Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco for Avisenes Nyhetsbyrå, Dagsavisen and FriFagbevegelse, 1–7 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.0% 25.2–28.9% 24.7–29.4% 24.3–29.9% 23.4–30.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 19.9% 18.3–21.6% 17.9–22.1% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.8–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.3% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.5–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.5–9.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.2%
Rødt 2.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
Venstre 4.4% 2.5% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.4–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 43–52 43–53 42–54 40–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 35 32–40 31–40 31–41 29–42
Senterpartiet 19 30 26–35 25–36 23–36 22–37
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 15–21 14–21 14–22 13–24
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 10–17
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–14 9–15 8–16
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 1.4% 99.2%  
42 2% 98%  
43 7% 96%  
44 13% 89%  
45 6% 75% Last Result
46 7% 69%  
47 10% 62%  
48 14% 52% Median
49 11% 38%  
50 9% 27%  
51 6% 17%  
52 5% 12%  
53 3% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.2% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.6% 100%  
30 1.2% 99.4%  
31 7% 98%  
32 5% 91%  
33 13% 87%  
34 13% 73%  
35 16% 61% Median
36 11% 45%  
37 10% 34%  
38 6% 24%  
39 6% 17%  
40 7% 11%  
41 2% 4%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.2% 99.7%  
23 0.9% 98%  
24 1.2% 97%  
25 2% 96%  
26 5% 95%  
27 4% 90%  
28 14% 86%  
29 12% 72%  
30 11% 60% Median
31 11% 49%  
32 9% 38%  
33 10% 29%  
34 9% 19%  
35 4% 10%  
36 5% 6%  
37 0.8% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.7%  
14 4% 98.7%  
15 9% 94%  
16 8% 86%  
17 11% 77%  
18 30% 66% Median
19 12% 36%  
20 14% 25%  
21 7% 11%  
22 2% 4%  
23 0.8% 1.4%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 3% 99.6%  
11 11% 97%  
12 24% 86%  
13 24% 62% Median
14 24% 38%  
15 7% 15%  
16 5% 7%  
17 1.5% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.5% 100%  
9 4% 99.5%  
10 16% 96%  
11 21% 80% Last Result
12 21% 59% Median
13 21% 39%  
14 13% 17%  
15 3% 5%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100% Last Result
2 20% 99.3%  
3 0% 80%  
4 0% 80%  
5 0% 80%  
6 0.3% 80%  
7 22% 79%  
8 39% 57% Median
9 13% 19%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 12% 99.8%  
2 12% 87%  
3 33% 75% Median
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 1.3% 42%  
7 21% 41%  
8 16% 20% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 62% 90% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0.2% 0.5%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 102 100% 98–106 96–108 95–109 93–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 81 98 100% 92–103 91–104 90–105 87–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 96 99.9% 91–100 89–101 88–103 85–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 80 91 93% 86–96 84–97 83–98 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 56% 79–90 78–91 77–92 75–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 84 44% 79–90 78–91 77–92 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 44% 78–89 77–90 76–91 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 2% 73–83 71–84 71–84 68–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 71 0% 66–77 65–78 64–79 62–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 65–76 64–78 62–79 61–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 67 0% 62–71 61–73 60–75 58–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 66 0% 61–70 60–72 59–73 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 61–71 60–72 59–72 57–74
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 53 0% 48–58 48–60 47–61 45–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 47 0% 44–52 42–53 42–54 40–55
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 37 0% 31–41 30–43 29–44 27–46

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.8% 99.7%  
94 0.8% 98.9%  
95 2% 98%  
96 2% 96%  
97 2% 93%  
98 6% 91%  
99 9% 85%  
100 17% 76% Median
101 7% 59%  
102 15% 52%  
103 6% 37%  
104 10% 31%  
105 9% 21%  
106 4% 12%  
107 2% 8% Last Result
108 3% 6%  
109 1.1% 3%  
110 2% 2%  
111 0.2% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.8%  
88 0.4% 99.5%  
89 0.5% 99.1%  
90 3% 98.6%  
91 3% 96%  
92 5% 93%  
93 5% 88%  
94 2% 83%  
95 8% 81%  
96 5% 73%  
97 12% 68%  
98 10% 57% Median
99 17% 47%  
100 7% 30%  
101 6% 23%  
102 4% 17%  
103 7% 13%  
104 3% 6%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.5% 1.2%  
107 0.6% 0.8%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.5% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.4%  
87 1.1% 99.2%  
88 0.8% 98% Last Result
89 2% 97%  
90 4% 95%  
91 5% 91%  
92 10% 86%  
93 11% 75% Median
94 7% 64%  
95 5% 57%  
96 5% 52%  
97 11% 47%  
98 13% 36%  
99 10% 23%  
100 4% 13%  
101 4% 8%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.5% 3%  
104 0.6% 1.5%  
105 0.5% 0.9%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.6%  
82 0.5% 99.2%  
83 3% 98.6%  
84 2% 96%  
85 3% 93% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 4% 87%  
88 4% 83%  
89 8% 79%  
90 14% 71% Median
91 14% 57%  
92 8% 43%  
93 9% 34%  
94 7% 25%  
95 9% 19%  
96 4% 10%  
97 4% 6%  
98 1.4% 3%  
99 0.7% 1.4%  
100 0.3% 0.8%  
101 0.3% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.9% 99.5%  
76 0.7% 98.6%  
77 1.4% 98%  
78 5% 97%  
79 4% 92%  
80 4% 88% Last Result
81 6% 84%  
82 4% 78%  
83 11% 73%  
84 7% 63%  
85 11% 56% Median, Majority
86 12% 45%  
87 8% 33%  
88 8% 25%  
89 5% 18%  
90 6% 13%  
91 4% 7%  
92 1.5% 3%  
93 0.7% 1.4%  
94 0.4% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 0.7% 99.3%  
77 1.5% 98.6%  
78 4% 97%  
79 6% 93%  
80 5% 87%  
81 8% 82%  
82 8% 75%  
83 12% 67% Median
84 11% 55%  
85 7% 44% Majority
86 11% 37%  
87 4% 27%  
88 6% 22%  
89 4% 16% Last Result
90 4% 12%  
91 5% 8%  
92 1.4% 3%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.9% 1.4%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.7% 99.8%  
75 0.7% 99.1%  
76 3% 98%  
77 2% 96% Last Result
78 5% 94%  
79 6% 89%  
80 5% 83%  
81 8% 78% Median
82 10% 70%  
83 12% 60%  
84 5% 48%  
85 14% 44% Majority
86 5% 29%  
87 8% 24%  
88 5% 16%  
89 5% 12%  
90 3% 7%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.2%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.7%  
69 0.5% 99.2%  
70 1.1% 98.7%  
71 3% 98%  
72 3% 94%  
73 3% 91%  
74 4% 88%  
75 9% 84%  
76 7% 75%  
77 12% 68% Median
78 14% 56%  
79 8% 42% Last Result
80 9% 34%  
81 8% 25%  
82 7% 17%  
83 4% 10%  
84 4% 6%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.3%  
87 0.6% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.2%  
64 2% 98.8%  
65 3% 97%  
66 7% 94%  
67 4% 87%  
68 6% 83%  
69 7% 77%  
70 17% 70% Median
71 10% 53%  
72 12% 43%  
73 5% 32%  
74 8% 27%  
75 2% 19%  
76 5% 17%  
77 5% 12%  
78 3% 7%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.5% 1.4%  
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.7%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 0.6% 97%  
64 6% 96%  
65 3% 90%  
66 4% 87%  
67 6% 83%  
68 6% 77% Median
69 13% 71%  
70 7% 59%  
71 13% 51%  
72 9% 38%  
73 7% 29%  
74 7% 22%  
75 3% 16%  
76 3% 12% Last Result
77 3% 9%  
78 4% 6%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.8% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.5%  
59 1.2% 99.3%  
60 2% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 5% 94%  
63 16% 89%  
64 7% 73%  
65 4% 66%  
66 8% 61%  
67 6% 53% Median
68 14% 48%  
69 11% 33%  
70 7% 22%  
71 7% 15%  
72 3% 9%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.1% 4%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 1.2% 99.1%  
59 3% 98%  
60 2% 95%  
61 8% 94%  
62 14% 85%  
63 7% 71%  
64 7% 64%  
65 5% 58%  
66 6% 52% Median
67 12% 46%  
68 14% 34%  
69 8% 20%  
70 4% 12%  
71 3% 8%  
72 2% 5% Last Result
73 0.8% 3%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 1.2% 99.2%  
59 3% 98%  
60 4% 95%  
61 7% 91%  
62 3% 84%  
63 6% 81%  
64 11% 76%  
65 7% 65% Median
66 11% 58%  
67 13% 47%  
68 7% 34% Last Result
69 8% 26%  
70 4% 18%  
71 8% 14%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.1%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 1.1% 99.1%  
47 3% 98%  
48 8% 95%  
49 4% 87%  
50 5% 84%  
51 8% 78%  
52 20% 71% Median
53 7% 50%  
54 9% 43%  
55 9% 34%  
56 4% 25%  
57 7% 21%  
58 5% 13%  
59 2% 9%  
60 2% 7%  
61 3% 5% Last Result
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.8%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 1.2% 99.4%  
42 4% 98%  
43 2% 95%  
44 12% 92%  
45 7% 80%  
46 9% 73%  
47 20% 64% Median
48 11% 45%  
49 10% 33%  
50 7% 23%  
51 5% 16%  
52 3% 11%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.3% 1.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 1.2% 99.5%  
29 2% 98%  
30 3% 97%  
31 5% 94%  
32 10% 89%  
33 10% 79%  
34 5% 69% Median
35 3% 64% Last Result
36 8% 61%  
37 17% 53%  
38 4% 36%  
39 11% 31%  
40 8% 21%  
41 4% 13%  
42 2% 8%  
43 3% 6%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.4% 1.1%  
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations