Opinion Poll by Norfakta for Klassekampen and Nationen, 1–2 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.6% 23.7–27.7% 23.2–28.3% 22.7–28.8% 21.8–29.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.7% 22.8–26.8% 22.3–27.4% 21.8–27.9% 21.0–28.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.5% 12.0–15.2% 11.6–15.6% 11.2–16.0% 10.6–16.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.8% 11.4–14.5% 11.0–15.0% 10.7–15.4% 10.0–16.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.1% 7.0–9.5% 6.6–9.9% 6.4–10.2% 5.9–10.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.7% 2.6–6.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.4%
Venstre 4.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 46 43–50 42–52 40–53 38–55
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 41–49 40–50 40–51 38–53
Senterpartiet 19 25 22–28 21–28 20–29 19–31
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–27 20–28 19–29 18–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–17 12–18 12–19 11–20
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 2–10 1–11 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.8%  
39 0.4% 99.3%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 2% 97%  
42 5% 95%  
43 6% 90%  
44 7% 84%  
45 11% 76% Last Result
46 19% 65% Median
47 11% 46%  
48 12% 35%  
49 10% 24%  
50 4% 14%  
51 3% 9%  
52 3% 6%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.7% 1.2%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 1.0% 99.4%  
40 4% 98%  
41 9% 94%  
42 8% 85%  
43 9% 76%  
44 11% 68%  
45 13% 57% Median
46 20% 44%  
47 6% 24%  
48 6% 17%  
49 5% 11% Last Result
50 2% 6%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.6% 0.9%  
54 0.1% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 1.3% 99.7% Last Result
20 2% 98%  
21 3% 96%  
22 7% 93%  
23 14% 86%  
24 18% 72%  
25 11% 54% Median
26 18% 43%  
27 14% 25%  
28 7% 11%  
29 2% 4%  
30 1.3% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.8%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.8%  
19 2% 98%  
20 5% 97%  
21 13% 92%  
22 21% 79%  
23 8% 58%  
24 16% 50% Median
25 11% 34%  
26 10% 24%  
27 6% 14% Last Result
28 4% 7%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.6% Last Result
12 6% 98%  
13 16% 92%  
14 16% 76%  
15 22% 59% Median
16 17% 37%  
17 13% 20%  
18 5% 7%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.8% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 4% 97%  
3 35% 93%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 0% 58%  
7 7% 58%  
8 27% 51% Last Result, Median
9 14% 25%  
10 8% 11%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 40% 99.7% Last Result
2 33% 60% Median
3 2% 27%  
4 1.1% 25%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0% 24%  
7 10% 24%  
8 10% 14%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 25% 100% Last Result
2 55% 75% Median
3 0% 19%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 4% 19%  
8 12% 15%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 20% 98%  
2 68% 78% Median
3 0.5% 10%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0% 9%  
7 4% 9%  
8 4% 5% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 103 100% 98–108 97–110 95–111 92–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 94 98.9% 89–98 88–100 86–102 84–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 90 92% 86–96 83–98 82–99 81–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 78% 82–93 81–95 80–96 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 76% 82–93 81–95 80–96 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 57% 79–90 78–91 77–93 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 81 24% 76–87 74–88 73–89 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 78 6% 74–84 73–85 72–87 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 79 8% 73–83 71–86 70–87 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 1.5% 72–81 70–82 68–83 66–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0.1% 68–78 66–78 64–79 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 65–74 64–76 63–77 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 65–75 64–76 63–77 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 55–64 55–66 53–67 52–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 55 0% 50–60 49–61 47–62 45–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–38 27–39 26–39 24–42

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.5% 99.5%  
94 0.7% 99.0%  
95 1.4% 98%  
96 1.2% 97%  
97 5% 96%  
98 3% 91%  
99 6% 89%  
100 3% 82%  
101 6% 79%  
102 5% 73%  
103 19% 68%  
104 10% 48%  
105 14% 38% Median
106 9% 24%  
107 4% 15% Last Result
108 2% 11%  
109 1.2% 9%  
110 4% 8%  
111 2% 4%  
112 1.0% 1.3%  
113 0.2% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.8%  
84 0.7% 99.6%  
85 0.3% 98.9% Majority
86 1.4% 98.5%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 95% Last Result
89 6% 93%  
90 10% 87%  
91 5% 77%  
92 11% 71%  
93 8% 60%  
94 7% 51%  
95 8% 45% Median
96 6% 37%  
97 14% 31%  
98 8% 17%  
99 2% 9%  
100 3% 6%  
101 1.1% 4%  
102 0.8% 3%  
103 1.3% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.6%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.5% Last Result
82 1.5% 98.9%  
83 4% 97%  
84 1.4% 93%  
85 2% 92% Majority
86 3% 90%  
87 4% 87%  
88 8% 83%  
89 14% 75% Median
90 14% 62%  
91 14% 48%  
92 8% 34%  
93 5% 26%  
94 4% 21%  
95 3% 17%  
96 5% 14%  
97 2% 9%  
98 4% 7%  
99 1.2% 3%  
100 0.5% 1.4%  
101 0.5% 0.9%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.7%  
79 0.7% 99.1%  
80 2% 98% Last Result
81 5% 96%  
82 4% 91%  
83 5% 87%  
84 4% 82%  
85 4% 78% Majority
86 6% 74%  
87 14% 69% Median
88 12% 55%  
89 11% 43%  
90 11% 32%  
91 6% 21%  
92 4% 14%  
93 2% 11%  
94 3% 9%  
95 2% 5%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.4% 1.2%  
98 0.4% 0.8%  
99 0.1% 0.4%  
100 0.3% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.5% 99.7%  
79 0.9% 99.2%  
80 2% 98% Last Result
81 3% 96%  
82 6% 93%  
83 7% 87%  
84 5% 80%  
85 4% 76% Majority
86 7% 72%  
87 9% 65% Median
88 15% 56%  
89 12% 41%  
90 10% 29%  
91 4% 19%  
92 4% 15%  
93 2% 10%  
94 2% 9%  
95 3% 7%  
96 3% 4%  
97 0.5% 1.2%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.5%  
76 0.8% 98.9%  
77 1.2% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 5% 94% Last Result
80 6% 89%  
81 11% 84%  
82 6% 73%  
83 5% 67%  
84 5% 62%  
85 7% 57% Median, Majority
86 15% 49%  
87 11% 35%  
88 9% 24%  
89 5% 15%  
90 5% 10%  
91 1.3% 5%  
92 0.9% 4%  
93 2% 3%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.7%  
72 0.5% 99.3%  
73 3% 98.8%  
74 3% 96%  
75 2% 93%  
76 2% 91%  
77 4% 90%  
78 4% 85%  
79 10% 81%  
80 12% 71%  
81 15% 59%  
82 9% 44% Median
83 7% 35%  
84 4% 28%  
85 5% 24% Majority
86 7% 20%  
87 6% 13%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 4% Last Result
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.6% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.2%  
71 0.9% 98.7%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 4% 94%  
75 8% 90%  
76 12% 82%  
77 15% 70% Last Result
78 8% 55%  
79 5% 47%  
80 5% 42% Median
81 8% 37%  
82 7% 29%  
83 7% 21%  
84 8% 14%  
85 1.3% 6% Majority
86 1.4% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 0.5% 99.1%  
70 1.2% 98.6%  
71 4% 97%  
72 2% 93%  
73 5% 91%  
74 3% 86%  
75 4% 83%  
76 5% 79%  
77 8% 74%  
78 14% 66%  
79 14% 52%  
80 14% 38% Median
81 8% 25%  
82 4% 17%  
83 3% 13%  
84 2% 10%  
85 1.4% 8% Majority
86 4% 7%  
87 1.5% 3%  
88 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.6%  
67 0.7% 99.2%  
68 1.1% 98.5%  
69 1.1% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 3% 94%  
72 4% 91%  
73 6% 87%  
74 16% 81%  
75 18% 65%  
76 11% 47% Last Result
77 8% 35%  
78 5% 28% Median
79 4% 23%  
80 8% 19%  
81 1.3% 11%  
82 6% 10%  
83 1.5% 4%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.5% Majority
86 0.6% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.7% 99.6%  
64 2% 98.9%  
65 2% 97%  
66 1.2% 95%  
67 4% 94%  
68 6% 91%  
69 6% 85%  
70 15% 79%  
71 9% 64%  
72 10% 55% Median
73 7% 44%  
74 4% 38%  
75 15% 34%  
76 4% 19%  
77 5% 15%  
78 5% 10%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.8% 2% Last Result
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 0.9% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 8% 94%  
66 9% 85%  
67 6% 77%  
68 6% 70% Last Result
69 10% 64%  
70 7% 54% Median
71 5% 47%  
72 23% 42%  
73 8% 19%  
74 3% 10%  
75 2% 7%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 3%  
78 1.3% 2%  
79 0.2% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.7% 99.5%  
62 1.2% 98.9%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 4% 93%  
66 6% 89%  
67 7% 83%  
68 16% 77%  
69 9% 60%  
70 11% 51% Median
71 6% 40%  
72 3% 33% Last Result
73 8% 30%  
74 10% 22%  
75 3% 12%  
76 6% 9%  
77 0.8% 3%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.1%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.9% 99.6%  
53 1.3% 98.7%  
54 2% 97%  
55 6% 95%  
56 7% 90%  
57 12% 83%  
58 5% 71%  
59 10% 66%  
60 14% 55% Last Result, Median
61 8% 42%  
62 15% 33%  
63 7% 18%  
64 3% 11%  
65 2% 8%  
66 2% 6%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.6% 0.9%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 0.8% 99.4%  
47 2% 98.6%  
48 1.0% 97%  
49 4% 96%  
50 5% 91%  
51 8% 86%  
52 7% 78%  
53 10% 71%  
54 4% 61%  
55 9% 57%  
56 11% 47% Median
57 12% 36%  
58 7% 25%  
59 7% 17%  
60 4% 10%  
61 2% 6% Last Result
62 2% 4%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.9% 1.4%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.7%  
25 1.0% 99.2%  
26 2% 98%  
27 1.2% 96%  
28 3% 95%  
29 7% 91%  
30 4% 85%  
31 14% 81%  
32 7% 67%  
33 14% 60%  
34 7% 47%  
35 11% 40% Last Result, Median
36 11% 29%  
37 6% 18%  
38 6% 12%  
39 3% 6%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.5% 1.2%  
42 0.3% 0.7%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations