Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse for VG, 26–31 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.6% 21.4–28.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 44 41–48 40–49 38–50 36–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–48 40–49 40–50 39–52
Senterpartiet 19 28 24–31 23–33 22–33 21–34
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–24 17–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 11–14 10–15 10–16 9–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 2–10 1–11 1–11
Venstre 8 6 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–10
Rødt 1 7 2–8 1–9 1–10 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 0.9% 99.5%  
38 1.4% 98.6%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 96%  
41 9% 93%  
42 10% 84%  
43 20% 74%  
44 13% 54% Median
45 13% 41% Last Result
46 8% 28%  
47 6% 20%  
48 7% 13%  
49 3% 6%  
50 1.2% 3%  
51 0.5% 2%  
52 1.0% 1.5%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 1.2% 99.6%  
40 10% 98%  
41 15% 89%  
42 13% 74%  
43 9% 60%  
44 16% 52% Median
45 8% 36%  
46 9% 28%  
47 6% 18%  
48 5% 12%  
49 3% 7% Last Result
50 1.1% 4%  
51 1.0% 2%  
52 1.0% 1.5%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.7% 99.7%  
22 2% 99.0%  
23 4% 97%  
24 4% 93%  
25 10% 89%  
26 14% 79%  
27 11% 65%  
28 16% 54% Median
29 13% 38%  
30 8% 25%  
31 7% 16%  
32 4% 9%  
33 4% 6%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 1.2% 99.8%  
17 4% 98.5%  
18 9% 95%  
19 10% 86%  
20 21% 76%  
21 18% 56% Median
22 15% 38%  
23 8% 23%  
24 11% 15%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.8% 1.2%  
27 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 2% 99.7%  
10 7% 98%  
11 21% 90% Last Result
12 24% 69% Median
13 23% 45%  
14 16% 23%  
15 4% 7%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.7% 0.8%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 12% 97%  
3 3% 85%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0.2% 82%  
7 13% 81%  
8 31% 68% Median
9 25% 37%  
10 10% 12%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 47% 99.5%  
3 2% 52%  
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 0.2% 50% Median
7 12% 50%  
8 28% 38% Last Result
9 7% 11%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100% Last Result
2 42% 94%  
3 0% 52%  
4 0% 52%  
5 0% 52%  
6 0.4% 52%  
7 20% 52% Median
8 22% 32%  
9 7% 10%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 31% 98.7%  
2 13% 68%  
3 43% 55% Median
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 1.0% 12%  
7 5% 11%  
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 101 100% 96–105 94–107 92–108 91–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 96 99.6% 91–101 89–103 88–103 85–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 94 99.1% 89–99 87–101 86–101 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 92 94% 86–97 84–98 83–98 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 87% 84–94 82–96 81–97 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 42% 79–89 78–90 77–91 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 82 23% 77–87 75–89 74–90 72–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 80 13% 75–85 73–87 72–88 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.4% 69–80 69–81 67–83 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 73 0.4% 68–78 66–80 66–81 64–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 67–76 66–78 65–79 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 65–75 64–76 63–78 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 65 0% 61–70 60–71 58–72 55–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 52–61 51–62 51–63 49–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 52 0% 46–57 46–59 44–60 44–62
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 35 0% 30–41 29–42 28–43 26–46

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 2% 99.6%  
92 0.7% 98%  
93 0.8% 97%  
94 3% 96%  
95 3% 94%  
96 3% 91%  
97 9% 88%  
98 8% 78%  
99 10% 70%  
100 9% 60%  
101 8% 51%  
102 11% 43% Median
103 10% 32%  
104 7% 22%  
105 6% 14%  
106 2% 8%  
107 3% 6% Last Result
108 1.4% 3%  
109 1.0% 2%  
110 0.5% 1.0%  
111 0.1% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.2% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.6% Majority
86 0.5% 99.5%  
87 0.9% 98.9%  
88 1.5% 98%  
89 3% 97%  
90 3% 94%  
91 3% 90%  
92 3% 87%  
93 8% 84%  
94 10% 76%  
95 11% 66%  
96 9% 55%  
97 6% 46%  
98 8% 40%  
99 11% 32% Median
100 9% 22%  
101 4% 12%  
102 3% 8%  
103 3% 5%  
104 0.7% 2%  
105 1.2% 2%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.7% 99.8%  
85 1.0% 99.1% Majority
86 1.1% 98%  
87 3% 97%  
88 2% 94% Last Result
89 6% 92%  
90 4% 86%  
91 9% 81%  
92 8% 73%  
93 12% 65%  
94 7% 53%  
95 13% 45% Median
96 5% 32%  
97 9% 27%  
98 4% 18%  
99 4% 14%  
100 3% 10%  
101 4% 6%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.5% 1.0%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
81 0.5% 99.3%  
82 1.2% 98.8%  
83 1.3% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 2% 94% Majority
86 6% 92%  
87 5% 86%  
88 8% 81%  
89 6% 73%  
90 6% 67%  
91 11% 61%  
92 14% 50% Median
93 7% 37%  
94 11% 30%  
95 4% 19%  
96 4% 14%  
97 4% 11%  
98 4% 7%  
99 1.5% 2%  
100 0.4% 0.7%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.8% 99.6%  
80 0.7% 98.8% Last Result
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 2% 94%  
84 5% 92%  
85 9% 87% Majority
86 9% 78%  
87 6% 69%  
88 11% 63%  
89 7% 52%  
90 10% 44%  
91 7% 34% Median
92 8% 27%  
93 6% 19%  
94 4% 13%  
95 3% 9%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 2%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.7%  
76 2% 99.1%  
77 2% 98%  
78 4% 95%  
79 6% 91% Last Result
80 4% 85%  
81 6% 81%  
82 12% 75%  
83 9% 64%  
84 13% 55% Median
85 11% 42% Majority
86 7% 31%  
87 5% 24%  
88 5% 19%  
89 6% 13%  
90 4% 8%  
91 1.0% 3%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.3% 2%  
94 0.7% 1.2%  
95 0% 0.5%  
96 0.4% 0.5%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.6%  
73 0.8% 98.9%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 96%  
76 2% 94%  
77 7% 91% Last Result
78 6% 85%  
79 10% 79%  
80 7% 69%  
81 10% 62%  
82 17% 52%  
83 5% 35% Median
84 6% 29%  
85 7% 23% Majority
86 4% 16%  
87 5% 12%  
88 2% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 3%  
91 1.0% 1.4%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.6%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 95%  
74 3% 94%  
75 4% 91%  
76 6% 87%  
77 8% 81%  
78 7% 73%  
79 10% 66%  
80 7% 56%  
81 11% 48%  
82 6% 37% Median
83 9% 31%  
84 9% 22%  
85 5% 13% Majority
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.7% 2% Last Result
90 0.8% 1.2%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.3%  
67 1.3% 98.5%  
68 2% 97%  
69 7% 96%  
70 3% 89%  
71 7% 85%  
72 13% 79%  
73 12% 65%  
74 11% 54%  
75 7% 43% Median
76 7% 35% Last Result
77 7% 29%  
78 6% 21%  
79 5% 15%  
80 5% 10%  
81 2% 5%  
82 0.4% 3%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.8% 1.2%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 1.2% 99.6%  
65 0.7% 98%  
66 3% 98%  
67 3% 95%  
68 4% 92%  
69 9% 87%  
70 11% 78%  
71 8% 67%  
72 6% 60%  
73 9% 54%  
74 11% 45% Median
75 10% 34%  
76 8% 24%  
77 3% 16%  
78 3% 13%  
79 3% 10%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.5% 3%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.0%  
84 0.1% 0.5%  
85 0.3% 0.4% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.9% 99.8%  
64 0.8% 98.8%  
65 2% 98%  
66 5% 96%  
67 4% 91%  
68 6% 87% Last Result
69 10% 80%  
70 8% 71%  
71 13% 62%  
72 12% 50% Median
73 11% 38%  
74 8% 27%  
75 4% 19%  
76 5% 14%  
77 3% 9%  
78 3% 6%  
79 0.6% 3%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.1% 0.7%  
82 0.5% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.9% 99.3%  
63 3% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 5% 94%  
66 7% 89%  
67 9% 82%  
68 10% 73%  
69 10% 63%  
70 7% 54%  
71 9% 46% Median
72 11% 37%  
73 8% 26%  
74 7% 18%  
75 4% 12%  
76 3% 8%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.4% 3%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.2%  
57 0.6% 98.8%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 6% 93%  
62 8% 87%  
63 10% 80%  
64 15% 69%  
65 14% 54% Median
66 11% 40%  
67 8% 29%  
68 4% 21%  
69 6% 17%  
70 5% 11%  
71 2% 6%  
72 1.4% 3% Last Result
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.9%  
50 1.2% 99.1%  
51 4% 98%  
52 10% 94%  
53 13% 85%  
54 8% 72%  
55 10% 64%  
56 11% 54% Median
57 9% 43%  
58 7% 34%  
59 4% 26%  
60 9% 22% Last Result
61 6% 13%  
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.1%  
66 0.6% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 0.7% 97%  
46 7% 97%  
47 6% 90%  
48 7% 84%  
49 6% 77%  
50 8% 71%  
51 9% 63%  
52 9% 54%  
53 8% 45% Median
54 12% 37%  
55 8% 24%  
56 3% 16%  
57 4% 13%  
58 3% 9%  
59 3% 6%  
60 0.7% 3%  
61 0.9% 2% Last Result
62 1.0% 1.5%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.4%  
28 1.4% 98.8%  
29 5% 97%  
30 3% 92%  
31 4% 89%  
32 10% 85%  
33 7% 75%  
34 13% 69%  
35 8% 56% Last Result
36 6% 48%  
37 11% 41% Median
38 4% 31%  
39 11% 26%  
40 4% 15%  
41 4% 11%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.0% 2%  
45 0.4% 1.4%  
46 0.8% 1.0%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations