Opinion Poll by Norstat for Aftenposten and NRK, 24–31 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.3% 26.5–30.2% 25.9–30.8% 25.5–31.2% 24.6–32.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.0% 22.3–25.9% 21.8–26.4% 21.4–26.9% 20.6–27.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.2% 10.9–13.7% 10.5–14.1% 10.2–14.4% 9.7–15.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.4% 10.2–12.9% 9.9–13.3% 9.6–13.6% 9.0–14.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.2% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.1–10.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.6–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 51 48–54 47–55 46–57 44–60
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–47 40–48 40–49 38–51
Senterpartiet 19 22 20–26 19–26 19–27 18–29
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 19–23 18–23 17–24 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–17 12–18 12–19 11–20
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 2–10 1–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
46 3% 98%  
47 4% 95%  
48 9% 92%  
49 15% 83%  
50 15% 68%  
51 12% 53% Median
52 19% 41%  
53 10% 22%  
54 5% 12%  
55 3% 7%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.8% 3%  
58 0.5% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.2%  
60 0.3% 0.7%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 1.5% 99.2%  
40 10% 98%  
41 9% 88%  
42 9% 79%  
43 15% 70%  
44 19% 56% Median
45 9% 36%  
46 11% 27%  
47 7% 16%  
48 5% 10%  
49 3% 5% Last Result
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.7% 1.0%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 5% 98% Last Result
20 11% 93%  
21 12% 82%  
22 28% 70% Median
23 14% 43%  
24 11% 29%  
25 7% 17%  
26 7% 10%  
27 1.4% 3%  
28 1.1% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.7%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 0.9% 99.6%  
17 2% 98.7%  
18 5% 97%  
19 10% 92%  
20 19% 82%  
21 29% 63% Median
22 23% 34%  
23 6% 11%  
24 2% 5%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.6% 0.9%  
27 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
12 4% 98.8%  
13 12% 95%  
14 13% 83%  
15 30% 69% Median
16 17% 40%  
17 17% 23%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 13% 96%  
3 3% 83%  
4 0% 80%  
5 0% 80%  
6 0.8% 80%  
7 10% 79%  
8 32% 68% Median
9 25% 36%  
10 10% 11%  
11 0.8% 0.8%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100% Last Result
2 57% 89% Median
3 0% 32%  
4 0% 32%  
5 0% 32%  
6 0% 32%  
7 12% 32%  
8 12% 20%  
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 69% 95% Median
3 0% 26%  
4 0% 26%  
5 0% 26%  
6 0% 26%  
7 7% 26%  
8 14% 19% Last Result
9 5% 5%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 57% 86% Median
2 14% 28%  
3 13% 15%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.7% 2%  
8 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 99 100% 94–104 93–105 91–106 89–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 92 97% 88–97 86–98 84–99 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 91 92% 85–95 84–96 82–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 89 88% 84–93 82–94 80–95 78–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 54% 81–90 80–92 78–93 76–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 84 46% 79–88 77–89 76–91 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 19% 77–86 76–88 75–90 73–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 77 3% 72–81 71–83 70–85 68–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 75 0.4% 71–80 69–82 69–83 67–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 75 0.2% 70–80 69–81 67–82 66–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0.1% 68–75 67–76 66–79 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 64–72 62–74 61–75 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 62–71 61–72 60–73 59–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 51–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 55 0% 52–61 51–62 50–63 48–65
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 27 0% 24–32 23–34 22–34 21–36

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.5% 99.8%  
90 1.2% 99.3%  
91 2% 98%  
92 0.8% 96%  
93 4% 95%  
94 3% 91%  
95 3% 88%  
96 5% 85%  
97 11% 80% Median
98 9% 69%  
99 23% 60%  
100 7% 37%  
101 6% 31%  
102 5% 24%  
103 7% 19%  
104 6% 13%  
105 3% 7%  
106 2% 4%  
107 0.5% 2% Last Result
108 0.4% 1.3%  
109 0.5% 0.9%  
110 0.1% 0.4%  
111 0.2% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
82 0.2% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 99.5%  
84 2% 99.1%  
85 1.5% 97% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 4% 94%  
88 5% 90%  
89 5% 86%  
90 7% 80%  
91 7% 73% Median
92 20% 67%  
93 7% 47%  
94 5% 39%  
95 16% 34%  
96 8% 18%  
97 2% 10%  
98 4% 8%  
99 2% 4%  
100 1.1% 2%  
101 0.7% 0.8%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.8% 99.7%  
81 0.9% 99.0%  
82 0.8% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 3% 95%  
85 4% 92% Majority
86 6% 89%  
87 5% 82%  
88 10% 77% Last Result
89 8% 67%  
90 8% 59% Median
91 18% 51%  
92 10% 32%  
93 3% 23%  
94 7% 20%  
95 7% 13%  
96 4% 6%  
97 1.1% 2%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 0.9% 99.3%  
80 1.1% 98% Last Result
81 1.2% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 3% 94%  
84 3% 91%  
85 7% 88% Majority
86 7% 80%  
87 7% 74%  
88 11% 67%  
89 8% 55% Median
90 17% 47%  
91 8% 30%  
92 3% 22%  
93 12% 18%  
94 3% 6%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.5% 0.9%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.5% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.4%  
78 1.4% 98.8%  
79 1.0% 97%  
80 3% 96% Last Result
81 6% 93%  
82 8% 87%  
83 15% 79% Median
84 11% 64%  
85 9% 54% Majority
86 9% 45%  
87 10% 36%  
88 9% 26%  
89 3% 17%  
90 3% 13%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 5%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.5% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.5% 99.6%  
74 0.8% 99.2%  
75 0.7% 98%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 95%  
78 3% 94%  
79 3% 90%  
80 3% 87%  
81 9% 83%  
82 10% 74%  
83 9% 64% Median
84 9% 55%  
85 11% 46% Majority
86 15% 36%  
87 8% 21%  
88 6% 13%  
89 3% 7% Last Result
90 1.0% 4%  
91 1.4% 3%  
92 0.6% 1.2%  
93 0.5% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.8% 99.6%  
74 1.1% 98.8%  
75 1.2% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 5% 94%  
78 7% 89%  
79 8% 81% Last Result
80 8% 73%  
81 20% 65% Median
82 11% 46%  
83 8% 35%  
84 7% 27%  
85 8% 19% Majority
86 4% 11%  
87 2% 7%  
88 0.7% 5%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.2% 3%  
91 1.2% 2%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.8%  
69 1.2% 99.2%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 96%  
72 2% 92%  
73 8% 90%  
74 16% 82%  
75 5% 66% Median
76 7% 61%  
77 20% 53%  
78 7% 33%  
79 7% 27%  
80 5% 20%  
81 5% 14%  
82 4% 10%  
83 2% 6%  
84 1.5% 4%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.4% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.5%  
88 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 1.0% 99.7%  
68 1.1% 98.7%  
69 3% 98%  
70 4% 95%  
71 5% 91%  
72 9% 85%  
73 12% 76%  
74 7% 64% Median
75 8% 58%  
76 18% 50%  
77 8% 31%  
78 5% 23%  
79 6% 19%  
80 4% 13% Last Result
81 4% 9%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.2% 3%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.6%  
67 2% 99.0%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 95%  
70 5% 92%  
71 8% 87%  
72 6% 79%  
73 5% 73%  
74 12% 68%  
75 10% 56% Median
76 16% 46%  
77 7% 30% Last Result
78 5% 23%  
79 7% 18%  
80 4% 11%  
81 4% 7%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.6% 1.1%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 1.2% 99.5%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 96%  
68 7% 92%  
69 7% 85%  
70 13% 78%  
71 16% 65%  
72 11% 50% Last Result, Median
73 8% 39%  
74 19% 31%  
75 6% 12%  
76 1.2% 6%  
77 0.8% 5%  
78 1.2% 4%  
79 0.5% 3%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.5%  
61 2% 99.2%  
62 2% 97%  
63 2% 95%  
64 5% 93%  
65 11% 87%  
66 15% 76%  
67 16% 61% Median
68 9% 45%  
69 10% 36%  
70 4% 26%  
71 6% 22%  
72 7% 16%  
73 3% 9%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.4% 3%  
76 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
77 0.7% 0.9%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.7% 99.7%  
60 2% 99.0%  
61 3% 97%  
62 4% 93%  
63 4% 89%  
64 15% 86%  
65 15% 71%  
66 14% 57% Median
67 10% 43%  
68 8% 32% Last Result
69 5% 24%  
70 8% 19%  
71 4% 11%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 1.0% 1.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.3%  
53 2% 98.9%  
54 3% 97%  
55 5% 94%  
56 10% 89%  
57 10% 80%  
58 8% 69%  
59 17% 62% Median
60 14% 45% Last Result
61 13% 31%  
62 7% 17%  
63 4% 11%  
64 3% 7%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.7%  
49 1.2% 98.8%  
50 2% 98%  
51 5% 96%  
52 10% 91%  
53 11% 81%  
54 8% 70% Median
55 16% 61%  
56 9% 45%  
57 9% 37%  
58 6% 27%  
59 5% 22%  
60 4% 16%  
61 6% 12% Last Result
62 3% 7%  
63 1.4% 3%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.6% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.9% 99.6%  
22 2% 98.8%  
23 6% 97%  
24 8% 91%  
25 23% 83% Median
26 7% 60%  
27 12% 52%  
28 8% 41%  
29 7% 33%  
30 6% 26%  
31 4% 20%  
32 8% 16%  
33 3% 8%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.5% 2% Last Result
36 0.4% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations