% 76%  
56 13% 68%  
57 20% 55% Median
58 13% 35%  
59 9% 22%  
60 5% 13% Last Result
61 5% 8%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.7%  
44 1.5% 99.5%  
45 1.4% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 5% 95%  
48 4% 90%  
49 11% 85%  
50 5% 74%  
51 7% 69%  
52 24% 62%  
53 9% 38% Median
54 7% 29%  
55 6% 22%  
56 7% 17%  
57 4% 10%  
58 2% 6%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.8% 1.4%  
61 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 2% 99.2%  
27 3% 97%  
28 4% 94%  
29 8% 90%  
30 9% 82%  
31 6% 73%  
32 15% 67%  
33 11% 52%  
34 6% 41% Median
35 10% 35% Last Result
36 4% 25%  
37 13% 21%  
38 4% 8%  
39 1.2% 4%  
40 0.9% 2%  
41 0.9% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.7%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations