Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI for Dagbladet, 17–19 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.8% 22.8–26.9% 22.2–27.5% 21.7–28.1% 20.8–29.1%
Høyre 25.0% 24.3% 22.4–26.5% 21.8–27.1% 21.3–27.6% 20.4–28.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.8% 12.3–15.6% 11.9–16.1% 11.5–16.6% 10.8–17.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.7% 10.3–13.4% 9.9–13.9% 9.6–14.3% 8.9–15.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.1% 6.0–8.5% 5.7–8.9% 5.5–9.3% 5.0–10.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.7% 4.8–7.0% 4.5–7.4% 4.3–7.7% 3.8–8.4%
Rødt 2.4% 4.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.8% 3.1–6.1% 2.7–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.6% 1.8–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–49 40–50 40–51 38–53
Høyre 45 44 39–48 38–49 37–50 36–52
Senterpartiet 19 25 22–28 21–30 20–30 19–33
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–25 17–26 17–26 15–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–15 10–16 9–16 8–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–12 8–13 7–13 2–15
Rødt 1 7 2–10 2–10 2–11 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–9 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 0–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.8%  
38 0.4% 99.6%  
39 0.6% 99.2%  
40 7% 98.6%  
41 7% 91%  
42 10% 84%  
43 14% 74%  
44 19% 60% Median
45 10% 41%  
46 5% 31%  
47 10% 27%  
48 6% 17%  
49 4% 11% Last Result
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.6% 1.1%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.5%  
37 3% 98%  
38 3% 95%  
39 5% 92%  
40 7% 87%  
41 9% 80%  
42 9% 71%  
43 10% 62%  
44 10% 52% Median
45 16% 42% Last Result
46 4% 26%  
47 10% 22%  
48 4% 11%  
49 3% 7%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.6% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.6% Last Result
20 2% 98%  
21 3% 96%  
22 12% 93%  
23 12% 81%  
24 14% 69%  
25 9% 55% Median
26 19% 45%  
27 12% 27%  
28 6% 15%  
29 2% 9%  
30 4% 7%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.5% 1.1%  
33 0.2% 0.6%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 3% 98%  
18 8% 94%  
19 9% 86%  
20 18% 77%  
21 17% 59% Median
22 11% 41%  
23 13% 30%  
24 6% 16%  
25 5% 11%  
26 5% 6%  
27 0.9% 1.3% Last Result
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.5% 100%  
9 3% 99.5%  
10 9% 96%  
11 17% 87% Last Result
12 27% 70% Median
13 20% 43%  
14 9% 23%  
15 8% 14%  
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 1.4% 99.9%  
3 0.2% 98.5%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 1.3% 98%  
8 10% 97%  
9 17% 87%  
10 25% 70% Median
11 22% 45%  
12 16% 23%  
13 5% 7%  
14 1.0% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 26% 98%  
3 0% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0.3% 72%  
7 25% 71% Median
8 20% 46%  
9 16% 26%  
10 6% 11%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.7% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 25% 98.7%  
2 9% 73%  
3 39% 64% Median
4 0% 25%  
5 0% 25%  
6 0.3% 25%  
7 16% 25%  
8 6% 9% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 19% 98%  
2 70% 80% Median
3 0.1% 9%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0.6% 9%  
7 6% 9%  
8 2% 3% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 98 100% 94–104 92–105 90–106 88–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 96 99.8% 91–101 89–102 89–104 87–106
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 96 99.8% 89–101 88–102 88–103 85–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 92 98.8% 87–97 86–98 85–100 82–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 82% 83–94 82–95 81–97 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 43% 78–88 77–90 76–91 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 25% 77–87 76–88 75–90 72–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 81 18% 75–86 74–87 72–88 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0.4% 68–79 66–80 66–82 64–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 71 0% 65–75 64–77 63–79 60–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 65–74 64–75 63–76 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 62–71 60–73 59–75 56–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 60–69 58–70 57–72 54–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 54–62 52–63 51–64 49–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 44–55 44–55 42–56 40–60
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 25–37 25–38 25–39 23–42

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 0.6% 99.4%  
90 2% 98.8%  
91 1.0% 97%  
92 2% 96%  
93 3% 94%  
94 6% 91%  
95 7% 85%  
96 8% 78%  
97 11% 70%  
98 12% 58% Median
99 9% 46%  
100 6% 37%  
101 7% 31%  
102 6% 24%  
103 4% 18%  
104 5% 14%  
105 5% 9%  
106 2% 4%  
107 0.7% 2%  
108 0.6% 1.4%  
109 0.5% 0.8%  
110 0.2% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.4% 99.5%  
88 1.5% 99.1% Last Result
89 4% 98%  
90 3% 94%  
91 8% 90%  
92 5% 82%  
93 8% 77%  
94 11% 68% Median
95 6% 57%  
96 9% 52%  
97 13% 43%  
98 8% 30%  
99 4% 22%  
100 7% 18%  
101 2% 11%  
102 4% 9%  
103 2% 5%  
104 1.4% 3%  
105 0.9% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.7%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.4% 99.8% Majority
86 0.6% 99.4%  
87 1.3% 98.8%  
88 5% 98%  
89 3% 93%  
90 2% 90%  
91 3% 88%  
92 9% 85%  
93 11% 76%  
94 9% 65%  
95 6% 56% Median
96 8% 50%  
97 11% 43%  
98 8% 32%  
99 4% 24%  
100 7% 20%  
101 6% 13%  
102 4% 7%  
103 2% 4%  
104 1.1% 2%  
105 0.4% 0.8%  
106 0.3% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 0.4% 99.4%  
84 0.3% 99.1%  
85 2% 98.8% Majority
86 3% 97%  
87 9% 94%  
88 5% 86%  
89 5% 80%  
90 13% 75%  
91 11% 62% Median
92 8% 52%  
93 8% 44%  
94 8% 36%  
95 6% 28%  
96 3% 21%  
97 10% 18%  
98 3% 8%  
99 2% 5%  
100 0.8% 3%  
101 0.6% 2%  
102 0.6% 2%  
103 0.7% 1.0%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.4%  
80 1.5% 99.0% Last Result
81 2% 98%  
82 3% 95%  
83 4% 92%  
84 7% 89%  
85 5% 82% Majority
86 8% 76%  
87 11% 69%  
88 13% 57% Median
89 10% 44%  
90 5% 34%  
91 4% 29%  
92 8% 25%  
93 6% 17%  
94 4% 11%  
95 3% 6%  
96 1.1% 4%  
97 1.2% 3%  
98 0.5% 1.3%  
99 0.4% 0.8%  
100 0.4% 0.5%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.5%  
75 0.5% 98.9%  
76 3% 98%  
77 4% 95% Last Result
78 3% 91%  
79 8% 88%  
80 12% 80%  
81 5% 67%  
82 6% 62% Median
83 8% 56%  
84 6% 48%  
85 12% 43% Majority
86 7% 30%  
87 10% 23%  
88 4% 13%  
89 3% 10%  
90 3% 7%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.5%  
74 1.5% 99.3%  
75 1.5% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 4% 94%  
78 6% 90%  
79 11% 84% Last Result
80 11% 73%  
81 13% 62% Median
82 9% 48%  
83 7% 40%  
84 8% 33%  
85 7% 25% Majority
86 7% 19%  
87 5% 12%  
88 3% 6%  
89 1.0% 4%  
90 0.6% 3%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.1%  
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.5%  
71 0.5% 99.2%  
72 1.2% 98.6%  
73 1.1% 97%  
74 3% 96%  
75 4% 94%  
76 6% 89%  
77 8% 83%  
78 4% 75%  
79 5% 71%  
80 10% 66% Median
81 13% 56%  
82 11% 43%  
83 8% 31%  
84 5% 24%  
85 7% 18% Majority
86 4% 11%  
87 3% 8%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.5% 2% Last Result
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.7% 99.7%  
65 1.2% 99.0%  
66 3% 98%  
67 2% 95%  
68 12% 93%  
69 5% 81%  
70 5% 76%  
71 6% 71%  
72 8% 65% Median
73 13% 56%  
74 11% 43%  
75 5% 32%  
76 7% 27% Last Result
77 5% 20%  
78 5% 15%  
79 4% 10%  
80 2% 6%  
81 1.4% 4%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.5% 1.1%  
84 0.1% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.4% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 0.6% 99.2%  
62 0.7% 98.6%  
63 2% 98%  
64 5% 96%  
65 5% 91%  
66 4% 86%  
67 6% 82%  
68 7% 76%  
69 6% 69%  
70 9% 63% Median
71 12% 54%  
72 11% 42%  
73 8% 30%  
74 7% 22%  
75 6% 15%  
76 3% 9%  
77 2% 6%  
78 1.0% 4%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.6% 1.2%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 1.1% 99.2%  
63 3% 98%  
64 2% 95%  
65 8% 93%  
66 9% 85%  
67 11% 76%  
68 5% 66% Last Result
69 8% 61% Median
70 14% 53%  
71 11% 39%  
72 8% 28%  
73 7% 20%  
74 5% 13%  
75 4% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.0%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.4%  
58 0.8% 98.7%  
59 1.3% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 1.4% 94%  
62 4% 93%  
63 8% 89%  
64 6% 81%  
65 13% 75%  
66 5% 62%  
67 7% 57% Median
68 12% 50%  
69 11% 38%  
70 10% 26%  
71 8% 17%  
72 3% 9%  
73 1.2% 6%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.3% 3%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 0.6% 99.3%  
56 1.0% 98.7%  
57 1.0% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 3% 93%  
60 3% 90%  
61 8% 87%  
62 6% 78%  
63 12% 72%  
64 6% 60%  
65 6% 53% Median
66 11% 47%  
67 10% 36%  
68 11% 26%  
69 7% 15%  
70 3% 8%  
71 1.2% 5%  
72 2% 4% Last Result
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.0%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 0.9% 99.3%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 3% 93%  
54 13% 90%  
55 15% 77%  
56 12% 62% Median
57 12% 50%  
58 11% 38%  
59 6% 27%  
60 5% 21% Last Result
61 5% 16%  
62 4% 10%  
63 3% 6%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.7% 99.4%  
42 1.2% 98.7%  
43 2% 97%  
44 6% 96%  
45 8% 90%  
46 6% 81%  
47 10% 76%  
48 13% 65%  
49 5% 52% Median
50 10% 47%  
51 6% 38%  
52 11% 32%  
53 5% 21%  
54 6% 16%  
55 7% 10%  
56 1.2% 3%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.4% 1.3%  
59 0.2% 0.9%  
60 0.3% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 99.8%  
24 1.2% 98.9%  
25 9% 98%  
26 5% 88%  
27 7% 83%  
28 10% 76%  
29 9% 66%  
30 3% 57% Median
31 15% 54%  
32 11% 40%  
33 4% 29%  
34 4% 24%  
35 7% 21% Last Result
36 3% 13%  
37 4% 10%  
38 2% 6%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.6% 2%  
41 0.4% 1.3%  
42 0.4% 0.8%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations