Opinion Poll by Sentio for Amedia and Nettavisen, 11–16 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.7% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.1% 21.4–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Venstre 4.4% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 53 49–56 47–58 47–59 45–61
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 39–46 38–47 37–48 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–26 20–27 20–28 18–29
Senterpartiet 19 23 21–26 20–27 19–27 18–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–17 12–18 12–18 11–20
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 3 1–9 1–9 1–10 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–8
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
46 0.8% 99.3%  
47 5% 98%  
48 3% 94%  
49 6% 91%  
50 6% 85%  
51 12% 78%  
52 11% 66%  
53 20% 56% Median
54 9% 36%  
55 12% 27%  
56 6% 15%  
57 2% 9%  
58 4% 7%  
59 1.3% 3%  
60 0.6% 2%  
61 0.8% 1.1%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 2% 97%  
39 5% 95%  
40 9% 90%  
41 20% 81%  
42 13% 61% Median
43 11% 49%  
44 10% 38%  
45 10% 27%  
46 10% 17%  
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.7% 2% Last Result
50 0.4% 0.8%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 1.4% 99.5%  
20 5% 98%  
21 11% 93%  
22 13% 82%  
23 15% 69%  
24 21% 53% Median
25 13% 32%  
26 12% 19%  
27 4% 7% Last Result
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 1.1%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.1% Last Result
20 5% 97%  
21 19% 92%  
22 16% 73%  
23 19% 57% Median
24 13% 38%  
25 14% 25%  
26 4% 11%  
27 5% 7%  
28 1.0% 2%  
29 0.8% 1.0%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8% Last Result
12 7% 98%  
13 16% 91%  
14 22% 75%  
15 23% 53% Median
16 12% 30%  
17 10% 17%  
18 5% 7%  
19 1.4% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 37% 97%  
3 0% 60%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 11% 60% Median
8 30% 49%  
9 14% 19%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100% Last Result
2 25% 85%  
3 18% 60% Median
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 0% 42%  
7 7% 42%  
8 21% 35%  
9 11% 14%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 53% 73% Median
2 9% 20%  
3 10% 11%  
4 0% 1.2%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0.5% 1.2%  
8 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 51% 68% Median
2 16% 17%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 96–107 95–108 95–109 92–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 91 96% 86–95 85–96 84–97 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 86 66% 82–91 80–92 79–93 78–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 87 69% 81–90 80–92 78–93 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 85 55% 81–90 79–91 78–92 76–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 82 31% 79–88 77–89 76–91 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 13% 76–85 75–86 74–88 72–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 78 4% 74–83 73–84 72–85 69–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 77 2% 72–82 72–83 70–84 69–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 77 1.4% 72–81 70–82 69–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 71 0% 67–77 66–78 65–79 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 63–71 62–73 60–74 59–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 62–69 61–71 60–73 58–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–62 52–63 51–64 50–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 55 0% 51–59 49–60 48–61 47–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 25 0% 22–28 21–29 21–30 19–32

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.4% 99.7%  
93 0.7% 99.3%  
94 0.9% 98.7%  
95 3% 98%  
96 6% 94%  
97 10% 89%  
98 7% 79%  
99 11% 72%  
100 5% 61%  
101 7% 56%  
102 13% 50% Median
103 10% 37%  
104 6% 27%  
105 5% 21%  
106 4% 17%  
107 6% 12% Last Result
108 3% 6%  
109 2% 4%  
110 0.8% 1.2%  
111 0.2% 0.5%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
82 1.4% 99.5%  
83 0.6% 98%  
84 2% 98%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 6% 93%  
87 8% 88%  
88 4% 80%  
89 8% 77%  
90 13% 69% Median
91 16% 56%  
92 8% 40%  
93 12% 32%  
94 4% 20%  
95 7% 16%  
96 6% 9%  
97 1.0% 3%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.3%  
100 0.6% 0.7%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.4% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.5%  
79 2% 99.1%  
80 2% 97%  
81 2% 95%  
82 8% 92%  
83 8% 84%  
84 10% 76% Median
85 11% 66% Majority
86 10% 55%  
87 9% 45%  
88 8% 37% Last Result
89 13% 29%  
90 5% 16%  
91 2% 12%  
92 7% 10%  
93 1.3% 3%  
94 0.4% 2%  
95 0.7% 1.2%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 2% 99.4%  
79 2% 97%  
80 2% 96% Last Result
81 5% 93%  
82 4% 89%  
83 6% 85%  
84 10% 79%  
85 13% 69% Majority
86 6% 56%  
87 9% 51% Median
88 20% 41%  
89 7% 22%  
90 5% 15%  
91 4% 10%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 0.6% 99.4%  
78 1.5% 98.8%  
79 4% 97%  
80 3% 94% Last Result
81 7% 90%  
82 5% 83%  
83 14% 78% Median
84 9% 64%  
85 10% 55% Majority
86 7% 44%  
87 11% 37%  
88 10% 26%  
89 5% 16%  
90 3% 11%  
91 5% 8%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.3% 1.3%  
94 0.6% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.4% 99.7%  
75 1.0% 99.3%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 96%  
78 4% 94%  
79 5% 90%  
80 7% 85%  
81 20% 78%  
82 9% 59% Median
83 6% 49%  
84 13% 44%  
85 10% 31% Majority
86 6% 21%  
87 4% 15%  
88 5% 11%  
89 2% 7% Last Result
90 2% 4%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.4% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.8% 99.6%  
73 0.8% 98.8%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 96%  
76 6% 93%  
77 6% 87%  
78 9% 81%  
79 13% 72% Last Result
80 15% 59% Median
81 8% 44%  
82 9% 36%  
83 10% 27%  
84 4% 18%  
85 5% 13% Majority
86 3% 8%  
87 1.1% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.6% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.3%  
71 1.0% 98.7%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 6% 97%  
74 7% 91%  
75 4% 84%  
76 12% 80%  
77 8% 68%  
78 16% 60%  
79 13% 44% Median
80 8% 31%  
81 4% 23%  
82 8% 20%  
83 6% 12%  
84 2% 7%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 0.6% 2%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.9% 99.5%  
70 1.2% 98.6%  
71 1.1% 97%  
72 7% 96%  
73 6% 90%  
74 5% 83%  
75 12% 78%  
76 7% 67%  
77 14% 60%  
78 18% 46% Median
79 5% 28%  
80 4% 23% Last Result
81 7% 19%  
82 7% 12%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.2% 2% Majority
86 1.0% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 1.0% 99.5%  
69 1.0% 98.5%  
70 3% 97%  
71 2% 95%  
72 7% 92% Last Result
73 7% 85%  
74 7% 78%  
75 11% 70%  
76 8% 60%  
77 23% 52% Median
78 6% 29%  
79 5% 23%  
80 6% 19%  
81 6% 12%  
82 2% 6%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.2% 2%  
85 0.9% 1.4% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 1.0% 99.7%  
64 0.7% 98.6%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 96%  
67 8% 92%  
68 3% 85%  
69 11% 82% Median
70 12% 71%  
71 13% 58%  
72 11% 46%  
73 6% 35%  
74 8% 29%  
75 5% 21%  
76 5% 16%  
77 5% 10% Last Result
78 2% 6%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.5% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.7%  
60 2% 99.0%  
61 1.2% 97%  
62 5% 96%  
63 8% 92%  
64 8% 84%  
65 10% 76%  
66 13% 66% Median
67 14% 54%  
68 10% 40%  
69 10% 29%  
70 8% 19%  
71 3% 11%  
72 2% 8%  
73 2% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.6% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.8% 99.8%  
59 1.4% 99.0%  
60 2% 98%  
61 4% 96%  
62 8% 92%  
63 7% 83%  
64 13% 76%  
65 8% 63% Median
66 17% 55%  
67 10% 38%  
68 11% 28% Last Result
69 7% 17%  
70 3% 10%  
71 3% 7%  
72 0.9% 4%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.6% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 99.7%  
51 2% 98.7%  
52 3% 97%  
53 4% 94%  
54 7% 90%  
55 13% 83%  
56 10% 70%  
57 14% 60% Median
58 9% 45%  
59 14% 37%  
60 4% 22% Last Result
61 6% 18%  
62 6% 12%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.7% 1.4%  
66 0.5% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 3% 99.3%  
49 1.5% 96%  
50 3% 95%  
51 7% 92%  
52 9% 85%  
53 11% 75%  
54 14% 65%  
55 16% 51% Median
56 7% 35%  
57 13% 28%  
58 4% 16%  
59 5% 12%  
60 3% 6%  
61 1.3% 4% Last Result
62 1.1% 2%  
63 1.1% 1.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 1.0% 99.3%  
21 3% 98%  
22 15% 95%  
23 9% 80%  
24 12% 71%  
25 16% 59% Median
26 19% 43%  
27 9% 24%  
28 7% 15%  
29 4% 8%  
30 3% 4%  
31 1.0% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.4%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0.1% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations