Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 17–23 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.8% 25.0–28.7% 24.5–29.2% 24.1–29.7% 23.2–30.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.9% 22.2–25.8% 21.7–26.3% 21.3–26.8% 20.5–27.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.0% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–15.9% 11.9–16.3% 11.3–17.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.7% 8.5–11.0% 8.2–11.4% 7.9–11.7% 7.4–12.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.5% 6.3–9.8% 5.9–10.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Venstre 4.4% 3.2% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 44–53 43–54 42–55 40–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–47 40–48 39–49 38–51
Senterpartiet 19 25 21–30 21–31 20–32 19–33
Fremskrittspartiet 27 17 15–20 14–20 13–21 12–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 9 7–10 2–11 2–11 1–12
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–7 1–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.6%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 3% 98%  
43 4% 95%  
44 5% 91%  
45 4% 86% Last Result
46 9% 82%  
47 11% 73%  
48 7% 62%  
49 14% 55% Median
50 12% 42%  
51 13% 30%  
52 5% 16%  
53 4% 11%  
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 1.0% 99.5%  
39 2% 98.6%  
40 12% 96%  
41 14% 84%  
42 14% 71%  
43 8% 57% Median
44 12% 48%  
45 16% 36%  
46 8% 21%  
47 8% 13%  
48 2% 5%  
49 2% 3% Last Result
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.9% Last Result
20 2% 98.7%  
21 8% 96%  
22 9% 88%  
23 11% 80%  
24 15% 69%  
25 13% 54% Median
26 15% 40%  
27 6% 26%  
28 6% 19%  
29 2% 13%  
30 4% 11%  
31 4% 7%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.5% 0.9%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 2% 98%  
14 4% 96%  
15 11% 92%  
16 20% 80%  
17 17% 60% Median
18 19% 43%  
19 11% 23%  
20 9% 12%  
21 2% 4%  
22 0.9% 1.4%  
23 0.3% 0.5%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.8%  
11 8% 98% Last Result
12 14% 90%  
13 24% 76%  
14 19% 53% Median
15 15% 34%  
16 9% 18%  
17 6% 9%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.8%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100% Last Result
2 5% 99.0%  
3 0.5% 94%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0.1% 93%  
7 10% 93%  
8 27% 84%  
9 31% 57% Median
10 17% 26%  
11 7% 9%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.4% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 30% 98%  
3 0% 67%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 0.4% 67%  
7 22% 67% Median
8 26% 45%  
9 16% 20%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 10% 99.5%  
2 10% 90%  
3 42% 80% Median
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 2% 38%  
7 16% 35%  
8 16% 19% Last Result
9 3% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 21% 99.3%  
2 70% 79% Median
3 0.1% 9%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 1.2% 9%  
7 5% 8%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 97 100% 92–102 91–103 90–105 88–107
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 97 100% 93–102 92–103 90–105 89–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 94 99.7% 90–102 89–103 88–103 85–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 95% 86–97 85–99 83–100 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 82% 83–93 83–95 81–96 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 25% 77–88 76–90 75–90 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 81 24% 76–87 76–88 74–89 72–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 80 18% 76–86 74–86 73–88 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0.3% 68–78 67–80 66–81 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 72 0% 67–77 66–78 64–79 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 64–74 63–75 62–75 61–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 63–73 61–73 60–74 59–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 66 0% 61–70 59–71 58–72 55–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–61 53–62 51–63 50–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 55 0% 50–60 48–62 47–63 46–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 27–37 26–40 26–41 24–43

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.8%  
88 0.4% 99.6%  
89 0.8% 99.2%  
90 3% 98%  
91 4% 95%  
92 2% 91%  
93 13% 89%  
94 7% 76%  
95 8% 69%  
96 8% 61%  
97 14% 53%  
98 7% 39% Median
99 11% 32%  
100 6% 22%  
101 4% 16%  
102 4% 11%  
103 3% 7%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.7% 3%  
106 0.3% 2%  
107 1.3% 2%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 2% 99.5%  
90 0.7% 98%  
91 1.4% 97%  
92 3% 96%  
93 6% 93%  
94 9% 87%  
95 9% 78%  
96 14% 69% Median
97 7% 55%  
98 11% 48%  
99 8% 37%  
100 7% 28%  
101 8% 21%  
102 7% 13%  
103 2% 6%  
104 1.0% 4%  
105 1.1% 3%  
106 0.7% 2%  
107 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.7% Majority
86 0.3% 99.4%  
87 0.6% 99.1%  
88 2% 98.6% Last Result
89 5% 97%  
90 4% 91%  
91 4% 87%  
92 11% 84%  
93 13% 72%  
94 13% 60% Median
95 6% 47%  
96 7% 41%  
97 7% 34%  
98 5% 27%  
99 5% 22%  
100 4% 16%  
101 2% 13%  
102 3% 10%  
103 5% 7%  
104 1.0% 2%  
105 0.7% 1.1%  
106 0.1% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 1.0% 99.6%  
83 2% 98.6%  
84 1.5% 97%  
85 5% 95% Majority
86 6% 90%  
87 6% 84%  
88 7% 78%  
89 11% 71%  
90 13% 60%  
91 12% 47% Median
92 6% 35%  
93 6% 28%  
94 4% 23%  
95 6% 19%  
96 3% 13%  
97 2% 10%  
98 2% 8%  
99 3% 7%  
100 3% 4%  
101 0.6% 1.2%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.3% 0.3%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.7% 99.7%  
80 0.6% 99.0% Last Result
81 1.4% 98%  
82 1.2% 97%  
83 8% 96%  
84 7% 88%  
85 9% 82% Majority
86 6% 73%  
87 9% 67%  
88 7% 58%  
89 11% 51% Median
90 14% 40%  
91 8% 26%  
92 5% 18%  
93 4% 13%  
94 2% 8%  
95 2% 6%  
96 1.5% 4%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 1.4% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 2% 99.3%  
76 4% 97%  
77 4% 93%  
78 7% 89%  
79 7% 83% Last Result
80 8% 75%  
81 16% 68%  
82 12% 52% Median
83 7% 40%  
84 8% 33%  
85 4% 25% Majority
86 4% 21%  
87 4% 17%  
88 5% 13%  
89 2% 8%  
90 4% 6%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.1%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.3% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 1.2% 99.1%  
74 1.4% 98%  
75 0.9% 96%  
76 7% 96%  
77 8% 89% Last Result
78 7% 81%  
79 14% 74%  
80 7% 59% Median
81 9% 52%  
82 5% 43%  
83 9% 39%  
84 6% 30%  
85 5% 24% Majority
86 5% 18%  
87 6% 14%  
88 3% 8%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.4% 1.5%  
91 0.4% 1.1%  
92 0.3% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 1.4% 99.4%  
72 0.5% 98%  
73 1.5% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 4% 92%  
77 5% 87%  
78 8% 82%  
79 14% 74%  
80 11% 60% Median
81 7% 49%  
82 9% 42%  
83 6% 33%  
84 9% 27%  
85 7% 18% Majority
86 8% 12%  
87 1.2% 4%  
88 1.4% 3%  
89 0.6% 2% Last Result
90 0.7% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 0.8% 99.2%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 6% 93%  
69 8% 87%  
70 12% 79%  
71 8% 68% Median
72 10% 60%  
73 8% 50%  
74 8% 42%  
75 8% 34%  
76 5% 26% Last Result
77 9% 21%  
78 5% 12%  
79 2% 7%  
80 1.3% 5%  
81 3% 4%  
82 0.3% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 1.3% 99.7%  
63 0.3% 98%  
64 0.7% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 3% 96%  
67 4% 93%  
68 4% 89%  
69 6% 84%  
70 11% 78%  
71 7% 68% Median
72 14% 61%  
73 8% 47%  
74 8% 39%  
75 7% 31%  
76 13% 24%  
77 2% 11%  
78 4% 9%  
79 3% 5%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 2% 99.6%  
62 2% 98%  
63 4% 95%  
64 6% 91%  
65 6% 86%  
66 6% 80%  
67 18% 73%  
68 11% 56% Last Result, Median
69 9% 45%  
70 9% 36%  
71 8% 27%  
72 2% 19%  
73 6% 16%  
74 5% 11%  
75 4% 6%  
76 0.7% 2%  
77 0.3% 1.1%  
78 0.4% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 2% 99.5%  
60 0.7% 98%  
61 2% 97%  
62 2% 95%  
63 4% 93%  
64 8% 89%  
65 6% 81%  
66 6% 75%  
67 12% 69%  
68 14% 58% Median
69 14% 43%  
70 6% 30%  
71 7% 23%  
72 5% 16%  
73 7% 11%  
74 1.4% 4%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.8%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.4%  
57 2% 99.2%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 94%  
61 6% 92%  
62 7% 86%  
63 8% 79%  
64 5% 71%  
65 6% 66%  
66 19% 60% Median
67 14% 41%  
68 4% 27%  
69 7% 23%  
70 5% 15%  
71 7% 10%  
72 0.9% 3% Last Result
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.5%  
52 1.3% 97%  
53 7% 96%  
54 6% 89%  
55 16% 83%  
56 8% 67%  
57 15% 59% Median
58 13% 44%  
59 11% 31%  
60 5% 20% Last Result
61 6% 14%  
62 4% 9%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.0%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.6%  
47 2% 99.3%  
48 3% 97%  
49 2% 94%  
50 5% 92%  
51 7% 87%  
52 4% 81%  
53 11% 76%  
54 11% 65% Median
55 7% 54%  
56 10% 47%  
57 7% 37%  
58 8% 30%  
59 7% 23%  
60 7% 16%  
61 3% 9% Last Result
62 2% 5%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.5% 1.2%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.8%  
25 1.0% 99.0%  
26 5% 98%  
27 6% 93%  
28 8% 87%  
29 8% 79%  
30 16% 70% Median
31 8% 55%  
32 10% 46%  
33 6% 37%  
34 8% 30%  
35 6% 23% Last Result
36 4% 16%  
37 4% 12%  
38 2% 8%  
39 1.1% 7%  
40 2% 5%  
41 0.7% 3%  
42 1.4% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.9%  
44 0.1% 0.4%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations