Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 6–11 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Høyre 25.0% 23.0% 21.3–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.4% 13.0–15.9% 12.7–16.3% 12.3–16.7% 11.7–17.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 43–51 42–52 42–53 40–55
Høyre 45 41 38–45 37–47 36–47 34–49
Senterpartiet 19 26 24–31 22–32 22–33 20–34
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 16–22 16–22 15–22 14–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–11 8–12 7–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 2–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 1.2% 99.0%  
42 3% 98%  
43 6% 94%  
44 11% 88%  
45 10% 77%  
46 14% 67%  
47 8% 53% Median
48 20% 45%  
49 13% 25% Last Result
50 2% 13%  
51 5% 10%  
52 1.4% 5%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 0.6% 99.4%  
36 2% 98.8%  
37 4% 96%  
38 5% 92%  
39 14% 87%  
40 16% 72%  
41 18% 56% Median
42 8% 39%  
43 11% 31%  
44 8% 20%  
45 3% 13% Last Result
46 4% 9%  
47 4% 5%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 1.2% 99.2%  
22 3% 98%  
23 4% 95%  
24 7% 91%  
25 16% 84%  
26 22% 68% Median
27 15% 46%  
28 12% 31%  
29 4% 19%  
30 4% 15%  
31 6% 12%  
32 3% 6%  
33 1.1% 3%  
34 1.0% 1.5%  
35 0.2% 0.5%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 1.3% 99.7%  
15 2% 98%  
16 8% 96%  
17 10% 89%  
18 31% 78% Median
19 15% 47%  
20 15% 32%  
21 6% 18%  
22 9% 11%  
23 1.5% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.9%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.8%  
11 6% 98% Last Result
12 11% 92%  
13 25% 81%  
14 22% 56% Median
15 20% 35%  
16 10% 14%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.9% 1.1%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 1.2% 99.8%  
3 0.5% 98.7%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 3% 98%  
8 17% 95%  
9 26% 78%  
10 36% 53% Median
11 12% 17%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.9% 1.2%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 9% 95%  
3 45% 86% Median
4 0% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 0.5% 41%  
7 25% 41%  
8 11% 16% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100% Last Result
2 52% 95% Median
3 0% 43%  
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 2% 43%  
7 16% 41%  
8 20% 26%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.7% 1.0%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 76% 98% Median
3 1.3% 22%  
4 0% 20%  
5 0% 20%  
6 0.5% 20%  
7 11% 20%  
8 6% 9% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 101 100% 96–106 95–107 94–108 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 101 100% 96–106 95–107 94–107 90–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 97 99.9% 92–101 91–102 89–104 86–105
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 94 99.6% 90–100 89–101 88–102 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 92 97% 87–97 85–98 84–99 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 88 82% 82–91 81–93 80–94 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 81% 83–91 81–92 80–94 78–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 2% 73–82 72–84 71–84 69–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 77 2% 72–82 71–84 70–84 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0% 69–78 68–79 67–80 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 68 0% 63–73 62–74 61–75 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 63 0% 59–68 58–70 57–71 55–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 61 0% 56–64 56–66 55–67 53–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 59 0% 56–64 55–66 53–67 51–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 44–54 44–55 43–56 42–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 30–40 29–42 28–43 25–46

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.6%  
92 0.5% 99.2%  
93 0.7% 98.7%  
94 2% 98%  
95 3% 96%  
96 5% 94%  
97 6% 89%  
98 8% 83%  
99 8% 75% Median
100 7% 68%  
101 16% 60%  
102 10% 44%  
103 6% 35%  
104 7% 29%  
105 10% 22%  
106 4% 12%  
107 5% 8%  
108 2% 3%  
109 0.5% 0.9%  
110 0.2% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0% 99.9% Last Result
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.7%  
91 0.2% 99.3%  
92 0.4% 99.1%  
93 0.7% 98.6%  
94 1.1% 98%  
95 3% 97%  
96 4% 94%  
97 5% 90%  
98 6% 85%  
99 7% 79%  
100 9% 72% Median
101 15% 63%  
102 9% 48%  
103 7% 39%  
104 11% 32%  
105 3% 21%  
106 11% 18%  
107 4% 7%  
108 0.9% 2%  
109 0.6% 2%  
110 0.6% 0.9%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.7%  
87 0.3% 99.4%  
88 0.7% 99.1%  
89 1.1% 98%  
90 1.1% 97%  
91 4% 96%  
92 4% 92%  
93 5% 88%  
94 9% 83%  
95 8% 74%  
96 9% 66%  
97 13% 57% Median
98 9% 44%  
99 19% 35%  
100 4% 17%  
101 6% 13%  
102 3% 7%  
103 0.6% 3%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.5% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.6% Majority
86 0.4% 99.1%  
87 1.1% 98.7%  
88 1.2% 98%  
89 2% 96%  
90 11% 94% Median
91 6% 83%  
92 9% 77%  
93 7% 69%  
94 17% 61%  
95 9% 44%  
96 6% 35%  
97 10% 30%  
98 4% 19%  
99 5% 15%  
100 3% 11%  
101 3% 7%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.0% 2%  
104 0.5% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.4% 99.5%  
83 1.0% 99.2%  
84 0.8% 98%  
85 3% 97% Majority
86 3% 94%  
87 6% 91%  
88 7% 85%  
89 9% 78% Median
90 4% 70%  
91 15% 65%  
92 7% 51%  
93 13% 44%  
94 4% 31%  
95 9% 27%  
96 6% 18%  
97 3% 12%  
98 6% 9%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.5% 1.1%  
101 0.3% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
78 1.1% 99.5%  
79 0.5% 98%  
80 1.2% 98%  
81 3% 97%  
82 5% 94%  
83 3% 88%  
84 3% 85%  
85 8% 82% Majority
86 6% 74% Median
87 14% 68%  
88 13% 54%  
89 8% 41%  
90 6% 33%  
91 18% 27%  
92 3% 9%  
93 4% 7%  
94 1.4% 3%  
95 0.5% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.2%  
97 0.5% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.6%  
79 0.7% 99.2% Last Result
80 1.2% 98.5%  
81 3% 97%  
82 2% 95%  
83 5% 93%  
84 6% 87%  
85 12% 81% Majority
86 8% 70%  
87 9% 61% Median
88 12% 52%  
89 15% 40%  
90 9% 24%  
91 7% 16%  
92 4% 9%  
93 1.2% 5%  
94 1.1% 3%  
95 2% 2%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.3% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.6%  
70 1.3% 98.8%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 7% 94%  
74 3% 87%  
75 7% 84%  
76 6% 77% Last Result, Median
77 7% 71%  
78 17% 64%  
79 6% 47%  
80 12% 41%  
81 15% 28%  
82 4% 13%  
83 3% 9%  
84 4% 6%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.1%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.6% 99.4%  
70 2% 98.8%  
71 6% 97%  
72 3% 91%  
73 6% 88%  
74 9% 81% Median
75 4% 73%  
76 13% 68%  
77 7% 55%  
78 15% 49%  
79 4% 34%  
80 9% 30%  
81 7% 21%  
82 6% 14%  
83 3% 8%  
84 3% 5%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.6%  
66 1.0% 99.3%  
67 1.3% 98%  
68 3% 97% Last Result
69 4% 93%  
70 7% 89%  
71 10% 82%  
72 9% 72%  
73 10% 63% Median
74 16% 53%  
75 11% 37%  
76 9% 26%  
77 7% 18%  
78 4% 10%  
79 2% 6%  
80 1.1% 4%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.6% 99.5%  
61 2% 99.0%  
62 5% 97%  
63 4% 92%  
64 10% 88% Median
65 7% 78%  
66 6% 71%  
67 10% 64%  
68 16% 55%  
69 7% 39%  
70 7% 31%  
71 8% 24%  
72 6% 16%  
73 5% 11%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.6% 2%  
77 0.4% 1.1%  
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.9% 99.6%  
56 0.7% 98.7%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 96%  
59 7% 93%  
60 9% 86%  
61 19% 77% Median
62 6% 58%  
63 12% 53%  
64 9% 41%  
65 6% 32%  
66 9% 26%  
67 4% 16%  
68 4% 12%  
69 3% 8%  
70 1.4% 5%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.7% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.3% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.6% 99.5%  
54 1.1% 98.9%  
55 3% 98%  
56 5% 95%  
57 6% 90%  
58 9% 83%  
59 10% 75%  
60 14% 64% Last Result
61 7% 51% Median
62 14% 44%  
63 14% 29%  
64 8% 16%  
65 2% 8%  
66 2% 6%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.7%  
52 0.5% 99.4%  
53 2% 99.0%  
54 1.4% 97%  
55 4% 96%  
56 5% 91%  
57 10% 87%  
58 9% 77%  
59 19% 67% Median
60 7% 48%  
61 10% 41%  
62 7% 31%  
63 6% 24%  
64 9% 18%  
65 2% 8%  
66 3% 6%  
67 1.2% 3%  
68 0.8% 2%  
69 1.2% 1.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 1.5% 98.9%  
44 11% 97%  
45 8% 86%  
46 4% 78% Median
47 6% 74%  
48 9% 68%  
49 11% 58%  
50 15% 47%  
51 9% 32%  
52 7% 23%  
53 4% 15%  
54 5% 11%  
55 2% 6%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.1%  
59 0.1% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.6% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.4%  
27 0.7% 98.9%  
28 2% 98%  
29 2% 97%  
30 6% 95%  
31 14% 89% Median
32 9% 75%  
33 10% 66%  
34 8% 56%  
35 16% 48% Last Result
36 6% 32%  
37 6% 26%  
38 4% 20%  
39 3% 16%  
40 5% 13%  
41 4% 9%  
42 2% 5%  
43 1.4% 3%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.9%  
46 0.2% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.4%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations